Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector has recently outperformed the market, with various metals experiencing significant price increases, particularly copper, which has reached a three-month high [1][3]. Price Movements - International copper prices have surged, with LME copper futures breaking the $10,000 per ton mark, marking a three-month high [1][4]. - The non-ferrous metal index has risen by 8.74% over the past month, ranking second among 31 Shenwan industry indices [4]. Market Drivers - The rise in copper prices is attributed to traders stockpiling copper in the U.S. ahead of potential tariff increases by the Trump administration [3][5]. - Factors supporting copper prices include a weak dollar, supply constraints, and strong consumption [5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - LME copper inventories have dropped to 90,000 tons, the lowest level since August 2023, contributing to the price surge [4]. - The supply side is constrained due to previous energy shortages and recent tariff-induced inventory tightness [5]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict a potential bottom reversal for the non-ferrous metal sector, driven by a shift in macroeconomic policies emphasizing growth and increased capital expenditure due to a new round of Fed rate cuts [7]. - The sector is expected to benefit from a mismatch in supply and demand, profit recovery, and liquidity easing [7]. Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities are identified in gold, copper, aluminum, and new materials, with a focus on the Fed's interest rate decisions and U.S. tariff uncertainties [10][11]. - The gold sector is particularly favored due to its safe-haven value amid global economic uncertainties and geopolitical conflicts [12]. Emerging Materials - High-growth new materials such as rare metals and advanced materials like graphene and carbon fiber are gaining attention for their strategic value and broad application prospects in high-end industries [12].

Core Viewpoint - The global capital markets are experiencing a rare and unusual phenomenon where both stock markets and commodities are rising simultaneously, despite the decline in oil and gold prices [1][4][7]. Group 1: Stock Market Performance - Major global stock indices have seen significant increases, with the US stock market reaching historical highs after a downturn earlier in the year [1][4]. - The Shanghai Composite Index has stabilized above 3400 points, marking a new high for the year [1]. - European indices such as France's CAC40, Germany's DAX, and the UK's FTSE 100 have also shown positive performance [1]. Group 2: Commodity Market Trends - Commodities like copper, aluminum, and lead have experienced price increases, with copper prices surpassing $5 and aluminum reaching a three-month high [6][25]. - In contrast, oil and gold prices have declined, with Brent crude falling from $79 to $66 and gold dropping from 3452 to 3289 [8][9]. Group 3: Underlying Factors - The rise in global stock markets is closely linked to the depreciation of the US dollar, which has fallen from 101 to 97 since May [14][13]. - The US government's intention to weaken the dollar is aimed at reducing debt pressure and encouraging capital repatriation [16][15]. - The expectation of increased US debt and monetary easing by the Federal Reserve is driving market sentiment [22][21]. Group 4: Capital Flow Dynamics - The disparity in commodity price movements is influenced by US purchasing behavior, with the US prioritizing the accumulation of certain commodities while neglecting others like oil and gold [28][27]. - The capital flow towards commodities that the US is willing to stockpile indicates a strategic approach to manage future costs amid a weaker dollar [24][25]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The upcoming month of July is critical, with potential further interest rate cuts and significant legislative actions expected [35][34]. - The overall market sentiment is characterized by uncertainty, particularly regarding the credibility of the dollar and US debt [39][40]. - Despite the current stock market rally, there are concerns that it may be a prelude to a downturn, necessitating caution and preparation for potential risks [41][42].

Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.70%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index rose by 0.34% and 0.47% respectively, with total trading volume reaching 15,411 billion [1] ETF Performance - The leading ETFs included the Asia-Pacific Select ETF (159687), Industrial Metals ETF (560860), and various communication-related ETFs, reflecting a strong interest in these sectors [2] - The Hong Kong Securities ETF (513090) topped the trading volume with 20.656 billion, followed by the Silver Hua ETF (511880) and the Shanghai Stock Company Bond ETF (511070), both exceeding 10 billion [4] Sector Analysis - The metals sector is experiencing a slight tightening in supply and demand, with domestic inventories decreasing slightly and LME metal inventories remaining low, suggesting a potential for price increases in the short term [2] - The banking sector is seeing increased institutional investment, with a notable rise in passive fund allocations and a stable increase in active fund holdings, indicating a positive outlook for bank stocks [3] Upcoming ETF Products - Two new ETFs will begin fundraising next week, including the Jiashi Securities ETF (562870) and the Huaxia Sci-Tech Value ETF (589550), while the Bosera Large Cap Growth ETF (159203) and the Fuguo Hang Seng Index ETF (159365) will be listed [6]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to continue a trend of oscillation and upward movement in the second half of 2025, driven by a weak dollar, supportive capital market policies, and improved liquidity conditions [2][3][5]. Group 1: Market Outlook - Many brokerages predict that the A-share market will maintain a steady upward trend in the second half of 2025, with historical lows and this year's stage bottom likely already established [2][3]. - The A-share market's oscillation center is expected to gradually rise, supported by a weak dollar trend and overall improvement in the liquidity environment [5][7]. Group 2: Factors Driving the Market - The weak dollar trend is anticipated to drive global capital outflows from the U.S. market, benefiting emerging markets like A-shares [3][5]. - Recent capital market policies aimed at stabilizing and activating the market are expected to enhance long-term investment and market vitality [5][7]. Group 3: Core Asset Focus - The CSI A500 Index ETF (563880) is highlighted as a key asset for investment, showcasing strong profitability, reasonable valuation, and potential for incremental capital inflow [2][9][12]. - The CSI A500 Index is projected to have a net profit growth rate of around 10% from 2025 to 2027, indicating strong operational resilience compared to the broader market [8][12]. Group 4: Valuation and Performance - As of June 15, the CSI A500 Index ETF has a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.77, which is considered reasonable compared to the CSI 2000 Index's ratio of 136.44 [9][12]. - The overall performance of the A-share market has shown significant growth, with the CSI A500 Index expected to outperform smaller stocks and thematic stocks in terms of valuation and profitability [9][12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry - wide investment rating. However, for each metal, it provides a mid - to long - term outlook, including "oscillation", "oscillation - weakening", etc., which can be roughly understood as a short - to medium - term investment view. For example, copper, aluminum, lead, stainless steel, and tin are expected to oscillate; zinc and nickel are expected to oscillate weakly; and the outlook for alumina and aluminum alloy is more specific with trading strategies [5][8][12]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The colored metals market is influenced by a combination of a weak US dollar, low LME inventories, and weakening demand, leading to continued oscillation. In the short - to medium - term, focus on structural opportunities and cautiously consider short - term long opportunities for copper, aluminum, and tin. In the long - term, there is uncertainty in the demand outlook for base metals, and it is advisable to look for opportunities to short on rallies for some metals with oversupply or expected oversupply [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper - **Current Situation**: The US May labor market data was better than expected, with non - farm payrolls increasing by 139,000. Global copper mining giant Antofagasta initiated mid - year negotiations with Chinese and Japanese smelters. In May, SMM China's electrolytic copper production increased by 1.26 million tons month - on - month and 12.86% year - on - year. As of June 9, copper inventory in mainstream regions in China rose to 149,500 tons. The US increased the tariff on imported steel and aluminum and their derivatives from 25% to 50% [5]. - **Main Logic**: The US manufacturing activity contracted for the third consecutive month in May, and overseas economies are at risk of further weakening. On the supply side, copper concentrate processing fees have continued to decline, and raw material supply is still tight. Some smelters at home and abroad have announced maintenance and production cuts. On the demand side, with the arrival of the consumption off - season, downstream restocking willingness has weakened, and domestic social inventories have started to rise, limiting the upward space for copper prices [5]. - **Outlook**: Copper supply constraints still exist, and inventories are at a low level, supporting the bottom of copper prices. It is expected that copper will show high - level oscillation in the short term [5]. 