Report Summary 1. Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking (2025/07/31) - **Copper**: Spot domestic price is 79,280, LME price is 9,729, and the ratio is 8.12; for the three - month contract, domestic price is 78,940, LME price is 9,776, and the ratio is 8.10. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.19, with a loss of 736.08, and a profit of 93.60 for spot export [1]. - **Zinc**: Spot domestic price is 22,680, LME price is 2,806, and the ratio is 8.08; for the three - month contract, domestic price is 22,695, LME price is 2,809, and the ratio is 6.01. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.68, with a loss of 1,671.47 [1]. - **Aluminum**: Spot domestic price is 20,670, LME price is 2,609, and the ratio is 7.93; for the three - month contract, domestic price is 20,610, LME price is 2,613, and the ratio is 7.90. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.54, with a loss of 1,596.98 [1]. - **Nickel**: Spot domestic price is 120,950, LME price is 14,997, and the ratio is 8.07. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.27, with a loss of 2,175.84 [1]. - **Lead**: Spot domestic price is 16,725, LME price is 1,979, and the ratio is 8.46; for the three - month contract, domestic price is 16,900, LME price is 2,016, and the ratio is 11.28. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.87, with a loss of 808.38 [3]. 2. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking (2025/07/31) - **Copper**: The spreads of the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot month are 100, 110, 70, and - 20 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 496, 890, 1293, and 1697 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads of the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot month are 60, 85, 95, and 70 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 216, 338, 460, and 582 [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads of the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot month are - 20, - 35, - 80, and - 120 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 214, 329, 445, and 560 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads of the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot month are 10, 20, 40, and 40 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 209, 315, 420, and 526 [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads of the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot month are 100, 230, 440, and 690 respectively [4]. - **Tin**: The spread of the 5 - 1 contract is 530, and the theoretical spread is 5553 [4]. 3. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking (2025/07/31) - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot are - 440 and - 340 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 221 and 674 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot are - 70 and - 10 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 130 and 262 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot are 155 and 165 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 151 and 263 [5]. 4. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking (2025/07/31) - **Copper/Zinc, Copper/Aluminum, Copper/Lead, Aluminum/Zinc, Aluminum/Lead, Lead/Zinc**: The ratios for Shanghai (three - continuous contracts) are 3.48, 3.83, 4.67, 0.91, 1.22, and 0.74 respectively; for London (three - continuous contracts) are 3.48, 3.73, 4.87, 0.93, 1.31, and 0.72 respectively [5].

Group 1 - The industrial silicon futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract opening at 9090.0 CNY/ton and a decline of 4.39% observed, reaching a low of 8735.0 CNY [1] - Nanhua Futures indicates that macroeconomic sentiment continues to influence the market, with no substantial changes in the fundamentals; a key industrial silicon conference next week is anticipated to maintain a strong oscillating trend in the market [1] - Guotou Anxin Futures notes a slight increase in production capacity outside Xinjiang, while demand for organic silicon DMC has decreased due to unexpected events; a warehouse limit policy will be implemented starting August 1, which may trigger profit-taking and market corrections [1] Group 2 - Copper Crown Jinyuan Futures reports that the operating rate in Xinjiang remains at 48%, while production in Inner Mongolia and Gansu continues to decline, indicating a contraction in supply [2] - The polysilicon market is seeing rising prices influenced by the futures market, with some companies engaging in arbitrage between spot and futures [2] - The photovoltaic cell market is facing limited price increase potential due to off-season demand, with Topcon183N transactions maintaining a range of 0.275-0.28 CNY/watt; leading companies are raising distributed component prices, but face pressure from the terminal market [2]

