Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Since mid - August, the spot and futures prices of rebar have weakened again, and the futures price has dropped significantly. The market is under the influence of multiple negative factors, and under the pattern of weak supply and demand, the rebar price is under pressure, but the cost increase may limit the downside space. It is expected that the steel price will show a trend of bottom - seeking through oscillation, and the performance of peak - season demand should be focused on [2][4] Summary According to Related Content Price Performance - Since mid - August, the futures price of the rebar main contract has dropped from 3,274 yuan/ton to a minimum of 3,097 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decline of nearly 5.4%. The spot price in the East China mainstream area has dropped by 80 - 110 yuan/ton during the same period, and the basis has strengthened [2] Market Negative Factors - Market sentiment has changed, the "anti - involution" trading logic has cooled down, and the previously leading varieties have started high - level adjustments. The black industry chain is restricted by its weak fundamentals, and the overall upward momentum is insufficient. The near - month rebar contracts are suppressed by the delivery logic, and the long - position willingness to take delivery is low [2] Inventory Situation - As of the week of August 22, the total rebar inventory was 6.0704 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 198,500 tons, and it has accumulated for four consecutive weeks. The inventory sales ratio is 3.116, reaching a high in recent years. The inventory in some major consumption areas has accumulated rapidly and is higher than that of the same period last year [3] Production Status - The weekly output of rebar is 214,650 tons, which has declined for two consecutive weeks, with a cumulative decrease of 65,300 tons. The reduction mainly comes from long - process steel mills. Currently, long - process steel mills are in good profit condition, and short - process steel mills have not significantly reduced production. The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills is 75.69%, still at a high level this year [3] Demand Performance - As of the week of August 22, the weekly apparent demand for rebar was 194,800 tons, remaining at a low level in recent years. The cement outbound volume and concrete shipment volume are also at low levels, with year - on - year decreases of 16.5% and 7.8% respectively. The real - estate market is still in weak recovery, and the basis strengthening may lead to profit - taking, which will increase demand - side pressure [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The report anticipates that the price of manganese-silicon will continue its downward trend in a volatile manner, influenced by the cooling of optimistic sentiment in the commodity market and the adjustment of coking coal and coke prices. With the operating logic returning to the industrial side, the supply remains high while the demand has potential concerns, and the cost advantage is weakening. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [6]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Price Performance - Since mid-August, the futures and spot prices of manganese-silicon have weakened. The main futures price dropped from a high of 6,262 yuan/ton to around 5,800 yuan/ton, a cumulative decline of over 7%. The spot price also declined, with the basis strengthening [2]. Factors Affecting Price Decline - Market sentiment has shifted. The "anti-involution" trading logic has cooled down, and the leading varieties in the previous period have adjusted at high levels. The weak real - estate data and slowing infrastructure investment in July's domestic macro - data have exacerbated the shift in market sentiment. Additionally, the cost side has loosened, as the futures price of coke has fallen by over 9.7% since mid - August [3]. Supply Situation - The supply of manganese-silicon has increased significantly. As of the week ending August 15, the operating rate of 187 independent silicon-manganese enterprises was 45.75%, and the daily output was 29,580 tons, reaching a new high this year. The production in main producing areas is active, and the output in Ningxia and Yunnan has also reached new highs. However, producers are in a loss situation, which may limit the increase in future output [4]. Demand Situation - The demand for manganese-silicon is currently acceptable. Steel mills are actively replenishing stocks, and the production of steel mills is stable. As of the week ending August 15, the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills were 83.59% and 90.22% respectively, and the weekly demand for manganese-silicon was 125,400 tons, showing a four - week consecutive increase. However, the decline in finished product prices has squeezed the profits of short - process steel mills, which may drag down the demand for manganese-silicon [5].

