Core Viewpoint - The uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's potential departure has prompted the Trump administration to consider multiple candidates for his successor, with a focus on someone who aligns with Trump's economic agenda [1][2]. Group 1: Succession Planning - Trump has indicated he has "two or three top candidates" in mind to replace Powell but has not disclosed their names [1]. - Discussions have occurred regarding the possibility of appointing Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to serve simultaneously as both Treasury Secretary and Federal Reserve Chairman, which would break a long-standing tradition [1]. - Powell's potential continuation in his role has led to speculation about the administration's approach to selecting a successor who would be compliant with Trump's policies [2]. Group 2: Political Dynamics - The current political climate surrounding the Federal Reserve is more sensitive than usual, with Powell's silence on his future causing frustration among Trump's advisors [2][3]. - Trump's ability to reshape the Federal Reserve Board is limited, as current board member Adriana Kugler's term ends in January, providing only one opportunity to fill a vacancy before Powell's term ends [2]. - The nomination of a new chairman requires Senate approval, and the narrow Republican majority means Trump can afford to lose only three votes [3]. Group 3: Powell's Influence - If Powell remains on the Board, he can still influence interest rate decisions through the Federal Open Market Committee, which consists of 19 members [4]. - The potential new chairman's influence on monetary policy is uncertain, especially if the candidate is not from the current Board [4]. - Powell's established loyalty among current Board members may provide him with leverage, regardless of who succeeds him [4].

Group 1: US Economic Policy and Market Reactions - Trump believes there is no need to extend the tariff deadline of July 9, while the Treasury Secretary admits that completing all negotiations may be difficult [4] - The US Senate will begin voting on the "Big and Beautiful" bill on June 30 [4] - Trump suggests that the US should keep interest rates at 1% or 2% [4] - A poll shows President Trump's approval rating has dropped to a new low [4] - Federal Reserve's Kashkari expects two rate cuts starting in September, but the impact of tariffs may delay these cuts [4] - The Bank for International Settlements states that Trump's criticism of the Federal Reserve's rate decisions does not threaten its independence [4] - The Congressional Budget Office reports that the Senate version of Trump's tax cut plan will increase US debt by $3.3 trillion over the next decade [4] Group 2: International Trade Developments - Canada cancels the digital services tax to advance broader trade negotiations with the US [4] - A poll in Japan shows that the support rate for the Shigeru Ishiba cabinet has remained below 30% for four consecutive months [4] - The trade agreement reducing tariffs on UK automotive and aircraft parts has come into effect [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has time to study the impact of tariffs on inflation before making any interest rate decisions [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is considering the effects of tariffs on inflation as part of its decision-making process regarding interest rates [1]

美联储威廉姆斯：美联储将随着时间收集数据，以帮助制定下一次的利率决策。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that political factors should not influence interest rate decisions [1] Group 1 - Powell stated that the Federal Reserve's primary focus should remain on economic indicators rather than political pressures [1] - He reiterated the importance of maintaining the independence of the Federal Reserve in its decision-making process [1] - Powell's comments come amid ongoing discussions about the impact of political events on monetary policy [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.5%, aligning with market expectations [1] - Fed Chairman Powell indicated that the impact of tariffs on inflation will take time to materialize, with expectations of a significant rise in inflation in the coming months [1] - The statement from the meeting showed two notable changes: the uncertainty regarding the economic outlook was described as "having decreased, but still very high," and the phrase regarding increased risks of rising unemployment and inflation was removed [1] Group 2 - Following the meeting, U.S. stock markets and gold prices experienced slight declines, while U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index saw minor increases [1] - The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones indices closed nearly flat, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising by 1.6 basis points to 4.39%, and the dollar index remaining steady at 98.9 [1] - The overall message from the meeting indicated limited new information, with the Fed maintaining that economic downward pressure is manageable and inflation poses a greater risk, awaiting more data for future decisions [1] Group 3 - The next two months are critical for observing trade negotiation outcomes and the potential passage of Trump's "Big Beautiful Plan" in the Senate [2] - The escalation of conflict between Iran and Israel adds uncertainty regarding its impact on the global economy and inflation [2] - The next Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for July 31, where these events may lead to more policy signals [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, indicated a cautious approach to reducing bond purchases due to concerns about market volatility impacting the economy [1] Group 1 - The decision on interest rates will depend on the likelihood of achieving economic outlooks [1] - The overall functionality of the bond market was considered in making decisions [1]

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all up, with Dow futures rising by 0.44%, S&P 500 futures up by 0.56%, and Nasdaq futures increasing by 0.65% [1] - European indices also show positive movement, with Germany's DAX up by 0.51%, UK's FTSE 100 up by 0.48%, France's CAC 40 up by 0.81%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up by 0.57% [2][3] Oil Market - WTI crude oil has decreased by 1.08%, trading at $70.52 per barrel, while Brent crude oil has fallen by 1.06%, priced at $73.44 per barrel [3][4] Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The upcoming week is expected to be significant for the market, with a focus on the escalating tensions in the Middle East and the Federal Reserve's policy statement due on Wednesday [5] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to maintain interest rates, with a 96.9% probability of no change in June and a 77.9% probability of no change in July [6] Currency Market - Goldman Sachs predicts a continued decline of the US dollar, raising the 6-month target for GBP/USD from 1.35 to 1.40 and the 12-month target from 1.39 to 1.44 [7] Corporate News - Honeywell is looking to expand its acquisition activities in Europe due to increased defense spending by European countries [9] - Boeing maintains its forecast for aircraft demand over the next 20 years, expecting a 40% increase in global air travel demand by 2030 [9][10] - Amazon plans to invest approximately $129.7 billion in expanding its data center infrastructure in Australia from 2025 to 2029 [10] Economic Data and Events - Key economic data to be released includes the June New York Fed Manufacturing Index and a 6-month Treasury auction [11]

金十数据6月16日讯，瑞银经济学家在一份报告中说，英国央行可能会在本周四的利率决定中维持利率 不变。经济学家们说，围绕英国经济增长和通胀前景的不确定性可能会导致英国央行6月份将利率维持 在4.25%的水平。不过，英国央行可能会在8月和11月降息，到2025年底将利率降至3.75%。 瑞银：英国央行本周可能维持利率不变 ...

印度央行行长：未来的利率决策将取决于经济数据，保持中性立场意味着利率可能出现任何方向的变 动。 ...