Core Viewpoint - Options are a unique derivative instrument with a price that should have a certain correlation with the underlying asset's price, and the expiration mechanism creates an "invisible gravity" that pulls the option price back to its theoretical price based on the underlying asset's price [1] Group 1: Principles of Exercise Arbitrage - Exercise arbitrage is a special type of arbitrage that occurs when options are nearing expiration, as their prices become closer to the actual price of the underlying asset [2] - Basis refers to the price difference between synthetic futures and spot prices, where synthetic futures can be created using a combination of call and put options [3] Group 2: Opportunities for Exercise Arbitrage - In the case of undervalued in-the-money call options, the option's strike price is lower than the underlying asset's price, creating an opportunity to buy the call option and sell a higher strike put option to construct a synthetic futures long position [5] - Conversely, in the case of overvalued in-the-money put options, the option's strike price is higher than the underlying asset's price, allowing for the purchase of a high strike call option and the sale of the put option to create a synthetic futures long position [5] Group 3: Operation Process of Exercise Arbitrage - When a significant basis exists, the process begins by going long on synthetic futures through the purchase of call options and the sale of put options [6] - Simultaneously, short selling the underlying asset (e.g., ETF) locks in the risk of price fluctuations during the exercise period [7] - Upon exercise, if the synthetic futures have a low strike price, the bought call option is exercised; if it has a high strike price, the sold put option is exercised [8] - After the exercise concludes, the trader receives the underlying asset to cover the short position [9] Group 4: Key Considerations for Exercise Arbitrage - The key to exercise arbitrage is to observe the basis, as a larger synthetic futures discount increases potential arbitrage profits [10] - Risk management is crucial, achieved by short selling the underlying asset to lock in risks during the exercise period [10] - Patience is required until the exercise concludes before closing positions to realize profits [11]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on July 30, 2025, to help investors find potential arbitrage opportunities [1][4][5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot price is 79,030 (domestic) and 9,706 (LME), with a ratio of 8.15; March price is 78,860 (domestic) and 9,758 (LME), ratio 8.09. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.17, profit is - 398.80 [1]. - **Zinc**: Spot price is 22,580 (domestic) and 2,804 (LME), ratio 8.05; March price is 22,675 (domestic) and 2,808 (LME), ratio 6.03. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.65, profit is - 1,685.62 [1]. - **Aluminum**: Spot price is 20,620 (domestic) and 2,616 (LME), ratio 7.88; March price is 20,590 (domestic) and 2,619 (LME), ratio 7.86. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.51, profit is - 1,652.64 [1]. - **Nickel**: Spot price is 120,300 (domestic) and 15,004 (LME), ratio 8.02. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.25, profit is - 1,795.71 [1]. - **Lead**: Spot price is 16,750 (domestic) and 1,984 (LME), ratio 8.46; March price is 16,915 (domestic) and 2,016 (LME), ratio 11.22. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.85, profit is - 772.80 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next - month, March, April, May and the spot - month are - 160, - 140, - 180, - 240 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 497, 892, 1296, 1700 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads are 40, 60, 40, - 10, and the theoretical spreads are 216, 338, 460, 582 [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads are - 40, - 55, - 110, - 165, and the theoretical spreads are 214, 329, 445, 560 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads are 20, 35, 55, 110, and the theoretical spreads are 209, 315, 420, 526 [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads are 300, 430, 610, 870 [4]. - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread is 1060, theoretical spread is 5526 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts to the spot are - 10 and - 170, and the theoretical spreads are 296 and 710 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads are 35 and 75, and the theoretical spreads are 146 and 278 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads are 130 and 150, and the theoretical spreads are 151 and 263 [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - **Domestic (Three - Consecutive Contracts)**: Copper/zinc is 3.48, copper/aluminum is 3.83, copper/lead is 4.66, aluminum/zinc is 0.91, aluminum/lead is 1.22, lead/zinc is 0.75 [5]. - **LME (Three - Consecutive Contracts)**: Copper/zinc is 3.49, copper/aluminum is 3.76, copper/lead is 4.86, aluminum/zinc is 0.93, aluminum/lead is 1.29, lead/zinc is 0.72 [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report