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金属期权:金属期权策略早报-20251210
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-12-10 00:46
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For non - ferrous metals, a seller's neutral volatility strategy can be constructed as they are trending upwards; for the black series, a short - volatility combination strategy suits their large - amplitude fluctuating market; for precious metals, a bull spread combination strategy is recommended due to their rebound [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The latest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various metal futures such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., are presented. For example, the latest price of copper futures (CU2601) is 91,020, down 1,040 with a decline rate of 1.13%, trading volume of 19.04 million lots (down 0.45 million lots), and open interest of 21.06 million lots (down 1.95 million lots) [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR data of various metal options are provided. Volume PCR is used to describe whether the underlying asset's market has a turning point, and open interest PCR is used to describe the strength of the underlying asset's market. For example, the volume PCR of copper options is 0.40 (down 0.02), and the open interest PCR is 0.81 (down 0.01) [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of various metal options are analyzed. For example, the pressure level of copper options is 98,000, and the support level is 84,000 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility data of various metal options are given, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its change, annual average implied volatility, call and put implied volatility, 20 - day historical volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of copper options is 17.04%, and the weighted implied volatility is 20.50% (down 2.24%) [6]. 3.5 Strategy and Suggestions 3.5.1 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Construct a bull spread combination strategy for call options, a short - volatility seller's option combination strategy, and a spot long - hedging strategy [8]. - **Aluminum**: Construct a bull spread combination strategy for call options, a short - call + put option combination strategy with a bullish bias, and a spot collar strategy [9]. - **Zinc**: Construct a short - call + put option combination strategy with a neutral bias and a spot collar strategy [9]. - **Nickel**: Construct a short - call + put option combination strategy with a bearish bias and a spot covered - call strategy [10]. - **Tin**: Construct a bull spread combination strategy for call options, a short - volatility strategy, and a spot collar strategy [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Construct a short - call + put option combination strategy with a neutral bias and a spot long - hedging strategy [11]. 3.5.2 Precious Metals - **Silver**: Construct a bull spread combination strategy for call options, a short - volatility option seller's combination strategy with a bullish bias, and a spot hedging strategy [12]. 3.5.3 Black Series - **Rebar**: Construct a short - call + put option combination strategy with a bearish bias and a spot long - covered - call strategy [13]. - **Iron Ore**: Construct a short - call + put option combination strategy with a bearish bias and a spot long - collar strategy [13]. - **Ferroalloys (Manganese Silicon and Silicon Ferrosilicon)**: For manganese silicon, construct a short - volatility strategy; for industrial silicon, construct a bear spread combination strategy for put options, a short - call + put option combination strategy, and a spot hedging strategy; for glass, construct a bear spread combination strategy for put options, a short - call + put option combination strategy, and a spot long - collar strategy [14][15].
金属期权:金属期权策略早报-20251209
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-12-09 02:25
Report Date and Title - Report date: December 9, 2025 [1] - Report title: Metal Options Strategy Morning Report [1] Research Team - Lu Pinxian, Investment Research Manager, Qualification No.: F3047321, Trading Consultation No.: Z0015541, Email: lupx@wkqh.cn [2] - Huang Kehan, Options Researcher, Qualification No.: F03138607, Phone: 0755 - 23375252, Email: huangkh@wkqh.cn [2] - Li Renjun, Industrial Service, Qualification No.: F03090207, Trading Consultation No.: Z0016947, Email: lirj@wkqh.cn [2] Core Views - For non - ferrous metals, which are showing a bullish upward trend, construct a seller neutral volatility strategy [2] - For the black series, which maintain a large - amplitude volatile market trend, it is suitable to construct a short - volatility combination strategy [2] - For precious metals, which are rebounding and rising, construct a bull spread combination strategy [2] Market Overview of Underlying Futures Copper - Latest price: 92,400, Change: - 40, Change rate: - 0.04%, Volume: 19.49 (ten thousand lots), Volume change: 0.69, Open interest: 23.00 (ten thousand lots), Open interest change: - 0.64 [3] Aluminum - Latest price: 22,120, Change: - 25, Change rate: - 0.11%, Volume: 25.16 (ten thousand lots), Volume change: - 1.00, Open interest: 23.31 (ten thousand lots), Open interest change: - 1.22 [3] Zinc - Latest price: 23,170, Change: 60, Change rate: 0.26%, Volume: 18.03 (ten thousand lots), Volume change: 1.71, Open interest: 10.87 (ten thousand lots), Open interest change: 0.11 [3] Other Metals - Similar data for lead, nickel, tin, alumina, gold, silver, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, polysilicon, rebar, iron