2025年05月18日 证券研究报告|行业研究|行业点评 非银金融 非银行业周报（2025年第十六期） 并购六条正式落地 关注券商重组机会 增持 维持评级 市场表现: 本期（2025.5.12-2025.5.16）非银(申万)指数+2.49%、行业排 2/31,券商Ⅱ指 数+2.18%,保险II指数+3.58%; 上证综指+0.76%，深证成指+0.52%，创业板指+1.38%。 个股涨跌幅排名前五位：红塔证券（+13.84%）、锦龙股份（+13.18%）、瑞达 期货（+10.28%）、中国人保（+10.20%）、广发证券（+6.09%）； 个股涨跌幅排名后五位：中油资本（-2.66%）、海南华铁（-2.35%）、香溢融通 (-1.68%）、东北证券（-1.47%）、中粮资本（-0.92%）。 (注：去除 ST 及退市股票) 核心观点: 证券: 市场层面,本周,证券板块上涨 2.18%,跑赢沪深 300 指数 1.07pct,跑赢上证综 指数 1.42pct。当前券商板块 PB 估值为 1.33 倍，位于 2020 年 20 分位点附近，处 于历史低位。 本周,5 月 16 日,证监会发布了《关于修改＜上市公 ...

Group 1: Green Finance Development - In 2024, China's real economy is accelerating its green transformation, with green finance development being expedited through improved top-level design and the introduction of national-level green finance documents [1][2] - The latest version of the "Guidance Catalog for Green and Low-Carbon Transition Industries" emphasizes the importance of transition finance and identifies key industries that should be prioritized for support during the green transition [1][2] - The national carbon market is experiencing increased marketization, with expectations of expansion leading to a rise in average carbon prices and a significant increase in trading volumes compared to the previous year [1][2] Group 2: Integration of Green, Technology, and Digital Finance - The integration of green finance, technology finance, and digital finance is accelerating, driven by the transformation of the real economy towards green, technological, and digital advancements [2][3] - The State Council has issued guidelines to establish a framework for the collaborative development of these three types of finance, which is crucial for achieving carbon neutrality goals and fostering new productive forces [2][3] Group 3: Transition Finance as a Key Direction - Transition finance will remain a significant focus, with the top-level design and standard system expected to be further refined by 2025, particularly in high-pollution and high-energy-consuming industries [7][8] - The issuance scale of transition bonds is projected to reach 71.342 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 43% increase year-on-year, with various financial tools expected to continue innovating [8] Group 4: Passive Green Financial Products - The capital market is creating opportunities for passive green financial products, with the introduction of policies encouraging index-based and passive investment [9][10] - By the end of 2024, the number of ESG indices published by the China Securities Index Company is expected to reach 147, covering various asset classes, with significant growth in green ETFs [9][10] Group 5: Multi-layered Green Finance Market Development - By 2025, the construction of infrastructure for the national carbon market and voluntary emission reduction trading market (CCER) will be accelerated, enhancing the green finance market [11][12] - The establishment of environmental rights trading markets and platforms will be crucial for creating a multi-layered green finance market, promoting the marketization of resource and environmental factors [13] Group 6: Strengthening Price Signals and Green Premium - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is expected to enhance the role of capital markets in green price discovery, which is essential for the development of green finance [15][16] - Efforts will be made to address information asymmetry and promote the internalization of external environmental costs by enterprises, which is vital for establishing a green premium [17][18] Group 7: International Cooperation on Climate Governance - China aims to strengthen international cooperation in climate governance, particularly in response to challenges posed by the delayed submission of national contributions under the Paris Agreement [19][21] - The country will actively engage in discussions with the EU and other regions regarding carbon tariffs and explore the establishment of offshore carbon trading markets [20][21]

倪泽望强调，重构科技金融利益链条，相关利益只能从创始股 东目前持有的高比例股份中分配出来。过高的持股比例让这些 创始股东在企业上市后身价暴涨多少亿，事实上没有必要，最 多30%就够了。 作者：老盈盈 封图：图虫创意 倪泽望表示，在所有的科技金融链条中，大家想到的第一个能赚到钱的是上市公司的股东，特别是 创始股东，是能赚到大钱的。中国这些年诞生了许多首富，大多是通过股市变现成为首富的。但 A 股市场的上市公司有个问题，就是创始人股东的占股比例过高，比美国纳斯达克等海外市场都 要要高。美国的上市公司不像中国的上市公司那样，其大多是基金公司控股的，并没有所谓的实际 控制人，乔布斯也会被赶出苹果公司，就是因为他持有苹果公司的股份很少。 倪泽望同时强调，重构科技金融利益链条，相关利益只能从创始股东目前持有的高比例股份中分配 出来。有的上市公司的创始股东在上市之前持有该公司 50% 以上的股份，有的甚至高达 70% 至 80% ，过高的持股比例让这些创始股东在企业上市后身价暴涨多少亿，事实上没有必要，最多 30% 就够了。 在倪泽望看来，这些上市公司的股份就是利益，这些利益在科技金融链条里或许可以考虑这样进行 重新分配 ...

