Core Viewpoint - In the first five months of 2025, China's total goods trade value increased by 2.5% year-on-year, reaching 17.94 trillion yuan, with exports growing by 7.2% and imports declining by 3.8% [7][9]. Group 1: Trade Performance - Total goods trade value in May 2025 was 3.81 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.7% year-on-year, with exports at 2.28 trillion yuan (up 6.3%) and imports at 1.53 trillion yuan (down 2.1%) [8]. - General trade and processing trade saw growth, with general trade imports and exports totaling 11.51 trillion yuan (up 0.8%), accounting for 64.2% of total foreign trade [10]. - Processing trade reached 3.21 trillion yuan (up 6.2%), representing 17.9% of total trade [10]. Group 2: Trade Partners - ASEAN became China's largest trading partner, with trade totaling 3.02 trillion yuan (up 9.1%), accounting for 16.8% of total foreign trade [11]. - Trade with the EU reached 2.3 trillion yuan (up 2.9%), while trade with the US decreased by 8.1% to 1.72 trillion yuan [11]. Group 3: Enterprise Types - Private enterprises accounted for 57.1% of total foreign trade, with imports and exports totaling 10.25 trillion yuan (up 7%) [13]. - Foreign-invested enterprises had a trade value of 5.21 trillion yuan (up 2.3%), while state-owned enterprises saw a decline of 12.7% to 2.44 trillion yuan [13]. Group 4: Export Composition - Mechanical and electrical products constituted 60% of total exports, with significant growth in integrated circuits (up 18.9%) and automobiles (up 6.6%) [14]. - Labor-intensive products saw a decline in exports, while agricultural product exports increased by 4.7% [14]. Group 5: Import Trends - Major bulk commodity prices fell, with iron ore imports down 5.2% and crude oil imports up slightly by 0.3% [15]. - The import value of mechanical and electrical products grew by 6% [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On June 10, the SM2509 contract closed at 5,542 yuan/ton, down 0.18%, and the Inner Mongolia silicon-manganese spot was reported at 5,450 yuan/ton. For the first five months of 2025, China's goods trade imports and exports increased by 2.5% year-on-year, with exports of 10.67 trillion yuan, up 7.2%, and imports of 7.27 trillion yuan, down 3.8%. Fundamentally, manufacturers' production cuts have led to the operating rate reaching a low level in the same period, but the overall inventory is still relatively high. In terms of cost, the port inventory of imported manganese ore at the raw material end increased by 132,000 tons this period, the downstream hot metal output peaked and declined, and the raw material coal prices rose significantly, improving the pessimistic sentiment. In terms of profit, the spot profit in Inner Mongolia is -180 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia it is -370 yuan/ton. In the market, steel mills are cautious in procurement, and the tender prices continue to decline. Technically, the 4-hour cycle K-line is below the 20 and 60 moving averages, and the operation should be treated as