ore, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, and glass are also provided [3] Option Factors Volume and Open Interest PCR - Volume PCR and open interest PCR data for various metal options are presented, along with their changes [4] Pressure and Support Levels - Pressure and support levels for different metal options are given, calculated from the strike prices of the maximum open interest of call and put options [5] Implied Volatility - Data on at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its change, annual average, call and put implied volatility, historical volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility are provided for each metal option [6] Strategy and Recommendations Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper options**: Construct a call option bull spread strategy, a short - volatility seller option combination strategy, and a spot long hedging strategy [9] - **Aluminum options**: Construct a call option bull spread strategy, a short call + put option combination strategy, and a spot collar strategy [10] - **Zinc options**: Construct a short neutral call + put option combination strategy and a spot collar strategy [10] - **Nickel options**: Construct a short bearish call + put option combination strategy and a spot covered call strategy [11] - **Tin options**: Construct a call option bull spread strategy, a short - volatility strategy, and a spot collar strategy [11] - **Lithium carbonate options**: Construct a short neutral call + put option combination strategy and a spot long hedging strategy [12] Precious Metals - **Silver options**: Construct a call option bull spread strategy, a short - volatility option seller combination strategy with a bullish bias, and a spot hedging strategy [13] Black Series - **Rebar options**: Construct a short bearish call + put option combination strategy and a spot long covered call strategy [14] - **Iron ore options**: Construct a short bearish call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy [14] - **Ferroalloy options**: For manganese silicon, construct a short - volatility strategy; for industrial silicon, construct a short - volatility call + put option combination strategy; for glass, construct a put option bear spread strategy, a short - volatility call + put option combination strategy, and a long collar strategy [15][16]
能源化工期权:能源化工期权策略早报-20251209
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-12-09 02:25
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy - chemical sector is mainly divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others [9]. - For each sector, options strategies and suggestions are provided for selected varieties [9]. - An options strategy report is prepared for each options variety based on underlying market analysis, options factor research, and options strategy suggestions [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Underlying Futures Market Overview - The report presents data on the latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of various energy - chemical futures, including crude oil, LPG, methanol, etc. For example, the latest price of crude oil (SC2601) is 448, with a decrease of 8 and a decline rate of - 1.84%, and a trading volume of 6.76 million lots [4]. 3.2 Options Factors 3.2.1 Volume - Open Interest PCR - The volume - open interest PCR data of different options varieties are provided, which can be used to describe the strength of the underlying market and the turning point of the market. For instance, the volume PCR of crude oil options is 0.67 with a change of - 0.02, and the open interest PCR is 0.68 with a change of 0.06 [5]. 3.2.2 Pressure and Support Levels - The report shows the pressure and support levels of each option variety from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure level of crude oil is 540 and the support level is 440 [6]. 3.2.3 Implied Volatility - Implied volatility data of various option varieties are given, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatilities. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil is 24.685%, and the weighted implied volatility is 26.17% with a change of - 0.99% [7]. 3.3 Options Strategies and Suggestions for Each Variety 3.3.1 Energy - Related Options (Crude Oil, LPG) - **Crude Oil** - **Underlying Market Analysis**: US crude oil production slightly increased, refinery processing volume rose, and global floating storage increased. The market showed a weak trend [8]. - **Options Factor Research**: Implied volatility was below the average, the open interest PCR was below 0.70, indicating a weak market. The pressure level was 540 and the support level was 430 [8]. - **Options Strategy Suggestions**: Construct a bear - spread put option strategy, a short - biased call + put option combination strategy, and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [8]. - **LPG** - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Crude oil prices fluctuated around $63. The domestic LPG market was relatively strong due to low arrivals and strong chemical demand. The market was in a range - bound state with support below and pressure above [10]. - **Options Factor Research**: Implied volatility was around the average, the open interest PCR was below 0.80, indicating a range - bound market. The pressure level was 4500 and the support level was 4150 [10]. - **Options Strategy Suggestions**: Construct a neutral - biased short call + put option combination strategy and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. 