Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by Trump to potentially dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook marks a significant deviation from over a century of presidential restraint regarding the Federal Reserve's independence [1][2]. Group 1: Political Dynamics - Trump's ongoing conflict with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell over monetary policy has escalated, with Trump advocating for interest rate cuts to alleviate government debt pressure, while Powell insists on maintaining the independence of monetary policy [1]. - The Federal Reserve's board, which is supposed to remain neutral, has become a battleground for political power struggles, with Trump aiming to secure a majority by appointing his allies [1]. Group 2: Implications for Monetary Policy - If Trump successfully exerts control over the Federal Reserve, it could lead to quicker interest rate cuts, potentially shifting international capital towards emerging markets like China and strengthening the renminbi [2]. - The independence of the Federal Reserve is at risk of being undermined, raising concerns that monetary policy could become a tool of political influence rather than an independent economic mechanism [2]. Group 3: Historical Context - This situation represents an unprecedented challenge to the Federal Reserve's century-long tradition of independence, with global markets closely monitoring the developments [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the criticism from U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin towards the Federal Reserve, emphasizing concerns over its independence due to its expanded functions and the use of non-standard policies [1][2]. Group 1: Criticism of the Federal Reserve - Mnuchin argues that the Federal Reserve's overreach in its responsibilities has jeopardized its credibility and political legitimacy, calling for a comprehensive review of the institution [1][2]. - The article indicates that the Trump administration's criticism of the Federal Reserve has escalated, questioning not only the need for interest rate cuts but also the overall operational model of the Fed [1][3]. Group 2: Call for Independent Review - Mnuchin demands an honest, independent, and non-partisan review of the entire Federal Reserve, including its monetary policy, regulation, communication, staffing, and research [3]. - He expresses anticipation for a response from the Federal Reserve regarding his call for an internal review, emphasizing that good management is achieved through action rather than mere discussion [3]. Group 3: Regulatory Framework Concerns - Mnuchin criticizes the Dodd-Frank Act for significantly expanding the Federal Reserve's regulatory scope, which he believes has blurred the lines between monetary and fiscal policy [4]. - He suggests a more coherent framework where the FDIC and OCC lead bank regulation while the Federal Reserve focuses on macro monitoring, lender of last resort liquidity, and monetary policy [4]. Group 4: Monetary Policy Experimentation - Mnuchin compares the Federal Reserve's new operational model to an uncontrolled experiment, indicating that the unconventional monetary policy tools released post-2008 financial crisis have altered the Fed's policy framework with unpredictable consequences [5][6]. - He cites the Fed's failure to accurately predict GDP growth, highlighting a significant overestimation of over $1 trillion in GDP during the recovery period [6]. Group 5: Inequality and Quantitative Easing - The article discusses Mnuchin's criticism of the quantitative easing (QE) policies post-2008, arguing that they disproportionately benefited asset owners and exacerbated wealth inequality [7]. - He points out that while large corporations benefited from low-cost debt, younger and less affluent families were left behind, suffering the most from inflation and missing out on asset appreciation opportunities [8]. Group 6: Employment Data and Federal Reserve Accountability - The article notes that the recent non-farm payroll report showed only 22,000 jobs added in August, significantly below expectations, leading to further blame directed at the Federal Reserve from Trump administration officials [9]. - Trump and other officials assert that the Fed's high-interest rates are hindering economic growth and that a reconsideration of policy is necessary in light of the weak employment data [10].

