Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoint - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, lead, nickel, and tin on September 29, 2025 [1][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On September 29, 2025, the domestic spot price was 82,480, the LME price was 10,233, and the ratio was 8.08. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.12, with a profit of - 652.74, and the profit for spot export was 134.27. The three - month domestic price was 82,480, the LME price was 10,272, and the ratio was 8.04 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 21,950, the LME price was 2,957, and the ratio was 7.42. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.55, with a profit of - 3,338.99. The three - month domestic price was 21,995, the LME price was 2,918, and the ratio was 5.85 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20,770, the LME price was 2,651, and the ratio was 7.83. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.40, with a profit of - 1,511.91. The three - month domestic price was 20,755, the LME price was 2,656, and the ratio was 7.82 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16,900, the LME price was 1,964, and the ratio was 8.62. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.84, with a profit of - 437.61. The three - month domestic price was 17,125, the LME price was 2,006, and the ratio was 10.99 [3] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 120,550, the LME price was 15,043, and the ratio was 8.01. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.20, with a profit of - 2,042.46 [1] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot month were - 190, - 180, - 240, and - 260 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 515, 929, 1351, and 1773 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 50, - 35, - 5, and 30, and the theoretical spreads were 213, 332, 451, and 571 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 15, - 5, - 5, and 0, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 331, 446, and 562 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 50, 65, 80, and 65, and the theoretical spreads were 210, 317, 423, and 529 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were - 1300, - 1080, - 920, and - 670 [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was 310, and the theoretical spread was 5680 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were 210 and 20 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 383 and 811 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 80 and 30, and the theoretical spreads were 151 and 279 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 160 and 210, and the theoretical spreads were 167 and 280 [4] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On September 29, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous contracts) were 3.75, 3.97, 4.82, 0.94, 1.21, and 0.78 respectively, and for London (three - continuous contracts) were 3.52, 3.83, 5.08, 0.92, 1.33, and 0.69 respectively [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2) Core Viewpoints - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals on September 25, 2025, including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, etc., to help investors understand the price relationships and profit situations in different trading scenarios [1][4][5] 3) Summary by Directory Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On September 25, 2025, the domestic spot price was 80025, the LME price was 9935, and the ratio was 8.05. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.12, with a loss of 693.47, and a profit of 317.82 for spot export [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 21830, the LME price was 2941, and the ratio was 7.42. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.55, with a loss of 3318.32 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20680, the LME price was 2635, and the ratio was 7.85. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.40, with a loss of 1467.29 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 120450, the LME price was 15121, and the ratio was 7.97. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.20, with a loss of 2283.59 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16925, the LME price was 1960, and the ratio was 8.65. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.84, with a loss of 377.93 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On September 25, 2025, the spreads between the next month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot month were 30, 10, 20, and 0 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 502, 901, 1310, and 1719 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 20, 35, 50, and 75, and the theoretical spreads were 212, 330, 449, and 567 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were 20, 20, 35, and 30, and the theoretical spreads were 214, 330, 445, and 561 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 25, 50, 35, and 65, and the theoretical spreads were 210, 316, 423, and 529 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads between the next month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot month were 720, 900, 1160, and 1400 [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was 1360, and the theoretical spread was 5635 [4] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On September 25, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous) were 3.65, 3.86, 4.68, 0.95, 1.21, and 0.78 respectively, and for London (three - continuous) were 3.52, 3.90, 5.17, 0.90, 1.33, and 0.68 [5] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were - 75 and - 45 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 363 and 811 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 10 and 30, and the theoretical spreads were 159 and 286 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 115 and 140, and the theoretical spreads were 168 and 281 [5]

