1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the financial futures market, the market sentiment is positive, and the profit - making effect persists. The long position in the CSI 300 Index IF2509 can be held. In the commodity futures market, lithium carbonate and polysilicon are likely to rise in the short term[1]. - The stock index may continue to fluctuate upward in August under the influence of policy support, the recovery of corporate earnings from the bottom, and abundant liquidity. The bond market is in a volatile pattern with potential upward pressure and significant long - term risks[1]. - Gold prices have strong support, and silver maintains a long - position pattern. Copper, aluminum, nickel, and other non - ferrous metals are in a volatile pattern. Lithium carbonate is bullish, and polysilicon has support at the bottom[1][4][5][6]. - Steel products such as rebar, hot - rolled coils, and iron ore are in a volatile pattern. Coke and coking coal are cautiously bullish. Soda ash and float glass are in a volatile pattern[5][6][7]. - Crude oil is in a short - term bearish pattern. Methanol, polyolefin are in a volatile pattern. Cotton is in a bearish pattern, and rubber is cautiously bullish[9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Futures 3.1.1 Stock Index - The market sentiment is positive, with the ChiNext Index leading the rise on Monday. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets expanded to 1.85 trillion yuan. Industries such as computers, communications, and electronics led the gains, while the banking, petrochemical, and coal sectors declined slightly. The stock index futures rose with the spot market, and the basis discount of each contract was repaired. With policy support, the recovery of corporate earnings from the bottom, and abundant liquidity, the stock index may continue to fluctuate upward in August. It is advisable to hold a long - position mindset and pay attention to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the effect of anti - involution policies[1]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bond - The bond market sentiment is weak, and the long - end pressure continues. The inflation performance is average, the real estate expectation has improved, and the anti - involution expectation persists. The overseas trade relationship is still volatile, and there is uncertainty. The central bank has a net withdrawal in the open market, and the cost of funds has slightly recovered but remains at a low level. The bond market has support under the liquidity support, but the potential positive factors are limited, and the negative factors are increasing. The market sentiment is fragile, and the valuation is high, so there is still pressure above the bond futures, especially for long - term bonds[1]. 3.2 Commodity Futures 3.2.1 Precious Metals - Gold prices are supported by factors such as the risk of stagflation in the United States, interest - rate cut expectations, the debt cycle, and the US dollar credit. Although the gold price encountered resistance and pulled back when testing the pressure level again, the support below is still strong. The gold - silver ratio still has room for repair, and the long - position pattern of silver is clear. It is recommended to continue holding the short - position of out - of - the - money put options on the 10 - contract of gold and silver, and patiently hold the long - position of silver[4]. 3.2.2 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price is affected by factors such as general inflation performance, improved real estate expectations, and volatile overseas trade relations. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is strong, but the inflation impact persists, and the US dollar index has risen slightly. The supply and demand situation is complex, with some copper mines in Chile resuming production while others near the accident site remaining closed. The domestic demand in the peak season has optimistic expectations, but the US copper import demand may be weak. The copper price may continue to fluctuate[4]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: The macro - environment is similar to that of copper. The alumina supply is expected to be in surplus, and the inventory of Shanghai aluminum is accumulating, but the seasonal pressure may gradually decrease. The supply increase is limited due to capacity constraints. The aluminum alloy is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to be in a volatile range[4]. - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel ore is relatively abundant, the price of nickel iron has strengthened slightly, the intermediate product capacity is still sufficient, and the refined nickel is in a clear surplus with high inventory. Affected by positive factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, the extension of the Sino - US tariff truce, and the promotion of anti - involution policies, the nickel price has rebounded from a low level, but the surplus fundamentals limit the upside. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term, and the short - option strategy is relatively advantageous[6]. 