2025年12月25日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 镍：盘面资金博弈，追高仍需谨慎 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：基本面供需双弱，印尼镍矿消息扰动 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：高位震荡，关注复产进展与情绪降温 | 4 | | 工业硅：关注工厂减产情况 | 6 | | 多晶硅：增加交割厂库，关注情绪面 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 25 日 镍：盘面资金博弈，追高仍需谨慎 不锈钢：基本面供需双弱，印尼镍矿消息扰动 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 128,000 | 4,560 | 14,200 | 10,91 ...

Core Viewpoint - The development of a strong financial nation in China is deeply rooted in a distinctive financial culture that serves as both the spiritual core of the industry and the value foundation for financial services in the context of Chinese modernization [1] Group 1: Financial Culture and Development Strategy - The company emphasizes the integration of "义利相生" (mutual benefit) into its business strategy, aligning its operations with national strategic goals through targeted investments in technology, green finance, and digital finance [2] - The company has successfully launched the first national technology property ABS project, raising 266 million yuan for 32 high-tech enterprises, supporting 88 technology property transactions [2] - In green finance, the company issued an 800 million yuan green ABS, which is expected to reduce carbon emissions by 501.95 tons annually [2] Group 2: Compliance and Trust - The company prioritizes integrity as a foundational principle, embedding "守信如金" (trustworthiness) into governance, customer service, and operations, thereby establishing a trust-centered financial service system [4] - A customer suitability management system has been implemented to ensure objective investment advice and rigorous risk assessment for products, leading to a decrease in customer complaints and an increase in satisfaction [4][5] - The company has developed an intelligent management system that automates permissions and integrates risk monitoring, enhancing operational compliance and risk management [5] Group 3: Inclusive Finance and Smart Services - The company is committed to "金融为民" (finance for the people), enhancing financial accessibility through intelligent services and investor education [6] - The launch of the "智选ETF" service has increased ETF trading penetration from 3.5% to 4.2%, significantly lowering investment barriers for residents [6][7] - The company has also issued a 300 million yuan bond linked to low-carbon transition goals, supporting small and micro enterprises while achieving a record low interest rate for similar issuances in the region [7] Group 4: Risk Management - The company adopts a comprehensive risk management approach, emphasizing respect for market rules and legal compliance, with a focus on building a "全面、全程、全员" (comprehensive, full-process, and all-staff) risk management system [8] - The proprietary "星河" big data risk control platform enables real-time monitoring and management across all business lines, enhancing early identification and intervention in risk events [8] - The integration of risk control mechanisms into business processes through digital tools has improved risk response speed and efficiency [8] Group 5: Cultural Integration and Political Direction - The company integrates party leadership into its cultural and operational framework, ensuring alignment with political direction and public interests [9] - The company promotes a "党建+业务" (party building + business) model, leveraging the role of party members in key projects such as AI applications and digital transformation [9] - The commitment to a distinctive financial culture is seen as essential for high-quality development, with ongoing efforts to support technological independence, green transformation, and inclusive finance [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the role of Huaxia Bank Zhoushan Branch in supporting the green shipbuilding industry in Zhoushan, Zhejiang Province through technology-driven financial services [1][2] - Huaxia Bank Zhoushan Branch has provided a total of 400 million yuan in special credit guarantees to Changhong International Shipbuilding Co., Ltd., addressing the company's significant funding and settlement needs for industrial upgrades [1] - The bank has established a comprehensive service system tailored to the entire shipbuilding process, which includes increasing the guarantee limit dynamically as Changhong International's order scale expands and providing trade financing through international letters of credit [1] Group 2 - The delivery of a 11,500 TEU LNG dual-fuel container ship to Mediterranean Shipping Company on May 28, 2025, marks a significant achievement for Changhong International and represents a new milestone in Zhejiang's green shipbuilding capabilities [2] - The bank's leadership emphasizes the ongoing integration of technology finance and green finance, focusing on the high-end, intelligent, and green development of the marine industry chain to support the high-quality development of Zhejiang's marine economy [2]