a volatile market [2]. - On June 10, the SF2509 contract closed at 5,174 yuan/ton, up 0.27%, and the Ningxia ferrosilicon spot was reported at 5,170 yuan/ton. In May, the PPI decreased by 3.3% year-on-year, with the decline rate 0.6 percentage points larger than the previous month. Among them, the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry decreased by 10.2% year-on-year in May, with the decline rate 1.6 percentage points larger than the previous month. In terms of demand, the current production profit of ferroalloys is negative, the settlement electricity price in Ningxia has been lowered, weakening the cost support, and the overall demand expectation for steel is still weak. Attention should be paid to the market sentiment disturbance under the change of tariff policies. In terms of profit, the spot profit in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia is -330 yuan/ton. Technically, the 4-hour cycle K-line is below the 20 and 60 moving averages, and the operation should be treated as a volatile market [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM主力合约收盘价为5,542元/吨，较前一日下跌10元；SF主力合约收盘价为5,174元/吨，与前一日持平 [2]。 - SM期货合约持仓量为648,759手，较前一日增加4,965手；SF期货合约持仓量为456,759手，较前一日减少13,260手 [2]。 - 锰硅前20名净持仓为 -30,777手，较前一日减少390手；硅铁前20名净持仓为 -15,948手，较前一日减少1,107手 [2]。 - SM1 - 9月合约价差为28元/吨，较前一日减少4元；SF1 - 9月合约价差为 -12元/吨，较前一日减少8元 [2]。 - SM仓单为100,048张，较前一日减少717张；SF仓单为15,415张，较前一日减少47张 [2]。 3.2 Spot Market - 内蒙古锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5,450元/吨，与前一日持平；内蒙古硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,260元/吨，与前一日持平 [2]。 - 贵州锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5,500元/吨，与前一日持平；青海硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,110元/吨，与前一日持平 [2]。 - 云南锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5,450元/吨，较前一日下跌50元；宁夏硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,170元/吨，与前一日持平 [2]。 - 锰硅指数均值为5,411元/吨，较前一周下跌104元；SF主力合约基差为 -4元/吨，与前一日持平 [2]。 - SM主力合约基差为 -92元/吨，较前一日增加10元 [2]。 3.3 Upstream Situation - 南非矿:Mn38块:天津港价格为31元/吨度，与前一日持平；硅石（98%，西北）价格为210元/吨，与前一日持平 [2]。 - 内蒙古乌海二级冶金焦价格为900元/吨，较前一日下跌70元；兰炭（中料，神木）价格为640元/吨，与前一日持平 [2]。 - 锰矿港口库存为420.3万吨，较前一周增加13.3万吨 [2]。 3.4 Industry Situation - 锰硅企业开工率为35.03%，较前一周增加0.26个百分点；硅铁企业开工率为32.78%，较前一周增加2.34个百分点 [2]。 - 锰硅供应为171,885吨，较前一周增加1,960吨；硅铁供应为97,300吨，较前一周增加12,400吨 [2]。 - 锰硅厂家库存为186,600吨，较前半月减少14,500吨；硅铁厂家库存为6.77万吨，较前半月减少0.74万吨 [2]。 - 锰硅全国钢厂库存为15.15天，较前一月减少0.29天；硅铁全国钢厂库存为15.20天，较前一月减少0.24天 [2]。 - 五大钢种锰硅需求为125,793吨，较前一周减少1,093吨；五大钢种硅铁需求为20,324.7吨，较前一周减少249.8吨 [2]。 3.5 Downstream Situation - 247家钢厂高炉开工率为83.54%，较前一周减少0.35个百分点；247家钢厂高炉产能利用率为90.63%，较前一周减少0.04个百分点 [2]。 - 粗钢产量为8,601.9万吨，较前一月减少682.24万吨 [2]。 3.6 Industry News - 国务院总理李强主持以“深化科技成果转化机制改革，推动科技创新和产业创新融合发展”为主题的第十四次专题学习，着力破解科技成果转化瓶颈，提高转化效能，促进创新发展，坚持有效市场和有为政府相结合，完善支持政策和市场服务 [2]。 - 5月，CPI同比下降0.1%，环比下降0.2%，其中食品价格下降0.2%，猪肉价格同比上涨3.1%，影响CPI上涨约0.04个百分点；PPI同比下降3.3%，环比下降0.4% [2]。 - 前5个月，我国货物贸易进出口总值17.94万亿元，其中出口10.67万亿元，增长7.2%；进口7.27万亿元，下降3.8%。东盟、欧盟、美国为我国前三大贸易伙伴，贸易总值分别为3.02万亿元、2.3万亿元、1.72万亿元，分别增长9.1%、2.9%、下降8.1%。我国对共建“一带一路”国家合计进出口9.24万亿元，增长4.2% [2]。