3.2.3 Energy and Chemicals - **Lithium Carbonate**: The shutdown of the Jiaxiaowo Mine has boosted market sentiment, and the lithium price is likely to rise in the short term. However, the probability of all 7 lithium - related mines in Yichun shutting down is low, and the high - price lithium salt has stimulated the production enthusiasm of the smelting sector, leading to the accumulation of inventory. Attention should be paid to the impact of the shutdown cycle of the Jiaxiaowo Mine on market expectations[6]. - **Silicon - related Products**: The supply of industrial silicon has recovered, and the supply and demand of polysilicon are relatively balanced in the short term. The price of polysilicon has been pushed up by downstream replenishment inquiries, and the market has support at the bottom[6]. - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical factors such as the US sanctions on India for importing Russian oil and China's reduction in Saudi crude oil purchases have affected the market. The market's expectation of oil prices has further cooled, and the oil price is likely to be weak in the short term under the background of increasing supply[9]. - **Methanol**: The supply pressure in coastal areas is increasing, with the expected increase in imports in August and September. If the coastal methanol can flow inland, the supply pressure will be relieved, and the futures price is expected not to fall below 2300 yuan/ton. The price will rise again as the import volume decreases in the fourth quarter[9]. - **Polyolefin**: The suspension of Sino - US tariffs may be extended, which is beneficial to the market sentiment. However, the supply is expected to be loose with the restart of some maintenance devices and the launch of new devices, which limits the significant rise of prices[9]. 3.2.4 Steel and Minerals - **Rebar**: The spot price of rebar is strong, but the marginal pressure has emerged. The anti - involution long - term logic still holds. The support of coking coal prices and the high enthusiasm of blast - furnace production support the steel - making cost. The rebar futures price is expected to run in the range of [3150, 3300]. It is recommended to hold the short - position of out - of - the - money put options on RB2510P3000 and consider the arbitrage opportunity of going long on 01 iron ore/coking coal and shorting 01 rebar[5][6][7]. - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: The spot price of hot - rolled coils is strong, but the marginal pressure has emerged. The anti - involution long - term logic still holds. After the end of the phased environmental protection restrictions, the steel mills will actively resume production, which is conducive to supporting the price of furnace materials and the steel - making cost. The hot - rolled coil futures price is expected to run in the range of [3350, 3500]. It is recommended to wait for the further accumulation of fundamental contradictions or the clarification of policy, and consider the arbitrage opportunity of going long on 01 iron ore/coking coal and shorting 01 hot - rolled coils[5][6][7]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand structure of imported iron ore has weakened marginally, but the current steel mills' profits are good. Once the phased environmental protection restrictions end, the steel mills will increase production, which will support the demand for iron ore. The price of the 01 - contract of iron ore is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term. It is recommended to participate in the arbitrage opportunity of going long on iron ore and shorting rebar in the 01 - contract[7]. 3.2.5 Coke and Coking Coal - **Coking Coal**: The self - inspection of coal mine production by the Energy Bureau will last until August 15, and there is an expectation of production suspension for over - producing mines. The supply of raw coal is expected to be tightened, which supports the coal price. However, the enthusiasm for pithead auction quotes has weakened marginally, and there is a risk of short - term over - rise in the expectation - driven market[7]. - **Coke**: The spot price of coke has increased for the sixth time, and the coking profit has continued to repair. However, most coking enterprises are still at the break - even point, and the enthusiasm for further increasing production is limited. The in - furnace demand for coke still has support, but there is an expectation of production restrictions in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region in the middle and late of this month, and the spot market may stabilize[7]. 3.2.6 Soda Ash and Float Glass - **Soda Ash**: The fundamental driving force is downward, with the daily production of soda ash rising to 108,500 tons, and the demand being weaker than the supply. The alkali plant's inventory has continued to accumulate. However, the anti - involution long - term logic still holds, and the short - term price decline has slowed down. It is recommended to exit the short - position of the 09 - contract opportunistically[7]. - **Float Glass**: The rigid demand for glass has not improved significantly, and the speculative demand is weak. The production - sales ratio of float glass in four major regions has been below 100% since August, and the glass factory is expected to continue to accumulate inventory. However, the anti - involution long - term logic still holds, and there is an expectation of policy support. It is recommended to exit the short - position of the 9 - contract opportunistically and be relatively optimistic about the 01 - contract[7]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The new cotton in the main producing areas is growing well, and the probability of a bumper harvest has increased. However, the downstream replenishment is cautious, and the market expectation is pessimistic. Whether the开机率 can return to a high level in the peak season from September to October remains to be seen. The cotton price is in a weak trend[9]. - **Rubber**: The inventory in Qingdao bonded areas and general trade has decreased rapidly, the tire enterprises' production is active, and the terminal automobile market consumption is stimulated by policies. The demand expectation is turning positive. Although the main producing countries are in the traditional production - increasing season, the raw material output rate is lower than expected, and the natural rubber fundamentals are continuously improving. The rubber price is expected to maintain a volatile rebound pattern this week[9].