3.2 Alumina - **Current Situation**: On June 10, the northern spot comprehensive price of alumina dropped by 15 yuan to 3,280 yuan, and the national weighted index dropped by 41.4 yuan to 3,260.8 yuan. An electrolytic aluminum plant in the northwest region tendered to purchase 10,000 tons of alumina, and a plant in Guangxi purchased 2,000 tons. Indonesia's Bintan Alumina Company's Phase III project entered the trial production stage, and a mining license in Guinea was revoked [5]. - **Main Logic**: In the short - to medium - term, there is no shortage of ore. With the repair of previous spot - futures profits, an increase in operating capacity and an inventory inflection point are expected. Long - term news is frequent, but the impact is expected to be limited if not fermented on the basis of red mud. The market has relatively fully priced in the news of the revoked mining license in Guinea and is becoming desensitized to it [5][6]. - **Outlook**: The logic of near - month production resumption is more certain than that of far - month ore supply. Given the current back structure, consider rolling into 7 - 9/7 - 1 reverse spreads. Aggressive investors can short contract 07 on rallies [6]. 3.3 Aluminum - **Current Situation**: On June 10, the average price of SMM Shanghai aluminum ingot spot was 20,160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. As of June 9, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in mainstream consumption areas in China was 477,000 tons, a decrease of 42,000 tons, and the aluminum rod inventory was 129,500 tons, an increase of 1,800 tons. Some electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Sichuan are resuming production [7]. - **Main Logic**: Trump's increase in steel and aluminum tariffs has intensified global trade tensions. On the supply side, the spot price of upstream alumina has declined, and the profit of electrolytic aluminum enterprises has remained high. Overseas, the import of electrolytic aluminum into China is at a loss, and the supply growth space is limited. On the demand side, downstream demand has strengthened. In the long - term, domestic supply pressure is limited, and demand is expected to be cautiously optimistic, with the aluminum market in a tight - balance state [8]. - **Outlook**: Downstream demand has slightly increased, and it is expected that inventories will decline in the future. It is recommended to go long on dips, and aluminum prices are expected to oscillate [8]. 3.4 Aluminum Alloy - **Current Situation**: On June 10, the price of Baotai ADC12 remained unchanged at 19,400 yuan/ton. The SMM AOO average price was 20,160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan. The difference between Baotai ADC12 and AOO was - 760 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan [8]. - **Main Logic**: In the short - to medium - term, the pressure of the automotive off - season is high, ADC12 is weak, and the electrolytic aluminum inventory is low with firm prices. ADC12 - AOO may still weaken. In the long - term, the demand for ADC12 is expected to seasonally recover in the third quarter, and there is an expectation of an increase in ADC12 and ADC12 - AOO [9][11]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, ADC12 oscillates weakly. In the long term, ADC12 and ADC12 - AOO are expected to rise [11]. 3.5 Zinc - **Current Situation**: On June 10, the spot premium of Shanghai 0 zinc to the main contract was 295 yuan/ton, and that of Guangdong 0 zinc was 285 yuan/ton. As of June 10, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 81,700 tons, an increase of 2,400 tons from last Thursday. Kipushi Mine is expected to produce 50,000 - 70,000 tons of zinc concentrate [10][11]. - **Main Logic**: The US tariff policy is volatile, and macro - uncertainty remains. On the supply side, the short - term supply of zinc ore has become looser, domestic zinc ore processing fees have increased, and smelters have started to make profits and increase production willingness. On the demand side, domestic consumption has entered the traditional off - season, and terminal new orders are limited. In the long - term, zinc supply is expected to increase, while demand growth is small, and supply will remain in oversupply [12]. - **Outlook**: After annual maintenance, zinc ingot production has increased again, downstream demand has gradually weakened, and inventories have accumulated. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term and continue to decline in the long term [12]. 