Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of the People's Congress system and the need for high-quality development in Changsha's legislative work, highlighting the achievements and future focus areas for 2026 [1][3] - The meeting acknowledged the significant progress made in 2025, including breakthroughs in legislation, effective supervision, active representation, and improvements in the self-construction of the People's Congress [3] - The leadership stressed the necessity to align with national priorities, understand the complex external and internal challenges, and enhance proactive work strategies for the upcoming year [3] Group 2 - The focus for 2026 includes planning key tasks around the "14th Five-Year Plan" and ensuring the smooth organization of local elections at various levels [3] - Continuous improvement of the capabilities and self-construction of the People's Congress is essential, with an emphasis on political direction, public stance, and value orientation [3] - The leadership encourages a forward-looking approach, urging members to maintain enthusiasm and commitment to advancing the work of the People's Congress in Changsha [3]

2026年是"十五五"规划开局之年。国资央企如何统筹抓好改革发展等各项工作？日前举行的中央企 业负责人会议释放了新信号。 信号一：全力以赴稳经营、提质效 今年以来，国际环境变乱交织，中央企业顶住压力、经营稳中有进，1至11月实现增加值9.5万亿 元，同比增长1.4%。 新的一年，面对不确定难预料因素增多，中央企业怎么干？ 国务院国资委主任张玉卓在会上提出，中央企业要以抢抓市场拓展发展空间，要密切关注宏观形 势，加强行业运行结构性、趋势性分析，提升产供储销各环节的反应灵敏度；要通过强化管理来提高发 展质量，坚持向内挖潜，做好全面预算管理，加强全员、全要素、全生命周期成本管控。 今天的投资，就是明天的竞争力。2025年前11个月，央企完成固定资产投资（不含房地产）3.3万 亿元。 新的一年，国务院国资委要求中央企业继续"以有效投资积蓄发展潜力"，明确要求围绕产业链强基 补短、基础设施建设、能源资源保障、前瞻产业布局等重点领域，用好各类支持政策，靠前谋划实施一 批重大项目和标志性工程。 信号二：多措并举优布局、调结构 国有经济布局优化和结构调整，是做强做优做大国有资本和国有企业的内在要求。 "下一步，我们将以高质量 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that 2026 will focus on increasing consumption rates as a key strategy, with a shift in policy emphasis towards income-driven consumption [4][5] - The central economic work conference highlights the prominent contradiction of strong domestic supply versus weak demand, indicating the importance of consumption in the policy framework [4] - Policies to stimulate consumption will include measures such as promoting service consumption, improving the income mechanism, and addressing housing and education costs [5][6] Group 2 - Monetary policy has room for further easing, with potential structural tools focusing on service consumption and technological innovation [6][9] - The bond market is expected to see a shift in supply-demand dynamics, with nominal growth rates influencing long-term bond yields [9][8] - The "Five Articles" initiative is anticipated to achieve breakthroughs in technology and inclusive finance, with a focus on supporting innovation and enhancing employment security [10] Group 3 - The RMB is expected to appreciate moderately in 2026, supported by external factors such as the US interest rate cycle and internal economic stability [7][11] - The gold market is projected to experience increased volatility, driven by expectations of weakened dollar credit and geopolitical risks [11][12] - The strategies of "internal circulation" and "high-level opening" are seen as mutually supportive, enhancing domestic demand while expanding international trade [13]