3.3.2 Alcohol - Related Options (Methanol, Ethylene Glycol) - **Methanol** - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Enterprise inventories declined. The market showed a weak trend with pressure above after a rebound [10]. - **Options Factor Research**: Implied volatility was around the historical average, the open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating a weak market. The pressure level was 2300 and the support level was 2000 [10]. - **Options Strategy Suggestions**: Construct a bear - spread put option strategy, a short - biased call + put option combination strategy, and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol** - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Port inventories increased, downstream demand was limited, and the market showed a weak downward trend [11]. - **Options Factor Research**: Implied volatility was above the average and rising, the open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating strong short - side forces. The pressure level was 3900 and the support level was 3850 [11]. - **Options Strategy Suggestions**: Construct a bear - spread put option strategy, a short - volatility strategy, and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.3.3 Olefin - Related Options (PVC, Polypropylene, etc.) - **PVC** - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Inventories were in a build - up cycle, and the market showed a weak downward trend with bearish sentiment [11]. - **Options Factor Research**: Implied volatility decreased to below the average, the open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating a continuous weakening market. The pressure level was 4600 and the support level was 4300 [11]. - **Options Strategy Suggestions**: Construct a bear - spread put option strategy and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. - **Polypropylene** - **Underlying Market Analysis**: No detailed description in the given text. - **Options Factor Research**: Implied volatility was at a certain level, and relevant PCR data were provided [5][106]. - **Options Strategy Suggestions**: No detailed description in the given text. 3.3.4 Rubber - Related Options (Rubber, Synthetic Rubber) - **Rubber** - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Tire production capacity utilization rates changed, and the market showed a weak consolidation trend [12]. - **Options Factor Research**: Implied volatility gradually returned to around the average, the open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating a weak market. The pressure level dropped to 16000 and the support level was 15000 [12]. - **Options Strategy Suggestions**: Construct a neutral - biased short call + put option combination strategy [12]. - **Synthetic Rubber** - **Underlying Market Analysis**: No detailed description in the given text. - **Options Factor Research**: Implied volatility and relevant PCR data were provided [5]. - **Options Strategy Suggestions**: No detailed description in the given text. 3.3.5 Polyester - Related Options (PTA, Short - Fiber, etc.) - **PTA** - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Factory inventories were expected to accumulate, and the market showed a rebound and then a small - range fluctuation trend with pressure above [12]. - **Options Factor Research**: Implied volatility was at a relatively low average level, the open interest PCR was around 0.80, indicating a range - bound market. The pressure level was 4800 and the support level was 4500 [12]. - **Options Strategy Suggestions**: Construct a neutral - biased short call + put option combination strategy [12]. - **Short - Fiber** - **Underlying Market Analysis**: No detailed description in the given text. - **Options Factor Research**: Implied volatility and relevant PCR data were provided [5]. - **Options Strategy Suggestions**: No detailed description in the given text. 3.3.6 Alkali - Related Options (Caustic Soda, Soda Ash) - **Caustic Soda** - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Production capacity utilization increased, and the market showed a weak downward trend [13]. - **Options Factor Research**: Implied volatility was at a high level, the open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating a weak market. The pressure level was 2240 and the support level was 2120 [13]. - **Options Strategy Suggestions**: Construct a bear - spread combination strategy and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. - **Soda Ash** - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Production increased, inventories were at a high level, and the market showed a weak downward oscillation trend [13]. - **Options Factor Research**: Implied volatility was at a relatively high historical level, the open interest PCR was below 0.50, indicating a bearish market. The pressure level was 1860 and the support level was 1100 [13]. - **Options Strategy Suggestions**: Construct a bear - spread combination strategy, a short - volatility combination strategy, and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. 3.3.7 Urea Options - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Supply pressure was alleviated to some extent, and the market showed a low - level oscillation and then a rebound trend [14]. - **Options Factor Research**: Implied volatility was at a relatively low historical average level, the open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating strong short - side pressure. The pressure level was 1800 and the support level was 1660 [14]. - **Options Strategy Suggestions**: Construct a neutral - biased short call + put option combination strategy and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [14].