Group 1 - The core argument revolves around the complex interplay between gold prices, inflation, and Federal Reserve policies, highlighting the potential for gold prices to soar if the Fed's credibility is compromised [1] - Gold prices are influenced by three main factors: inflation, the US dollar, and geopolitical tensions, which create a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces [2][3][4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's policy statements significantly impact market dynamics, with interest rate decisions reflecting internal divisions among officials regarding future rate cuts [6][7] - Market reactions to Fed officials' comments can lead to substantial fluctuations in gold prices, indicating the importance of the Fed's perceived credibility and independence [7] - The PCE price index serves as a critical indicator for the Fed's policy direction, with market expectations shifting based on upcoming data releases [8] Group 3 - The market demonstrates a keen ability to interpret Fed policies, with gold ETFs acting as a barometer for investor sentiment, showing significant inflows in 2024 [10] - Technical analysis plays a crucial role in trading strategies, with specific price levels acting as support and resistance, amplifying the effects of policy announcements [11] - Institutional reports suggest that even a minor shift in US Treasury holdings towards gold could lead to dramatic price increases, reflecting the market's sensitivity to Fed policies [12]

Group 1 - The core concern is whether Stephen Milan's potential appointment to the Federal Reserve Board will undermine the central bank's long-standing independence amid ongoing pressure from the Trump administration [1][3] - Milan emphasizes the importance of the Federal Reserve's independence in preventing severe economic downturns and hyperinflation, stating that he will prioritize this independence if confirmed [3][4] - If confirmed, Milan will fill the vacancy left by Adriana Kugler's resignation and may only serve for a few months before her term officially ends in January [3] Group 2 - There is a prevailing view that Trump's nomination of Milan aims to position him as a "shadow chairman" within the Federal Reserve, primarily to disrupt the current decision-making balance rather than to formulate conventional policies [4] - As a Federal Reserve Board member, Milan would gain voting rights on interest rate decisions and significant regulatory decisions related to Wall Street, which could indirectly affect the central bank's operational efficiency [4] - Trump's intention is clear, as he has expressed a desire for a majority of the Federal Reserve Board to support his policy views, which would allow him greater flexibility to alter the Fed's policy direction [4]

Core Viewpoint - Stephen Miran, nominated by President Trump for the Federal Reserve Board, emphasizes the importance of maintaining the independence of the central bank and its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment [1][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Role and Responsibilities - The primary responsibility of the central bank is to prevent economic downturns and hyperinflation, with monetary policy independence being crucial for its success [1][4]. - The Federal Reserve plays a vital role in managing liquidity in the financial system, which requires regular and precise adjustments [5]. - The Federal Reserve oversees the most significant financial institutions globally and sets different funding prices for borrowers, including other central banks [2][5]. Group 2: Miran's Background and Perspectives - Miran has served as the Chairman of the President's Council of Economic Advisers and has extensive experience in monetary policy and macroeconomics, having studied at Harvard University [3][4]. - He has previously criticized the Federal Reserve's aggressive stimulus measures during the COVID-19 crisis and aims to base his decisions on macroeconomic analysis and long-term economic governance [1][4]. - Miran acknowledges the complexity of the Federal Reserve's functions and the importance of effective monetary policy for the economy's proper functioning and the maintenance of strong capital markets [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing for Stephen Milan, nominated by Trump for the Federal Reserve Board, emphasizing the importance of preventing economic recession and hyperinflation as the central bank's primary tasks [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy and Independence - Milan asserts that the independence of monetary policy is crucial for its success [1] - He plans to fulfill his duties based on macroeconomic analysis and long-term beneficial judgments if confirmed [1] - Milan intends to maintain the independence of the Federal Open Market Committee, which is tasked with significant responsibilities [1] Group 2: Regulatory Concerns - Milan raises questions regarding the Federal Reserve's activities beyond its dual mandate, particularly concerning its balance sheet [1] - He highlights the Fed's role in regulating major financial institutions and setting different capital prices for borrowers and lenders, including other central banks [1] - The final composition of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet remains an unresolved issue [1]