Report Overview - The report is the "Non-ferrous Arbitrage Morning Report" released by the Non-ferrous Team of the Research Center on September 22, 2025, focusing on cross - market, cross - period, and cross -品种 arbitrage tracking of non - ferrous metals [1] Cross - Market Arbitrage Copper - Spot price: domestic 79980, LME 9898, ratio 8.05; March price: domestic 79880, LME 9963, ratio 8.02; Spot import equilibrium ratio 8.11, profit - 331.21; Spot export profit - 55.51 [1] Zinc - Spot price: domestic 22000, LME 2969, ratio 7.41; March price: domestic 22060, LME 2918, ratio 5.87; Spot import equilibrium ratio 8.53, profit - 3326.26 [1] Aluminum - Spot price: domestic 20810, LME 2698, ratio 7.71; March price: domestic 20795, LME 2693, ratio 7.74; Spot import equilibrium ratio 8.37, profit - 1780.86 [1] Nickel - Spot price: domestic 120750, LME 15146, ratio 7.97; Spot import equilibrium ratio 8.18, profit - 2190.00 [1] Lead - Spot price: domestic 17025, LME 1967, ratio 8.64; March price: domestic 17200, LME 2011, ratio 10.97; Spot import equilibrium ratio 8.82, profit - 347.77 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Copper - Sub - month - spot month, March - spot month, April - spot month, May - spot month spreads are 230, 260, 240, 240 respectively; Theoretical spreads are 500, 898, 1305, 1712 respectively [4] Zinc - Sub - month - spot month, March - spot month, April - spot month, May - spot month spreads are 5, 25, 45, 75 respectively; Theoretical spreads are 213, 332, 452, 571 respectively [4] Aluminum - Sub - month - spot month, March - spot month, April - spot month, May - spot month spreads are 20, 20, 15, 20 respectively; Theoretical spreads are 215, 331, 447, 563 respectively [4] Lead - Sub - month - spot month, March - spot month, April - spot month, May - spot month spreads are 35, 55, 25, 30 respectively; Theoretical spreads are 211, 317, 424, 531 respectively [4] Nickel - Sub - month - spot month, March - spot month, April - spot month, May - spot month spreads are 790, 980, 1220, 1460 respectively [4] Tin - 5 - 1 spread is 640, theoretical spread is 5579 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Copper - Current month contract - spot spread is - 330, theoretical spread is 398; Sub - month contract - spot spread is - 100, theoretical spread is 874 [4] Zinc - Current month contract - spot spread is 35, theoretical spread is 182; Sub - month contract - spot spread is 40, theoretical spread is 311 [4] Lead - Current month contract - spot spread is 120, theoretical spread is 188; Sub - month contract - spot spread is 155, theoretical spread is 302 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage - Copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, lead/zinc: Shanghai (three - continuous) ratios are 3.62, 3.84, 4.64, 0.94, 1.21, 0.78 respectively; London (three - continuous) ratios are 3.46, 3.74, 5.00, 0.92, 1.34, 0.69 respectively [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - The report focuses on the cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking of non - ferrous metals (copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, tin) on September 18, 2025, presenting relevant price, ratio, spread, and theoretical spread data [1][4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Domestic spot price is 80,600, March price is 80,550, LME March price is 10,065, and the ratio is 8.00 [1]. - **Zinc**: Domestic spot price is 22,170, March price is 22,310, LME March price is 2,989, and the ratio is 5.70 [1]. - **Aluminum**: Domestic spot price is 20,890, March price is 20,930, LME March price is 2,707, and the ratio is 7.73 [1]. - **Nickel**: Domestic spot price is 120,700, and the spot import profit is - 1,549.65 [1]. - **Lead**: Domestic spot price is 16,925, March price is 17,115, LME March price is 2,005, and the ratio is 11.08 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between different months and the spot month are - 320, - 330, - 330, - 310, while the theoretical spreads are 506, 911, 1324, 1738 respectively [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads are 30, 55, 85, 120, and the theoretical spreads are 214, 335, 455, 575 respectively [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads are - 35, - 45, - 55, - 65, and the theoretical spreads are 216, 333, 450, 567 respectively [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads are 55, 60, 80, 70, and the theoretical spreads are 210, 317, 423, 529 respectively [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads are - 620, - 430, - 240, 60 [4]. - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread is 