德国8月消费者信心意外回落 储蓄意愿升至一年半新高 金十数据7月24日讯，周四公布的调查显示，在经济持续不确定的背景下，德国家庭支出意愿进一步萎 缩，德国8月Gfk消费者信心指数从7月的-20.3点意外降至-21.5点，市场预期将微升至-19.2点。纽伦堡市 场决策研究所（NIM）消费者分析师罗尔夫·布尔克指出："消费者信心复苏一再推迟，储蓄意愿再度攀 升"，目前已达到近一年半来的最高水平。他补充称："普遍不确定性、对困难局面的预防性需求，尤其 是食品等商品的高价格是主要原因。" ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported net income of $194 million or $1.92 per diluted share, up from $1.86 a year ago [22] - Adjusted net income was $204 million or $2.20 per diluted share, up from $1.97 a year ago [22] - Home closings revenue increased 2% to approximately $2 billion, with an average closing price of $589,000, slightly ahead of prior guidance [22][24] - The adjusted home closings gross margin was 23%, in line with prior guidance, while the home closings gross margin was 22.3% [25][24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company delivered 3,340 homes, with 65% of closings coming from spec homes, up from 58% in the prior quarter [22][24] - The share of spec sales increased to a new high of 71%, including 50% in the Esplanade segment [12] - The second quarter orders consisted of 33% entry-level, 50% move-up, and 17% resort lifestyle homes [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The overall cancellation rate was 14.6% of gross orders, up from 9.4% a year ago, reflecting changes in consumer confidence [26] - The average credit score for buyers using Taylor Morrison home funding was 751, with a down payment of 22% and household income of $188,000 [29] - The company controlled 85,051 homebuilding lots, representing 6.4 years of supply [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company emphasizes a balanced portfolio of to-be-built and spec homes, primarily in attractive core submarkets [11] - The strategy includes prioritizing capital efficiency and returns over volume in a competitive marketplace [14] - The company plans to continue expanding its Esplanade brand, which has shown resilience in sales [14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the sales environment has been softer than normal due to various economic factors, but they expect a more patient growth trajectory [7][14] - The company believes that the need for affordable new construction remains intact across its markets [14] - Management expressed confidence in their ability to generate mid to high teen returns on equity throughout the cycle [15] Other Important Information - The company has invested approximately $612 million in homebuilding land during the quarter, with a total anticipated investment of around $2.4 billion for the year [17] - The company ended the quarter with liquidity of approximately $1.1 billion, including $130 million of unrestricted cash [29] - The company repurchased 1.7 million shares for $100 million during the quarter, with a remaining repurchase authorization of $675 million [30] Q&A Session Summary Question: Spec mix in the quarter - Management indicated that the increase in spec sales was driven by consumer preferences for inventory homes due to the current incentive environment [34][38] Question: Gross margin expectations - Management expects Q3 gross margin to be around 22%, with Q4 expected to be approximately 22% as well [44][45] Question: $3 billion facility with Kennedy Lewis - The facility is intended to provide balance sheet relief and greater optionality for asset disposition, with both current and prospective assets being considered [50][54] Question: Growth expectations for 2026 - Management has not provided specific guidance for 2026 but expects growth in the coming years, contingent on market conditions [60][62] Question: Cancellation rates - Management noted that cancellations were primarily due to buyers unable to sell their existing homes, but overall rates remain below industry averages [96][98]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported net income of $194 million or $1.92 per diluted share, up from $1.86 a year ago [21] - Adjusted net income was $204 million or $2.20 per diluted share, up from $1.97 a year ago [21] - Home closings revenue increased 2% to approximately $2 billion, with a 2% decline in average closing price to $589,000 [22] - The adjusted home closings gross margin was 23%, in line with prior guidance, while the overall gross margin was 22.3% [24][25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company delivered 3,340 homes, with 71% of sales coming from spec homes, an increase from 58% in the prior quarter [21][11] - The share of closings from specs increased from 59% a year ago [21] - The second quarter orders consisted of 33% entry-level, 50% move-up, and 17% resort lifestyle [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The overall cancellation rate was 14.6% of gross orders, up from 9.4% a year ago, reflecting a change in consumer confidence [26] - The average credit score among buyers using Taylor Morrison home funding was 751, with a down payment of 22% and household income of $188,000 [28] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company emphasizes a balanced portfolio of to-be-built and spec homes, primarily in attractive core submarkets [10] - The strategy includes prioritizing capital efficiency and returns over volume in a competitive marketplace [13] - The company plans to continue expanding its Esplanade brand, which has shown resilience in sales [13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the sales environment has been impacted by consumer confidence, with buyers prioritizing deals and incentives [66] - The company expects to maintain a higher concentration of spec homes in the near term due to consumer preferences [35] - Management believes the need for affordable new construction remains intact across markets, despite current headwinds [13] Other Important Information - The company has a liquidity of approximately $1.1 billion, including $130 million of unrestricted cash [28] - The company repurchased 1.7 million shares for $100 million during the quarter, with a remaining repurchase authorization of $675 million [29] Q&A Session Summary Question: Spec mix in the quarter - Management indicated that the increase in spec sales was driven by consumer preferences for inventory homes and the current market environment [35][36] Question: Gross margin expectations - Management expects Q3 gross margin to be around 22%, with Q4 expected to be approximately 22% as well [43] Question: $3 billion facility with Kennedy Lewis - The facility is intended to provide balance sheet relief and greater optionality for asset disposition, serving both existing and new acquisitions [48][51] Question: Absorption pace and market conditions - Management noted that the absorption pace is influenced by consumer confidence and market conditions, with expectations for a stable pace in the near term [66][82] Question: Cancellation rates - Cancellations were noted to be higher due to various factors, including buyers finding better deals elsewhere, but overall rates remain below industry averages [94][95]