Group 1 - The core responsibility of the Federal Reserve is to prevent economic recessions and inflation [1] - The independence of monetary policy is emphasized as a crucial element [1] - There are plans to maintain the independence of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - International gold prices hit a new record high, and the A - share market had an adjustment. Market sentiment was affected by various factors such as concerns about the Fed's independence, Trump's tariff issues, and economic data from different countries [3][4]. - Different commodity markets showed diverse trends. For example, some commodities were expected to be in a supply - demand imbalance, while others were affected by production changes, policy adjustments, and market sentiment [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments - **Macro Strategy (Gold)**: The US ISM manufacturing PMI in August was 48.7, and Trump called for a strong interest - rate cut. Gold prices rose to a new high due to concerns about the Fed's independence and tariff issues. The market should pay attention to the upcoming non - farm data and the increase in long - short games [14][15]. - **Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - Dollar Index)**: Multiple high - ranking Japanese LDP officials expressed their intention to resign, and concerns about the UK economy intensified. The dollar index rose significantly in the short term, and market risk appetite declined [20]. - **Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures)**: The number of new A - share accounts in August was 2.65 million, with a significant year - on - year and month - on - month increase. The A - share market adjusted on September 2, and the subsequent trend depends on major events [22][23]. - **Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures)**: Trump planned to appeal the global tariff case to the US Supreme Court. The US ISM manufacturing PMI in August continued to contract, and the US Treasury Secretary planned to interview Fed chair candidates. The US stock market adjusted, and investors should pay attention to volatility [25][26][27]. - **Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures)**: The central bank did not conduct open - market treasury bond trading in September. The bond market was in a volatile trend, and it was not recommended to chase long positions after the market rose [29][30]. 2. Commodity News and Comments - **Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal)**: The good - quality rate of US soybeans decreased to 65%. The US weekly export inspection data met expectations, and the domestic soybean meal supply was sufficient but demand was also strong [32]. - **Agricultural Products (Cotton)**: The cotton harvest progress in Brazil was 72.8% as of August 30. The growth progress of US cotton was slow, but the good - quality rate was high. The external market was under seasonal supply pressure, and the Zhengzhou cotton market was expected to be in a short - term shock [34][35][36]. - **Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil)**: India's palm oil imports in August increased by 16% month - on - month, and Malaysia's palm oil production in August decreased by 2.65% month - on - month. It was recommended to go long on palm oil at low prices [37][39]. - **Black Metals (Steam Coal)**: Port coal prices were weakly falling. Due to weak demand and transportation restrictions during the parade, coal prices were expected to continue the seasonal decline but be supported at around 650 yuan [40]. - **Black Metals (Iron Ore)**: Grangex announced the restart of Sydvaranger mining. The overall raw material market was under pressure, but it was expected to be in a shock market in September [41]. - **Agricultural Products (Red Dates)**: The price of red dates in the Guangzhou Ruyifang market was stable. The fundamentals of red dates were not significantly changed, and it was recommended to wait and see [43][44]. - **Agricultural Products (Corn Starch)**: Corn starch enterprises in different regions had losses. The supply - demand situation was weak, and the price difference between rice flour and starch was at a low level [45]. - **Agricultural Products (Corn)**: The成交 rate of imported corn auctions increased. The spot price of corn was strengthening, but the upward space of the futures price was limited [45][46]. - **Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate)**: Argentina approved Rio Tinto's Rincon lithium project. The supply - demand imbalance caused by supply reduction might be reflected in high - frequency data in September, and it was recommended to try long positions and pay attention to positive spreads [48][49]. - **Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon)**: The 0.66 yuan/W component price limit was cancelled. The polysilicon price was expected to be between 48,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, and it was recommended to wait and see for arbitrage [50][53]. - **Non - ferrous Metals (Lead)**: The LME lead market was weak, while the domestic lead market's supply was expected to tighten and demand to improve. It was recommended to go long on lead at low prices and wait and see for arbitrage [54]. - **Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon)**: The production of industrial silicon in Xinjiang was slowly increasing, and the market was expected to be in a short - term shock between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton [57][58]. - **Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc)**: The LME zinc market was supported by low inventory, and the Shanghai zinc market was expected to be in a short - term shock. It was recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and pay attention to positive spreads [59][60]. - **Non - ferrous Metals (Copper)**: The copper market was affected by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and industry policies. The copper price was expected to be supported in the short term, and it was recommended to be long on a short - term basis [65]. - **Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel)**: The LME nickel inventory