波动率数据日报-20251208
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-12-08 06:02
波动率数据日报 1、金融期权隐含波动率指数反映截止上一交易日的30日隐波走势,商品期权隐含波动 率指数通过主力月平值期权上下两档隐波加权所得,反映主力合约的隐波变化趋势。2 隐波指数与历史波动率的差值,差值越大反映隐波相对历史波动率越高,差值越小代 表隐波相对历史波动率越低。 1 1000 1000 300 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 05 o.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.1 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 ore 0.7 0 a ● I 0 1 70 -300股指 -- 300股指 IV-HV差 - 50ETF - 50ETF IV-HV美 ZD 20 -- 1000股指 IV-HV差 500ETF -- 1000股指 - 500ETF IV-HV美 20 10 10 日报 IV-HV美 IV-HV美 tte rop Por 18/12/15 875/226 - 豆粕 IV-HV差 塑和 玉米 IV-HV差 王米 30 50 20 30 20 10 10 0 TO 10 10 30 40 IV-HV美 日 護 25 30 IV-HV美 棉花 棉花 25 20 20 20 10 15 5 0 ...
波动率数据日报-20251205
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-12-05 12:14
波动率数据日报 永安期货期权总部 隐含波动率分位数排名 历史波动率分位数排名 0. 72 更新时间: 2025/12/5 、隐含波动率指数、历史波动率及其价差走势图 1、金融期权隐含波动率指数反映截止上一交易日的30日隐波走势,商品期权隐含波动 率指数通过主力月平值期权上下两档隐波加权所得,反映主力合约的隐波变化趋势。2 隐波指数与历史波动率的差值,差值越大反映隐波相对历史波动率越高,差值越小代 表隐波相对历史波动率越低。 70 300股指 -- 300股指 IV-HV差 - 50ETF - 50ETF IV-HV美 ZD 20 -- 1000股指 IV-HV差 500ETF - 500ETF -- 1000股指 IV-HV美 ZID 10 20 10 日报 IV-HV美 IV-HV美 tte SISTING 60 40 豆粕 IV-HV差 塑和 IV-HV差 玉米 王米 30 50 20 20 30 40 10 10 0 10 10 IC ·40 40 0 30 10 30 40 IV-HV美 白糖 白糖 30 25 IV-HV差 棉花 棉花 25 20 20 20 10 15 5 0 10 10 TO 2 ...
能源化工期权:能源化工期权策略早报-20251205
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-12-05 04:52
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical industry is divided into several sectors including energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others [9] - For each sector, specific options are selected to provide option strategies and suggestions [9] - Option strategy reports for each option variety are prepared based on the analysis of the underlying market, option factor research, and option strategy recommendations [9] - It is recommended to construct option portfolio strategies mainly as sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered call strategies to enhance returns [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview | Option Variety | Latest Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume (in 10,000 lots) | Volume Change | Open Interest (in 10,000 lots) | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Crude Oil | 457 | 5 | 1.15% | 6.65 | -2.28 | 2.98 | -0.17 | | Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) | 4,310 | 9 | 0.21% | 5.39 | 0 | 6.84 | -0.16 | | Methanol | 2,107 | -11 | -0.52% | 105.31 | 5.68 | 93.47 | -1.37 | | Ethylene Glycol | 3,781 | -40 | -1.05% | 12.60 | -9.17 | 29.52 | -0.41 | | Polypropylene | 6,331 | -21 | -0.33% | 20.60 | -2.21 | 45.02 | -0.97 | | Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) | 4,481 | -22 | -0.49% | 59.49 | 0.57 | 99.01 | -3.13 | | Plastic | 6,735 | -48 | -0.71% | 21.01 | 2.37 | 38.65 | -1.62 | | Styrene | 6,563 | -11 | -0.17% | 33.86 | -6.88 | 27.96 | -1.70 | | Rubber | 15,100 | 5 | 0.03% | 8.77 | -1.42 | 4.86 | -0.94 | | Synthetic Rubber | 10,460 | -25 | -0.24% | 9.15 | -3.12 | 3.21 | -0.69 | | p-Xylene | 6,850 | -22 | -0.32% | 2.95 | -2.84 | 3.76 | -0.02 | | Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA) | 4,702 | -20 | -0.42% | 49.07 | -0.93 | 82.44 | -3.52 | | Short Fiber | 6,244 | -22 | -0.35% | 1.29 | 0.35 | 2.11 | -0.13 | | Bottle Chip | 5,660 | -34 | -0.60% | 1.27 | -0.47 | 1.62 | -0.12 | | Caustic Soda | 2,120 | -26 | -1.21% | 22.01 | -7.02 | 16.96 | -0.38 | | Soda Ash | 1,147 | -8 | -0.69% | 66.89 | -4.22 | 106.67 | -3.64 | | Urea | 1,688 | -2 | -0.12% | 15.60 | 3.54 | 20.93 | -0.03 | [4] 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The PCR indicators are used to describe the strength of the underlying option market and the turning point of the market. The open interest PCR is the ratio of put option open interest to call option open interest, and the trading volume PCR is the ratio of put option trading volume to call option trading volume [5] 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of the underlying option are determined by the strike prices with the largest open interest in call and put options [6] 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility includes at-the-money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, call option implied volatility, and put option implied volatility. The weighted implied volatility is calculated using trading volume - weighted average [7] 3.5 Option Strategies and Suggestions 3.5.1 Energy - related Options - **Crude Oil** - **Underlying Market Analysis**: US refinery demand has stabilized and recovered. Shale oil production has slightly declined, and refineries have increased diesel output due to arbitrage demand. OPEC's short - term supply is flat, Libyan exports have quickly recovered, and Russian exports are not blocked. In the Middle East, Kuwait's refinery has resumed operation earlier than expected, weakening the support for low - sulfur fuel oil [8] - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of crude oil options fluctuates above the average level; the open interest PCR is below 0.80, indicating a weak market; the pressure level is 540, and the support level is 430 [8] - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct a bear spread strategy with put options for directional returns; construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for option time value and directional returns; construct a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)** - **Underlying Market Analysis**: US propane inventory is starting to decline but remains at a historical high. The cost - end crude oil is under pressure from oversupply and geopolitical issues, and the LPG price has shown a market trend of over - sold rebound and slight consolidation [10] - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of LPG options has significantly decreased to near the average level; the open interest PCR is around 0.80, indicating a weak market; the pressure level is 4500, and the support level is 4150 [10] - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct a long - biased call + put option combination strategy for option time value and directional returns; construct a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] 3.5.2 Alcohol - related Options - **Methanol** - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Port inventory has decreased, and enterprise inventory is at a relatively low level. The market sentiment has improved, and the methanol price has shown a trend of over - sold rebound [10] - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of methanol options fluctuates around the historical average level; the open interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating a weakly oscillating market; the pressure level is 2300, and the support level is 2000 [10] - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct a bear spread strategy with put options for directional returns; construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for option time value; construct a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] - **Ethylene Glycol** - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Port inventory is expected to increase at a slower pace, and the supply - demand balance sheet is expected to improve. The ethylene glycol price has shown a weak market trend [11] - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of ethylene glycol options fluctuates below the average level; the open interest PCR is below 0.70, indicating strong short - side power; the pressure level is 4500, and the support level is 3500 [11] - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct a bear spread strategy with put options for directional returns; construct a short - volatility strategy for time value returns; construct a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] 3.5.3 Polyolefin - related Options - **Polypropylene** - **Underlying Market Analysis**: PE and PP production and trading enterprise inventories have decreased. The polypropylene price has shown a weak market trend [11] - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of polypropylene options has decreased to near the average level; the open interest PCR is around 0.70, indicating a weak market; the pressure level is 7000, and the support level is 6300 [11] - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct a bear spread strategy with put options for directional returns; construct a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] 3.5.4 Rubber - related Options - **Rubber** - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The exchange's rubber inventory and warehouse receipts are expected to significantly decrease. The rubber price has shown a weakly oscillating market trend [12] - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of