Core Viewpoint - The "Pennsylvania Plan" proposed by Deutsche Bank aims to address the increasing U.S. deficit by reallocating U.S. Treasury ownership from foreign to domestic investors, thereby reducing reliance on foreign capital and financing the deficit through domestic resources [1][2][3]. Group 1: Economic Context - The U.S. is facing a "twin deficit" dilemma, characterized by both fiscal deficits and trade deficits, which complicates the economic landscape [5][6]. - The U.S. has a significantly negative net foreign asset position, leading to a heavy dependence on foreign funding, which constrains its sovereign independence [6][7]. Group 2: Pennsylvania Plan Strategies - The core strategy of the "Pennsylvania Plan" is to facilitate a historic transfer of U.S. Treasury holdings from foreign to domestic investors [9][10]. - The plan includes two main strategies: reducing dependence on foreign buyers and increasing domestic absorption of Treasury risks [10][11]. Group 3: Reducing Foreign Dependence - Foreign investors currently hold a record amount of U.S. sovereign risk, but demand is declining due to geopolitical shifts and increasing fiscal deficits [11][12]. - A proposed solution is to shorten the duration of foreign investors' exposure by using dollar stablecoins backed by short-term U.S. Treasuries to attract foreign capital [12]. Group 4: Increasing Domestic Absorption - The U.S. private sector has a strong balance sheet and high cash holdings, indicating potential to absorb sovereign credit risk [13]. - Policy measures may include regulatory exemptions, tax incentives, and the issuance of special bonds to encourage domestic purchases of long-term Treasuries [13]. - If incentives are insufficient, mandatory purchases of long-term Treasuries may be implemented, such as pushing retirement plans to absorb more government debt [13]. Group 5: Market Implications - The "Pennsylvania Plan" may not fundamentally resolve the twin deficit issue but could provide the U.S. government with more time by mobilizing domestic savings [14][18]. - The strategy may lead to higher Treasury yields and erosion of Federal Reserve independence, as domestic savings are pushed towards long-term fixed-income assets [15][16]. - A weaker dollar could help rebalance the U.S. external deficit, which may not necessarily be a negative outcome economically [17].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Financial Market Outlook**: The U.S. financial market is expected to perform strongly in 2023-2024 due to monetary expansion and the AI revolution, but fiscal expansion is limited in the first half of 2024, leading to capital flow towards European stocks, Hong Kong stocks, and precious metals [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **U.S. Economic Challenges**: The Trump administration's attempts to address the "twin deficits" (fiscal and trade deficits) through tariffs and debt restructuring have had limited success, with fiscal deficits expected to remain high in 2025 [1][5][9]. - **Debt Burden**: The U.S. national debt has increased significantly, with interest payments exceeding 20% of fiscal revenue, leading to a growing debt burden [1][8]. - **Global Interest Rate Trends**: Global interest rates are generally declining due to limited debt leverage expansion across major economies, which suppresses capital returns and, consequently, interest rates [1][17]. - **China's Economic Dynamics**: China's economic growth model has shifted from relying on foreign demand to domestic demand, facing challenges such as high fiscal deficits and rising interest payments [1][20][21]. - **2025 Economic Predictions for China**: Similar macroeconomic constraints as in 2023 are anticipated, including declining exports, fluctuating consumer demand, low inflation, and reduced financing needs [1][24][29]. Important but Overlooked Content - **U.S. Monetary Policy**: The U.S. M2 money supply growth is expected to slow down, indicating a cooling economy, as high interest rates deter borrowing and expansion [1][16]. - **China's Fiscal Policy Constraints**: China's interest payments are rising, with the ratio of interest payments to fiscal revenue increasing, indicating potential constraints on future fiscal policy [1][20]. - **Market Dynamics**: The bond market in 2023 showed unexpected bullish trends despite initial expectations of poor performance, driven by adjustments in deposit rates and monetary policy [1][25][26]. - **Investment Opportunities**: The global fixed income market is expected to present investment opportunities in the second half of 2025, particularly if the U.S. economic position weakens [2][41]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and trends discussed in the conference call records, highlighting the challenges and opportunities within the financial markets and the broader economic landscape.