2025 年 6 月 10 日星期二 【实时热点】 【美国债市】 2 年期美债收益率跌 4.15 个基点报 3.993% 资料来源：BLOOMBERG、AASTOCKS、WIND、格隆汇、国元证券经纪（香港）整理 请务必阅读免责条款 证 券 研 1 【经济数据】 究 报 告 美国会预算办公室：美国可能会在 8 月中旬用尽避免债务触 及上限的措施 美联储调查：5 月消费者通胀预期全面下降，为 2024 年来 首次 日本修正后 GDP 萎缩收窄至 0.2% 中国对沙特等 4 国试行免签政策 中国 5 月 CPI 同比降 0.1%，PPI 同比降幅扩大至 3.3% 海关总署：前 5 个月货物贸易进出口同比增长 2.5% 5 月全国乘用车市场零售 196 万辆，同比增 13.9% 英国金融监管机构与英伟达达成合作，为银行 AI 实验提供 安全沙盒 亚马逊拟在宾夕法尼亚州投资 200 亿美元用于 AI 和云计算 星巴克中国将发力非咖啡饮品市场 5 年期美债收益率跌 4.39 个基点报 4.079% 10 年期美债收益率跌 3.18 个基点报 4.474% 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25, ...

Core Viewpoint - China's goods trade showed resilience in the first five months of the year, with a total import and export value of 17.94 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [1] Trade Performance - Exports increased by 7.2% while imports decreased by 3.8% in the first five months [1] - In May, the total trade value was 3.81 trillion yuan, up 2.7% year-on-year, with exports growing by 6.3% and imports declining by 2.1% [1] - The general trade method accounted for 64.2% of total foreign trade, with a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [1] Key Export and Import Products - Mechanical and electrical products remained the main export category, with a value of 6.4 trillion yuan, a 9.3% increase, making up 60% of total exports [1] - Notable growth in specific products included industrial robots (55.4%), electric vehicles (19%), integrated circuits (18.9%), and construction machinery (10.7%) [1] - Major commodities like iron ore, crude oil, and coal saw a decline in import prices, while the import value of mechanical and electrical products increased [1] Trade Partners and Market Dynamics - Private enterprises were the largest trading entities, with a total import and export value of 10.25 trillion yuan, a 7% increase, accounting for 57.1% of total foreign trade [2] - The top three trading partners were ASEAN, the EU, and the US, with trade values of 3.02 trillion yuan (up 9.1%), while trade with the US decreased by 8.1% [2] - Trade with Belt and Road countries reached 9.24 trillion yuan, a 4.2% increase, and trade with African countries hit a record high of 963.21 billion yuan, up 12.4% [2] Future Outlook - The export growth in May indicates ongoing external demand resilience, while the narrowing decline in imports suggests marginal improvement in domestic demand [3] - The activity of foreign-funded enterprises reached a near five-year high, with over 73,000 companies engaged in import and export activities, reflecting China's long-term attractiveness to foreign investment [3] - Expectations for June include continued export growth due to the "export rush" effect and proactive market expansion by foreign trade companies [3]

Domestic News - The Central Committee and the State Council issued opinions to enhance social security fairness, improve public service equity, expand basic livelihood services, and increase accessibility to diverse social services, including measures such as removing household registration restrictions for social insurance participation and increasing minimum wage standards [1][2] - In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.6% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The decline in CPI was mainly influenced by a 1.7% drop in energy prices, which accounted for nearly 70% of the total decline [1][2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline widening by 0.6 percentage points. The decrease was attributed to international input factors and a temporary decline in domestic energy and raw material prices [2] - In the first five months, China's total goods trade value reached 17.94 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, with exports growing by 7.2% and imports declining by 3.8%. ASEAN, the EU, and the US were the top three trading partners [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Civil Affairs announced a pilot program for smart elderly care service robots, requiring application verification in various settings, including homes and communities, with a minimum deployment of 200 units [2] Market Overview - As of June 9, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.43% to 3399.77, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.65% to 10250.14, and the ChiNext Index climbed by 1.07% to 2061.29. The Hang Seng Index also saw a rise of 1.63% to 24181.43 [7] - The onshore and offshore RMB both appreciated against the US dollar, with the onshore rate at 7.1838, up 93 points, and the offshore rate also at 7.1838, up 39 points [7] - The WTI crude oil price was at $64.62, up 0.06%, while Brent crude oil was at $65.82, showing no significant change [7]

Group 1 - In the first five months of this year, China's total goods trade import and export value reached 17.94 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.5% year-on-year [1] - In May, the import and export value was 3.81 trillion yuan, growing by 2.7% [1] - In May, China's exports amounted to 2.28 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 6.3% [1] Group 2 - In May, the national consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year and fell by 0.2% month-on-month [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in May dropped by 3.3% year-on-year and decreased by 0.4% month-on-month [2] Group 3 - The Hong Kong Legislative Council's Committee on Home Affairs and Culture is set to hold a meeting to discuss proposals for regulating basketball betting [3] Group 4 - As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.23%, briefly returning to 3,400 points [4] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.62%, while the ChiNext Index grew by 1.22% [4] - The Hang Seng Index climbed by 1.01%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index surged by 2.30% [4]

