Core Insights - Consumer spending in the U.S. saw its largest decline since the beginning of the year in May, indicating increasing uncertainty regarding the economic policies of the Trump administration and its impact on growth prospects [1] - Inflation remains moderate for now, but many economists predict an increase in the coming months as businesses pass on higher import tariffs to households [1] Economic Impact - The decline in consumer spending suggests potential challenges for economic growth, as consumer expenditure is a key driver of the economy [1] - The anticipated rise in inflation could further complicate the economic landscape, affecting purchasing power and consumer behavior [1]

Group 1 - The core PCE price index, a key inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve, is set to be released, with expectations for a month-over-month increase of 0.1% for both core and overall PCE indices, maintaining the same level as April [1] - Year-over-year, the core PCE price index is expected to rise to 2.6% in May, up from 2.5% in April, while the overall PCE index is projected to increase to 2.3%, compared to 2.1% in April [1] - The upcoming data will also provide insights into consumer spending and income growth, with personal spending expected to grow by 0.2% month-over-month and personal income by 0.3%, a slowdown from April's 0.8% [1] Group 2 - Citi analysts predict that used car prices will remain volatile in the coming months, with the Manheim used car price index rising by 1.7% in early June after a 1.4% decline in May [2] - The Manheim index, reflecting wholesale prices, may indicate an overall upward trend in car prices, as rising new car prices could drive consumers to the used car market [2] - Evercore ISI analysts noted that the core PCE deflator increased by 0.15% in May, with tariffs expected to impact prices in the future but not currently affecting them [2]

Core Viewpoint - The primary issue regarding consumer spending in Japan is inflation, which necessitates wage growth to combat it [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan's policy board member, Naoki Tamura, emphasizes the importance of addressing inflation for consumer spending [1] - Wage growth is identified as a critical factor needed to counteract the effects of inflation on consumers [1]

惠誉：由于关税减缓2025年下半年经济增长，美国消费者支出将走弱。 ...

美国5月份零售额录得大幅下滑 金十数据6月17日讯，美国5月零售销售降幅超出预期，主要受汽车销量下滑拖累。此前因担忧关税引发 的抢购潮已退去，消费者抢购热情减弱。但消费者支出仍受到薪资稳健增长的支撑。周二公布的数据显 示，继4月份零售额下降0.1%后，上月零售额下降0.9%。万神殿宏观经济首席美国经济学家Samuel Tombs表示，"过去的经验表明，最大的价格涨幅将出现在7月份，尽管关税的全面影响可能会在今年余 下的时间里显现出来，这将对实际收入的增长造成压力，同时，劳动力市场的疲软将使人们对可自由支 配的支出持谨慎态度。与此同时，家庭不再有'过剩储蓄'，也不再有强劲的股价上涨来刺激他们消 费。" ...

Chief Executive Group最新发布的数据表明，美国企业界领导人的看法正在发生转变，因为他们正在密 切关注特朗普关税政策的不断变化。许多大型企业并未改变其盈利预期，他们指出，对于总统最终的贸 易政策会包含哪些内容以及不会包含哪些内容，目前仍存在不确定性。 特朗普在 4 月份公布了一项针对众多国家和地区实施大规模且高额征税的计划，此举导致美国金融市场 大幅波动。市场参与者担心这会抑制消费者支出。不过，他随后暂停了其中许多征税措施，这使得市场 得以部分挽回损失。在这一暂缓措施即将于下月初到期之际，白宫一直在与各国进行谈判。例如，特朗 普政府已与英国达成协议。 智通财经APP获悉，周一公布的数据表明，美国商界领袖对美国经济衰退的预期有所减弱，此前在特朗 普宣布加征关税后，这种预期曾一度飙升。根据Chief Executive Group上周对超过 270 位首席执行官 (CEO)进行的调查，不到 30% 的CEO预计未来六个月会出现轻度或重度经济衰退。这一比例低于 5 月 份的 46% 和 4 月份的 62%。 本月接受调查的CEO中，预计美国经济将出现一定程度增长的比例也飙升至 40% 以上，这一比 ...

沃尔玛百货(WMT.N)CFO：消费者支出基本保持稳定。 ...

智通财经6月7日电，沃尔玛首席财务官表示，消费者支出基本保持稳定。 ...

Group 1 - The president of the employment data company "Challenger" highlighted that tariffs, funding cuts, consumer spending, and economic pessimism are putting significant pressure on the labor market [1]

加拿大央行行长麦克勒姆：消费者支出放缓但仍在增长。 ...