40, and the theoretical spread is 5,648 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts minus the spot are 310 and - 10, and the theoretical spreads are 524 and 924 respectively [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads are 85 and 115, and the theoretical spreads are 203 and 332 (also mentioned as 200 and 320) respectively [4][5]. - **Lead**: The spreads are 130 and 185, and the theoretical spreads are 197 and 310 respectively [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous contracts) are 3.61, 3.85, 4.71, 0.94, 1.22, 0.77 respectively [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report Core View The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals (copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, tin) on September 17, 2025, including domestic and LME prices, price ratios, spreads, and theoretical spreads. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot domestic price is 81080, LME price is 10060, ratio is 8.06; March domestic price is 80890, LME price is 10120, ratio is 8.02. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.10, profit is - 564.88 [1]. - **Zinc**: Spot domestic price is 22230, LME price is 3011, ratio is 7.38; March domestic price is 22285, LME price is 2970, ratio is 5.76. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.55, profit is - 3503.32 [1]. - **Aluminum**: Spot domestic price is 20950, LME price is 2714, ratio is 7.72; March domestic price is 20970, LME price is 2699, ratio is 7.78. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.36, profit is - 1760.95 [1]. - **Nickel**: Spot domestic price is 121550, LME price is 15221, ratio is 7.99. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.17, profit is - 1549.65 [1]. - **Lead**: Spot domestic price is 16975, LME price is 1946, ratio is 8.71; March domestic price is 17095, LME price is 1996, ratio is 11.17. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.82, profit is - 219.00 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 130, - 110, - 120, - 120 respectively, theoretical spreads are 507, 912, 1326, 1740 [4]. - **Zinc**: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 30, 50, 80, 80 respectively, theoretical spreads are 214, 334, 455, 575 [4]. - **Aluminum**: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 60, 45, 20, 15 respectively, theoretical spreads are 216, 332, 449, 566 [4]. - **Lead**: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 70, - 55, - 65, - 25 respectively, theoretical spreads are 211, 318, 424, 531 [4]. - **Nickel**: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 310, 460, 650, 770 respectively [4]. - **Tin**: 5 - 1 spread is 860, theoretical spread is 5651 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spreads for 当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 are - 95 and - 225 respectively [4]. - **Zinc**: Spreads for 当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 are 5 and 35 respectively [4][5]. - **Lead**: Spreads for 当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 are 175 and 105 respectively [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper/Zinc, Copper/Aluminum, Copper/Lead, Aluminum/Zinc, Aluminum/Lead, Lead/Zinc**: Shanghai (three - continuous) ratios are 3.63, 3.86, 4.73, 0.94, 1.23, 0.77 respectively; London (three - continuous) ratios are 3.38, 3.73, 5.04, 0.91, 1.35, 0.67 respectively [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on September 16, 2025 [1][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot price in China is 80930, LME is 10020, with a ratio of 8.13; March price in China is 80910, LME is 10082, ratio 8.02. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.10, profit - 307.15 [1] - **Zinc**: Spot price in China is 22240, LME is 2983, ratio 7.46; March price in China is 22315, LME is 2956, ratio 5.80. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.56, profit - 3280.38 [1] - **Aluminum**: Spot price in China is 20950, LME is 2691, ratio 7.78; March price in China is 21025, LME is 2687, ratio 7.82. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.37, profit - 1587.60 [1] - **Nickel**: Spot price in China is 121500, LME is 15209, ratio 7.99. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.18, profit - 2378.18 [1] - **Lead**: Spot price in China is 17000, LME is 1966, ratio 8.62; March price in China is 17190, LME is 2014, ratio 11.08. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.82, profit - 391.22 [3] Cross - period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 420, - 450, - 460, - 460 respectively, theoretical spreads are 509, 916, 1331, 1747 [4] - **Zinc**: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 60, 65, 80, 100 respectively, theoretical spreads are 214, 335, 455, 575 [4] - **Aluminum**: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 265, - 260, - 285, - 305 respectively, theoretical spreads are 217, 336, 454, 573 [4] - **Lead**: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 160, 190, 195, 190 respectively, theoretical spreads are 210, 316, 422, 528 [4] - **Nickel**: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 780, 1020, 1180, 1390 respectively [4] - **Tin**: 5 - 1 spread is 420, theoretical spread is 5673 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spreads