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Deutsche Bank's "Pennsylvania Plan" aims to address the increasing U.S. deficit by reducing reliance on foreign capital and utilizing domestic resources to finance the deficit [1][2][7] - The U.S. is facing a "twin deficit" dilemma, characterized by both fiscal deficit and trade deficit, which severely limits its sovereignty due to a negative net foreign asset position [2][3] - The "Pennsylvania Plan" proposes a historic shift in U.S. debt holders from foreign to domestic investors, focusing on two main strategies: reducing dependence on foreign buyers and increasing domestic absorption of U.S. debt [3][4] Group 2 - The first strategy involves decreasing reliance on foreign buyers, as demand for U.S. debt from foreign investors is declining due to geopolitical and economic factors [4][5] - The second strategy aims to enhance domestic absorption of U.S. debt by leveraging the strong balance sheets and cash reserves of the private sector, including regulatory exemptions and tax incentives [5][6] - If incentives do not sufficiently increase domestic absorption, mandatory measures may be implemented to require more long-term U.S. debt purchases from domestic entities [6] Group 3 - The market impact of the "Pennsylvania Plan" includes potential erosion of Federal Reserve independence and a weakening of the U.S. dollar, as the government seeks to mobilize domestic savings to buy more debt [7] - The strategy may lead to higher U.S. debt yields and increased pressure on the Federal Reserve to maintain a steep yield curve, which could pose financial stability risks [7] - A weaker dollar could help rebalance the external deficit, which may not necessarily be a negative outcome economically [7]

Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Overseas macro: US economic data in May, including ADP employment growth, ISM manufacturing, and services PMI, were below expectations and previous values. The OECD cut the US economic growth forecast from 2.8% to 1.6%. The Fed's "Beige Book" indicated a slight decline in economic activity and a "somewhat pessimistic and uncertain" outlook. However, consumer confidence improved after the tariff truce, with increased spending intentions and lower inflation expectations [5]. - Domestic macro: Amid the "rush export/trans - shipment" and "two new" policies, manufacturing enterprises' profits and PMI showed resilience. China's May Caixin manufacturing PMI was 48.3, lower than expected. From January to April, industrial enterprise profits were 21170.2 billion yuan, up 1.4% year - on - year. The May manufacturing PMI rebounded due to trade friction easing and policy support [5]. - Asset views: Maintain the view of more hedging and volatility overseas and a structural market in China. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets. Overseas, Trump's tariffs won't solve the US deficit problem. In China, stable - growth policies focus on existing resources. Bonds are worth allocating after the capital pressure eases, while stocks and commodities may range - bound in the short term [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Performance - **Financial markets**: Index futures showed different daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and yearly changes. For example, the CSI 300 futures had a daily increase of 0.25%, and the 2 - year treasury bond futures had a daily increase of 0.03%. Interest rates, foreign exchange, and other financial indicators also had their respective fluctuations [2]. - **Domestic commodities**: Most commodities showed varying degrees of price changes. Alumina had a significant daily decline of 3.92%, while gold had a daily increase of 0.17%. Different sectors such as shipping, precious metals, and energy had their own trends [2]. - **Overseas commodities**: NYMEX WTI crude oil decreased by 0.95% daily, and COMEX gold increased by 0.61% daily. Various overseas commodities in energy, precious metals, and agriculture also had different performance [2]. 2. Macro Analysis - **Overseas**: US economic data was weak in May, but consumer confidence improved. The OECD cut the global and US growth forecasts, and the Fed warned of economic uncertainties [5]. - **Domestic**: Manufacturing showed resilience under policies. May's manufacturing PMI rebounded, and industrial enterprise profits increased year - on - year from January to April [5]. 3. Asset Views - **Overall**: Maintain the view of more hedging and volatility overseas and a structural market in China. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets [5]. - **Domestic**: Bonds are worth allocating after the capital pressure eases, and stocks and commodities may range - bound in the short term, focusing on low - valuation and policy - driven stocks [5]. 4. Viewpoint Highlights - **Macro**: Overseas, stagflation trading cools down; in China, there may be moderate reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and fiscal policies will be implemented [7]. - **Financial**: Stock index futures have rising gaming sentiment but also concerns; index options have a slightly warm sentiment; treasury bond futures may be affected by capital and policy expectations [7]. - **Precious metals**: Gold and silver may adjust short - term due to better - than - expected Sino - US negotiations [7]. - **Shipping**: The shipping market's sentiment has declined, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the loading rate increase in June [7]. - **Black building materials**: Coal and coke supply contraction expectations increase, and black prices