Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook on the Southeast Asia consumer sector, indicating a general upward trend in consumer valuations across various markets [2][5]. Core Insights - Inflation rates have shown a decline in Indonesia, Thailand, and Singapore, while Vietnam continues to experience robust retail growth [3][4][25]. - Consumer confidence in Indonesia has slightly decreased, reflecting gradual adjustments rather than a sharp decline, with the index at 117.2 in August 2025 [17]. - The retail sales in Vietnam have demonstrated strong growth, with a year-on-year increase of 10.6% in August 2025 [39]. Economic Data Summary - **Indonesia**: The GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 was 5.1%, with manufacturing as a key driver [13]. The CPI in August 2025 increased by 2.31% year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in inflation across various categories [14]. - **Thailand**: The GDP growth for Q2 2025 was 2.8%, with a notable decline in the CPI by 0.79% in August, marking the lowest level since January 2024 [21][19]. - **Singapore**: The GDP growth for Q2 2025 was 4.3%, with the CPI falling to 0.5% in August, the lowest since January 2021 [28][25]. - **Vietnam**: The GDP growth rate for the first half of 2025 reached 7.52%, with a strong manufacturing sector contributing significantly [34]. Market Performance Summary - In August 2025, major market indices in Southeast Asia showed positive performance, with Vietnam's market rising by 12.5% [11][12]. - Consumer sectors in Indonesia outperformed the overall index, with essential and discretionary consumption rising by 14.9% and 15.7%, respectively [5][11]. - Valuation levels for consumer sectors have generally increased, with Indonesia's essential consumption PE at 2% and discretionary at 70% historical percentiles [5].

Group 1: Precious Metals Prices - International platinum prices surged, with London gold rising 0.29% to $3759.895 per ounce, London silver increasing 2.46% to $45.994 per ounce, marking a new high since May 2011, international palladium up 1.7% to $1305.3 per ounce, and international platinum up 3.61% to $1611.52 per ounce [1] Group 2: U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. core PCE price index for August showed a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, consistent with previous values, while the overall PCE price index rose 0.3% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 2.7% compared to 2.6% previously [2][4] - Personal income in August grew by $95.7 billion, a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, while personal consumption expenditure rose by $129.2 billion, a month-on-month increase of 0.6%, both exceeding prior expectations by 0.1 percentage points [4] Group 3: Consumer Confidence - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. fell to 55.1 in September, a decrease of about 5% from August, with the current economic conditions index dropping from 61.7 to 60.4, and the consumer expectations index falling from 55.9 to 51.7 [5] - Nearly 70% of U.S. consumers expect inflation to exceed income growth in the coming year, while about 65% anticipate an increase in unemployment rates [5] Group 4: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman emphasized the need for decisive and preemptive interest rate cuts to address worsening labor market issues [7][8] - Recent data indicates a significant increase in labor market vulnerability, prompting calls for immediate action to prevent further deterioration [8] - The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts has increased, with strong economic data complicating the outlook for potential rate reductions [10] Group 5: Gold Price Forecasts - Several institutions have raised their gold price forecasts, with JPMorgan predicting spot gold prices could exceed $4000 per ounce by Q1 2026, and Goldman Sachs maintaining a target of $3700 per ounce by the end of 2025 [11] - The potential impact of U.S. government shutdown risks and ongoing global central bank gold purchases are expected to support gold's long-term investment appeal [11]

当地时间9月26日，美股三大指数集体收涨，道指上涨299.97点，涨幅0.65%；纳指涨0.44%；标普500指数涨0.59%。 热门科技股多数上涨，英特尔涨超4%，微软、亚马逊涨幅不足1%，甲骨文跌超2%。金属与采矿、汽车股涨幅居前，世纪铝业涨超7%，泛美白银、美国黄 金公司、黄金资源涨超4%，Lucid、福特汽车涨超3%。加密矿企、稀土概念跌幅居前，Hut 8跌近5%，TeraWulf跌超1%。艺电收涨15%，创最近六年来最 佳单日表现，报道称沙特主权财富基金PIF和银湖资本考虑将其私有化。 特斯拉报440.40美元，涨幅4.02%，市值为14643.96亿美元。其市值一夜增加约566亿美元（约合人民币4038亿元）。 有评论指出，美国8月核心PCE通胀基本维持稳定，这可能会让美联储继续保持此前既定的降息节奏。美国商务部报告称，8月PCE物价指数环比上涨 0.3%，年化整体通胀率为2.7%。剔除食品和能源后更受关注的核心PCE物价指数环比上升0.2%，年化率为2.9%。 尽管美联储的通胀目标是2%，但这些数据不太可能改变政策制定者的方针——他们上周曾表示预计在年底前还将进行两次25个基点的降息。 美联储官 ...