for当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 are 450 and 30 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: Spreads for当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 are 10 and 70 respectively [4][5] - **Lead**: Spreads for当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 are 0 and 160 respectively [5] Cross - variety Arbitrage Tracking - Ratios for copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, lead/zinc are 3.63, 3.85, 4.71, 0.94, 1.22, 0.77 in Shanghai (three - continuous), and 3.42, 3.77, 5.09, 0.91, 1.35, 0.67 in London (three - continuous) [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for multiple non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on September 11, 2025, including domestic and LME prices, price ratios, equilibrium price ratios, and profit margins [1][3][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On September 11, 2025, the domestic spot price was 79,760, the LME spot price was 9,884, and the spot price ratio was 8.07. The equilibrium price ratio for spot import was 8.11, with a profit of - 232.79 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22,100, the LME spot price was 2,896, and the spot price ratio was 7.63. The equilibrium price ratio for spot import was 8.57, with a profit of - 2,724.25 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20,750, the LME spot price was 2,629, and the spot price ratio was 7.89. The equilibrium price ratio for spot import was 8.38, with a profit of - 1,287.79 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 119,450, the LME spot price was 14,992, and the spot price ratio was 7.97. The equilibrium price ratio for spot import was 8.18, with a profit of - 1,447.10 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16,700, the LME spot price was 1,932, and the spot price ratio was 8.64. The equilibrium price ratio for spot import was 8.83, with a profit of - 368.54 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On September 11, 2025, the spreads between the secondary month, third month, fourth month, and fifth month and the spot month were 110, 80, 60, and 30 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 500, 899, 1306, and 1714 [3] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 155, 150, 145, and 150 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 213, 333, 452, and 571 [3] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were 50, 40, 30, and - 5 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 330, 446, and 562 [3] - **Lead**: The spreads were - 75, - 50, - 35, and 15 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 209, 315, 420, and 525 [3] - **Nickel**: The spreads between the secondary month, third month, fourth month, and fifth month and the spot month were 330, 470, 640, and 920 [3] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was 580, and the theoretical spread was 5606 [3] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On September 11, 2025, the spreads between the current - month contract, secondary - month contract and the spot were - 25 and 85 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 129 and 586 [3] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 40 and 115 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 103 and 232 [3] - **Lead**: The spreads were 170 and 95 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 116 and 227 [3] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On September 11, 2025, for cross - variety arbitrage, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous) were 3.59, 3.84, 4.74, 0.94, 1.24, and 0.76 respectively; in London (three - continuous) were 3.47, 3.81, 5.04, 0.91, 1.32, and 0.69 respectively [6]

Core Insights - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has surpassed 20 billion yuan in scale, marking it as a significant product alongside other major bond ETFs from the company [1] - The ETF's core value lies in its approximately 20-year duration, which provides leverage benefits and makes it a rare product in the current market [2][4] - The ETF offers three main investment values: allocation value, trading value, and hedging value, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment [2][6] Allocation Value - In a downward interest rate trend, the long duration of the 30-year government bond ETF provides strong allocation value, with an average annualized return of 6.69% for a three-year holding period since 2012, compared to 5.09% for 7-10 year government bonds [2][4] Trading Value - The ETF has a higher trading value due to its longer duration and greater volatility compared to 7-10 year government bonds, with a modified duration of 19.65 years versus 7.50 years for the latter [6] - Historical data shows that during low volatility phases, the trading value of the 30-year government bond ETF becomes more pronounced [6] Hedging Value - The long duration of the ETF allows it to hedge against equity market fluctuations, with a significant occurrence of the "stock-bond seesaw" effect noted in 61.31% of the months analyzed since 2013 [6] - The ETF supports various trading strategies, including arbitrage and grid strategies, enhancing its appeal in a volatile market [6][7] Trading Mechanism - The ETF can be traded conveniently through both primary and secondary markets, with options for physical or cash subscriptions [7] - The trading efficiency is comparable to stocks, allowing for T+0 transactions, which lowers the entry barrier for investors [7] Future Outlook - Bosera aims to continue innovating and expanding its product offerings in the index product space, focusing on providing diverse investment options for investors [9]