generally rebound, but different varieties have different trends [7]. - **Non - ferrous metals and new materials**: De - stocking slows down, and non - ferrous metals maintain a volatile trend [7]. - **Energy and chemicals**: Demand growth is lower than expected, and the sector's performance is weak, with different trends for each variety [9]. - **Agriculture**: Sino - US negotiations have a positive impact on cotton prices, and different agricultural products have their own market situations [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Overseas macro: After China and the US reached a tariff delay agreement, US consumer confidence was significantly boosted, but the improvement in the labor market was limited, and the long - term economic resilience needs further observation. Domestic macro: Manufacturing enterprises' profits and PMI maintained strong resilience. The report maintains the view of more hedging and more volatility overseas and a structural market in China, and suggests strategic allocation of gold and non - US dollar assets. For domestic assets, the export resilience and the window period of tariff relaxation support the economic growth rate in the second quarter. The bond market still has value for dip - buying after the capital pressure eases. Stocks and commodities return to the fundamental logic, showing short - term range - bound oscillations [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Essentials - **Overseas**: The consumer confidence index jumped from 85.7 to 98.0 in May. Consumers were more optimistic about the economic outlook, but the labor market improvement was limited, and the long - term economic resilience was uncertain. - **Domestic**: From January to April, the total profits of large - scale industrial enterprises reached 2.11702 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. The manufacturing PMI in May was 49.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.5 percentage points. The export resilience and tariff relaxation window period support the economic growth rate in the second quarter. - **Asset Views**: Maintain the view of more hedging and more volatility overseas and a structural market in China. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets. The bond market has dip - buying value after the capital pressure eases. Stocks and commodities show short - term range - bound oscillations [6]. 3.2 View Highlights 3.2.1 Macro - **Domestic**: Moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the short - term fiscal end implements established policies. - **Overseas**: The inflation expectation structure flattens, the economic growth expectation improves, and the stagflation trading cools down [7]. 3.2.2 Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: There are external positives, and changes should be dealt with cautiously. The short - term judgment is range - bound. - **Stock Index Options**: Volatility is further suppressed. The short - term judgment is range - bound. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Risk appetite rises, and the bullish sentiment in the bond market is suppressed. The short - term judgment is range - bound [7]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: The progress of China - US negotiations exceeded expectations, and precious metals continued to adjust in the short term. The short - term judgment is range - bound [7]. 3.2.4 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Pay attention to the game between the peak - season expectation and the implementation of price increases. The short - term judgment is range - bound [7]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The demand expectation is pessimistic, and spot transactions are weak. The short - term judgment is range - bound. - **Iron Ore**: The molten iron output decreased slightly, and the price oscillated. The short - term judgment is range - bound. - **Coke**: The off - season deepened, and the second round of price cuts was implemented. The short - term judgment is range - bound decline. - **Coking Coal**: The supply pressure remained high, and there was little support below. The short - term judgment is range - bound decline. - Other varieties such as silicon iron, manganese silicon, glass, and soda ash also have corresponding market logics, and most of the short - term judgments are range - bound [7]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: The inventory continued to accumulate, and the copper price oscillated at a high level. The short - term judgment is range - bound increase. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The event of revoking the mining license was not finalized, and the alumina futures oscillated at a high level. The short - term judgment is range - bound decline. - Other non - ferrous metal varieties such as aluminum, zinc, and lead also have corresponding market logics, and most of the short - term judgments are range - bound [7]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: There were more macro disturbances, and the supply pressure remained. The short - term judgment is range - bound. - **LPG**: The demand continued to weaken, and LPG maintained a weak range - bound oscillation. The short - term judgment is range - bound decline. - Other energy and chemical varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil also have corresponding market logics, and the short - term judgments vary from range - bound decline to range - bound increase [9]. 