[Table_Reportdate] 2026年03月02日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 陈芯楠 S0630525090001 cxn@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 李嘉豪 S0630525100001 重点推荐 lijiah@longone.com.cn [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20260302 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [table_summary] ➢ 1.把握商品周期与科技赋能主线，关注油价变量——资产配置周报（2026/02/23- 2026/02/27） ➢ 2.2025年机床行业稳健增长，高端数控机床领域加速推进——机械设备行业简评 ➢ 1.霍尔木兹海峡禁止任何船只通行 ➢ 2.美国对伊朗持续进行军事打击 ➢ 3.美国1月PPI同比增长2.9%，超出预期 ➢ 4.四部门部署帮扶小额信贷新政 ➢ 5.商务部：将坚持"政策＋活动"双轮驱动，深入实施提 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2026年03月01日 策 略 研 究 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 王鸿行 S0630522050001 whxing@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 陈伟业 S0630526020001 cwy@longone.com.cn [把握商品周期与科技赋能主线，关注油 Table_NewTitle] 价变量 ——资产配置周报（2026/02/23-2026/02/27） [table_main] 投资要点 总 量 研 究 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [Table_Report] ➢ 全球大类资产回顾。2月27日当周，全球股市涨跌不一，日股、A股领涨；主要商品期货中 黄金、原油、铜、铝小幅收涨；美元指数小幅下跌，人 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2026年03月01日 策 略 研 究 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 王鸿行 S0630522050001 whxing@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 陈伟业 S0630526020001 cwy@longone.com.cn [把握商品周期与科技赋能主线，关注油 Table_NewTitle] 价变量 ——资产配置周报（2026/02/23-2026/02/27） [Table_Report] ➢ 全球大类资产回顾。2月27日当周，全球股市涨跌不一，日股、A股领涨；主要商品期货中 黄金、原油、铜、铝小幅收涨；美元指数小幅下跌，人民币、欧元小幅升值，日元贬值。 1）权益方面：日经225>深证成指>英国富时100>上证指数>科创50>沪深300指数>创业板 指>恒生指数>法国CAC40 ...

Core Thesis - JBS N.V. is viewed positively due to its strong market position and growth potential in the protein sector, with shares trading at $16.18 and a trailing P/E of 15.53 and forward P/E of 3.87 [1][2] Company Overview - JBS S.A. operates as a global leader in protein production, with extensive operations across beef, pork, poultry, and diversified products, including plant-based proteins, leather, and biodiesel [3] - The company has over 250 facilities and operates in more than 180 countries, providing significant bargaining power and distribution advantages [3] Market Dynamics - There is strong secular demand for protein driven by population growth and rising incomes in emerging markets, which supports long-term growth [4] - Geographic expansion, particularly in Europe through acquisitions, is expected to enhance market share [4] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, JBS reported net sales of approximately $22.6 billion, reflecting a ~13% increase, although profit and EBITDA declined due to tight U.S. beef supplies and rising input costs [5] - The company is pursuing around $2 billion in annual capital expenditures for facility modernization and higher-margin segments, supported by a dual NYSE listing for cheaper capital [5] Competitive Landscape - JBS's competitive strength is derived from its scale, integration, and diversification, but it faces moderate competition from rivals like Tyson Foods, Marfrig, and BRF, as well as changing consumer preferences towards alternative proteins [5] - The company’s leverage is approximately 2.4x, indicating a need for careful financial discipline amidst cyclical risks [5] Risks and Opportunities - Key risks include commodity cycles, disease outbreaks, ESG/legal pressures, and trade disruptions, which could significantly impact profitability [6] - Upside potential exists through European acquisitions, operational improvements, and growth in prepared foods or plant-based proteins, while downside risks are linked to cyclicality and regulatory pressures [6] - JBS's valuation appears attractive with a forward P/E of ~9.1 and a strong return on equity of ~23.7%, although earnings volatility necessitates caution [6]

春节假期以来，国际原油价格延续节前强势，其中布伦特原油期货在春节期间的涨幅创下13年来同期新 高。业内人士表示，当前国际原油价格涨势已偏离供应过剩的基本面，地缘局势溢价成为核心支撑。中 长期来看，在市场看多预期与地缘局势溢价双重逻辑支撑下，国际原油价格有望进入75美元/桶至80美 元/桶区间。 一德期货能源化工分析师许鹏艳也持类似观点。她认为，地缘局势因素依旧是支撑后市国际原油市场的 主要因素。且从原油估值模型看，当前原油市场地缘局势溢价约为1美元。如果地缘局势进一步升级， 溢价可能上涨至4美元至5美元，但若局势缓和，油价可能会快速回落至此前的震荡区间。 历年春节假期后一个月 油价上涨潜力更大 根据隆众资讯对2013年至2025年春节假期后一个月布伦特原油期货价格走势的统计发现，在这13个统计 年份中，共出现6次上涨、7次下跌。虽然从次数上看，下跌年份略多于上涨年份，但从幅度上看，上涨 的幅度显著强于下跌。其中，在上涨年份中，平均涨幅约为10.96%，2022年更是涨超32%，2016年也涨 超16%；在下跌年份中，平均跌幅仅约为4.56%，最大跌幅为2015年的8.36%，整体跌幅远小于上涨年份 的平均涨幅 ...

