Group 1: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Outlook - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell emphasized that there is no rush to cut interest rates, citing high tariffs as a significant source of uncertainty that requires careful observation [1][2] - Powell indicated that future trade agreements could influence the Fed's consideration of rate cuts, reflecting the impact of trade policies on economic forecasts [1][3] - Most Federal Reserve officials support a rate cut this year, but they are waiting to observe inflation trends in the coming months [3][6] Group 2: Impact of Tariffs on Inflation - Powell stated that the current high tariffs lack modern precedent, making it challenging for the Fed to assess their potential impact on inflation [2][4] - He noted that tariffs are expected to contribute to inflation in the coming months, with consumers likely bearing some of the costs [3][5] - The Fed is still determining how much of the tariff burden will be passed on to consumers and how it will manifest in measured inflation [5][6] Group 3: Fiscal Policy and Debt Concerns - Powell reiterated that the Fed does not consider the federal government's debt in its monetary policy decisions, although he acknowledged that fiscal policy can exacerbate inflationary pressures [8] - He expressed concerns about the sustainability of the U.S. fiscal path, highlighting that debt growth is outpacing economic growth [8] - Powell briefly addressed student loan debt, suggesting it is an issue Congress needs to consider due to its negative impact on borrowers' economic participation [9] Group 4: Federal Reserve Headquarters Renovation - Recent reports indicated that the renovation of the Federal Reserve's headquarters could cost approximately $2.5 billion, leading to public scrutiny [10] - Powell defended the renovation plans, stating that the building requires updates for safety and functionality, and clarified that sensationalized media reports about luxury features are inaccurate [10]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 有色金属 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 市场表现 -29% -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 22% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 1.《盛达资源：金银上行，扩产在即》， 2025.4.30 2.《锡业股份：原料自给上行，行业 持续景气》，2025.4.30 3.《有色金属周报：黄金剧震，持续 看好》，2025.4.27 4.《天山铝业：利润高企，成长性明 显》，2025.4.20 5.《有色金属周报：特朗普连续喊话 美 联 储 ， 关 注 贵 金 属 表 现 》 ， 2025.4.20 有色金属周报：贸易进展可能有 限，黄金依旧长期看好 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 有色金属 2025 年 05 月 11 日 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 贵金 ...

高关税和美国经济、外交利益存在矛盾。 在经济方面，高关税难以弥补减税带来的财政缺口，财政赤 字仍可能大幅扩张。短期内，进口需求难以迅速减少，关税成本大概率会被转嫁给消费者，推高国内价 格水平。中长期来看，即使企业回流，美国制造业并不具备竞争优势，反而可能引发成本推动型通胀上 升，进而对联储政策空间形成制约。在外交方面，高关税可能引发美国与他国、特别是盟国间的利益冲 突。一旦引发国与国之间竞相加征关税，则可能导致全球需求萎缩。 要点 特朗普的竞选策略延续了其第一任期的风格，尤以贸易保护和大规模减税引人关注。这一"增关税、减 税收"的组合，意在财政上取得平衡，更重要的是通过对外筑起贸易壁垒、对内减税放松，来吸引制造 业回流，推动美国再工业化。然而，特朗普的政策主张可能存在多个矛盾。 "再工业化"与市场规律间存在矛盾。 战后，美国逐渐从"工业强国"转向"金融强国"，从"生产者"转型为 "财务投资者"。这一转变主要由市场力量推动，本质上是美国对外投资的收益率显著高于本土投资。当 前，美国生产成本高企，美国制造业回流并不符合资本利益，换句话说，单凭市场力量实现难度较大。 而如果美国逆市场力量推动制造业回流，可能需要投入 ...