3.6 Lead - **Current Situation**: On June 10, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,125 yuan/ton, and the difference between primary and recycled lead was 25 yuan/ton. The average price of SMM1 lead ingot was 16,625 yuan, an increase of 100 yuan. The social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets decreased by 500 tons to 53,400 tons, and the latest Shanghai lead warehouse receipts increased by 399 tons to 42,198 tons [12][13]. - **Main Logic**: On the spot side, the spot discount was stable, and the difference between primary and recycled lead increased slightly. On the supply side, the price of waste batteries was stable, the lead price rose, the loss of recycled lead smelting narrowed, and some enterprises reduced production due to environmental inspections. On the demand side, affected by the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the operating rate of lead - acid battery manufacturers decreased last week, but the operating rate was higher than the same period in previous years due to the "trade - in" activities in the automotive and electric bicycle markets [13]. - **Outlook**: After the Geneva negotiations, Sino - US tariffs have decreased significantly. In terms of supply and demand, the demand off - season has arrived, and battery dealers' finished product inventories are high, but the electric bicycle market's "trade - in" activities may keep the battery factory operating rate better than in previous years. The supply of lead ingots may remain stable this week. The price of waste batteries is likely to rise, and the cost of recycled lead provides high - level support. Lead prices are expected to oscillate [14][15]. 3.7 Nickel - **Current Situation**: On June 10, the LME nickel inventory was 198,126 tons, a decrease of 966 tons from the previous trading day, and the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 21,041 tons, a decrease of 151 tons. Indonesia and France agreed to strengthen cooperation in key minerals, and BHP renewed an exploration agreement in Norway. Indonesia plans to reduce fuel imports from Singapore and has proposed a strategy to stabilize mineral and coal prices. The production of hydroxide precipitates in Indonesia's Morowali Industrial Park has declined [15][16][17]. - **Main Logic**: Market sentiment still dominates the market, and the static valuation of the market is stable. The industrial fundamentals are showing marginal weakness. The ore end is relatively strong, but the rainy season may restrict raw materials. The production of intermediate products has recovered, the price of nickel salts has slightly declined, the profit of salt factories has slightly improved, and the production of nickel sulfate from nickel beans is still at a loss. The supply of electrolytic nickel is in serious excess, and inventories have accumulated significantly [18]. - **Outlook**: The US reciprocal tariffs have led to a systematic price decline. In the long term, short on rallies. In the short term, nickel prices will oscillate widely [18]. 3.8 Stainless Steel - **Current Situation**: The latest stainless steel futures warehouse receipt inventory was 120,039 tons, a decrease of 1,624 tons from the previous trading day. On June 10, the spot premium of Foshan Hongwang 304 to the stainless steel main contract was 540 yuan/ton. In May, the national nickel pig iron production increased, and it is expected to decrease in June. The production of high - carbon ferrochrome increased in May. The national stainless steel production decreased slightly in May [20][21]. - **Main Logic**: The price of nickel iron has declined slightly, and the price of ferrochrome has weakened marginally. The 300 - series stainless steel is still in an inverted situation, putting pressure on steel mills. In May, stainless steel production decreased slightly, and it is expected to further decrease in June. Demand is gradually moving out of the peak season, and there is a risk of weakening apparent demand. The social inventory has decreased, and the warehouse receipt reduction is significant, alleviating the structural oversupply pressure [22]. - **Outlook**: The cost side still supports steel prices, but the market's acceptance of prices is limited. Demand moving out of the peak season also puts pressure on steel prices. Future focus should be on inventory changes and cost - side changes. Stainless steel is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [22]. 3.9 Tin - **Current Situation**: On June 10, the LME tin warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 25 tons to 2,415 tons, and the Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 38 tons to 6,866 tons. The Shanghai tin open interest increased by 107 lots to 50,717 lots. The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network 1 tin ingot was 264,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 900 yuan/ton [22][23]. - **Main Logic**: The previous sharp decline in tin prices may be due to short - sellers entering the market in advance under long - term pessimistic expectations, and the rumor of Wa State's resumption of production was just a trigger. In the short term, after the over - decline and the news of a slow resumption of production, the price rebounded. With Wa State's tin production not yet resumed, the domestic ore supply is tight, and the supply - demand fundamentals of tin are resilient. However, the easing of supply - side disturbances and the less - optimistic long - term demand outlook limit the upward elasticity of tin prices [23]. - **Outlook**: News from Wa State has increased tin price volatility. The tight ore supply provides support for tin prices. Whether the tight ore supply can further accelerate the transmission to the ingot end will determine the height of tin prices in June. Tin prices are expected to oscillate [23].

