有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2026 年 1 月 7 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | | 隔夜内外铜价联袂走高，LME 铜收盘价再创历史新高，国内精炼铜进口维系亏损。宏 | | | 观方面，美联储内部就降息路径继续产生较大分歧，里士满联储主席巴尔金称利率已 | | | 至中性水平，而理事米兰表示数据支持进一步降息，今年幅度或超 100 个基点。国内方 | | | 面，央行工作会议上明确 2026 年重点工作，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，灵活高效 | | | 运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具。库存方面，LME 库存增加 3525 吨至 146075 吨； | | 铜 | Comex 库存增加 4996 吨至 461654 吨；SHFE 铜仓单增加 2989 吨至 93271 吨，BC 铜维 | | | 持 1053 吨。需求方面，因铜价持续高位，终端订单有所放缓，市场维系刚性采购需求。 | | | 贵金属表现持续乐观下，做多情绪正在传导，尽管当下铜基本面表现并不乐观，但市场 | | | 对 26 年经济复苏仍存较强预期，资金成为短线铜价的主要推手，调整节奏被延后，操 ...

家电板块，依托政策以旧换新与绿色升级红利，需求端有望持续改善。九部门政策明确提出推广绿色家电家装、完善能效水效标准，为行业绿色转型划定方 向。华泰研究预测，2026年以旧换新补贴规模或达2500亿元，重点聚焦核心大家电与高能效产品，将直接拉动行业终端需求释放。流动性方面，自由现金流 ETF基金盘中换手0%，成交3625.70元。拉长时间看，截至1月6日，自由现金流ETF基金近1月日均成交3583.73万元。 （以上所列股票仅为指数成份股，无特定推荐之意） 自由现金流ETF基金(159233)，场外联接(平安中证全指自由现金流ETF联接A：024887；平安中证全指自由现金流ETF联接C：024888)。 自由现金流ETF基金紧密跟踪中证全指自由现金流指数，中证全指自由现金流指数选取100只自由现金流率较高的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映现金 流创造能力较强的上市公司证券的整体表现。 数据显示，截至2025年12月31日，中证全指自由现金流指数(932365)前十大权重股分别为中国海油(600938)、上汽集团(600104)、格力电器(000651)、中远海 控(601919)、牧原股份(002714)、中 ...

保险板块今日再度走高，新华保险大涨超6%突破80元大关，中国太保涨逾5%，均续创历史新高；中国 人寿、中国平安涨近3%。 6日，A股延续强势，集体飙升，沪指13连阳再创10年来新高，全A成交超2.8万亿元，超4100股飘红， 逾140股涨停，市场热度明显升温。港股亦走高，两大股指均涨超1%。 具体来看，沪指高开高走，盘中延续强势上扬态势，突破前期高点，逼近4100点，再创10年来新高。创 业板指盘中探底回升。截至收盘，沪指涨1.5%报4083.67点，深证成指涨1.4%，创业板指涨0.75%，科创 50指数涨1.84%，北证50指数涨1.82%，沪深北三市合计成交2.83万亿元，较此前一日增加约2650亿元。 市场整体活跃，保险、券商板块扛起领涨大旗，新华保险、中国太保涨超5%续创新高，华林证券、华 安证券双双涨停，东方财富（300059）涨近6%，全日成交近224亿元，位居A股成交额第一位；有色板 块集体飙升，常铝股份、锡业股份等涨停，紫金矿业（601899）涨超6%创历史新高，全日成交超130亿 元；人脑工程概念持续活跃，倍益康、伟思医疗、三博脑科等斩获两连板；无人驾驶概念崛起，万集科 技、雷尔伟等涨停， ...

有色板块再度走强，铜、铝等工业金属方向领涨，洛阳钼业、宏创控股、中矿资源、紫金矿业涨超 4%，创历史新高，此前贵研铂业涨停，华友钴业、锡业股份、中国铝业、华锡有色等跟涨。 ...

A股高开，沪指涨0.09%，创业板指涨0.15%。先进封装、存储器、消费电子、商业航天、光伏题材走强，稳定币、能源金属概念股走弱。北交所 新股N蘅东光上市涨逾1000%。 港股低开，恒生指数低开0.21%，恒生科技指数跌0.22%。携程集团、京东集团、网易等走弱；新能源车概念股走强，蔚来、小鹏汽车、理想汽车 纷纷上涨。 国内商品期市开盘多数上涨，沪镍涨3.05%，集运指数(欧线)涨2.19%，碳酸锂涨2.02%，铂金跌5.81%，低硫燃料油跌1.50%，沥青跌0.86%，铁矿 石跌0.69%。 国债期货开盘，30年期主力合约涨0.04%，10年期主力合约涨0.05%，5年期主力合约涨0.02%，2年期主力合约涨0.00%。 10:04 有色板块早盘拉升，江西铜业冲击涨停，云南铜业、盛达资源、国城矿业、精艺股份、紫金矿业等涨超5%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600362 | 江西铜业 | 55.03 | 9.51% | 4.78 | | 000603 | 盛达资源 | 32.75 | 6.96% | 2.13 ...