Economic Overview - In July, economic prices increased while volumes decreased, indicating a search for rebalancing in supply and demand, with marginal economic growth expected to slow down[1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a month-on-month increase, with the year-on-year decline in growth narrowing, primarily driven by the "anti-involution" policy expectations[1][45] Real Estate Market - The sales sentiment in the real estate market weakened, with both month-on-month and year-on-year growth turning negative; the average daily transaction area in 30 major cities decreased by 15.85% compared to June[2][11] - It is anticipated that first-tier city housing prices may stabilize by the end of the year, while second-tier cities may see stabilization by June next year[2][48] Industrial Demand - Industrial demand showed a mild recovery, with the rebar production rate increasing to 43.06%, up 0.87 percentage points from June, while prices slightly decreased by 0.16%[15] - The average operating rate for asphalt plants rose to 32.4%, indicating a recovery in demand, with asphalt inventory decreasing by 7.31%[18] Consumer Behavior - July consumer spending is expected to remain resilient, supported by a surge in tourism during the summer, with domestic tourism projected to exceed 2.5 billion trips, recovering to over 115% of 2019 levels[26] - The average daily subway ridership in major cities increased, reflecting a rebound in travel demand during the summer[23] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include unexpected intensification of global trade frictions, geopolitical conflicts, and policy effects falling short of expectations[3]

Market Overview - International gold prices experienced fluctuations, opening at $3336.75 per ounce, reaching a high of $3361.20, a low of $3331.80, and closing at $3353.67 on July 18 [1] Economic Indicators - The preliminary consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for July recorded at 61.8, surpassing market expectations of 61.5 and the previous value of 60.7 [2] - Consumer confidence showed a slight increase of about 1 point compared to June, but remains approximately 16% lower than December 2024 and significantly below historical averages [2] - Inflation expectations for the next year decreased for the second consecutive month from 5.0% to 4.4%, while long-term inflation expectations fell from 4.0% in June to 3.6% in July, marking the lowest levels since February 2025 [2] Political Developments - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin privately advised President Trump against attempting to dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, citing potential economic and market impacts, as well as political and legal challenges [3] - Mnuchin noted that the economy is performing well and that the market is responding positively to presidential policies, with indications from Fed officials suggesting possible rate cuts later in the year [3] - Trump publicly dismissed concerns about the negative market impact of dismissing Powell, asserting his understanding of market dynamics and claiming credit for the stock market's performance [5] Trade Relations - U.S. Commerce Secretary Ross expressed confidence in reaching an agreement with the EU and indicated that Trump is likely to renegotiate the USMCA [6] - Reports suggest that the EU is preparing for potential "no-deal" scenarios in trade negotiations with the U.S., with discussions ongoing but lacking significant progress [6] Geopolitical Tensions - Internal discussions within the White House have intensified regarding Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's actions in Syria, with officials expressing concerns about his aggressive military strategies [7] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions are closely monitored, with a 95.3% probability of maintaining rates in July and a 58% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September [7] Technical Analysis - Gold prices are expected to maintain a volatile trading pattern, with short-term indicators suggesting a bullish trend despite recent fluctuations [9] - Trading strategies include aggressive and conservative entry points for both long and short positions, with specific stop-loss and profit target levels outlined [10]