Fundamental Analysis - Silver prices experienced slight increases after a period of high volatility, with the upcoming PCE price index being a key inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve. The Reuters survey anticipates a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 2.7% for August PCE [1] - Following the Federal Reserve's expected interest rate cut, the dollar has been appreciating slightly. Despite expectations of further rate cuts in the remaining meetings of the year, the pace of these cuts will largely depend on upcoming economic data [3] - Federal Reserve officials continue to comment on the recent rate cut decision, with varying opinions on the necessity and speed of further cuts. The labor market remains a focal point, with recent unemployment claims data indicating a decrease, suggesting that companies are hesitant to lay off employees despite economic uncertainties [4] Market Trends - The current trend for silver is characterized as a price consolidation phase, with support and resistance levels being monitored for potential trading strategies. The dollar index is also showing signs of a fluctuating downward trend [6][9] - Technical indicators for silver suggest that prices are near the lower boundary of a consolidation range, with support identified at 44.30. The MACD indicator indicates a downward trend, and market activity appears to be decreasing, warranting cautious trading approaches [9]

Market Valuation and Earnings Growth - The market is currently viewed as fully valued, but this does not necessarily indicate an impending decline, as overvalued markets can continue to rise [2][3] - The market today is characterized by higher quality, stronger growth, and less cyclicality compared to long-term history, justifying higher valuations [3] - Earnings are expected to drive market performance over the next 6 to 12 months, with projections for a third consecutive year of double-digit earnings growth for the S&P [4] Impact of Tariffs and Economic Stimulus - Companies have managed to absorb the impact of tariffs, maintaining strong profit margins, although there are concerns about potential profit margin pressures from ongoing tariff increases [5][6] - The economic environment is expected to improve due to easier financial conditions and stimulus from recent legislation, which is anticipated to support corporate profitability and economic growth [6][7] Consumer Sentiment and Labor Market - The high-end consumer is expected to remain resilient, despite concerns about stress at the lower end of the consumer spectrum [8] - Labor market stability is crucial for consumer sentiment, and while there is a current slowdown, business optimism is improving, indicating potential recovery [9][10] - A decrease in the number of companies announcing job cuts suggests a stabilization in the labor market, which could support consumer spending moving forward [10][11] Investment Strategy - Any volatility or pullback in the market should be viewed as an investment opportunity, as the overall outlook remains positive despite potential short-term challenges [12]

Group 1: Economic Overview - US consumer confidence has reached its lowest level since May, with a preliminary index of 55.4 for September, down 4.8% from August and down 21% year-on-year [1][4] - The current economic conditions index for September is 61.2, a decrease of 0.8% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, while the consumer expectations index is at 51.8, down 7.3% month-on-month and 30.4% year-on-year [1][4] - Domestic economic conditions in China remain stable, with industrial production growing by 5.2% year-on-year in August [2] Group 2: Copper Market Analysis - There has been a continuous inflow of imported copper, but expectations for domestic copper supply are decreasing, leading to a build-up in electrolytic copper inventories [1][4] - As of September 15, the SMM national mainstream copper inventory increased by 0.99 million tons to 15.42 million tons, with inventory rising in regions outside Shanghai [3] - The average price for SMM 1 electrolytic copper is reported between 80,780 and 81,100 yuan per ton, with a slight decrease in the premium over the previous trading day [3][5] Group 3: Aluminum Market Analysis - The supply of aluminum has seen a slight increase, while terminal consumption is recovering; however, high aluminum prices are suppressing downstream consumption [1][4] - As of September 15, the domestic mainstream consumption area for electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory is 63.7 million tons, an increase of 1.2 million tons from the previous week [3][6] - The price for SMM A00 aluminum is reported at 20,950 yuan per ton, down 70 yuan from the previous trading day [3][6]