rubber options has decreased to near the average level after a sharp rise; the open interest PCR is below 0.60; the pressure level is 16000, and the support level is 15000 [12] - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy for option time value and directional returns [12] 3.5.5 Polyester - related Options - **PTA** - **Underlying Market Analysis**: PTA social inventory is decreasing, and the downstream load remains high. The PTA price has shown a rebound trend [12] - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of PTA options fluctuates above the average level; the open interest PCR is around 0.70, indicating an oscillating market; the pressure level is 4700, and the support level is 4300 [12] - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy for option time value [12] 3.5.6 Alkali - related Options - **Caustic Soda** - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Supply is sufficient, and downstream demand is weak. The caustic soda price has shown a weak short - side market trend [13] - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of caustic soda options fluctuates at a relatively high level; the open interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating a weak market; the pressure level is 3000, and the support level is 2200 [13] - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct a bear spread strategy for directional returns; construct a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13] - **Soda Ash** - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Factory inventory has decreased. The soda ash price has shown a low - level weak oscillating market trend [13] - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of soda ash options fluctuates at a relatively high historical level; the open interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating strong short - side pressure; the pressure level is 1860, and the support level is 1100 [13] - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct a bear spread strategy for directional returns; construct a short - volatility combination strategy for volatility returns; construct a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13] 3.5.7 Other Options - Urea - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Enterprise inventory has decreased, and port inventory is expected to increase. The urea price has shown a trend of low - level oscillation and gradual rebound [14] - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of urea options fluctuates slightly around the historical average level; the open interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating strong short - side pressure; the pressure level is 1800, and the support level is 1600 [14] - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct a long - biased call + put option combination strategy for option time value and directional returns; construct a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14]
金属期权:金属期权策略早报-20251205
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-12-05 04:46
Report Summary - **Report Date**: December 5, 2025 [1] - **Report Title**: Metal Options Strategy Morning Report 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - For non - ferrous metals showing a bullish upward trend, construct a neutral volatility strategy for sellers [2]. - For the black series with large - amplitude fluctuations, construct a short - volatility portfolio strategy [2]. - For precious metals rebounding and rising, construct a bull spread portfolio strategy [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview | Option Variety | Latest Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Volume (10,000 lots) | Volume Change | Open Interest (10,000 lots) | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 90,960 | 170 | 0.19 | 22.53 | 9.93 | 23.46 | 1.06 | | Aluminum | 22,235 | 175 | 0.79 | 24.64 | 8.48 | 24.45 | - 0.48 | | Zinc | 23,010 | 170 | 0.74 | 16.43 | 5.79 | 10.57 | 0.11 | | Lead | 17,305 | 120 | 0.70 | 3.73 | 1.03 | 4.66 | 0 | | Nickel | 117,700 | - 30 | - 0.03 | 10.33 | - 0.91 | 11.80 | - 0.06 | | Tin | 320,070 | 1,690 | 0.53 | 34.50 | 13.90 | 5.21 | - 0.10 | | Alumina | 2,590 | - 30 | - 1.15 | 18.44 | - 2.01 | 32.93 | - 1.51 | | Gold | 958.46 | 0.82 | 0.09 | 31.05 | 1.04 | 19.76 | - 0.02 | | Silver | 13,366 | - 260 | - 1.91 | 228.09 | - 38.35 | 45.24 | - 0.61 | | Lithium