3.2.8 Agriculture - **Pork**: The expectation of inventory reduction drove the futures price of pork to rebound. The short - term judgment is range - bound decline. - **Rubber**: The warehouse receipts continued to be cancelled, and NR rebounded strongly. The short - term judgment is range - bound. - Other agricultural products such as cotton, sugar, and logs also have corresponding market logics, and most of the short - term judgments are range - bound [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of proposed tariffs by the U.S. government on the stock market, particularly focusing on the technology sector and the implications for U.S.-EU trade relations [4][10]. Group 1: Stock Market Performance - On May 23, U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 256.02 points (0.61%) at 41,603.07 points, the Nasdaq Composite down 188.53 points (1.00%) at 18,737.21 points, and the S&P 500 down 39.19 points (0.67%) at 5,802.82 points [1]. - For the week, the Dow and Nasdaq both fell 2.47%, losing 1,052 points and 474 points respectively, while the S&P 500 dropped 2.61%, down 155 points [1]. Group 2: Technology Sector Impact - Major tech stocks experienced declines, with Apple down over 3%, AMD nearly 3%, and Intel over 2%. Other tech giants like Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, and Meta also saw drops exceeding 1% [2]. - The article highlights a mixed performance among Chinese concept stocks, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index up 0.05%, while companies like Alibaba and NIO faced declines [2]. Group 3: Tariff Proposals and Trade Relations - President Trump announced plans to impose a 50% tariff on EU products starting June 1, citing trade barriers and unfair practices by the EU [4][5]. - The EU has initiated public consultations regarding potential countermeasures against U.S. tariffs, indicating ongoing trade tensions [5]. Group 4: Currency and Bond Market Reactions - The article notes that the U.S. dollar and bond markets are facing challenges due to the country's dual deficit status, which requires continuous foreign capital inflow [9]. - Analysts express concerns that a lack of foreign interest in U.S. debt could lead to increased volatility in exchange rates and bond yields [9]. Group 5: Hedge Fund Strategies - Goldman Sachs reports that hedge funds reduced their holdings in major U.S. tech stocks while increasing investments in Chinese companies listed in the U.S. [14]. - This shift reflects growing interest in Chinese tech stocks, which are perceived as undervalued compared to their U.S. counterparts [14].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic imbalance between the US and China, highlighting the need for rebalancing trade and currency issues to prevent a potential economic crisis similar to the Lehman Brothers collapse. Group 1: Economic Imbalance - The US trade deficit reached $1.21 trillion in 2024, increasing 1.6 times over the past decade [4] - The US external debt has grown to $27 trillion, quadrupling over 20 years, indicating a reliance on foreign borrowing to cover fiscal deficits of $1.8 trillion annually [4] - The US is experiencing a shift in its international financial standing, with interest payments exceeding $1 trillion annually, surpassing the defense budget of approximately $900 billion [4] Group 2: US-China Relations - The US and China have agreed to reduce tariffs by 115% to address economic distortions and work towards rebalancing [1] - China's manufacturing sector accounts for a quarter of its GDP, and reducing production capacity could lead to significant unemployment [5] - China's investment in the US has halved since the peak due to the aftermath of the Lehman crisis, with a shift towards the Belt and Road Initiative [5] Group 3: Currency and Trade Issues - The US has historically pressured Japan to rebalance its international payments, leading to the Plaza Accord, which resulted in the appreciation of the yen [6] - The concept of "double deficits" in the US is causing a continuous outflow of dollars, with the money supply growing 5.4 times since 2020, raising concerns about global asset bubbles and the credibility of the dollar [6] - The recent imposition of reciprocal tariffs has led to declines in the stock market, currency, and bonds, highlighting the challenges in maintaining dollar liquidity [6]