据海关统计，2025年前5个月，我国货物贸易进出口总值17.94万亿元人民币，同比（下同）增长2.5%。 其中，出口10.67万亿元，增长7.2%；进口7.27万亿元，下降3.8%。 5月份，我国货物贸易进出口总值3.81万亿元，增长2.7%。其中，出口2.28万亿元，增长6.3%；进口1.53 万亿元，下降2.1%。 前5个月我国进出口主要特点： 一、一般贸易、加工贸易进出口增长 前5个月，我国一般贸易进出口11.51万亿元，增长0.8%，占我外贸总值的64.2%。其中，出口7.04万亿 元，增长7%；进口4.47万亿元，下降7.8%。同期，加工贸易进出口3.21万亿元，增长6.2%，占17.9%。 其中，出口1.99万亿元，增长4.5%；进口1.22万亿元，增长9.3%。此外，我国以保税物流方式进出口 2.54万亿元，增长5.9%。其中，出口1.05万亿元，增长15.8%；进口1.49万亿元，下降0.2%。 二、对东盟、欧盟进出口增长 前5个月，东盟为我第一大贸易伙伴，我与东盟贸易总值为3.02万亿元，增长9.1%，占我外贸总值的 16.8%。其中，对东盟出口1.9万亿元，增长13.5%；自东盟进口1.1 ...

据苏州海关统计，苏州市4月货物贸易进出口总值2196.5亿元，同比增长5.6％。其中，出口1371.7亿 元，增长7％；进口824.8亿元，增长3.4％。2025年1-4月，苏州市货物贸易进出口总值8521亿元，增长 6.8%。其中，出口5403.2亿元，增长10.3%；进口3117.9亿元，增长1.3%。（上证报） ...

Core Viewpoint - In the first four months of 2025, China's total goods trade value increased by 2.4% year-on-year, with exports growing by 7.5% and imports declining by 4.2% [6][8]. Trade Performance - The total value of goods trade in April 2025 reached 3.84 trillion yuan, marking a 5.6% increase. Exports were 2.27 trillion yuan, up 9.3%, while imports were 1.57 trillion yuan, up 0.8% [7]. - In the first four months, general trade and processing trade saw growth, with general trade imports and exports totaling 9.05 trillion yuan, a 0.6% increase, and processing trade totaling 2.54 trillion yuan, a 6.6% increase [8]. Trade Partners - ASEAN emerged as China's largest trading partner, with a total trade value of 2.38 trillion yuan, up 9.2%. The EU followed as the second-largest partner with 1.78 trillion yuan, a 1.1% increase, while trade with the US decreased by 2.1% to 1.44 trillion yuan [9][10]. Enterprise Contributions - Private enterprises contributed significantly to trade, with a total of 8.05 trillion yuan, a 6.8% increase, accounting for 56.9% of total trade. Foreign-invested enterprises contributed 4.1 trillion yuan, a 1.9% increase, while state-owned enterprises saw a decline of 11.3% to 1.96 trillion yuan [11]. Export Composition - Mechanical and electrical products accounted for over 60% of exports, totaling 5.04 trillion yuan, a 9.5% increase. Key growth areas included integrated circuits and automobiles [12]. Import Trends - Major commodity import prices fell, with iron ore down 17.8% and crude oil down 8%. However, imports of mechanical and electrical products increased by 5.7% to 2.23 trillion yuan [13]. Price Trends - In April 2025, the industrial producer price index fell by 2.7% year-on-year, with production material prices down 3.1%. The consumer price index saw a slight decline of 0.1% year-on-year, with food prices down 0.2% [16][20].

Group 1 - In April, China's total goods trade imports and exports increased by 5.6% year-on-year [7] - The e-commerce logistics index in China continued to rise in April [9] - The number of exhibitors at the Fourth China-Central and Eastern European Countries Expo is expected to reach a new high [10] Group 2 - The first national standard for evaluating the brand value of the elderly care service industry has been released and implemented [12] - The seventh batch of new occupations and job types has been announced in China [11] - The Yangtze River fishing ban has achieved phased results [13]