北向资金持仓市值连续三个季度增长正在印证这份信心。业内普遍认为，2026年中国"慢牛"行情将持 续。在今年强劲表现之后，中国股市的估值仍低于全球同类市场，也远低于历史高点，估值具有上调潜 力。其中，中国科技股被视为全球股市中具有高确信度的板块。 看好中国经济，2027年底中国股市将上涨38% 日前，高盛发布的一则研报《2025年中国股市十大经验总结》引起市场关注。 报告指出，中国股市已实现连续两年上涨，牛市行情有望持续，只是步伐会放缓。"我们预测，到2027 年底中国股市将上涨38%，受到2026年和2027年分别为14%和12%的盈利增长以及约10%的估值修复潜 力的推动。" 2025年即将收官，2026年的中国机遇可期。 新京报贝壳财经记者梳理多家外资机构研报时发现，"把握中国机遇""将继续增持中国资产""超额回 报"等频繁出现。这些机构整体对中国2026年的市场前景保持乐观，并预测到2027年底中国股市有望上 涨38%。 在众多投资方向中，中国科技股成为外资机构一致看好的核心赛道。 瑞银明确呼吁投资者"把握中国机遇"，并指出，人工智能（AI）创新和相关支出，预计将推动中国科技 行业2026年盈利大幅增长 ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, the manufacturing and energy-chemical industries will enter a rebalancing phase under multiple structural pressures, with geopolitical changes and trade rules reshaping global layouts. The focus will shift from "betting on growth" to "realizing value" as companies seek sustainable returns through asset optimization, capability restructuring, and operational upgrades [1]. Group 1: Manufacturing "15th Five-Year" Layout - The "15th Five-Year" plan (2026-2030) is a critical period for China's modernization by 2035, emphasizing the need for manufacturing enterprises to anticipate socio-economic and technological trends, plan high-quality development paths, and enhance international competitiveness amid geopolitical tensions [4]. Group 2: Asset Operation Restructuring - Energy and chemical companies must optimize asset layouts through normative analysis to enhance long-term decision-making certainty and return rates, particularly in the context of geopolitical and demand structure changes [7]. Group 3: Digital Transformation - Oil and gas companies face limitations in AI potential due to data quality and system fragmentation. Establishing a high-quality data foundation and governance mechanisms is essential to unlock the value of AI and digitalization in supply chain and operational transformations [9]. Group 4: Chemical M&A Recovery - The chemical industry is witnessing a gradual recovery in M&A activities, driven by overcapacity, weak demand, and tariff uncertainties. Companies and private equity are seeking growth paths through portfolio restructuring and regional diversification [11]. Group 5: Accelerated Power M&A - The demand for large data centers is driving a new wave of M&A in the U.S. power sector, compelling power companies to enhance scale, delivery capabilities, and clean energy supply to compete for core customers [13]. Group 6: Electrification Investment Decisions - The electrification trend brings substantial capital investments, but profitability is not guaranteed. Investment returns depend on asset utilization rates, contract structures, and service models, necessitating a careful balance between infrastructure and digital platforms [15]. Group 7: Renewable Value Realignment - The renewable energy sector is transitioning from a narrative of rapid growth to one focused on capability and return realization. Factors such as subsidy reductions, grid constraints, and rising capital costs are pushing companies to reshape their competitive edge through market-oriented capabilities [17]. Group 8: CCUS Commercial Breakthrough - Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) is emerging as a viable decarbonization pathway in high-emission industries, but its adoption is constrained by economic viability and carbon pricing mechanisms. Innovative business models and policy collaboration are crucial for large-scale implementation [19]. Group 9: Industrial Aftermarket Opportunities - The industrial aftermarket is becoming a significant profit engine for OEMs, with growth rates of 7.8% in China and 6.5% globally. Companies can achieve steady and high-quality growth through network expansion, complexity management, and pricing capability upgrades [21]. Group 10: CBAM Cost Restructuring - The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is reshaping competitive rules in high-carbon industries like steel. Importers need to proactively manage emissions accounting, supply chain adjustments, and cost transfer mechanisms to mitigate the impacts of visible carbon costs [23]. Group 11: Infrastructure Innovation - Modern construction methods (MMC) are significantly enhancing efficiency, sustainability, and resilience in the global construction industry. Despite higher initial investments, the long-term value of MMC is becoming evident in global capital projects [25].

来源：中国汽车报 打造智能网联新能源汽车高地、构建以汽车为核心的跨领域产业集群、清理汽车消费不合理限制性措 施、为汽车"出海"保驾护航……截至目前，围绕《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年 规划的建议》提出的主要目标和战略任务，大部分省市地区发布了各自的"十五五"规划，其中不少省市 地区将汽车产业作为"十五五"时期的发展重点。 "在'十五五'新的历史征程即将开启之际，多地'十五五'规划中对汽车产业予以重点部署，反映了地方对 发展汽车产业的信心和决心。"中国汽车工程学会名誉理事长、华汽汽车文化基金会理事长付于武在接 受《中国汽车报》记者采访时表示，"十五五"时期是我国由汽车大国向汽车强国转变的关键时期，只有 各地齐心协力，才能为我国汽车产业转型跃迁增添更多动力。 推动智能网联新能源汽车产业升级 中国汽车工业协会发布的最新数据显示，2025年1～11月，我国新能源汽车销量1246.6万辆，同比增长 23.2％。其中，新能源乘用车销量1171.5万辆，同比增长21.3％。产业的持续快速增长，使各地对发展 智能网联新能源汽车产业信心倍增。围绕智能网联新能源汽车产业转型升级、加快基础设施建设、进行 全链条部 ...

Economic Outlook - The Chinese economy is expected to grow at a rate of 4.8%, characterized by stable external demand, improved internal demand, and price recovery [2] - Export growth is projected to reach 5%, driven by a marginal easing of international trade tensions and the resilience of China's industrial chain [2] - Retail sales are anticipated to rise to 4.5%, supported by strong consumer policies [2] - Fixed asset investment growth is expected to recover to 1.8%, bolstered by increased fiscal spending and the initiation of major projects [2] - Infrastructure and manufacturing investment growth rates are projected at 6.5% and 4.6%, respectively, while real estate investment is expected to decline by 13.6% [2] Fiscal Policy - Fiscal policy is set to be more proactive, with a target deficit rate maintained at 4.0%, corresponding to a deficit scale of 5.85 trillion [3] - The broad deficit rate is expected to rise to 9.7%, with total fiscal arrangements increasing by 1.6 trillion to 43 trillion [3] - The structure of fiscal spending will focus on "investing in people," optimizing tax structures, and enhancing fiscal sustainability [3] Monetary Policy - Monetary policy is expected to be moderately accommodative, balancing long-term and short-term growth with risk prevention [3] - The OMO rate may be reduced by 10 basis points to 1.3%, and a reserve requirement ratio cut of 50 basis points is anticipated [3] Capital Markets - The domestic stock market is expected to grow, driven by improved liquidity and corporate performance, while the bond market may experience fluctuations [4] - The 10-year government bond yield is projected to rise slightly to 1.8%, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield may decrease to 4.0% [4] Foreign Trade - China's exports are expected to maintain resilient growth, with a projected annual growth rate of 5.0% for 2026 [22] - The trade surplus is anticipated to remain high, although its contribution to GDP growth may weaken compared to 2025 [28] Consumption - Retail sales growth is expected to shift from being policy-driven to being led by service consumption and structural recovery, with an anticipated growth rate of 4.5% for 2026 [49] - Service consumption is projected to become a major support force, while durable goods may show signs of demand exhaustion [50] Investment - Real estate investment is expected to decline by 13.6%, with sales volume and value significantly reduced compared to previous years [66] - Infrastructure investment growth is projected to rise to 6.5% in 2026, with a focus on enhancing the quality and efficiency of investments [81] - Manufacturing investment is expected to recover, with a projected growth rate of 4.6% for 2026, supported by improved external demand and policy incentives [95]