Report Title - Research on precious metals futures including gold and silver [1] Core View - The report focuses on the price, trading volume, position, ETF holdings, inventory, spreads, and trend strength of gold and silver futures, as well as related macro and industry news [1][2][5] Key Points by Section 1. Precious Metals Fundamental Data - **Price**: - Gold: Shanghai Gold 2510 closed at 834.22 with a daily increase of 0.41%, and its night - session closed at 834.00 with a 0.39% increase; Comex Gold 2510 closed at 3680.70 with a 0.20% increase; London Gold Spot closed at 3642.37 with a 0.30% increase [2] - Silver: Shanghai Silver 2510 closed at 10035 with a 2.42% increase, and its night - session closed at 10051.00 with a 1.22% increase; Comex Silver 2510 closed at 42.680 with a 1.46% increase; London Silver Spot closed at 42.165 with a 1.56% increase [2] - **Trading Volume and Position**: - Gold: Shanghai Gold 2510 contract trading volume was 170,217, an increase of 4,857 from the previous day, and the position was 109,267, a decrease of 5,156; Comex Gold 2510 trading volume was 147,566, a decrease of 59,573, and the position was 385,713, an increase of 230 [2] - Silver: Shanghai Silver 2510 trading volume was 628,438, an increase of 326,453, and the position was 219,328, an increase of 15,985; Comex Silver 2510 trading volume was 70,339, an increase of 11,255, and the position was 133,690, unchanged [2] - **ETF Holdings**: - SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 974.80, a decrease of 3; SLV Silver ETF holdings (the day before yesterday) were 15,059.74, a decrease of 8 [2] - **Inventory**: - Gold: Shanghai Gold inventory was 52,950 kg, an increase of 2,799; Comex Gold inventory (the day before yesterday) was 38,912,305 troy ounces, unchanged [2] - Silver: Shanghai Silver inventory was 1,246,569 kg, an increase of 6382; Comex Silver inventory (the day before yesterday) was 524,513,404 troy ounces, an increase of 1,384,668 [2] - **Spreads**: - Gold: The spread between Gold T + D and AU251 was - 3.88, unchanged; the cost of the spread arbitrage of buying December and selling June of Shanghai Gold was 4.77, a decrease of 0.87; the spread between Gold T + D and London Gold was 449.67, a decrease of 5.61 [2] - Silver: The spread between Silver T + D and AG2510 was 26, an increase of 14; the cost of the spread arbitrage of buying December and selling June of Shanghai Silver was 73.41, a decrease of 11.3; the spread between Silver T + D and London Silver was 5,155, a decrease of 973 [2] - **Exchange Rates**: - The exchange rate of the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.12, a decrease of 0.01%; the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar was 1.17, unchanged; the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Japanese yen was 147.86, an increase of 0.05; the exchange rate of the British pound against the US dollar was 1.21, unchanged [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - China and the US held talks on economic and trade issues in Spain, emphasizing the importance of equality and mutual benefit [2][4] - China's Ministry of Commerce launched an anti - discrimination investigation into US measures in the integrated circuit field [6] - China's new social financing in August was 2.57 trillion yuan, new loans were 590 billion yuan, the new lending rate for enterprises remained at a historical low, and the M2 - M1 gap hit a four - year low [6] - Multiple central banks, including the Fed, Canada, the UK, and Japan, will announce interest rate decisions [6] - US consumer confidence hit a four - month low, strengthening the expectation of a Fed rate cut this week [6] - The US government is facing a "shutdown" crisis [6] - The UK and the US will sign a "breakthrough" technology agreement [6] 3. Trend Strength - Gold trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view; silver trend strength is also 0, indicating a neutral view [5]