Core Viewpoint - The manganese silicon market is experiencing a downward price trend due to a shift in market sentiment and increased supply pressure, despite stable demand from steel mills [2][3][5]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Price Trends - The current downward trend in manganese silicon prices is characterized by a strengthening basis, driven by a shift in market sentiment as previous leading commodities undergo high-level adjustments [2]. - Recent macroeconomic data indicates a continued weakness in the real estate market and a decline in infrastructure investment growth, further contributing to the change in market sentiment [2]. - The cost side has also loosened, with a significant drop in coke prices since mid-August, leading to a cumulative decline of over 9.7% in main contract prices, which has negatively impacted manganese silicon prices [2]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Manganese silicon supply has significantly increased, with production rates rising since May, reaching year-to-date highs [3]. - As of August 15, the operating rate of 187 independent silicon manganese enterprises was 45.75%, with an average daily output of 29,580 tons, marking increases of 12.15 percentage points and 6,330 tons from previous lows [3]. - Key production regions, such as Inner Mongolia, have shown high production enthusiasm, with daily output reaching 14,710 tons, while other regions like Ningxia and Yunnan have also reported significant production increases [3]. Group 3: Demand Conditions - Despite rising production, manganese silicon inventories have not accumulated, as steel mills have actively replenished stocks, with a notable increase in bidding volumes and prices from northern steel mills in August [4]. - The operating rates and capacity utilization of 247 sample steel mills were reported at 83.59% and 90.22%, respectively, indicating stable production levels [4]. - The profitability of steel mills remains strong, with a profit margin of 65.8%, supporting raw material demand; however, recent declines in steel prices may lead to reduced profits for short-process steel mills, which could negatively impact manganese silicon demand [4]. Group 4: Overall Market Outlook - The overall market for manganese silicon is characterized by a balance of increasing supply and stable demand, but underlying contradictions in the fundamentals are accumulating, with diminishing cost benefits [5]. - The expectation is for manganese silicon prices to continue a trend of weak downward movement, with a focus on monitoring steel mill production in the future [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the black sector has experienced a significant decline and is expected to see a rebound in the near future due to the "anti-involution" trading logic, which unfolds in three phases [1] - Currently, the market is in the second phase, where the initial high expectations have led to a price correction as there are no concrete measures to support supply-side contraction [1] - A recent meeting held by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments focused on the photovoltaic industry, discussing details related to the "anti-involution" measures, which may revitalize certain commodities like coking coal [1] Group 2 - The steel export resilience continues, and steel mills maintain profitability, indicating limited changes in the steel industry's fundamentals [1] - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September adds to the potential for a rebound in the black sector, with key insights expected from the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting scheduled for August 21-23 [1] - Overall, the black sector is considered undervalued and is anticipated to undergo a correction after the recent downturn [1]

Core Viewpoint - Iron ore prices have been steadily rising since August, with the 2601 contract increasing by 7.28% from its low, approaching previous highs. The spot price index for iron ore is reported at $103.30 per ton, with mainstream spot varieties at Qingdao Port showing increases between 14 to 39 yuan per ton [1] Group 1: Factors Supporting Price Increase - The recent rise in mineral prices is supported by two main factors: the ongoing "anti-involution" trading logic creating a warm atmosphere in the commodity market, particularly strong performance in the coking coal sector, and the implementation of strict production limits in Tangshan for rebar and rod mills [2] - Despite being in a traditional off-season, the overall decline in iron ore consumption is limited, with steel mills maintaining strong demand. As of the week ending August 8, the average daily pig iron output from 247 sample steel mills was 2.4032 million tons, and daily consumption of imported ore was 2.9814 million tons, both showing year-on-year increases [2][3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of iron ore is currently tight, with a weekly arrival volume of 25.716 million tons at 47 domestic ports, a decrease of 508,000 tons week-on-week. Global shipments also fell by 1.507 million tons [4] - Domestic mining production is weakening, with the capacity utilization rate of 126 mining enterprises at 62.06%, and daily output of iron concentrate at 391,600 tons, both at year-to-date lows. This situation is expected to continue, supporting higher iron ore prices [4] Group 3: Market Outlook - The overall market remains stable with resilient demand, providing continued support for iron ore prices. However, the relative high valuation of iron ore and the unsustainable nature of supply contraction may lead to a period of high-level consolidation in the future [4]