【导读】A股市场冲高回落，有色板块震荡拉升，商业航天板块再度活跃 中国基金报记者 李智 一起来 看下上午的市场情况及最新资讯。 12月26日上午， A股市场冲高回落， 上证指数跳水转跌，创业板指回吐早盘近1%涨幅。截至午间收盘，沪指跌0.19%，深成指涨 0.17%，创业板指跌0.15%。 | 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 北证50 | | --- | --- | --- | | 3952.09 | 13554.07 | 1459.17 | | -7.53 -0.19% +22.66 +0.17% +1.21 +0.08% | | | | 科创50 | 创业板指 | 万得全A | | 1342.12 | 3234.63 | 6407.02 | | -6.94 -0.51% -4.72 -0.15% -2.87 -0.04% | | | | 沪深300 | 中证500 | 中证A500 | | 4643.95 | 7415.97 | 5646.41 | | +1.41 +0.03% | +5.26 +0.07% | +9.67 +0.17% | | 中证1000 | 深证100 | 中证红利 | | 7570.9 ...

每经AI快讯，神火股份（SZ 000933，收盘价：26.72元）12月22日晚间发布公告称，因工作变动，张敬 军先生申请辞去副总经理、总工程师职务。张敬军先生除将继续担任公司创新发展研究院下设煤炭绿色 高效智能开采研究院院长职务外，不再担任公司其他职务。 2025年1至6月份，神火股份的营业收入构成为：有色占比69.42%，采掘业占比14.13%，电解铝深加工 占比10.85%，贸易占比3.82%，其他行业占比1.72%。 截至发稿，神火股份市值为601亿元。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——新能源重卡爆单了，11月销量同比增长178%！两班倒都供不应求，客户直 接进厂催单，这情景十年难遇 （记者 曾健辉） ...