"在客户服务中，以适当性管理守护投资者权益。"陈海东表示，公司运用"鑫财富"管理平台建立了有效 的客户适当性管理体系，确保每一笔投资建议客观审慎、每一个产品风险评级都经过严谨评估。通过全 流程诚信监督机制，华鑫证券客户投诉率持续下降，满意度稳步提升，市场信誉成为公司最珍贵的无形 资产。 在新时代金融强国建设的征程中，中国特色金融文化不仅是行业健康发展的精神内核，更是金融服务中 国式现代化的价值基石。华鑫证券总经理陈海东日前在接受中国证券报记者专访时表示，公司深刻把握 中国特色金融文化的内涵，强化党建引领，以"义利相生、守信如金、敬畏风险、金融为民"为核心，将 文化软实力转化为服务实体经济的硬核动力，通过科技赋能、业务创新与党建引领，构建具有华鑫特色 的高质量发展路径。 ● 本报记者徐昭林倩 坚守"义利相生"服务国家战略展现新作为 华鑫证券始终秉持"计利当计天下利"的格局，将服务国家战略作为业务发展的根本导向，在科技金融、 绿色金融、数字金融等领域精准布局，推动金融资源向关键领域汇聚。 据陈海东介绍，在科技金融领域，公司成功落地全国首单技术产权(技术交易)ABS项目，截至2025年9 月末，该项目已发行3期，累 ...

Core Viewpoint - The development of a distinctive financial culture in China is essential for the healthy growth of the financial industry and serves as a foundational value for modernizing financial services in a Chinese context [1]. Group 1: Financial Strategy and Innovation - The company emphasizes the principle of "benefit and righteousness coexist," aligning its business development with national strategies, particularly in technology finance, green finance, and digital finance [1]. - In technology finance, the company successfully launched the first national technology property ABS project, raising 266 million yuan for 32 high-tech enterprises, supporting 88 technology property projects and 21 technology transaction contracts [1]. - The company issued the first knowledge property ABS in Chongqing with a record low interest rate of 1.96%, significantly reducing financing costs for tech enterprises [2]. Group 2: Green Finance Initiatives - The company acted as the plan manager for a green ABS project worth 800 million yuan, covering solar power, waste treatment, and green transportation, which is expected to reduce CO2 emissions by 501.95 tons annually [2]. - The company also issued the first data asset ABS in the country, raising 13.37 million yuan for nine enterprises, marking a breakthrough in the capitalization of data assets [2]. Group 3: Compliance and Trust - The company integrates "integrity as gold" into its governance, customer service, and operations, establishing a trust-centered financial service system [2]. - A customer suitability management system was developed through the "Xin Wealth" platform, ensuring objective investment advice and rigorous risk assessments [2]. Group 4: Operational Management and Risk Control - The company implemented an intelligent management system that binds employee roles with responsibilities, enhancing permission management and risk monitoring [3]. - A comprehensive risk management system is in place, focusing on real-time monitoring and automated management of operations to ensure compliance and risk mitigation [5]. Group 5: Inclusive Finance and Investor Education - The company launched the "Smart ETF" service channel, increasing ETF trading penetration from 3.5% to 4.2% within a year, significantly lowering investment barriers [4]. - The company issued a 300 million yuan bond linked to low-carbon transformation, supporting small and micro enterprises while achieving a record low interest rate for similar issuances in the Northwest region [4]. - The company conducts over 100 public financial literacy events annually to enhance the financial knowledge of the general public [4]. Group 6: Cultural Integration and Future Directions - The company aims to deepen its cultural foundation, enhancing the political and public nature of financial services, and continues to explore ways to inject more financial vitality into the real economy [6].