本ID说过，牛市二阶段有色一般会闪亮登场，如果有色没有行情，牛市的成色将大打折扣。 有色第一波果然来了，又回调了。根据历史经验，有色的基底结构通常时间比较短，攻击节奏比较快。 根据历史经验，做拉垮的第三基底行业不如第一基底行业更有胜率，也更有盈亏比。 天齐锂业(日线.等比前复权.对数) ◎ M6(10,20,50,150,200,13) VWA50: 36.3 VWA150: 34.1 VWA200: 35.6 HOLD: 38.9 : 35.6 RSLINE: 47 75.2 (85.3 54.7 42.94 38.9 - 34.66 ● VOL 金(3,21) VVOL: 3319537408.00 VOLUME: 3319537408.00 MAVOL1: 2780459520.00 MAVOL2: 2255824640.00 Co 15.08 BS: 15.00 ZR: 0.11 2025年 6 8 7 盛新锂能(日线.等比前复权.对数) ◎ M6(10,20,50,150,200,13) VWA50: 14.3 VWA150: 13.8 VWA200: 14.5 HOLD: 15.9 : 14.5 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high for the year before experiencing a decline in the afternoon, closing up 0.17% at 3615.72 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.77% to 11203.03 points and the ChiNext Index dropped 1.62% to 2367.68 points [2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was approximately 187.13 billion yuan, an increase of over 40 billion yuan compared to the previous day [2] Sector Performance - The brokerage sector saw declines, with Zhongjin Securities hitting the daily limit down [2] - The non-ferrous metals sector also faced losses, with China Tungsten High-Tech hitting the daily limit down and Shenghe Resources dropping over 8% [2] - Conversely, the tourism sector experienced gains, with Tibet Tourism achieving an 8-day consecutive rise and both Caesar Travel and Tianfu Culture hitting the daily limit up [2] Film and Entertainment Sector - The film sector saw significant gains, with Happiness Blue Sea hitting the daily limit up at 20%, accumulating over 110% in the last five trading days [5][7] - The summer box office for 2025 has surpassed 5.7 billion yuan, with the film "Nanjing Photo Studio" performing exceptionally well, contributing an expected 3 billion yuan to the box office [7] - Analysts predict that the summer box office will see substantial recovery due to the release of several major films, signaling a positive outlook for the film industry [7] Baby and Child Sector - The baby and child sector saw a surge, with stocks like Zhujiang Co., Taimoshi, and Beiyinmei hitting the daily limit up [9] - The government announced a budget of approximately 90 billion yuan for a new childcare subsidy program, which is expected to benefit over 20 million families annually [11] - Analysts believe that the implementation of the childcare subsidy will boost birth rates and positively impact the performance of mother and baby retail chains [11] New Energy Vehicle Sector - The new energy vehicle sector experienced a significant downturn, with Li Auto dropping nearly 13% and CATL falling close to 8% [13] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a meeting to discuss further regulation of the new energy vehicle industry, focusing on product safety and quality [15] - Analysts suggest that technological advancements and regulatory reforms will drive the industry forward, with a focus on artificial intelligence and autonomous driving technologies [15]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the upward trend in the rare earth sector, driven by price adjustments in rare earth concentrate, which supports the profitability expectations of related companies [1] - The Northern Rare Earth and Baotou Steel have raised the trading price of rare earth concentrate for Q3 to 19,109 RMB/ton, reflecting a 1.5% increase month-on-month, indicating a tightening supply-demand balance in the upstream resource sector [1] - The performance of the Rare Earth Permanent Magnet concept stocks has strengthened significantly, with Northern Rare Earth rising by 9.92% and Shenghe Resources by 8.00%, showcasing the positive market reaction to the price increase [1] Group 2 - The Guotai Junan Securities report indicates that the Guozheng Nonferrous Index (399395.SZ) is expected to achieve a 17.63% increase by June 2025, ranking it among the top in its category, with a total of 12 paired funds and a high information ratio group accounting for 33% [1] - Minmetals Securities has released strategic reports on minor metals, emphasizing the trend of strategic resource value reassessment during the price increase cycle for minor metals, while also noting the need to monitor agricultural demand and capacity release impacts on specific sectors [1]

Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance on June 27, with the Shanghai Composite Index declining by 0.7% to 3424.23 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.34% to 10378.55 points and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.47% to 2124.34 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets was 157.59 billion yuan, a decrease of 47.6 billion yuan from the previous day [1] Sector Performance - The banking and insurance sectors dragged down the Shanghai Composite Index, with major banks like Qingdao Bank, Hangzhou Bank, and Chongqing Bank each falling over 4% [1][3] - The non-ferrous metals sector performed strongly, with stocks like Electric Alloy and Northern Copper reaching their daily limit [6] - The semiconductor sector saw gains, with Longxin Zhongke rising over 13% and Chip Original shares increasing by about 6% [1] - The CPO concept stocks were active, with companies like Lian Te Technology hitting the daily limit and Yuanjie Technology rising nearly 7% [1] Banking Sector Analysis - The banking sector experienced a significant decline, with several major banks reporting drops of over 3% to 4% [3][4] - Analysts suggest that the early dividend payout dates for banks this year may have prompted investors to sell after receiving dividends [3] Non-Ferrous Metals Sector Insights - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a strong performance, with significant gains in stocks like Electric Alloy and Jiangxi Copper, which rose by approximately 6% [6][7] - Analysts believe that the precious metals sector will continue to perform well due to factors such as the weakening of the US dollar credit system and rising geopolitical risks [8] AI Industry Chain Activity - AI-related stocks, particularly in the copper cable connection and CPO concepts, saw substantial increases, with companies like Chuangyitong and Xin Ya Electronics hitting their daily limits [9][10] - The demand for AI model training and inference remains strong, with advancements in system-level products expected to drive growth in the AI sector [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the positive performance of the non-ferrous ETF fund and its associated index, driven by strong gains in key component stocks, particularly in the rare earth sector [1] - As of June 11, the non-ferrous ETF fund (159880.SZ) rose by 2.29%, while the associated index, Guozheng Non-Ferrous (399395.SZ), increased by 2.10% [1] - Key component stocks such as Zijin Mining, Northern Rare Earth, and Huayou Cobalt experienced significant price increases, with Northern Rare Earth rising by 4.74% and Huayou Cobalt by 3.39% [1] Group 2 - The recent comments from China's Vice Minister of Commerce, Li Chenggang, regarding the US-China trade negotiations have positively influenced the rare earth permanent magnet sector, leading to a strong market response [1] - The implementation of China's export controls on heavy rare earths, which account for 80% of global supply, combined with transportation disruptions due to a recent earthquake in Myanmar, has resulted in overseas companies aggressively purchasing inventory, causing some prices to increase by over 200% in a month [1] - This news has boosted the performance of related stocks in the rare earth permanent magnet industry, contributing to the overall rise of the non-ferrous ETF fund [1]