文 | 魏鑫 来源 | CFC商品策略研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 近期在美国关税政策的影响下，商品整体呈现偏弱态势，短期市场受困于捉摸不定的 美国政策，以及不明朗的经济前景。2025与1984年前后，美国经济与政策的存在共 性，我们复盘20世纪80年代的大宗商品走势，寻找未来商品行情演绎的方向。 当前美国与1984年的美国，在 经济环境、政府压力、汇率、政策 方面存在四大共 性，商品长期走势存在趋同的可能。当然， 历史并不会简单重复，在阶段性的行情表 现中，或存在走势的分化 。 01 商品价格周期性：1977、1984与2025 工业金属具有较高的价格弹性，且对经济、政策的变化极为敏感。为方便复盘，我们选 取CRB现货指数作为商品价格的代表，选取道琼斯工业指数作为美股的代表，并采用月 度均值，忽略较为短期的波动。可以发现在70年代，CRB金属的走势与2018年至今十分 相似，先从低位大幅上行，在高位明显回落之后，到达比上涨前更高的价格中枢并趋势 上行；从美股的表现来看，两个阶段的趋势性变化也有相似之处。 我们也可以找到80年代初与近五年市场走势的相似性。如果单纯地刻舟求剑，会认为近 年的价格 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the characteristics of the fiscal situation at the beginning of the year, highlighting a "low income" and "high deficit" environment, which may lead to a "technology stock-friendly" fiscal policy throughout the year [3][4][5]. Group 1: Low Income - The public fiscal revenue experienced a rare negative growth of -1.6% at the beginning of the year, with a budget target of 0.1% [4][12]. - The revenue from land sales continued to decline significantly by -15.7%, contributing to a double-digit drop in secondary account revenue of -10.7% [4][12]. - If the income side remains under pressure, it may force incremental policies that further elevate the "high deficit" and support "medium expenditure," reinforcing the "technology stock-friendly" fiscal approach [4][12]. Group 2: High Deficit - The public fiscal deficit recorded in January-February was 124 billion, marking the first occurrence of a narrow deficit at the start of the year in nearly 30 years [5][15]. - The broad fiscal deficit reached 621.7 billion, the highest for the same period in recent years, indicating a strong subjective willingness to stimulate the economy [5][15]. - The dual deficit pattern suggests that the fiscal policy continues to support risk appetite, reflecting an increase in local government activity since October of the previous year [6][15][17]. Group 3: Medium Expenditure - The growth rate of broad fiscal expenditure was 2.9%, slightly above the previous year's rate of 2.7%, indicating limited fiscal strength [7][21]. - Expenditure focused on technology (+10.6%) and social welfare (social security +6.7%, education +7.7%), while infrastructure spending was under pressure, with declines in community and agricultural spending [7][21]. - The budget arrangements for the year show that growth rates for technology and social welfare expenditures are significantly higher than the nominal GDP growth rate, while infrastructure growth is only around 1% [7][21]. Group 4: Debt Issuance - The issuance of deficit bonds has been rapid, indicating a fiscal preference for supporting consumption, with net financing of government bonds reaching nearly 1.5 trillion in Q1, the highest for the same period in recent years [9][22]. - In contrast, the issuance of new special bonds has been slow, suggesting that investment may be accelerated in the second quarter, with plans for significant special bond issuance already disclosed [9][23]. - The issuance of long-term special bonds is expected to start in the second quarter, potentially leading to more substantial physical investment [9][23]. Group 5: Fiscal Data Review - The fiscal revenue for January-February showed a rare negative growth of -1.6%, with significant contributions from sectors like rail and ship manufacturing, and computer technology [25][29]. - The expenditure growth rate for January-February was 3.4%, with a focus on technology and social welfare, reflecting the characteristics of the annual budget [46]. - The broad fiscal situation remains supported by a new high in deficits, with land sales continuing to be weak, indicating a challenging fiscal environment ahead [51][52].

Core Viewpoint - The Indonesian stock market has experienced significant declines, with the Jakarta Composite Index dropping over 4% and falling below 6000 points for the first time since 2021, reflecting investor concerns over the new government's fiscal policies and external uncertainties [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Jakarta Composite Index has cumulatively decreased by approximately 17% over the past year, making it one of the worst-performing markets globally [2]. - The Indonesian Rupiah has also depreciated against the US dollar, with a decline of about 2% this year [2]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Investor sell-offs are primarily driven by strong concerns regarding the fiscal plans of the new President Prabowo Subianto and uncertainties stemming from Trump's tariff policies [3][4]. - The establishment of a new sovereign wealth fund, Danantara, which involves transferring state-owned enterprise shares, has raised investor fears about the loss of fiscal discipline established during the previous administration [4]. Group 3: Economic Conditions - There are growing concerns about weak consumer spending, which has historically been a strong driver of Indonesia's economic growth [7][8]. - Recent deflationary data has heightened worries, with the consumer price index showing a year-on-year decline for the first time in 25 years, and consumer confidence indices dropping for two consecutive months [9]. Group 4: Government Fiscal Policies - President Prabowo has introduced an ambitious nationwide free meal program for schoolchildren and pregnant women, expected to cost around $28 billion annually, which places significant pressure on the already strained fiscal budget [10][11]. - The implementation of this program has led to extensive austerity measures across various sectors, with national revenue reportedly declining by one-fifth in the first two months of the year [11]. Group 5: Political Stability - There are speculations regarding the potential resignation of Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati, which has added to market anxiety despite government denials [12].