播撒"绿色革命"火种，注入金融活力。该行投放12.5亿元贷款，为筑牢我国北方重要生态安全屏障注入 金融活力。在信贷资金和政策性金融工具有力组合下，二连浩特蒙能100万千瓦风储项目高效落地。在 高尔奇绿色矿山修复现场，全国农发行系统首笔0.16亿元绿色矿山建设流动资金贷款的投放，实现了企 业"生态账"与"经济账"深度融合。系统内首创的"金融+生态"绿色矿山修复模式，让"沙地变绿洲"成为 现实。 （来源：内蒙古日报） 转自：内蒙古日报 "十四五"以来，农发行锡林郭勒盟分行紧扣地方战略需求，主动融入地方"十四五"发展规划，投放贷款 37亿元，为地方经济社会发展注入"金融活水"，为内蒙古大地描绘出一幅高质量发展的壮美画卷。 筑牢"大国粮仓"基石，护航粮食安全。作为守护国家粮食安全的金融主力军，该行投放粮油贷款11.5亿 元，精准支持政策性粮食收储体系建设，筑牢粮食安全根基。在锡林浩特市国有农牧场和太仆寺旗宝昌 镇，3.4亿元信贷资金助力国有企业耕地流转、地力提升及规模化生产经营活动；700万元农业科技贷款 培育现代种业"芯片"；0.24亿元信贷资金助力布局战略物资储备体系，实现国家战略资源设施基地破 冰，织就立体化战 ...

Core Insights - The brokerage research sector is experiencing a fundamental shift, moving from traditional roles of "report suppliers" to becoming "decision enablers" with industry insights and capital pricing capabilities [1][5] Demand Restructuring - The continuous decline in commission fees is forcing a profound change in the demand side of brokerage research, with total commission fees dropping to 4.474 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 33.98% and a 54.05% drop compared to the same period in 2020 [1] - Despite the decline in commissions, the number of analysts is increasing, reaching 6,185 by December 24, 2025, an increase of nearly 470 analysts or over 8% from the end of 2024, and nearly 30% from the end of 2023 [1][2] Capability Upgrade - Research value is shifting from "assisting trading" to "professional empowerment," leading to a revolution in report production from quantity to depth of understanding [3] - Research teams are developing multi-layered, systematic tracking frameworks to enhance insight sustainability, particularly in rapidly evolving sectors like AI [3] - Digital tools are being integrated into the research value chain, improving efficiency and enabling dynamic, interactive, and customized research services [3] Talent Development - The focus of research resources is increasingly directed towards key areas aligned with national strategies and industrial upgrades, with nearly 3,300 A-share companies covered in individual reports, particularly in hard technology and high-end manufacturing sectors [4] - Coverage of companies on the Beijing Stock Exchange is expanding, with over 150 companies covered and a nearly 26% increase in related research reports [4] Role Evolution - Analysts are evolving from "report suppliers" to "strategic partners," integrating into client decision-making processes and providing tailored solutions [5] - This evolution requires analysts to possess diverse competencies, including market pricing perspectives, deep understanding of client needs, and the ability to navigate macro policy directions [5] - Research outputs are shifting from traditional reports to building "trust assets" through long-term professional relationships, emphasizing the importance of foresight and timely tracking [5][6] Service Model Transformation - The new service model relies heavily on top-tier human resources and time investment, with significant resources needed to maintain relationships with key institutional clients or industry think tanks [6] - The future of the analyst workforce will be closely linked to "capability building," with analysts becoming key nodes connecting industry and capital, as well as knowledge and decision-making [6]

Core Insights - The financial sector in Jinan has significantly strengthened during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with multiple indicators ranking first in the province, driven by the establishment of the country's first Sci-tech Financial Reform Pilot Zone [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - The financial industry's added value is projected to reach 1,097.5 billion yuan in 2024, becoming a key driver of economic growth [2] - By the end of 2024, the balance of both domestic and foreign currency deposits and loans will exceed 30 trillion yuan, marking increases of 42.2% and 52.7% respectively since the end of 2020 [2] - The new direct financing amount in 2024 is expected to be 3,761.33 billion yuan, a 65.7% increase from 2020 [2] - The non-performing loan ratio is expected to drop to 0.61% by the end of 2024, the best in the province [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy Support - The People's Bank of China has lowered the statutory deposit reserve ratio for Jinan's financial institutions nine times, releasing approximately 79 billion yuan in long-term funds [3] - The average interest rates for new corporate loans and personal housing loans in November 2025 are both at a historical low of 3.05%, reducing the burden on market entities [3] - By the end of November 2025, the social financing scale and the balance of domestic and foreign currency loans are expected to reach 53 trillion yuan and 35 trillion yuan, respectively, with increases of 64.1% and 67.0% since the end of 2020 [3] Group 3: Sci-tech Financial Innovations - Since being approved as the first Sci-tech Financial Reform Pilot Zone in November 2021, Jinan has developed a "six specialized and four pricing" service system, promoting comprehensive development in green, inclusive, elderly, and digital finance [4] - The outstanding loans for sci-tech enterprises reached 3,029 billion yuan by the end of Q3, a 175.8% increase since the pilot zone's approval [4] - The average loan interest rate for sci-tech financing is 2.81%, down by 144 basis points [4] Group 4: Inclusive and Digital Finance - The "泉融科创" financial partner brand has provided financing solutions totaling 967.8 billion yuan to nearly 4,000 enterprises and individual businesses [5] - By the end of November, the balance of inclusive small and micro loans reached 3,292.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.3% [5] - The cumulative transaction amount of digital RMB exceeded 48 billion yuan, with over 550 billion yuan facilitated through the "泉融通" financing service platform [5] Group 5: Capital Market Development - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, enterprises in Jinan raised 7,125 billion yuan through stock and bond financing, a 68% increase from the "13th Five-Year Plan" [6] - Bond financing accounted for 6,776 billion yuan, ranking first in Shandong Province, with innovative financing products like sci-tech bonds and green bonds totaling 690 billion yuan [6] - The number of newly listed companies in Jinan reached 15, with nearly 90% being strategic emerging industries, high-tech enterprises, or specialized and innovative firms [6]