Carbonate | 92,400 | - 1,140 | - 1.22 | 1.20 | 0.03 | 2.62 | 0.04 | | Industrial Silicon | 8,925 | - 35 | - 0.39 | 1.65 | 0.13 | 6.76 | 0.46 | | Polysilicon | 55,520 | 300 | 0.54 | 1.76 | 0.41 | 3.20 | 0.22 | | Rebar | 3,148 | 11 | 0.35 | 32.20 | - 5.18 | 62.75 | - 5.02 | | Iron Ore | 791.50 | - 2.00 | - 0.25 | 18.67 | 1.72 | 29.37 | - 4.11 | | Manganese Silicon | 5,778 | 38 | 0.66 | 13.60 | 3.36 | 16.11 | - 3.89 | | Ferrosilicon | 5,468 | 60 | 1.11 | 4.00 | 1.88 | 5.58 | - 1.40 | | Glass | 1,008 | 0 | 0.00 | 116.38 | - 5.97 | 125.61 | - 3.22 | [3] 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The PCR indicators are mainly used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market [4] 3.2.1 Volume PCR | Option Variety | Volume PCR | Volume PCR Change | | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 0.39 | 0.03 | | Aluminum | 0.26 | - 0.02 | | Zinc | 0.32 | - 0.29 | | Lead | 0.37 | - 0.04 | | Nickel | 0.34 | - 0.10 | | Tin | 0.42 | 0.12 | | Alumina | 0.44 | 0.14 | | Gold | 0.36 | - 0.12 | | Silver | 0.79 | 0.21 | | Lithium Carbonate | 0.85 | 0.05 | | Industrial Silicon | 0.75 | 0.21 | | Polysilicon | 0.95 | 0.02 | | Rebar | 0.54 | - 0.07 | | Iron Ore | 1.27 | - 0.42 | | Manganese Silicon | 0.41 | - 0.13 | | Ferrosilicon | 0.34 | - 0.33 | | Glass | 0.89 | 0.26 | [4] 3.2.2 Open Interest PCR | Option Variety | Open Interest PCR | Open Interest PCR Change | | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 0.83 | 0.06 | | Aluminum | 0.57 | - 0.02 | | Zinc | 0.94 | - 0.05 | | Lead | 0.77 | - 0.02 | | Nickel | 0.57 | 0 | | Tin | 0.85 | 0.19 | | Alumina | 0.23 | 0 | | Gold | 0.56 | - 0.01 | | Silver | 1.34 | 0.03 | | Lithium Carbonate | 0.82 | - 0.02 | | Industrial Silicon | 0.45 | - 0.01 | | Polysilicon | 1.30 | - 0.17 | | Rebar | 0.59 | 0.01 | | Iron Ore | 1.68 | 0.01 | | Manganese Silicon | 0.67 | - 0.01 | | Ferrosilicon | 0.79 | - 0.02 | | Glass | 0.35 | - 0.02 | [4] 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels | Option Variety | Pressure Point | Support Point | | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 90,000 | 84,000 | | Aluminum | 22,000 | 21,000 | | Zinc | 23,000 | 22,000 | | Lead | 18,000 | 16,800 | | Nickel | 120,000 | 110,000 | | Tin | 335,000 | 290,000 | | Alumina | 3,000 | 2,700 | | Gold | 1,000 | 904 | | Silver | 14,000 | 12,000 | | Lithium Carbonate | 100,000 | 80,000 | | Industrial Silicon | 10,000 | 8,600 | | Polysilicon | 60,000 | 50,000 | | Rebar | 3,200 | 3,000 | | Iron Ore | 900 | 700 | | Manganese Silicon | 6,000 | 5,700 | | Ferrosilicon | 5,700 | 5,400 | | Glass | 1,620 | 1,000 | [5] 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility | Option Variety | At - the - Money Implied Volatility (%) | Weighted Implied Volatility (%) | Weighted Implied Volatility Change | Annual Average | Call Implied Volatility (%) | Put Implied Volatility (%) | HISV20 | Implied - Historical Volatility Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 19.25 | 22.29 | 1.88 | 17.99 | 23.58 | 18.96 | 15.73 | 3.52 | | Aluminum | 11.89 | 13.42 | 0.44 | 12.40 | 13.63 | 12.61 | 11.10 | 0.79 | | Zinc | 11.19 | 12.59 | 1.44 | 14.21 | 12.80 | 11.92 | 10.89 | 0.30 | | Lead | 10.65 | 13.33 | - 0.22 | 14.69 | 13.80 | 12.09 | 12.51 | - 1.87 | | Nickel | 12.81 | 16.06 | 0.55 | 23.31 | 16.47 | 14.87 | 15.81 | - 3.00 | | Tin | 28.28 | 30.46 | 0.86 | 26.69 | 31.53 | 27.93 | 22.76 | 5.51 | | Alumina | 19.41 | 23.99 | - 0.24 | 29.19 | 26.09 | 19.19 | 22.57 | - 3.16 | | Gold | 20.78 | 24.39 | 0.68 | 22.13 | 25.89 | 20.22 | 22.50 | - 1.72 | | Silver | 38.38 | 40.10 | - 3.26 | 29.82 | 39.95 | 40.28 | 30.87 | 7.51 | | Lithium Carbonate | 34.80 | 34.24 | - 2.89 | 39.79 | 36.20 | 31.95 | 34.89 | - 0.09 | | Industrial Silicon | 20.04 | 23.73 | - 0.32 | 33.57 | 26.65 | 19.84 | 23.29 | - 3.25 | | Polysilicon | 32.67 | 41.71 | 0.84 | 44.01 | 41.23 | 42.22 | 35.36 | - 2.69 | | Rebar | 11.38 | 13.62 | - 0.08 | 16.55 | 13.67 | 13.52 | 13.76 | - 2.38 | | Iron Ore | 16.90 | 18.52 | - 0.47 | 21.46 | 17.28 | 19.49 | 18.84 | - 1.94 | | Manganese Silicon | 12.86 | 14.67 | 0.16 | 21.90 | 14.94 | 14.01 | 13.95 | - 1.09 | | Ferrosilicon | 14.86 | 15.63 | 1.86 | 23.13 | 16.01 | 14.49 | 15.00 | - 0.14 | | Glass | 25.78 | 29.36 | - 1.29 | 36.84 | 31.97 | 26.41 | 30.56 | - 4.79 | [6] 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations 3.5.1 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper Options**: Construct a call option bull spread strategy, a short - volatility seller option portfolio strategy, and a spot long - hedging strategy [8] - **Aluminum Options**: Construct a call option bull spread strategy, a short call + put option portfolio strategy with a bullish bias, and a spot collar strategy [9] - **Zinc Options**: Construct a short call + put option portfolio strategy with a neutral bias and a spot collar strategy [9] - **Nickel Options**: Construct a short call + put option portfolio strategy with a bearish bias and a spot covered - call strategy [10] - **Tin Options**: Construct a call option bull spread strategy, a short - volatility strategy, and a spot collar strategy [10] - **Lithium Carbonate Options**: Construct a short call + put option portfolio strategy with a bullish bias and a spot long - hedging strategy [11] 3.5.2 Precious Metals (Silver) - Construct a short - volatility option seller portfolio strategy with a bullish bias and a spot hedging strategy [12] 3.5.3 Black Series - **Rebar Options**: Construct a short call + put option portfolio strategy with a bearish bias and a spot covered - call strategy [13] - **Iron Ore Options**: Construct a short call + put option portfolio strategy with a bearish bias and a spot long - collar strategy [13] - **Ferroalloy Options (Manganese Silicon)**: Construct a short - volatility strategy [14] - **Industrial Silicon Options**: Construct a short call + put option portfolio strategy to short volatility and a spot long - hedging strategy [14] - **Glass Options**: Construct a short call + put option portfolio strategy to short volatility and a spot long - collar strategy [15]
波动率数据日报-20251203
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-12-03 14:47
波动率数据日报 永安期货期权总部 更新时间: 2025/12/3 一、隐含波动率指数、历史波动率及其价差走势图 0.80 ईम्न 65 0.59 PTA 0.71 45 0.40 15 0.68 50ETF 0.30 五年 0.57 PTA 0.26 白街 0.24 PVC | 0.15 天峻 0.16 r 天殿 0.12 300粒指 0.11 下米 0.10 雪 好 0.08 铁,4,6 0.05 50ETF 0.08 台新 0.05 线,46 0.04 L 雄花 PVC 0.01 0.00 棒花 互能 0.00 0 0.2 03 0.1 0.4 05 0.6 0.7 0.8 0 a 0.1 0 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.8 1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0 a 1 免费声明:本文所有内得均不符成改造仪、对文中信息的准确推料免费性不作任何保证;仅供学习交流。技资录像此作出的任何投资决策与产企司无关、授权仪为我 公司所有、未来市面许可。任何比高科个人不得以年同形式相談。提到发布。如引用、行发、规定明出处为水安和货公司、且不得进行有浮聚富的引用、量节科健改。 0.81 1、金融期权隐含波动率指数反映截止上一交 ...
金属期权:金属期权策略早报-20251203
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-12-03 01:43
金属期权 2025-12-03 金属期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号:F3047321 | 交易咨询号:Z0015541 | 邮箱:lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号:F03138607 | 电话:0755-23375252 | 邮箱:huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号:F03090207 | 交易咨询号:Z0016947 | 邮箱:lirj@wkqh.cn | 金属期权策略早报概要:(1)有色金属偏多上行,构建卖方中性波动率策略策略;(2)黑色系维持大幅度波动的 行情走势,适合构建做空波动率组合策略;(3)贵金属反弹回暖上升,构建牛市价差组合策略。 表1:标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | (%) | (万手) | | ...
波动率数据日报-20251201
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-12-01 06:45
Core View - The report provides data on the implied volatility index, historical volatility, and their spreads of financial and commodity options, as well as the quantile rankings of implied volatility and volatility spreads, to reflect the relative levels of implied volatility of different options [3][5] Summary by Related Catalog Implied Volatility Index, Historical Volatility, and Their Spread Chart - The financial option implied volatility index reflects the 30 - day implied volatility trend as of the previous trading day, and the commodity option implied volatility index is obtained by weighting the implied volatilities of the two - strike prices above and below the at - the - money option of the main contract, reflecting the implied volatility change trend of the main contract. The larger the difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility, the higher the implied volatility relative to historical volatility; the smaller the difference, the lower the implied volatility relative to historical volatility [3] Implied Volatility Quantile and Volatility Spread Quantile Ranking Chart - Implied volatility quantile represents the current level of a variety's implied volatility in history. A high quantile means the current implied volatility is high, and a low quantile means it is low. Volatility spread is the implied volatility index minus historical volatility [5]