Report Information - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: August 8, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Core View - The Shanghai copper continued to fluctuate, with the main contract still running below the trend line. The spot price rose 150 to 78,500, and the premium rose 10 to 110. The spot import loss slightly widened to 167. The domestic social inventory increased by 1.27 million tons this week compared with last Thursday, and the LME inventory accumulation speed slowed down. The dollar index continued to fall, and the domestic anti - involution trading logic emerged again. It is expected that the copper price will fluctuate strongly [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The Shanghai copper continued to fluctuate, with the main contract below the trend line. The monthly spread and position changes on the disk were small. The spot price rose 150 to 78,500, and the premium rose 10 to 110. The spot import loss slightly widened to 167. Imported goods continued to flow into the domestic market to supplement the social inventory. The domestic social inventory increased by 1.27 million tons this week compared with last Thursday. After a large - scale inventory accumulation on Tuesday, the LME inventory accumulation speed slowed down, reducing the short - term pressure on copper prices. However, there are still expectations of inventory accumulation at home and abroad, and combined with the off - season of downstream demand, the short - term spot is still weak. With the continuous decline of the dollar index and the emergence of the domestic anti - involution trading logic, the copper price is expected to fluctuate strongly [10]. 2. Industry News - In July 2025, China imported 2.56 million physical tons of copper ore concentrates, a year - on - year increase of 18.24% and a month - on - month increase of 8.95%. From January to July, China's cumulative imports of copper ore concentrates were 17.314 million physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 8.04% [11]. - PT Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk announced the latest drilling results of its Tujuh Bukit copper project in East Java, Indonesia. A 248 - meter - long mineralized zone with a grade of 0.4 g/t gold and 0.3% copper was found in the GMD - 25 - 043 drill hole in the Gua Macan target area, further confirming the project's growth potential [11].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: August 1, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - The carbonate lithium futures continued to decline, hitting a low of 66,720. The spot price was relatively resistant to decline, with the electric carbon price dropping by 950 to 72,000. The spot price remained at a premium to the futures price. The downstream market was still cautious, and the actual trading volume did not increase significantly. The ore price followed the decline, and the production profit of salt factories using spodumene decreased, while the loss of those using mica increased. The supply was expected to remain high in the short term, and the fundamentals were not supportive of the price. The futures price mainly followed the market's trading of the anti - involution logic, and the downside space was expected to be limited due to the spot price being higher than the futures price [11] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Trend: The carbonate lithium futures continued to decline and closed with a long lower - shadow doji. The lowest price of the main contract reached 66,720 [11] - Spot Market: The electric carbon price dropped by 950 to 72,000, and the spot price was at a premium to the futures price. The downstream inquiry activity increased, but the actual trading volume did not increase proportionally, and the downstream mainly made rigid - demand purchases [11] - Ore Price: The Australian ore price dropped by 17.5 to 762.5 US dollars per ton, and the mica price dropped by 25 to 1,750 yuan per ton. The production profit of salt factories using spodumene decreased to 2,075, and the loss of those using mica expanded to 7,136 [11] - Supply Outlook: The production of carbonate lithium from spodumene was expected to increase further, while the production from mica needed to monitor the shutdown situation in Jiangxi. The supply was expected to remain high in the short term [11] Group 5: Industry News - Ningde Times: In Q2 2025, its combined sales of power and energy storage batteries were close to 150 GWh, a year - on - year increase of over 30%. The energy storage accounted for about 20%. It had over 10 years of R & D experience in solid - state batteries and had an industry - leading R & D team. The scientific problems in the solid - state battery industry were basically solved, but commercialization was still some way off [14] - South Korean Electronics Company and Tesla: A South Korean electronics company reached a 4.3 - billion - dollar supply agreement with Tesla to supply LFP energy storage batteries from 2027 for a three - year period with an option to extend to seven years. The batteries will be produced in a Michigan factory, helping Tesla reduce its dependence on Chinese - imported batteries. The South Korean company planned to increase its North American energy storage battery production capacity to 30 GWh by 2026 [14][15]