当地时间周五，美股三大指数涨跌不一，标普500指数跌0.01%，报6296.79点，纳斯达克综合指数涨 0.05%，报20895.66点，再创历史新高，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌0.32%，报44342.19点。中概股冲高 回落，纳斯达克中国金龙指数开盘后一度涨超2%，截至收盘上涨0.6%。 消息面上，据俄罗斯卫星社7月17日报道，美国总统特朗普表示，准备对150个经济体量不大的国家商品 征收10%至15%的关税。此外，7月美国消费者信心指数升至近5个月高点。 另外，"爱泼斯坦案"持续升温。当地时间7月18日，特朗普在其社交媒体"真实社交"发文称，"爱泼斯坦 案"没有确凿证据。他对新闻集团、道琼斯公司、传媒大亨鲁珀特·默多克及两名《华尔街日报》记者提起 诽谤诉讼。目前起诉文件尚未公开。 美股高位震荡，中概股集体走强 特朗普就"爱泼斯坦案"提起诉讼。 此前在4月2日，特朗普曾签署行政令，对进口自其他国家的商品征收所谓"对等关税"，最低基准税率为 10%。但4月9日，特朗普宣布暂停征收关税90天。7月9日，关税暂缓期结束前夕，特朗普又将暂缓期延 长至8月1日。 据美联社7月17日报道，美联社与NORC公共事务研究中心 ...

【导读】美股震荡，中国资产大涨 大家周末好，今晚美股下跌，中概股集体大涨！ 美股震荡 7月18日晚间，美股三大指数走势震荡，道琼斯指数下跌100点，纳斯达克指数以及标普500指数基本持平。 周五公布的数据显示，消费者对关税引发的通胀担忧降至2月以来的最低水平。密歇根大学7月消费者调查显示，整体消费者信心指数环比6月上升 1.8%，达到61.8，符合预期并创下自2月以来最高水平。 消费者预计未来一年物价年涨幅为4.4%，低于上月的5%，为2月以来最低水平；对未来5至10年的通胀预期也降至3.6%，同样是五个月以来的最低值。 不过，对关税的担忧仍在限制消费者对经济前景的乐观情绪。 该项调查的负责人Joanne Hsu在声明中表示："消费者对商业环境、劳动力市场，甚至自身收入的预期，仍然弱于一年前。尽管如此，过去两个月消费 者信心的回升表明，他们认为4月和5月曾预期的最坏情况的风险有所缓解。" 消费者对个人当前财务状况的评价有所上升，这可能受到股市上涨的推动。此次调查于7月14日结束，即美国总统特朗普签署预算法案、延长减税政策 并为小费行业工人新增减税优惠逾一周之后。 不过，Hsu指出，如果宣布加征更多关税或通胀回 ...

周五公布的密歇根大学7月份的报告显示，美国7月密歇根大学消费者信心反弹，在7月初升至五个月来的最高水平，人们对经济和通胀的预期持续改善，通 胀预期也显著回落。 美国7月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值61.8，预期61.5，前值60.7。尽管如此，该消费者信心指数仍低于去年全年水平。 分项指数方面，7月密歇根大学消费者的现况指数初值66.8，预期63.9，前值64.8，改善明显；预期指数初值58.6，预期56.9，前值58.1。 不过，如果宣布进一步加征关税或通胀回升，消费者信心可能会受到抑制。 消费者对当前个人财务状况的看法有所改善，可能受益于美国股市的反弹。此次调查于7月14日结束，距美国总统特朗普签署预算案已有一周多时间，该预 算案包括延长减税并为打工小费收入者提供新减免。 此次消费者信心回升主要受到共和党人和政治独立人士信心改善的推动。 消费者信心影响着未来几个月的经济增长。悲观的消费者情绪会抑制支出水平、从而影响经济复苏，乐观的消费者情绪则有助于未来经济。 （文章来源：华尔街见闻） 市场备受关注的通胀预期方面，7月密歇根大学1年通胀预期初值4.4%，为2月以来的最低，低于预期的5%，前值为5%；5年通胀 ...

Friday, July 18, 2025Pre-market futures are up again as a very eventful trading week winds to a close. The Dow is currently +0.12%, the S&P 500 is +0.09% and the Nasdaq +0.16% at this hour. The small-cap Russell 2000 is shooting to another orbit this morning, +0.52%. It now leads all major indexes for the past week of trading, as it still tries to catch up with the other indexes year to date.Bond yields have remained fairly steady through a thorough barrage of economic reports Q2 earnings releases, and open ...

金十数据7月18日讯，密歇根大学消费者调查主任Joanne Hsu表示，美国消费者信心与6月相比变化不 大，小幅上升约1个点至61.8。尽管该指数创下五个月新高，但仍比2024年12月低约16%，且远低于历 史平均水平。除非消费者确信通胀不太可能恶化，例如贸易政策在可预见的未来趋于稳定，否则他们不 太可能重新恢复对经济的信心。目前的访谈结果几乎没有显示其他政策变化（包括最近通过的税收和支 出法案）对消费者信心产生明显影响。对未来一年的通胀预期连续第二个月下降，从上月的5.0%跌至 本月的4.4%。长期通胀预期连续第三个月回落，从6月份的4.0%回落至7月份的3.6%。这两个指数都是 自2025年2月以来的最低水平，但仍高于2024年12月，这表明消费者仍然认为未来通胀将上升的风险很 大。 美国7月消费者信心变化不大 通胀预期连续回落 ...