NYMEX原油期货主力合约、ICE布伦特原油期货主力合约分别报65.84美元/桶、70.78美元/桶，两者较2 月16日收盘价分别上涨4.96%、4.97%。 隆众资讯分析师李彦表示，春节期间，布伦特原油期货价格涨幅创下13年来同期新高，核心因素围绕美 伊局势展开，虽然双方谈判仍在继续，但市场认为双方产生军事冲突的概率依然偏高，油市面临潜在供 应风险上升。 从基本面来看，李彦表示，随着"欧佩克+"在2025年开始增产，全球原油市场供需关系已经发生转变， 逐渐从紧平衡转向供应过剩，过剩量每日约150万桶至200万桶。 尽管供需格局呈现过剩态势，但当前国际原油价格的涨势已明显偏离这一基本面，转而由地缘局势主 导。"目前，国际原油价格涨势已脱离基本面影响，市场对美伊局势的关注度显著提升，地缘局势成为 核心影响因素。"李彦表示。 ● 本报记者 马爽 春节假期以来，国际原油价格延续节前强势，其中布伦特原油期货在春节期间的涨幅创下13年来同期新 高。业内人士表示，当前国际原油价格涨势已偏离供应过剩的基本面，地缘局势溢价成为核心支撑。中 长期来看，在市场看多预期与地缘局势溢价双重逻辑支撑下，国际原油价格有望进入75美元/桶 ...

Group 1: Commodity Price Trends - Since August 2023, precious metals and industrial metals have shown significant price increases, with gold rising by 45.6% and silver by 103% since August 2025, while COMEX copper has increased by 15% since September 2023, raising expectations for oil price increases[2] - Historical analysis of commodity cycles from 1992-2021 indicates a valid transmission logic from precious metals to industrial metals and then to oil, driven by monetary easing and economic recovery[2] - The current commodity cycle differs from previous ones, with precious metal price increases occurring ahead of monetary easing, driven by de-dollarization expectations and geopolitical risks[2] Group 2: Key Support Factors for Oil Prices - Two main support factors for oil prices are identified: the desire of oil-producing countries to raise prices and geopolitical premiums due to global political and economic challenges[2] - The U.S. is seen as a key player in oil price dynamics, with potential motivations to raise prices post-midterm elections, as inflation concerns may ease[2] - OPEC countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, are also inclined to raise oil prices to ensure fiscal stability, especially under increasing financial pressures[2] Group 3: Investment Insights - Brent crude oil prices are projected to rise to the range of $75-80 per barrel within the year, driven by the dual logic of rising expectations and geopolitical premiums[3] - Upstream resource sectors are expected to directly benefit from rising oil prices, enhancing profitability and dividend stability, making high-dividend stocks more attractive in a declining interest rate environment[3] - Oil price increases are likely to boost capital expenditures in oil companies, creating lagging benefits for oil service and high-end equipment sectors[3]

1. Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The factors affecting commodity prices are complex, with the core factors being financial and commodity attributes. The financial attributes include macro - liquidity, risk preference, and the role of the US dollar as a pricing "anchor". The commodity attributes involve supply - demand fundamentals, including both normal and abnormal influencing factors [2][3][7]. - Commodity prices do not rise and fall synchronously but follow a certain rotation order. Based on financial attributes, the mean - reversion of commodity ratios drives price rotation. Based on commodity attributes, economic cycle rotation and inventory cycles lead to the rotation of "precious metals - industrial metals - energy - agricultural products" [11][15][19]. - The current commodity pricing is influenced by the re - construction of the monetary "anchor", the abnormal supply - demand factors in commodity attributes, such as technological revolutions, industrial transformation, supply - chain re - construction under geopolitical influence, and strategic reserves. These factors have a more significant impact on prices compared to traditional supply - demand drivers [3]. - In the past two years, some commodities have shown strong performance, mainly led by precious metals and non - ferrous metals. The current commodity rally is mainly based on macro - narrative logic changes rather than traditional demand - driven cycles. If the economic cycle recovers more clearly, the traditional demand and cycle rotation will contribute more to commodity price increases [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Commodity Pricing Factors and Rotation Analysis Framework 3.1.1 Commodity Pricing Factors - Financial attributes: Conventional factors include macro - liquidity (e.g., monetary policy, interest rates, inflation expectations) and risk preference. At a higher level, the US dollar serves as the pricing "anchor" for commodities, and its "de - anchoring" can lead to significant price re - evaluation [2][7]. - Commodity attributes: Core drivers are based on supply and demand. Normal factors include supply - demand gaps, production costs, and inventory levels. Abnormal factors on the demand side include technological revolutions, industrial transformation, and national strategic reserves; on the supply side, they include policy regulation, wars, pandemics, export controls, and weather [3][8]. 3.1.2 Commodity Rotation Framework - Based on financial attributes, the mean - reversion of commodity ratios (price - ratio effect) promotes price diffusion and rotation. For example, when the price ratio of copper to gold or oil exceeds the historical average, it may trigger a mean - reversion [15]. - Based on commodity attributes, economic cycle rotation and inventory cycles lead to the rotation of "precious metals - industrial metals - energy - agricultural products". In the recession period, precious metals are favored for their hedging value; in the recovery period, industrial metals take the lead; in the over - heating period, energy performs strongly; and in the stagflation period, agricultural products make up for the late - stage increase [15][19]. 3.2 Two Rounds of Typical Commodity Cycle Trends Review - The first round was in the 1970s, during the depression of the fourth Kondratieff cycle. The breakdown of the Bretton Woods system and two oil crises led to a tripling of the CRB index. Gold led the rally, followed by oil, and then agricultural products [28][34]. - The second round was in the early 21st century, driven by China's rise. The CRB index also tripled. LME copper led the early stage, oil had a more significant increase in the later stage, and agricultural products had a late - stage rally [28][37]. - After the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, commodities followed the economic cycle rotation. Precious metals led in early 2009, industrial metals rebounded in the second and third quarters of 2009, oil prices climbed as the economy recovered, and after 2011, oil and agricultural products remained stable while precious metals and non - ferrous metals declined [40]. 3.3 Current Fundamental Situation and Rotation Status - In recent years, the prices of precious metals and non - ferrous metals have risen significantly, leading to expectations of a new commodity super - cycle. In 2025, precious metals and non - ferrous metals led the rally, energy was at the bottom, and agricultural products had not yet started [42]. - The drivers include the decline of the US dollar's reserve status, the double - loose monetary and fiscal policies in the Kondratieff depression, the demand for upstream resources driven by the AI technological revolution, the deepening of geopolitical contradictions leading to increased strategic reserves, and the return of manufacturing. However, due to the uncertain economic recovery, the typical commodity diffusion and rotation based on the cycle have not yet occurred. If the traditional economic cycle rotation becomes more obvious, the commodity rally will spread to black metals, energy, and agricultural products [46][54].