Core Insights - Dongguan's Songshan Lake Technology Financial Cluster is being developed as a new highland for technology finance in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, with a focus on integrating policy, capital, and industry resources to support high-quality development [2][5][8]. Group 1: Development and Structure - The Songshan Lake Technology Financial Cluster officially started construction in March 2023, with a planned area of 5,200 acres, including a 750-acre initial zone [6][8]. - The cluster aims to create a comprehensive financial service system covering the entire lifecycle of technological innovation, with a focus on policy innovation, institutional aggregation, and product innovation [8][33]. Group 2: Financial Ecosystem - Over 220 financial service institutions and funds have already settled in the park, with the number and scale of funds leading the city [15][21]. - The cluster has attracted significant capital, with 184 registered funds totaling an investment scale of 96.2 billion yuan, accounting for 75% of the city's total [15][21]. Group 3: Strategic Importance - The establishment of the cluster aligns with national and provincial policies aimed at promoting technology finance as a key driver for innovation and industrial upgrading [8][9][35]. - Songshan Lake is positioned as a core engine for Dongguan's high-quality development, housing 770 national high-tech enterprises and major industry leaders [9][11]. Group 4: Policy and Innovation - The cluster is set to implement various supportive policies, including a 1 billion yuan risk compensation fund for small and micro enterprises, aimed at enhancing financing accessibility [17][31]. - A series of innovative financial products and services are being introduced to support startups and growing enterprises, including angel loans and batch guarantees [17][21]. Group 5: Collaborative Financial Services - The cluster promotes a multi-dimensional financial ecosystem where banks, venture capital, and other financial institutions collaborate to provide comprehensive services to enterprises [26][28]. - Initiatives like the "stock-loan-guarantee" service teams have been established to enhance financing efficiency and meet diverse funding needs across different business stages [26][28].

2025年05月18日 证券研究报告|行业研究|行业点评 非银金融 非银行业周报（2025年第十六期） 并购六条正式落地 关注券商重组机会 市场表现: 本期（2025.5.12-2025.5.16）非银(申万)指数+2.49%、行业排 2/31,券商Ⅱ指 数+2.18%,保险II指数+3.58%; 上证综指+0.76%，深证成指+0.52%，创业板指+1.38%。 个股涨跌幅排名前五位：红塔证券（+13.84%）、锦龙股份（+13.18%）、瑞达 期货（+10.28%）、中国人保（+10.20%）、广发证券（+6.09%）； 个股涨跌幅排名后五位：中油资本（-2.66%）、海南华铁（-2.35%）、香溢融通 (-1.68%）、东北证券（-1.47%）、中粮资本（-0.92%）。 (注：去除 ST 及退市股票) 核心观点: 证券: 市场层面,本周,证券板块上涨 2.18%,跑赢沪深 300 指数 1.07pct,跑赢上证综 指数 1.42pct。当前券商板块 PB 估值为 1.33 倍，位于 2020 年 20 分位点附近，处 于历史低位。 本周,5 月 16 日,证监会发布了《关于修改＜上市公司重大资产重组管 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macroeconomic data shows a mixed picture, with some indicators stable and others showing fluctuations. For example, GDP growth remained stable in Q1 2025, while manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs declined in April [1]. - The commodity market has various developments, including adjustments in oil prices, potential supply - demand changes in metals, and progress in energy and agricultural sectors [2][3][6][7]. - In the financial market, there are significant changes in bond yields, exchange rates, and stock market trends, influenced by factors such as monetary policy, trade policies, and corporate events [19][24][29]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data - GDP growth in Q1 2025 was 5.4% year - on - year, unchanged from the previous quarter but slightly higher than the same period last year [1]. - Manufacturing PMI in April 2025 dropped to 49.0%, down from 50.5% in the previous month and 50.4% in the same period last year [1]. - Non - manufacturing PMI: Business activity in April 2025 was 50.4%, lower than 50.8% in the previous month and 51.2% in the same period last year [1]. - Social financing scale increment in April 2025 was significantly lower than the previous month, at - 658 billion yuan compared to 5896.1 billion yuan in March [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - Domestic refined oil prices are expected to be cut by about 230 yuan/ton on May 19, 2025, the fifth decrease this year [2]. - After the mutual tariff cuts between China and the US, freight volume between the two countries has recovered and increased, and US merchants are seeking new cooperation in China [2][11]. - Anti - dumping duties will be imposed on imported copolymerized polyoxymethylene from the US, the EU, Taiwan region, and Japan starting from May 19, 2025 [2]. 