Group 1: Apple Inc. Developments - Senior AI executive Robby Walker plans to leave Apple, which has raised significant attention in the tech industry [1] - Walker was responsible for the Siri project, which has faced challenges in improvements after being transferred to software head Craig Federighi [1] - Following his departure, Walker will focus on developing new AI web search technology to compete with systems like Perplexity and ChatGPT, with plans for a launch in the next year [1] Group 2: U.S. Consumer Confidence and Economic Outlook - The U.S. consumer confidence index fell to a recent low of 55.4 in September, a decrease of 4.8% from the previous month and a 21% year-over-year decline [2] - Concerns over tariffs affect nearly 60% of consumers, indicating that trade policies continue to impact public economic confidence [2] - Economists from Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank predict that the Federal Reserve will accelerate interest rate cuts in response to slowing inflation and a weakening labor market [2] Group 3: Broader Economic Indicators - The developments regarding Apple's executive changes, declining consumer confidence in the U.S., and the potential for faster interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are significant indicators of current global economic shifts [3] - The interplay of technological advancements, consumer sentiment, and financial policy will have lasting impacts on global markets [3]

Market Overview - U.S. stocks showed mixed performance, with the Dow Jones index falling over 200 points, down 0.44% to 45,904.50, while NASDAQ rose 0.41% to 22,134.26 and S&P 500 gained 0.01% to 6,587.98 [1] - European shares were mixed, with the eurozone's STOXX 600 rising 0.10% and Spain's IBEX 35 Index falling 0.31% [6] - Asian markets closed mostly higher, with Japan's Nikkei 225 gaining 0.89% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng rising 1.16% [7] Consumer Sentiment - The University of Michigan consumer sentiment declined to 55.4 in September from 58 in August, below market estimates of 58 [2][8] Commodities - Oil prices increased by 1.7% to $63.44, gold rose 0.5% to $3,691.50, silver increased by 1.5% to $42.765, and copper rose 0.2% to $4.6680 [5] Company Performance - Allied Gaming & Entertainment Inc. shares surged 113% to $1.9501 after announcing an initial investment in Bitcoin and Ethereum [9] - GlucoTrack, Inc. shares rose 80% to $8.76 following a purchase agreement with Sixth Borough Capital for up to $20 million [9] - IBEX Limited shares increased by 40% to $42.77 after reporting better-than-expected fourth-quarter results and issuing FY26 sales guidance above estimates [9] - Next Technology Holding Inc. shares dropped 54% to $0.1638 after announcing a 200-for-1 reverse stock split [9] - XTI Aerospace, Inc. shares fell 33% to $1.3698 after pricing a $20 million public offering [9] - Frequency Electronics, Inc. shares decreased by 13% to $29.95 after reporting worse-than-expected first-quarter results [9]

Market Overview - U.S. stocks showed mixed performance, with the Dow Jones index falling over 200 points, down 0.44% to 45,904.50, while NASDAQ rose 0.41% to 22,134.26 and S&P 500 gained 0.01% to 6,587.98 [1] - European shares were mixed, with the eurozone's STOXX 600 rising 0.10% and Spain's IBEX 35 Index falling 0.31% [6] - Asian markets closed mostly higher, with Japan's Nikkei 225 gaining 0.89% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng rising 1.16% [7] Consumer Sentiment - The University of Michigan consumer sentiment declined to 55.4 in September from 58 in August, below market estimates of 58 [2][8] Commodities - Oil prices increased by 1.7% to $63.44, gold rose 0.5% to $3,691.50, silver increased by 1.5% to $42.765, and copper rose 0.2% to $4.6680 [5] Company Performance - Allied Gaming & Entertainment Inc. shares surged 113% to $1.9501 after announcing an initial investment in Bitcoin and Ethereum [9] - GlucoTrack, Inc. shares rose 80% to $8.76 following a purchase agreement with Sixth Borough Capital for up to $20 million [9] - IBEX Limited shares increased by 40% to $42.77 after reporting better-than-expected fourth-quarter results and issuing FY26 sales guidance above estimates [9] - Next Technology Holding Inc. shares dropped 54% to $0.1638 after announcing a 200-for-1 reverse stock split [9] - XTI Aerospace, Inc. shares fell 33% to $1.3698 after pricing a $20 million public offering [9] - Frequency Electronics, Inc. shares decreased by 13% to $29.95 after reporting worse-than-expected first-quarter results [9]