2025年12月08日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：降息预期回升 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡回落 | 2 | | 铜：风险情绪较高，支撑价格 | 4 | | 锌：关注供应端扰动 | 6 | | 铅：库存减少，支撑价格 | 8 | | 锡：供应再出扰动 | 9 | | 铝：重心上移 | 11 | | 氧化铝：继续承压 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：上行动力不足 | 11 | | 铂：继续震荡 | 13 | | 钯：窄幅波动 | 13 | | 镍：结构性过剩转变，博弈矛盾并未改变 | 15 | | 不锈钢：供需延续双弱运行，成本支撑逻辑增强 | 15 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 8 日 黄金：降息预期回升 白银：震荡回落 业 服 务 研 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金2512 | | 961 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. Core Views - The report provides trend outlooks for various commodities, such as gold with rising rate - cut expectations, silver in a downward - oscillating trend, and copper supported by high risk sentiment [2]. - It also presents detailed fundamental data and market news for each commodity to assist investors in making decisions. Summary of Each Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Rate - cut expectations are rising. The prices of domestic and international gold contracts show different trends, and the central bank has been increasing its gold holdings for 13 consecutive months [2][6][9]. - **Silver**: It is in an oscillating decline. There are changes in the prices and trading volumes of domestic and international silver contracts, and the ETF holdings have decreased [2][6]. - **Platinum**: It continues to oscillate. The prices of different platinum contracts and related spreads have changed [26]. - **Palladium**: It fluctuates in a narrow range. The prices of different palladium contracts and related spreads have changed [26]. Base Metals - **Copper**: High risk sentiment supports the price. There are changes in the prices, trading volumes, and inventories of copper contracts, and some copper - related companies have production and export news [2][10][12]. - **Zinc**: Attention should be paid to the supply - side disturbances. The prices and trading volumes of zinc contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the market [13][14]. - **Lead**: The decrease in inventory supports the price. The prices and trading volumes of lead contracts have changed, and there is relevant macro - economic news [16][17]. - **Tin**: There are new supply disturbances. The prices and trading volumes of tin contracts have changed, and there is relevant macro - economic news [19][21]. - **Aluminum**: The center of gravity moves up. The prices, trading volumes, and inventories of aluminum, alumina, and casting aluminum alloy contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the market [23][25]. - **Nickel**: The structural surplus has changed, but the game contradictions remain unchanged. There are changes in the prices, trading volumes, and related industrial chain data of nickel and stainless steel contracts, and there are relevant news about the industry [30][33]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: It oscillates weakly, and attention should be paid to the development of the Nigerian mine - shutdown event. The prices, trading volumes, and related industrial chain data of carbonate lithium contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [35][36]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Attention should be paid to the development of the Xinjiang environmental - protection event. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of industrial silicon and polysilicon contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [38][39][41]. - **Polysilicon**: It is a core target for anti - involution, and the idea of buying at low price is recommended. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of polysilicon contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [39][41]. - **Iron Ore**: The downstream demand space is limited, and the valuation is high. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of iron ore contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [42]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The market has a long - short game and wide - range oscillation. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [46][47]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon**: Silicon ferrosilicon is affected by the factory - restart sentiment and has wide - range oscillation, while manganese silicon has a long - short sentiment game and wide - range oscillation. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of silicon ferrosilicon and manganese silicon contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [50][51][52]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: They have wide - range oscillation. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of coke and coking coal contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [54][55]. - **Log**: It oscillates at a low level. There is relevant news about the industry [56][59]. - **Para - Xylene**: It is in a high - level oscillating market supported by cost. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of para - xylene, PTA, and MEG contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [61][63][65]. - **PTA**: It is in a unilateral high - level oscillating market. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of PTA contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [61][63][66]. - **MEG**: The price hits a new low, and the trend is weak. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of MEG contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [61][63][66]. - **Rubber**: It oscillates. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of rubber contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [67][68][70]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It oscillates downward. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of synthetic rubber contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [71][72][73]. - **Asphalt**: The oil price rebounds, and it oscillates in a narrow range. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of asphalt contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [74][82][83]. - **LLDPE**: The basis weakens, and the upstream selling pressure continues to be released. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of LLDPE contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [84][85]. - **PP**: The medium - term trend still has pressure. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of PP contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [86][87][88]. - **Caustic Soda**: The trend still has pressure. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of caustic soda contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [90][91][92]. - **Pulp**: It oscillates. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of pulp contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [94][96][98]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of glass contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [99][100]. - **Methanol**: It runs under pressure. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of methanol contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [102][103][105]. - **Urea**: It oscillates downward. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of urea contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [107][108][110]. - **Styrene**: It oscillates in the short term. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of styrene contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [111][112]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of soda ash contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [114]. - **LPG**: The short - term demand is strong, but the medium - and long - term is still under pressure. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of LPG and propylene contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [116][120][121]. - **Propylene**: There is an expected increase in supply, and the upward driving force is limited. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of propylene contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [116][120][121]. - **PVC**: It oscillates at a low level. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of PVC contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [124][125][126]. - **Fuel Oil**: It oscillates in a narrow range and may temporarily get rid of the weak trend. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [127]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It rebounds at night, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to narrow. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of low - sulfur fuel oil contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [127]. Agricultural Products - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: It is in an oscillating market. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of container shipping index contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [129][138][139]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: They have medium - term pressure, and it is recommended to reduce the processing margin when the price is high. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of short - fiber and bottle - chip contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [140][141]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is recommended to wait and see. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of offset printing paper contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [143][144][146]. - **Pure Benzene**: It oscillates in the short term. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of pure benzene contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [148][149]. - **Palm Oil**: Wait for the confirmation of the inflection point and conduct range trading temporarily. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [151][152][158]. - **Soybean Oil**: Driven by US soybeans is insufficient, and it oscillates. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of soybean oil contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [151][152][158]. - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans close down, and Dalian soybean meal may follow a weak oscillation. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of soybean meal and soybean contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [160][161][163]. - **Soybean**: The market oscillates. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of soybean contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [160][161][163]. - **Corn**: Pay attention to the spot market. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of corn contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [164][165][167]. - **Sugar**: It runs weakly. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of sugar contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [168][169][171]. - **Cotton**: The upward trend slows down, and attention should be paid to downstream demand. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of cotton contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [173][174][176]. - **Egg**: The spot market oscillates. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of egg contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [177]. - **Live Pig**: The weakness continues, and the basis logic returns. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of live - pig contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [179][180][181]. - **Peanut**: Pay attention to the purchase of oil mills. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of peanut contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [183][184][187].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite a prolonged government shutdown, the U.S. is expected to achieve a 3% real GDP growth this year, reflecting optimism from the White House regarding the economic outlook [1][2] - The holiday shopping season is reported to be "very strong," indicating better-than-expected economic conditions [1] - The consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for December is at 53.3, which is a 28% decline compared to the same period last year, highlighting a disparity between economic growth and consumer sentiment [1][3] Group 2 - The U.S. economy has shown resilience with several quarters achieving 4% GDP growth, and the Atlanta Federal Reserve's latest forecast indicates a 3.5% annualized GDP growth for the third quarter [2] - Consumer spending, which accounts for nearly 70% of U.S. GDP, remains low despite the economic growth, as indicated by the consumer confidence index [3] - Recent inflation data shows a 3% year-over-year increase in consumer prices, with household food costs rising by 3.1%, further impacting consumer sentiment [3][4] Group 3 - Treasury Secretary Becerra attributes consumer concerns about affordability to media reports and emphasizes that the government is addressing inflation issues left by the previous administration [4] - Becerra expresses confidence that the U.S. will "move towards prosperity" in the coming year, despite current challenges [4]