3.2.2 Metal - The London Metal Exchange plans to set a position limit to curb excessive speculation [3]. - With the upcoming US copper and aluminum tariffs, the US is experiencing a rush to import copper, with imports surging from about 70,000 tons per month to 500,000 tons per month [3]. - Morgan Stanley believes that the global copper and aluminum markets will be in a state of supply - demand balance to oversupply in 2025 [3]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Hyundai Steel will close its rebar factory in Incheon, South Korea, in April [4]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - China's first offshore CCUS well has been drilled in the Enping 15 - 1 platform in the South China Sea, with the potential to inject over 1 million tons of carbon dioxide into the seabed in 10 years and increase oil production by 200,000 tons [6]. - The construction of the 2 - gigawatt CNGD Delingha solar - thermal storage integrated project in Qinghai is in full swing [6]. - As of the end of February 2025, China's non - fossil energy power generation capacity reached 2 billion kilowatts for the first time, accounting for 58.8% of the total power generation capacity [6]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - The spring sowing of grain in China has covered over 35 million mu, with progress similar to last year. Early rice seedlings are over half - grown, and nearly 10% has been transplanted [7]. - In 2024, the global coffee price soared by 38.8%, and Brazil's domestic coffee price increased by nearly 40%, affecting the cooperation model between international buyers and Brazilian exporters [7]. - The US Department of Agriculture reported that the number of pigs and piglets in the US is 74.512 million [7]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - The central bank net - withdrew 475.1 billion yuan from the open market last week, and 486 billion yuan of reverse repos will mature this week [9]. - On May 16, the central bank conducted 106.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repos at an interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 2.95 billion yuan [9]. 3.3.2 Key News - The National Bureau of Statistics will release April economic data on Monday, and the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference to introduce the economic situation [10]. - Financial regulators have expressed support for Beijing's development in the financial sector, including promoting technology finance and strengthening the function of the national financial management center [10]. - The pilot of spot - housing sales is being promoted, but the timing for full implementation is not yet mature [10][11]. 3.3.3 Bond Market - Treasury bond futures declined slightly, and most bond yields increased. The overnight and 7 - day repurchase rates for deposit - taking institutions rose significantly [19]. - The issuance of two batches of technological innovation bonds by New Hope Group and Tongwei Co., Ltd. was successful, with issuance scales of 500 million yuan each [14]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.2037 on May 16, up 95 points from the previous trading day, and rose 424 points last week [24]. - The US dollar index rose 0.15% in late New York trading, and most non - US currencies declined [24]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CICC believes that after the Sino - US Geneva talks, bilateral tariff cuts will reduce the risk of a US economic recession and make the Fed more concerned about inflation [26]. - Guosheng Fixed - Income argues that credit demand is still bottoming out in April, and the loose monetary policy environment may continue [26]. 