今天，A股三大指数集体走强。截至收盘，上证指数上涨0.69%，深证成指、创业板指数分别上涨 1.47%、2.23%。沪深两市成交额达到18619亿元，较上一个交易日放量1360亿元。 整个市场有2984只个股上涨，2265只个股下跌，个股涨跌幅的中位数为上涨0.18%。 受近期海外AI叙事逻辑悲观情绪逐步缓和的影响，今天AI硬件股普遍上涨，市场信心受到提振，随后 走出上涨行情。 大市方面，经过今天的上涨，上证指数距离12月8日的高点3936点非常近了。上方是9月-10月的上升趋 势线压力（现已转换为阻力）。 不过，从周期来看，11月14日到11月24日的调整时间为7个交易日，12月16日的低点至今为5个交易日。 也就是说，本轮大盘的反弹周期至少还有两个交易日。 由于是牛市中期震荡回落，在反弹周期内保持3-5成的仓位即可，直到反弹到位，或者有效突破9月-10 月的上升趋势线并确认升势延续。 板块方面，受光模块核心股大幅高开影响，今天以光模块核心股为代表的AI硬件方向（如通信设备、 元器件）、以中芯国际为代表的半导体板块、以紫金矿业为代表的有色板块集体上涨，带动市场反弹。 中信建投指出，目前世界正处于AI产业革命 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The LME cash - 3m spread rose significantly this week due to a large increase in cancelled warrants in Asia. Copper prices broke through $11,000 again. There is a structural supply - demand gap and uneven global inventory distribution. In China, there is expected to be a slight inventory build - up until the Spring Festival. The overall strategy is to buy on dips, with a price range of $10,800 - $12,000 in December [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overseas interest rate cut expectations are positive for the overall trend. The aluminum ingot inventory is flat, and the aluminum product inventory is decreasing. The end - of - year demand is good. The supply is expected to be loose in early 2026 and then tighten [2]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose this week. The supply of domestic zinc ore is expected to tighten from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. There are smelting overhauls in December, and the demand is seasonally weak. The price may not fall deeply, and it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities, and consider positive arbitrage opportunities for the 01 - 03 spread [7]. - **Nickel**: The supply of pure nickel decreased slightly, the demand is weak, and the inventory is increasing. With continuous disturbances in the Indonesian ore market, it is recommended to consider short - selling opportunities [8][9]. - **Stainless Steel**: The steel mill production is high, the demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the inventory is high. Considering the Indonesian policy, it is recommended to consider short - selling opportunities [12]. - **Lead**: Lead prices rebounded this week. The supply - demand mismatch has been alleviated, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 17,100 - 17,600 yuan/ton next week. Attention should be paid to the risk of low warehouse receipts [14]. - **Tin**: Tin prices rose this week. The short - term fundamentals are okay, with a high probability of high - level fluctuations. In the medium - to - long - term, it can be a long - position allocation in non - ferrous metals in the first half of 2026 [17]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The short - term supply and demand are balanced, and the price is expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price dropped this week. The short - term supply and demand are strong. The opening of upward elasticity in the future depends on inventory reduction, speculative demand, and stronger holding willingness [21]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Spread**: The LME cash - 3m spread increased, and copper prices broke through $11,000 [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: There is a structural supply - demand gap, and the global inventory is unevenly distributed. In China, the actual consumption has slowed down due to high prices [1]. - **Outlook**: Consider buying on dips, with a price range of $10,800 - $12,000 in December [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory**: The price decreased slightly, and the inventory remained unchanged [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: The end - of - year demand is good. The supply is expected to be loose in early 2026 and then tighten [2]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: Zinc prices rose, and the LME 0 - 3M spread decreased [7]. - **Supply**: The supply of domestic zinc ore is expected to tighten, and there are smelting overhauls in December [7]. - **Demand**: The domestic demand is seasonally weak, and the overseas demand varies [7]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see for unilateral trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities, and consider positive arbitrage opportunities for the 01 - 03 spread [7]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory**: The price decreased, and the inventory increased [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of pure nickel decreased slightly, and the demand is weak [8]. - **Strategy**: Consider short - selling opportunities [9]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory**: Some prices increased slightly, and the inventory remained high [12]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production is high, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs [12]. - **Strategy**: Consider short - selling opportunities [12]. Lead - **Price and Inventory**: Lead prices rebounded, and the inventory decreased [14]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply - demand mismatch has been alleviated, and the demand is expected to weaken [14]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 17,100 - 17,600 yuan/ton next week [14]. Tin - **Price and Inventory**: Tin prices rose, and the LME inventory increased [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: The short - term fundamentals are okay, and the long - term supply is expected to increase [17]. - **Strategy**: Short - term high - level fluctuations, medium - to - long - term long - position allocation in non - ferrous metals [17]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory**: The price fluctuated weakly, and the inventory increased [19]. - **Supply and Demand**: The short - term supply and demand are balanced, and the long - term supply is excessive [19]. - **Outlook**: Short - term price fluctuations, long - term bottom - cycle fluctuations [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory**: The price dropped, and the inventory increased [21]. - **Supply and Demand**: The short - term supply and demand are strong, and the future upward elasticity depends on inventory reduction [21].

Market Overview - The two markets experienced a significant net outflow of 27.057 billion yuan, with 1,604 stocks seeing net inflows and 3,014 stocks experiencing net outflows [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed down by 0.37% [1] Industry Performance - Six industries saw net inflows from large orders, with the retail trade sector leading at a net inflow of 1.274 billion yuan and an index increase of 0.36% [1] - The electronics sector followed with a net inflow of 0.623 billion yuan and an index increase of 0.78% [1] - A total of 25 industries experienced net outflows, with the non-ferrous metals sector seeing the largest outflow of 5.654 billion yuan [1] Individual Stock Performance - A total of 33 stocks had net inflows exceeding 200 million yuan, with Shenghong Technology leading at a net inflow of 1.743 billion yuan [2] - Industrial Fulian ranked second with a net inflow of 1.146 billion yuan [2] - The average increase for stocks with net inflows over 200 million yuan was 8.48%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [2] Top Stocks by Net Inflow - Shenghong Technology: 1.743 billion yuan, closing price 318.05 yuan, increase 10.81% [2] - Industrial Fulian: 1.146 billion yuan, closing price 67.99 yuan, increase 7.22% [2] - LeiKe Defense: 1.111 billion yuan, closing price 9.78 yuan, increase 10.01% [2] Top Stocks by Net Outflow - Industrial Securities: -0.911 billion yuan, closing price 7.24 yuan, decrease 5.97% [3] - Shunhao Co.: -0.819 billion yuan, closing price 13.20 yuan, increase 0.84% [3] - Sanhua Intelligent Control: -0.750 billion yuan, closing price 45.96 yuan, decrease 1.79% [3]