Group 1 - New Zealand's economy is under dual pressure from a stagnant real estate market and weaker-than-expected government fiscal conditions, with the national median residential value remaining flat at 806,561 NZD in November, down 0.73% year-on-year [1][42] - The high-end real estate markets are showing signs of weakness, particularly in Auckland, where prices fell by 0.24% in November and have decreased by 2.20% year-to-date, while Queenstown's median price, exceeding 1.56 million NZD, dropped by 0.61% in November [1][42] - The New Zealand Treasury reported that core tax revenue for the first four months of the fiscal year was 39.5 billion NZD, 600 million NZD below expectations, primarily due to weaker corporate and personal tax revenues [43] Group 2 - The total expenditure of 48.5 billion NZD was only slightly above expectations by about 200 million NZD, but the operational deficit, excluding ACC, reached 4.9 billion NZD, exceeding the May budget forecast by approximately 700 million NZD [2][43] - The only positive aspect noted was that the government's net debt as a percentage of GDP was 42.8%, slightly lower than expected [2]

（来源：领盛Optivest） 基本面总结： 1．欧元区经济增速超过初值，主要得益于内需提振： 欧元区第三季度经济增速超过初值，得益于投资和消费提振。周五数据显示，产出较前三个月增长0.3%，增幅高于欧盟统计局0.2%的初步估计。净贸易 成为增长拖累因素。2025年下半年面对关税扰动，该地区经济展现出令人意外的韧性。稳健的劳动力市场支撑私人消费，而企业支出则受益于低借贷成 本。欧洲央行行长拉加德等官员认为，尽管地缘政治紧张局势持续带来不确定性，但经济前景的风险已趋于更加平衡。强劲的经济表现助力工资持续稳健 增长。另据数据显示，7月至9月期间人均薪酬同比增幅达4%，与前三个月增速持平。欧元区2025年第三季度就业人数同比增长0.6%，环比增长0.2%。 欧元区整体数据表现为欧洲央行暂停降息提供了充足依据和叙事观点支撑。欧洲央行官员近期的表态普遍暗示，他们对当前的利率水平感到满意，并认为 政策"基本中性"。会议纪要显示，强劲的宏观经济前景强化了市场对欧洲央行维持现有利率水平的信心，排除了短期内进一步降息的可能性。市场目前预 计欧洲央行将在未来几个月继续"按兵不动"，降息可能要等到2026年上半年才会恢复讨论。 2 ...

Core Insights - U.S. consumer spending stagnated in September, indicating that Americans began to control their expenditures in the face of persistent inflation before the government shutdown [1][3] - The report, originally scheduled for release on October 31, was delayed due to the government shutdown [3] Consumer Spending Data - Adjusted for inflation, consumer spending in September showed almost no change, with the August increase revised down to 0.2% [1][3] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.2% from August, with a year-over-year increase of 2.8% [4] Economic Context - The slowdown in consumer spending suggests that the primary growth engine of the U.S. economy was decelerating before the longest government shutdown began on October 1 [2][5] - Recent data indicates strong performance in Black Friday sales, but consumer concerns about the job market are rising, with spending primarily driven by wealthier households [2][5] - A separate report showed that consumer confidence from the University of Michigan rose for the first time in five months in early December, indicating improved optimism regarding personal financial prospects as inflation expectations improve [2][5]

Group 1 - The US stock market is experiencing significant volatility, nearing historical highs, but concerns over inflation and deteriorating consumer confidence are causing investor uncertainty ahead of the Federal Reserve's final policy meeting of the year [1] - Consumer confidence index has declined for three consecutive months, with over 40% of respondents expressing pessimism about the economic outlook for the next six months [3] - The ADP private sector employment report indicates a substantial drop in new job additions, with a 12% increase in job seekers and a slight rise in the unemployment rate, reigniting discussions about recession risks [3] Group 2 - Despite the negative consumer sentiment, retail performance shows resilience, with Dollar General reporting a 4.3% year-over-year increase in same-store sales, driven by strong demand for food and daily necessities [3] - High-end department store Macy's also reported strong holiday season pre-sale data, with luxury goods sales increasing by 7.1%, indicating that high-income consumers' spending power remains intact [3] - Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expect the overall PCE monthly rate for September to be 0.3%, with core PCE at 0.2%, and annual rates projected to hold at 2.9% for overall PCE and drop to 2.8% for core PCE [3]