3.4 Stock Market Key News - The Hong Kong stock market has been performing well this year, and a major new energy company will list on the HKEX on May 20, making Hong Kong the world's leading IPO market in terms of fundraising [29]. - Since May, the A - share market has seen increasing institutional research, with a focus on high - end manufacturing, semiconductors, and healthcare [29]. - CITIC Construction Investment maintains a range - bound view of the A - share market but raises the oscillation center to near the half - year line [30].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the launch of the "National Venture Capital Guiding Fund" aimed at supporting technology innovation and addressing the financing needs of technology enterprises throughout their lifecycle [2][3][4] - The fund is expected to mobilize nearly 1 trillion yuan in local and social capital, focusing on hard technology and long-term investments, with a lifespan of 20 years [3][4][5] - The fund aims to resolve the "reluctance to invest" issue faced by state-owned venture capital due to traditional capital preservation mechanisms, thus promoting investment in high-risk, long-cycle technology projects [6][9] Group 2 - The policy measures emphasize the establishment of a specialized mechanism for bank credit support for technology innovation, including a recommendation system for technology enterprises [10] - The pilot program for technology enterprise merger loans has been initiated in several cities, allowing loans to cover up to 80% of the transaction value and extending the loan term to 10 years [11]

科技金融是实现科技与金融双向促进，推动新质生产力发展的重要支撑。金融"五篇大文章"中，科技金 融位居首位。 近年来，从中央到地方，一系列支持科技创新的金融举措加速落地，我国金融支持科技创新的深度和广 度不断提升。目前，我国已经初步形成银行信贷、资本市场、债券市场和创业投资等多层次、多元化的 科技金融服务体系。 如何为科技创新注入更强的金融动力，记者采访了国家金融与发展实验室副主任杨涛。 记者：如何满足科技企业和科技创新的金融服务需求？ 杨涛：为科技创新提供更好金融服务，至少应该考虑以下两方面问题。第一，兼顾科技企业与科技创新 活动。一方面，各类科技企业是科技创新的核心力量，只有满足好科技企业的各种金融需求，才能在微 观层面上保障中国特色自主创新的顺利推进。另一方面，传统产业与企业相对缺乏科技创新能力，获得 科技金融支持的可能性相对低，如果能通过加强金融服务激发传统产业与企业的创新活力，就可能使科 技强国建设获得更广泛的基础。 杨涛：首先，要以系统化思维推动科技金融体制改革。一则，构建同科技创新相适应的科技金融体制， 更需推动供给侧结构性改革，不应该静态、片面地追求特定金融产品的规模与数量，要更加动态平衡、 结 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the importance of financial support and services provided by banks to technology companies, particularly in the context of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [1][2][3] - Kungfu Robotics has developed advanced industrial robots capable of performing tasks such as quality inspection and material handling, and has signed a project for an annual production of 1,000 units, but faced challenges in funding and timely production startup [1] - Postal Savings Bank quickly responded to Kungfu Robotics' funding needs by facilitating a loan, enabling the company to enter a high-speed development phase and apply its mobile robots in various industries [1][2] Group 2 - Agricultural Bank of China has introduced a specialized credit evaluation system for technology companies, providing tailored financial support to address the challenges of high financing costs and access to loans [3] - Fenghai Technology, a national-level specialized enterprise, received a loan of 11 million yuan from Agricultural Bank, which helped the company expand its production capacity in response to the growing demand in the smart home market [3] - The data from the People's Bank of China indicates that by the end of 2024, the long-term loan balances for high-tech manufacturing and advanced manufacturing in Guangdong are projected to be 1.3 trillion yuan and 1.6 trillion yuan, respectively, with significant year-on-year growth [4]

◎记者 黄坤 经历4月信贷"小月"后，5月信贷投放有望改善。 上海证券报记者近日从业内了解到，伴随一揽子政策落地，5月信贷增长可能明显好于4月，并且银行信 贷投放节奏更注重均衡和质效提升。投向上，银行加大了科技金融、普惠金融等领域的投放力度；零售 方面，消费贷仍是各家银行发力的主战场。 一些银行近期披露的机构投资者调研纪要还"剧透"了经营动向。面对净息差收窄、竞争加剧的市场环 境，银行正在想方设法推进业务，稳住经营业绩。 预计5月信贷投放明显改善 记者自业内了解到，预计5月信贷投放有明显改善。 一家股份制银行上海分行公司部总经理向记者说，进入5月，银行信贷投放明显更加注重质量和均衡， 信贷经理都在外面忙着跑客户，以完成月度和年中考核指标。 科技金融正成为银行发力的重中之重。"'五篇大文章'是带动银行经营能力持续提升的重要方向。"前述 股份制银行上海分行人士说，目前金融资源向科技型企业倾斜更多，希望通过培育专业特色，帮助该行 赢得未来的核心竞争力。 光大证券首席固收分析师张旭判断，5月出台了大量支持性政策，信贷增长情况很可能明显好于4月。"5 月我国外贸环境出现了积极变化，这有助于企业有效信贷需求的恢复甚至进一 ...