presents the cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data of various non - ferrous metals (copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, tin) on July 28, 2025, including domestic and LME prices, price ratios, spreads, and theoretical spreads [1][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Domestic spot price is 79400, LME spot price is 9786, spot price ratio is 8.17, and spot import profit is - 722.84 [1] - **Zinc**: Domestic spot price is 22750, LME spot price is 2838, spot price ratio is 8.02, and spot import profit is - 1763.87 [1] - **Aluminum**: Domestic spot price is 20780, LME spot price is 2649, spot price ratio is 7.84, and spot import profit is - 1734.41 [1] - **Nickel**: Domestic spot price is 122700, LME spot price is 15340, spot price ratio is 8.00, and spot import profit is - 1990.99 [1] - **Lead**: Domestic spot price is 16725, LME spot price is 2007, spot price ratio is 8.35, and spot import profit is - 974.42 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the second - month, third - month, fourth - month, and fifth - month contracts relative to the spot - month contract are - 580, - 540, - 590, and - 660 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 501, 900, 1308, and 1717 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads of the second - month, third - month, fourth - month, and fifth - month contracts relative to the spot - month contract are - 80, - 90, - 130, and - 170 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 218, 342, 465, and 589 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads of the second - month, third - month, fourth - month, and fifth - month contracts relative to the spot - month contract are - 25, - 60, - 125, and - 180 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 215, 331, 447, and 563 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads of the second - month, third - month, fourth - month, and fifth - month contracts relative to the spot - month contract are 70, 110, 100, and 170 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 209, 315, 420, and 526 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads of the second - month, third - month, fourth - month, and fifth - month contracts relative to the spot - month contract are 200, 330, 500, and 750 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The spread of the 5 - 1 contract is - 350, and the theoretical spread is 5622 [4] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for the Shanghai (three - continuous) contracts are 3.47, 3.83, 4.67, 0.91, 1.22, and 0.74 respectively; for the London (three - continuous) contracts, they are 3.46, 3.71, 4.85, 0.93, 1.31, and 0.71 respectively [5]

Report Title - The report is titled "Black Metal Weekly Report" and is from the Black Metal Research Center of Guomao Futures, dated July 28, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - The market sentiment has cooled down, and short - term volatility has increased. After the exchange restricted position - opening, the far - month coking coal contracts hit the daily limit after consecutive limit - up boards. Iron ore showed strong resistance to decline after the coking coal position - opening restriction. Different sub - sectors in the black metal industry have different supply - demand situations and investment outlooks [4] Summary by Directory 1. Steel - **Supply**: Neutral. Pig iron production decreased slightly within market expectations. Near September, production restrictions may occur due to important events. Short - process production may fluctuate in some areas during the peak power season, but it won't significantly impact the total output. Recently, the price of scrap steel has lagged behind, and some electric furnaces may increase their operating rates [6] - **Demand**: Neutral. After the price rebound, the trading volume improved, and the "buy on rising" mentality supported the demand. The spot market's liquidity is still locked. The large fluctuations in coking coal and coke may drive the trading in the black metal sector [6] - **Inventory**: Bullish. The total inventory level is low, and the inventory accumulation during the off - season is not significant, which may trigger unexpected restocking [6] - **Basis/Spread**: Bearish. The basis decreased slightly this week. The rb2510 basis in the East China region (Hangzhou) was 44 on Friday, down 20 from the previous week [6] - **Profit**: Bearish. Long - process steel mills still have profits, while short - process production profits are unstable, and the reduction in production has increased slightly [6] - **Valuation**: Neutral. The production links in the industry chain have meager profits, with relatively low relative valuation and moderately high absolute valuation [6] - **Macro and Policy**: Bullish. The market is waiting for the Politburo meeting in July to set the direction. The "anti - involution" in the industry has digested some optimistic