Summary of the Special Report on Silver Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **silver market** and its current dynamics, emphasizing the potential for significant price movements in 2026 [3][4]. Key Insights and Arguments - The report suggests that **2026 may be a critical moment for silver**, indicating a unique setup that aligns with their 2026 framework [3][4]. - There is a belief that the current **commodity bull market** is structural, driven by factors such as easy monetary policy, synchronized global economic expansion, and increased defense spending [8][9]. - The acceleration phase of the commodity bull market began in **August 2025**, following a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance [11][12]. - Silver prices have shown significant volatility, with a **42% increase** from $38 to $54 between August and October 2025, followed by a **16% drop** [15]. Historical Context - The report draws parallels between current market conditions and historical patterns, noting that silver has experienced similar volatility in past cycles, including **35% and 38% corrections** in 2004 and 2006, respectively [24][29]. - Historical data indicates that silver's price behavior often leads to major corrections after rapid increases, with the report highlighting that **every major top in history** was formed at lower velocity readings than current levels [49][91]. Current Market Signals - The report identifies several **key signals** indicating potential instability in the silver market, including: - The **Silver/Gold Ratio** trading significantly above its 200-day moving average, placing it in the top 99.5% of all days in the last 60 years [82]. - Silver is currently trading **2.19 times** above its 200-day moving average, also in the top 99.75% of historical levels [87]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring these signals closely as they may indicate an impending market correction [16][93]. Execution Plan - The report outlines a **specific execution plan** for traders, focusing on risk management strategies and potential put spread combinations to capitalize on expected market movements [72][74]. - It suggests that traders should consider trailing stops and be prepared to act if key warning signals are triggered [70][67]. Conclusion - The report concludes that while the current commodity bull market presents opportunities, it is essential to remain vigilant due to the potential for significant volatility and corrections [93]. - Alerts will be sent if critical signals trigger, and future reports will continue to build on key equity and macro themes [94].

Group 1 - The current commodity market shows a significant divergence compared to previous cycles, with energy and non-ferrous metals exhibiting distinct trends [1][2] - The performance of non-ferrous metal stocks is influenced not only by commodity price movements but also by the overall market environment and style shifts in the A-share market [1][6] - Industrial metal stocks have shown greater elasticity in bull markets, outperforming commodity price increases, while precious metals stocks remain closely tied to commodity prices [1][6] Group 2 - The report outlines four typical commodity bull markets since 2004, highlighting the distinct phases of global demand expansion, liquidity easing, supply-side reforms, and pandemic recovery [2] - Post-2022, the commodity market has displayed notable differentiation, with energy and black metals stabilizing after volatility, while non-ferrous metals, particularly precious metals, have shown strong upward trends [2][4] - The correlation between commodity prices and stock performance varies, with industrial metals being more affected by A-share market performance, while precious metals exhibit a stronger independent trend [6][9] Group 3 - Recent data indicates that the valuation elasticity of the A-share non-ferrous metal sector has significantly surpassed that of commodity price elasticity, particularly for copper, aluminum, and energy metals [8] - The report concludes that sectors leaning towards "forward logic" (copper, aluminum, energy metals) contribute more to valuation, while those focused on "current profitability" (precious metals) tend to follow commodity price trends closely [8]