Report Overview - The report provides cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals on September 1, 2025 [1][4][5] Cross - market Arbitrage Tracking Copper - Spot price in China is 79400, LME spot price is 9803, March price in China is 79400, LME March price is 9884, with a March ratio of 8.01. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.12, and the profit is 93.34. The profit for spot export is 49.03 [1] Zinc - Spot price in China is 22010, LME spot price is 2810, with a spot ratio of 7.83. March price in China is 22135, LME March price is 2804, with a March ratio of 6.00. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.60, and the loss is 2144.80 [1] Aluminum - Spot price in China is 20730, LME spot price is 2620, with a spot ratio of 7.91. March price in China is 20730, LME March price is 2618, with a March ratio of 7.92. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.40, and the loss is 1295.79 [1] Nickel - Spot price in China is 120150, LME spot price is 15156, with a spot ratio of 7.93. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.19, and the loss is 2013.87 [1] Lead - Spot price in China is 16650, LME spot price is 1951, with a spot ratio of 8.57. March price in China is 16900, LME March price is 1993, with a March ratio of 11.08. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.80, and the loss is 442.18 [3] Cross - period Arbitrage Tracking - For copper, zinc, aluminum, lead, and nickel, the spreads and theoretical spreads for the differences between the next month, March, April, May, and the spot month are all not available. For tin, the 5 - 1 spread is 350, and the theoretical spread is 5754 [4] Inter - period Arbitrage Tracking Copper - The difference between the next - month contract and the spot is 110, and the theoretical spread is 742 [4] Zinc - The difference between the next - month contract and the spot is 130, and the theoretical spread is 262 [5] Lead - The difference between the next - month contract and the spot is 230, and the theoretical spread is not available [5] Cross - variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (triple - continuous) are 3.59, 3.83, 4.70, 0.94, 1.23, and 0.76 respectively, and in London (triple - continuous) are 3.51, 3.79, 4.97, 0.93, 1.31, and 0.71 respectively [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Since mid - August, the spot and futures prices of rebar have weakened again, and the futures price has dropped significantly. The market is under the influence of multiple negative factors, and under the pattern of weak supply and demand, the rebar price is under pressure, but the cost increase may limit the downside space. It is expected that the steel price will show a trend of bottom - seeking through oscillation, and the performance of peak - season demand should be focused on [2][4] Summary According to Related Content Price Performance - Since mid - August, the futures price of the rebar main contract has dropped from 3,274 yuan/ton to a minimum of 3,097 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decline of nearly 5.4%. The spot price in the East China mainstream area has dropped by 80 - 110 yuan/ton during the same period, and the basis has strengthened [2] Market Negative Factors - Market sentiment has changed, the "anti - involution" trading logic has cooled down, and the previously leading varieties have started high - level adjustments. The black industry chain is restricted by its weak fundamentals, and the overall upward momentum is insufficient. The near - month rebar contracts are suppressed by the delivery logic, and the long - position willingness to take delivery is low [2] Inventory Situation - As of the week of August 22, the total rebar inventory was 6.0704 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 198,500 tons, and it has accumulated for four consecutive weeks. The inventory sales ratio is 3.116, reaching a high in recent years. The inventory in some major consumption areas has accumulated rapidly and is higher than that of the same period last year [3] Production Status - The weekly output of rebar is 214,650 tons, which has declined for two consecutive weeks, with a cumulative decrease of 65,300 tons. The reduction mainly comes from long - process steel mills. Currently, long - process steel mills are in good profit condition, and short - process steel mills have not significantly reduced production. The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills is 75.69%, still at a high level this year [3] Demand Performance - As of the week of August 22, the weekly apparent demand for rebar was 194,800 tons, remaining at a low level in recent years. The cement outbound volume and concrete shipment volume are also at low levels, with year - on - year decreases of 16.5% and 7.8% respectively. The real - estate market is still in weak recovery, and the basis strengthening may lead to profit - taking, which will increase demand - side pressure [4]