2026年即将到来，在监管要求下ESG 强制信息披露元年大幕正在拉开，而A股银行ESG强信披名单也迎来了扩容。 依据证监会指导沪深北交易所《上市公司自律监管指引——可持续发展报告》，ESG强信披阵营锁定上证180、深证100、科创50、创业板指成分股及境内 外同步上市企业。伴随上证180等指数调整，成都银行、沪农商行两家上市银行新晋入列。 | 银行名称 | 2024年碳排放 总量同比增速 | 范围1同比增速 | 范围2同比增速 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 北京银行 | 13.88% | 14.10% | 13.86% | | 南京银行 | 13.23% | -5.25% | 14.49% | | 青岛银行 | 11.92% | 7.86% | 12.05% | | 重庆银行 | 10.96% | 41.05% | 9.23% | | 杭州银行 | 10.02% | 4.04% | 10.34% | | 交通银行 | 9.76% | -2.78% | 10.37% | | 中信银行 | 5.31% | -12.05% | 5.99% | | 招商银行 | 3.10% | 81.9 ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial sector in Jinan has significantly improved in both scale and quality during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, becoming a crucial engine for regional economic growth, with multiple core financial indicators leading the province [2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The financial industry's added value in Jinan has consistently outpaced GDP growth, with a maximum lead of 3.8 percentage points, and is projected to exceed 109.75 billion yuan in 2024 [2]. - By the end of 2024, the balance of both domestic and foreign currency deposits and loans is expected to surpass 3 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 42.2% and 52.7% respectively since the end of 2020, with annual growth rates of 9.2% and 11.2% [2]. - Direct financing in Jinan has seen a rapid increase, with new direct financing amounting to 376.13 billion yuan in 2024, a 65.7% increase from 2020, and an annual growth rate of 13.5% [2]. Group 2: Financial Structure and Quality - The insurance sector's performance has improved, with premium income reaching 81.2 billion yuan in 2024, a 29.3% increase from 2020 [2]. - The non-performing loan ratio is projected to drop to 0.61% by the end of 2024, a decrease of 0.53 percentage points from the end of 2020, indicating strong asset quality [2]. Group 3: Financial Resource Allocation - Jinan has focused on directing financial resources towards key sectors, with significant growth in loans for technology innovation (12.46%), green loans (47.5%), and inclusive small micro loans (12.9%) as of Q3 2025 [4]. - The establishment of nearly 900 financial institutions in Jinan, including local entities like Qilu Bank, has contributed to regional financial stability [4]. Group 4: Capital Market Development - Since the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," Jinan has added 19 new listed companies and 10 new companies on the New Third Board, leading the province in both categories [5]. - The city has developed a robust pipeline for potential public companies, with 520 companies registered for support in accessing capital markets [5]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Jinan's financial sector aims to continue deepening financial reforms and innovations, enhancing financial support in key areas, and leveraging capital market functions to bolster the construction of a modernized provincial capital [6].