Core Insights - The real estate market in major Canadian cities, including Toronto, Vancouver, and Calgary, is experiencing a significant downturn in both sales and prices, indicating a broader market adjustment [3][8][10] Group 1: Sales and Price Trends - In November 2025, the number of homes sold in the Greater Toronto Area through the MLS system was 5,010, a decrease of 15.8% compared to November 2024 [3] - The average home price in Toronto for November was CAD 1,039,458, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 6.4% [3] - The MLS Home Price Index composite benchmark also saw a decrease of 5.8% year-over-year, indicating a clear market adjustment [3] Group 2: Buyer Sentiment and Economic Indicators - Economic uncertainty is causing many Toronto buyers to adopt a wait-and-see approach, with a desire for more confidence in long-term employment prospects [5] - Positive economic signals have emerged, including the addition of 67,000 jobs in October and a drop in the unemployment rate to 6.9%, alongside a GDP growth of 2.6% in Q3 [5] - Analysts suggest that if trade uncertainties are resolved and infrastructure projects positively impact the economy, buyer confidence may improve [5] Group 3: National Market Trends - The cooling of the real estate market is not unique to Toronto; Vancouver and Calgary are also experiencing declines in sales and prices [8][10] - In November, Vancouver saw a 15.4% year-over-year decrease in home sales and a 3.9% drop in prices, while Calgary's sales fell by 13.4% [10] - The market is expected to stabilize by 2026 if the current positive economic momentum continues, potentially leading to increased consumer confidence and purchasing ability [8][10]

Core Viewpoint - The "Black Friday" and "Cyber Monday" shopping events in the UK have seen a shift in consumer behavior, with shoppers becoming more pragmatic and cautious due to economic uncertainties and high living costs [3][12]. Consumer Behavior - UK consumers are exhibiting a more rational approach to spending during this year's shopping events, with many adopting a wait-and-see attitude [3]. - There has been a 7.2% decline in foot traffic to physical stores compared to the same period last year, indicating a lack of consumer confidence [5]. - Consumers are increasingly skeptical about the authenticity of discounts, with many popular items not being offered at their lowest prices during "Black Friday" [5][7]. Discount Perception - A significant portion of consumers believes that discounts are not genuine, as prices may have been artificially inflated prior to the sales [7]. - Many consumers are waiting for better deals, as they perceive that prices have increased overall [8]. Spending Intentions - Despite the cautious spending, a considerable number of consumers still plan to purchase essential items or gifts during the promotional period, although 38% indicated they might not spend during "Black Friday" [10][12]. Overall Market Trend - The overall trend reflects a more practical and value-focused consumer mindset in the face of ongoing economic pressures, which is likely to shape future shopping behaviors [12].

新华社纽约11月30日电 记者手记｜美国"黑五"消费难掩经济隐忧 根据美国软件公司赛富时的数据，美国消费者今年"黑色星期五"的消费总额比去年增加3%，低于全球 当日线上销售6%的增幅。与此同时，由于价格上涨阻碍了线上需求，与去年相比，消费者购买的商品 反而减少了。 新华社记者刘亚南 经历美国关税政策频繁扰动，被视为美国消费"晴雨表"的感恩节假日零售数据备受关注。今年"黑色星 期五"购物日，记者在美国见证了经济下行压力下更挑剔的消费者、更昂贵的商品以及利润空间不断被 压缩的零售商。 近期，美国就业市场降温、高物价压力持续等因素严重打压消费者信心。美国劳工部日前公布数据显 示，美国9月失业率升至4.4%，为2021年11月以来最高水平。过去一周，与消费相关的负面消息接踵而 至。美国联邦储备委员会"褐皮书"显示，美国消费支出整体进一步下滑，关税导致制造业和零售业成本 普遍承压；世界大型企业研究会调查数据显示，美国11月消费者信心指数降至今年4月以来最低水平。 美国包装食品品牌卡夫亨氏公司首席执行官卡洛斯·艾布拉姆斯-里维拉表示，进入圣诞季，美国消费者 情绪处于几十年来"最糟糕的状态之一"。 更加精打细算，是美国消费 ...