Market Overview - The A-share market continued to rebound with nearly 4,000 stocks in the green, as the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.43%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.91%, and the ChiNext Index gained 1.22% by midday [1] Reasons for Market Movement - Positive news in the tech sector, particularly with Nvidia's stock rising nearly 3% and its market value surpassing $1 trillion, reflecting a 24% increase over the past month and over 45% since April's low [2][3] - Expectations of a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut have increased, with reports suggesting that the People's Bank of China may take further measures to ensure liquidity remains adequate [2] - Major insurance companies are actively supporting emerging industries and the capital market, with China Pacific Insurance launching two funds totaling 50 billion yuan [2] Sector Highlights Computing Power Industry Chain - The computing power industry chain saw a collective rebound, led by CPO and copper connection sectors, with stocks like Huamai Technology and Derun Electronics hitting the daily limit or rising over 10% [2][3] - Nvidia's strong performance has boosted market confidence in the CPO market, which is expected to grow rapidly, potentially reaching a market size of $2.6 billion by 2033 [3] Nuclear Power Sector - The nuclear power and controllable nuclear fusion sectors showed strength, with stocks like Baili Electric and Rongfa Nuclear Power experiencing significant gains [4] - A long-term nuclear power purchase agreement between Meta and Constellation Energy highlights the growing demand for nuclear energy, with Goldman Sachs predicting a structural shortage in the global uranium market by 2040 [4] Football Concept Stocks - Football-related stocks remained active, with companies like Gongchuang Turf and Jinling Sports seeing substantial gains [5] - The popularity of the "Super League" has drawn significant attention, with average attendance surpassing that of the Chinese Jia League [5] Institutional Insights - Dongwu Securities suggests that June may mark the beginning of a new "East Rising, West Falling" trading cycle, driven by a weaker dollar and favorable conditions for growth stocks [7] - Everbright Securities anticipates that external risks may have peaked, with domestic policies remaining supportive, leading to a stable index performance in June [8] - Oriental Securities believes that the market is transitioning from a phase of range-bound trading to a gradual upward trend, supported by resilient economic fundamentals [9]

Group 1 - The China A500 ETF (560510) has seen a price increase of 0.43% as of June 4, 2025, with a trading volume of 17.81 million yuan, while the underlying index, the China A500 Index (000510), rose by 0.50% [1] - Notable stock performances include Lepu Medical (300003) up by 13.95%, Perfect World (002624) up by 6.04%, and Huadian Technology (002463) up by 5.38% [1] - There was a net inflow of 8.4 million yuan into the China A500 ETF on June 3, indicating renewed investor interest [1] Group 2 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May was reported at 49.5%, a month-on-month increase of 0.5 percentage points, while the non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.3%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points [2] - Dongwu Securities highlighted that the "East Rising, West Falling" trade is influenced by the weakening dollar, which is expected to benefit non-US assets, including the Chinese market [2] - The dollar index has fallen below 100 points since mid-May, with expectations of further decline in June, which could trigger a new round of "East Rising, West Falling" trading in A-shares [2] Group 3 - Huazhong Strategy suggests that the market may shift focus towards upcoming significant meetings and potential policy directions, with expectations of tariff risk mitigation and export recovery [3] - The China A500 ETF closely tracks the China A500 Index, which includes 500 large-cap, liquid stocks from various industries, reflecting the overall performance of representative listed companies [3] - The China A500 ETF and its associated funds provide differentiated investment tools for investors looking to capitalize on the "big and beautiful" A-share market [3]