expectations [6] - **Investment View**: Hold. Pay attention to the Politburo meeting's guidance on policies in the second half of the year. The data shows the resilience of steel products, but the large fluctuations in coking coal and coke may drive the black metal sector. Consider taking profit on positive cash - and - carry positions [6] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Hold; Arbitrage: None; Cash - and - carry: Take profit on rolling positions [6] 2. Coking Coal and Coke - **Demand**: Bullish. The five major steel products have not shown obvious inventory accumulation during the off - season. The daily average pig iron production of 247 steel mills remained at a high level, and the steel mill profitability rate increased, indicating high demand for furnace materials [48] - **Coking Coal Supply**: Bullish. Domestic over - production inspections have lowered the supply expectation. The port clearance has reached a high level, and the import window for overseas coal has opened [48] - **Coke Supply**: Neutral. Coke production has rebounded from a low level, but the coking profit has decreased, and the cost of raw coal has increased, leading to faster price increases [48] - **Inventory**: Bullish. Downstream replenishment demand has been released, and the overall inventory of coking coal and coke has shifted downstream. The total inventory has continued to decline significantly [48] - **Basis/Spread**: Bearish. The basis cost of coke and coking coal has increased, and the import window for overseas coal has opened [48] - **Profit**: Neutral. Steel mills have a high profitability rate, while coking profits are negative and the cost of raw coal has risen rapidly [48] - **Summary**: Neutral. The off - season data of the black metal industry is still good, but the previous rapid rise in futures prices may have over - anticipated the market. After the exchange restricted position - opening, the market may decline further. It is recommended to wait and take profit on previous cash - and - carry positions [48] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Take profit on previous cash - and - carry positions; Arbitrage: Hold [48] 3. Iron Ore - **Supply**: Bullish. The shipping volume will seasonally increase in the following weeks, but the typhoon weather has affected the arrival and unloading rhythm. The arrival volume will decline later, and the supply pressure is not significant based on the current pig iron demand [94] - **Demand**: Neutral. The pig iron production of steel mills decreased slightly this week due to a temporary blast furnace maintenance. The steel mill profitability rate reached a new high this year, and the port inventory increased slightly [94] - **Inventory**: Neutral. Although the arrival volume usually increases in July and August, it is difficult to enter a large - scale inventory accumulation stage in the short term with high pig iron production [94] - **Profit**: Neutral. Steel mills' profits are still high, so pig iron production can remain at a high level in the short term [94] - **Valuation**: Neutral. With high pig iron production, the short - term valuation is relatively neutral [94] - **Summary**: Neutral. Pig iron production remained at a high level with small fluctuations. Iron ore showed strong resistance to decline after the coking coal position - opening restriction. The port inventory accumulation is small, and there is still room for the port inventory to decline in the short term. It is not recommended to short the black metal market in the short term [94] - **Investment View**: Consolidation - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Buy on dips; Arbitrage: Hold [94]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, urea spot prices are weakly operating. In the futures market, last week, urea futures showed an N - shaped trend. Looking ahead to next week, in an environment where commodity futures decline significantly, urea futures are expected to open and move lower. There is a possibility of a large outflow of cash - and - carry arbitrage goods, leading to a negative feedback loop, and the weak situation is expected to be maintained in the short term. However, domestic urea production has decreased month - on - month, external demand has increased month - on - month, and domestic demand has strengthened month - on - month. It is recommended to actively close short positions after a significant decline in futures and wait for opportunities to enter long positions [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overview - **Supply**: From July 17 - 24, 2025, the weekly average daily output was 19.35 million tons. It is expected to be 19.00 million tons from July 25 - 31, 19.00 million tons from August 1 - 7, and 19.43 million tons from August 8 - 14. Last week, 4 new enterprises stopped production and 4 resumed, and this week, 2 enterprises are expected to conduct maintenance and 2 stopped enterprises are expected to resume production [5]. - **Agricultural Demand**: Agricultural demand is gradually ending and will basically disappear later [5]. - **Demand**: The compound fertilizer start - up rate was 32.55% from July 17 - 24, 2025, and is expected to increase slowly. In the 30th week of 2025 (July 18 - 24), the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 33.58%, a month - on - month increase of 1.03 percentage points. From January to June, the cumulative domestic thermal power generation was 2940.9 billion kWh, a year - on - year decrease of 2.4%. Later, as the temperature rises, the consumption of urea for thermal power denitrification will increase [5]. - **Inventory**: On July 23, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 858,800 tons, a decrease of 36,700 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 4.10%. The inventory of domestic urea enterprises continued to decline this cycle, but the decline narrowed [5]. - **Cost**: The production cost of the fixed - bed process in urea factories in Shanxi was 1300 yuan, and the anthracite price fluctuated [5]. - **Profit**: The production profit of the fixed - bed process in urea factories in Shanxi was 390 yuan and is expected to increase. The current profit is at a reasonable level, and with potential exports, the profit is expected to strengthen [5]. - **Strategy**: After a significant decline, maintain a long - position thinking for UR2509 and UR2509 - UR2601. For options, use a cumulative purchase option for UR2509 [5]. 3.2 Price - **Domestic Urea Spot Price**: Data on domestic urea spot prices in Henan, Sichuan, and different particle sizes in Shanxi from 2021 - 2025 are presented [7][8]. - **International Urea Price and Spread**: Data on international urea prices, spreads such as small - particle urea (Shandong factory port - collection profit), small - particle urea (Middle East - Shandong factory port - collection cost), and FOB prices of small - particle urea in China and the Middle East from 2021 - 2025 are presented [9][10]. - **Phosphate and Potassium Fertilizer Prices**: Data on the prices of phosphate and potassium fertilizers such as Hubei monoammonium phosphate, Hubei diammonium phosphate, and Shandong potassium chloride from 2021 - 2025 are presented [11][12]. - **Urea Futures Price, Basis, and Inter - month Spread**: Data on urea futures prices, basis, and inter - month spreads from 2021 - 2025 are presented [14][15]. 3.3 Supply - **Urea Production**: Data on the weekly average daily production of urea, natural - gas - made urea, and coal - made urea from 2021 - 2025 are presented [17][18]. - **Urea Cost and Profit**: Data on the cost of anthracite and bituminous coal, and the marginal profit of the fixed - bed process in Shanxi and the new process in Henan from 2021 - 2025 are presented [20][21]. - **Urea Inventory and Apparent Consumption**: Data on urea enterprise inventory, port inventory, domestic average daily apparent consumption, and enterprise - perspective average daily apparent consumption from 2021 - 2025 are presented [23][24]. 3.4 Demand - **Compound Fertilizer Industry**: Data on the start - up rate and inventory of compound fertilizer enterprises from 2021 - 2025 are presented [27][28]. - **Melamine Industry**: Data on the weekly output, price, and melamine/urea price ratio of melamine from 2021 - 2025 are presented [29][30]. - **Export**: Data on China's monthly and cumulative monthly urea export volume and year - on - year changes from 2021 - 2025 are presented [31][32]

Summary of the Float Glass Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The float glass industry is currently experiencing a potential rebound opportunity as the fundamentals appear to have bottomed out, with a consensus on reversing the "involution" trend [1][2] - Key cost factors include fuel and soda ash prices, which remain critical for maintaining production viability [1][2] Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Sentiment and Policy Impact**: Market sentiment has improved due to policy influences, although the effectiveness of these policies remains to be seen. The futures market has seen price increases, leading to greater hedging activities [1][2][3] - **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: The supply-demand relationship has not fundamentally changed, with downstream sentiment still low. Inventory levels have decreased slightly but remain high historically [1][5][12] - **Profitability and Cost Structure**: Companies are facing challenges with profitability, as many are at breakeven points. If losses exceed 10%-20%, sustainability becomes questionable [2][8][10] - **Hedging Activities**: Hedging interest remains stable, but some manufacturers have become less enthusiastic due to rapid price increases in the futures market [4][6] Key Challenges - **Demand Weakness**: The current real estate market is weak, limiting significant demand growth for float glass. Even with supportive policies, substantial improvements in demand