文/中央政策研究室副主任 唐方裕 调动全社会投身中国式现代化建设的积极性主动性创造性，是落实"十五 五"规划的关键。人民群众是历史的创造者，是实现社会变革的决定性力 量。我们党根基在人民、血脉在人民、力量在人民，只有坚持以人民为中 心，汇聚起人民群众的磅礴力量，才能把党的事业顺利推向前进。 党的二十届四中全会通过的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（以下简称《建议》）61条中最后一条， 强调"充分调动全社会投身中国式现代化建设的积极性主动性创造性"，要求"按照本次全会精神，制定国家和地方'十五五'规划纲要及专项 规划等，形成定位准确、边界清晰、功能互补、统一衔接的国家规划体系"；"强化规划实施监测评估和监督，健全政策协调和工作协同机 制，确保党中央决策部署落到实处"；"贯彻尊重劳动、尊重知识、尊重人才、尊重创造的方针，激发全社会干事创业、创新创造活力，形成 人尽其才、才尽其用、万众一心、勠力进取的生动局面"。对这些要求，应当深刻理解、全面落实。 人民群众是历史的创造者，是实现社会变革的决定性力量。我们党根基在人民、血脉在人民、力量在人民，只有坚持以人民为中心，汇聚 起人民群众的磅礴力 ...

Core Insights - The event focused on "Resilient Growth and Value Coexistence" and aimed to discuss new paths for capital markets to empower corporate innovation and development [1] - Li Ya, a seasoned capital practitioner, emphasized the symbiotic relationship between capital and innovation, which is crucial for a company's listing and long-term growth [1] Group 1: Innovation Capability - Companies must have strategic determination, placing innovation at the core of their development [3] - An open mindset is essential, connecting with high-end technology resources and engaging with frontline markets and employees [3] - Companies need to cultivate execution resilience to address financial pressures and various obstacles during the innovation process [3] Group 2: Capital Services Role - Li Ya highlighted the characteristics of a "capital partner" in the new era, advocating for long-term commitment and deep involvement with companies [4] - The company has been supporting 13 pre-IPO firms, providing not just funding but also integrating various resources to empower industrial development [4] - Quality capital should act as a strategic partner, value discoverer, and risk sharer, becoming a co-builder of innovation [4] Group 3: Development Opportunities - Companies should enhance policy sensitivity to seize resource opportunities and capitalize on policy dividends through mergers, acquisitions, and joint incubation [4] - Capital providers need to align with national industrial policy directions, focusing on quality sectors and companies to support innovation-driven development [4] - Li Ya's insights provide a practical framework for the collaboration between capital markets and real industries, guiding companies to seize opportunities during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [4]

新华社北京12月24日电（田翔宇、李妍）国务院台办发言人彭庆恩24日在例行新闻发布会上应询表示， 我们将一如既往积极支持两岸产业合作，不断完善促进两岸经济文化交流合作的制度和政策、深化两岸 融合发展，帮助广大台商台企把握"十五五"发展机遇，助力台商台企在大陆更好发展。 有记者问：近日，2025两岸企业家峰会年会在南京举行，受到广泛关注。与会两岸工商界人士围绕把 握"十五五"机遇、深化两岸产业链供应链融合发展等议题深入交流，一致认为"十五五"规划实施将为两 岸经济合作开辟更广阔空间。对此有何评论？彭庆恩答问时作上述表示。 彭庆恩表示，本次峰会年会是在大陆即将进入"十五五"规划开局之年召开的一次两岸企业界交流合作盛 会，对台商台企把握"十五五"规划制定实施的时代机遇，加快融入新发展格局、参与高质量发展，深化 两岸产业链供应链融合发展，具有重要意义。中共中央政治局常委、全国政协主席王沪宁在年会致辞表 示，中共二十届四中全会对"十五五"时期发展作出顶层设计和战略擘画，必将为推动两岸经济合作和共 同发展注入新动力，为推动两岸关系和平发展、推进祖国统一大业开辟新前景。希望广大台胞台企更好 为共同壮大中华民族经济、共同创造 ...