Core Viewpoint - The weakening of the US dollar is primarily a result of market trading and uncertainty, leading investors to reduce their overweight positions in US assets [1][3] Group 1: Dollar Weakness and Market Reactions - The dollar index has fallen below 100, with Asian currencies appreciating significantly [1] - The so-called "Mar-a-Lago Agreement" has been cited as a catalyst for the weak dollar, suggesting that the dollar has been overvalued due to its status as the world's primary reserve currency [1][3] - UBS's chief economist, Arend Kapteyn, emphasizes that the dollar's weakness is not a deliberate policy but a byproduct of market uncertainty [3] Group 2: US Debt Concerns - Concerns regarding US debt remain, with 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields nearing 4.5% and 5% respectively [4] - The rise in Treasury yields is attributed to high government financing needs and market worries about increasing debt supply [4][5] - Despite rising yields, foreign investors have not reduced their holdings, while local investors are decreasing their positions [5] Group 3: Tax Policy and Fiscal Impact - The new tax policy proposed by Trump is not expected to significantly increase the fiscal deficit, as it is characterized as a "illusionary expansion" rather than a true tax cut [8] - The tax plan aims to extend personal tax cuts and increase standard deductions, while also including significant spending cuts [8] - The plan is projected to reduce taxes by approximately $4 trillion over the next decade, but it also includes substantial cuts to programs like Medicaid [8] Group 4: Trade Negotiation Challenges - Ongoing trade negotiations between the US and EU are critical, with both sides facing significant misalignment in their demands [9] - The US aims to increase tariff revenues, which reached a record high in April, while the EU seeks to lower tariffs to zero [9][10] - The potential for increased tariffs could lead to higher inflation, with estimates suggesting core PCE inflation could rise to 3.5% under current tariff structures [10]

作为券商月度策略的精华，券商每月金股受到市场关注。 回望5月，最牛金股当月涨幅高达52%。刚刚出炉的6月金股中，电子、医药生物、汽车、食品饮料等板块的金 股数量居前，港股标的关注度显著抬升。 展望6月，不少券商认为，当前弱美元趋势下，人民币资产有望受益，A股中长期有望震荡上行。 医药板块金股5月收益率领先 从5月金股表现来看，由长城证券推荐的药师帮（9885.HK）以52%的月涨幅排名第一；由华西证券推荐的曼 卡龙（300945.SZ）、由天风证券推荐的潮宏基（002345.SZ）紧随其后，分居第二、第三，月涨幅均超45%。 展望6月行情，不少券商认为，当前弱美元趋势下，人民币资产有望受益，A股中长期有望震荡上行。 中国银河证券策略首席蔡芳媛认为，6月A股市场将大概率震荡上行，建议把握波动中的确定性，关注消费、 科技、红利三条主线。随着经济复苏的持续叠加国内政策保持积极态势，并且监管层多次发声表达对A股市场 的呵护，人民币资产作为美国信用的一种对冲可能受益，多因素共振将持续助力市场风险偏好提升。 东吴证券认为，新一轮"东升西落"交易可能很快来临。美元周期是"东升西落"交易的关键，从历史经验看，在 全球流动性宽 ...

Group 1 - A-shares experienced a decline on May 27, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.18% to 3340.69 points, led by declines in the robotics and computing power sectors, while new consumption stocks surged [1] - The total net asset value of public funds in China surpassed 33 trillion yuan for the first time, reaching 33.12 trillion yuan by the end of April, an increase of 898.04 billion yuan from the end of March [1] - Analysts from Dongwu Securities attribute the strength of the Chinese market to a weakening US dollar, predicting that a further decline in the dollar index below 97.9 in mid to late June will benefit non-US markets and favor Chinese assets, particularly in the technology growth sector [1] Group 2 - The A500 ETF (512050) has seen a net inflow of 371 million yuan over three consecutive days, indicating strong investor interest despite market fluctuations [2] - The A500 ETF tracks the CSI A500 Index and employs a dual strategy of balanced industry allocation and leading stock selection, aligning with changes in China's economic structure [2] - The management fee for the A500 ETF is currently 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, making it one of the lowest in its category [2]