are unlikely [24] - **Cash Flow and Inventory Pressure**: Most companies are not facing cash flow issues at current price levels, but inventory pressures remain significant, especially in the context of high historical levels [11][12][15] - **Market Uncertainty**: There is a general sense of caution among market participants due to uncertainties regarding future price movements and the effectiveness of policy measures [6][32] Additional Important Points - **Regional Variations**: Different regions exhibit varying levels of profitability and inventory management, with some areas like Hubei showing more hedging demand due to price differentials [4][6][10] - **New Market Participants**: New entrants into the market are primarily capital-driven rather than industry-focused, which may affect market dynamics [7] - **Environmental Policies**: Potential environmental regulations could significantly impact supply, particularly if restrictions on certain fuels are enforced [27][28] Conclusion - The float glass industry is at a critical juncture, with potential for recovery contingent on effective policy implementation, real estate market recovery, and global economic conditions. Continuous monitoring of inventory levels, cash flow, and market sentiment will be essential for navigating the upcoming challenges and opportunities [5][17][24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals (copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, tin) on July 25, 2025 [1][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On July 25, 2025, the domestic spot price was 79,790, the LME price was 9,897, and the ratio was 8.05; the domestic March price was 79,920, the LME price was 9,947, and the ratio was 8.01. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.14, with a profit of - 630.69, and the profit for spot export was 402.52 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22,870, the LME price was 2,875, and the ratio was 7.95; the domestic March price was 23,015, the LME price was 2,876, and the ratio was 5.86. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.62, with a profit of - 1,901.83 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot and March prices were both 20,730, the LME spot price was 2,648, the March price was 2,646, and the ratio was 7.82. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.48, with a profit of - 1,741.60 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 122,850, the LME price was 15,403, and the ratio was 7.98. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.22, with a profit of - 2,151.35 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16,650, the LME price was 2,011, and the ratio was 8.30; the domestic March price was 16,935, the LME price was 2,036, and the ratio was 11.26. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.81, with a profit of - 1,022.60 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On July 25, 2025, the spreads of the next - month, March, April, and May contracts relative to the spot month were 370, 400, 360, and 270 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 500, 897, 1304, and 1710 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 95, 95, 45, and 0 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 218, 341, 465, and 588 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 55, - 85, - 155, and - 210 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 331, 447, and 563 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 80, 125, 145, and 150 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 209, 314, 419, and 524 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were 1140, 1300, 1490, and 1720 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was 240, and the theoretical spread was 5663 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot were - 240 and 130 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 337 and 832 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 50 and 145 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 180 and 313 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 160 and 240 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 174 and 285 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On July 25, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (triple - continuous) were 3.47, 3.86, 4.72, 0.90, 1.22, and 0.74 respectively; in London (triple - continuous), they were 3.47, 3.73, 4.88, 0.93, 1.31, and 0.71 respectively [5]

7月24日，焦煤期货主力合约再度涨停，报收1198元/吨，从而刷新近5个月高点。目前，焦煤期货已连 续6个交易日上涨，累计涨幅32.5%。焦炭期货也出现跟涨，24日收报1735元/吨。 一德期货分析，当前焦煤及焦炭供应格局仍显紧平衡，前期山西等地的环保、安监等因素导致的减产尚 未完全恢复；同时本轮盘面上涨显著带动了现货补库、期现套利（正套）入场以及贸易商囤货行为，这 些操作共同加速了现货去库节奏，共同推动价格上涨。 行业人士对第一财经称，当前资金扰动明显，部分品种如多晶硅、碳酸锂的基本面仍处于"强预期、弱 现实"局面，不过煤炭供应格局偏紧，随着前期两轮现货提涨落地，或继续带动这轮行情火热。 沉寂数月的焦煤期货迎来"六连涨"行情 沉寂数月的焦煤期货迎来"六连涨"行情。 资金涌入，煤炭期现货携手上涨 反内卷政策催化下，煤炭期货从6月初的709元/吨低位反弹， 如今冲上1198元/吨，两个月累计涨幅超 53%。 拉长周期看，国家统计局最新公布的数据显示，截至2025年7月中旬，焦煤(主焦煤)流通领域价格环比 上涨6.98%，报1150元/吨。 "由于钢厂的高利润，焦煤焦炭需求尚可，短期对煤焦价格有一定支撑。"魏亚如 ...