increased. The raw material price was firm, and the nickel price was expected to be in a range - bound shock. It was recommended to go long at low prices [66][67]. - **Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil)**: Kazakhstan's crude oil production in August increased by 2% month - on - month. The oil price was expected to be in a shock [68]. - **Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions)**: The CEA price was in a short - term shock and weakening trend [69][70]. - **Energy Chemicals (PX)**: The PX price was in a short - term shock adjustment [72][73]. - **Energy Chemicals (PTA)**: The PTA market was in a short - term shock adjustment with improved fundamentals [74][75]. - **Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda)**: The caustic soda spot price was expected to be in a high - level shock [76][77]. - **Energy Chemicals (Pulp)**: The pulp market was in a weak shock [77][78]. - **Energy Chemicals (PVC)**: The PVC market was expected to be in a shock [79][80]. - **Energy Chemicals (Styrene)**: The styrene market was in a weak operation recently [81][83]. - **Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips)**: The bottle chip market had new capacity plans, and the demand was moving towards the off - season [84][85]. - **Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash)**: The soda ash market was weakening, and it was recommended to short at high prices [86][87]. - **Energy Chemicals (Float Glass)**: The float glass market was in a weak trend, and it was recommended to focus on arbitrage [88][89]. - **Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates)**: The container freight rate market was under supply pressure, and the price was expected to be in a short - term shock. It was recommended to short on emotional rallies in October and long after the price decline in December [91][92].

Core Viewpoint - The dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by Trump raises significant concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and the implications for U.S. monetary policy [1][3][4] Group 1: Dismissal of Lisa Cook - Trump announced the dismissal of Lisa Cook, citing alleged violations related to two mortgage applications, which is unprecedented in the 111-year history of the Federal Reserve [1][3] - Cook is the first Black woman to serve as a Federal Reserve Governor and her removal challenges the legal protections that typically safeguard such positions from arbitrary dismissal by the President [1][3][4] Group 2: Implications for Federal Reserve Independence - The incident highlights a potential shift in the Federal Reserve's independence, with concerns that the institution could become a tool for presidential political agendas rather than a body guided by economic data [3][4][9] - Historical precedents indicate that political interference in central banking can lead to severe economic consequences, as seen during Nixon's presidency, which resulted in hyperinflation [3][4][9] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the news of Cook's dismissal, there was a notable market reaction, with U.S. Treasury yield spreads reaching a three-year high and significant declines in Asian and European stock markets [7] - Investors expressed heightened concern over policy uncertainty, leading to a sell-off in U.S. Treasuries and a surge in gold prices as a safe-haven asset [7] Group 4: Global Consequences - The potential loss of Federal Reserve independence could have far-reaching effects beyond the U.S., impacting global financial markets and leading to instability in emerging markets [6][9] - Experts warn that if the Federal Reserve's policies become subject to presidential whims, it could destabilize the dollar and disrupt international trade and capital flows [6][9]

Core Viewpoint - The warning from European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde regarding U.S. President Donald Trump's interference with the Federal Reserve's independence highlights a growing tension between U.S. politics and monetary policy, which could have profound implications for both the U.S. and global economies [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - The independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for the effectiveness and credibility of monetary policy, as historical instances of political interference have led to inflation spikes, currency devaluation, and stock market declines [1][2]. - Trump's attempts to exert control over the Federal Reserve, including threats against Chairman Powell and legal actions against Governor Lisa Cook, reflect a desire for direct influence over monetary policy, particularly in terms of interest rate cuts [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Context - The Federal Reserve is currently navigating a delicate balance in its monetary policy decisions, with inflation data remaining above the 2% target and concerns about a weakening labor market following a disappointing July employment report [2]. - Market expectations for a rate cut in September are high, with nearly 90% probability, indicating concerns over economic slowdown and a potential shift towards more accommodative policies [2]. Group 3: Global Financial Implications - Erosion of the Federal Reserve's independence could lead to significant uncertainty in global financial markets, as the dollar's status as the primary reserve currency is partly based on the strength and independence of its monetary policy [3]. - A loss of confidence in U.S. dollar assets could result in capital outflows, dollar depreciation, and potential ripple effects across global financial markets, impacting borrowing costs, financial stability, and the global trade and investment landscape [3].