Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a concerning trend in the U.S. economy, indicating that personal income and spending have declined, suggesting a potential technical recession [1] Economic Indicators - Personal income was expected to grow by approximately 0.3%, but instead, it has shown negative growth [1] - Personal spending figures are also disappointing, reflecting a negative growth trend [1] Economic Outlook - The decline in personal income and spending raises the likelihood of an economic slowdown in the second quarter, potentially leading to negative economic activity [1] - Aside from the core PCE data being slightly above expectations, there were no other surprises in inflation, indicating a broader economic weakness [1] - Overall signs point to a weakening economy, with the possibility that it has already entered a technical recession [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a decline in personal income and disposable personal income in May, primarily due to a significant drop in social security payments, while private sector wages and salary income showed a modest increase [1] Group 1: Personal Income Trends - Personal income decreased by 0.4% in May [1] - Disposable personal income fell by 0.5% during the same period [1] - The decline in personal income is mainly attributed to a sharp drop in social security payments [1] Group 2: Private Sector Wages - Wages and salary income for private sector workers increased by 0.4% [1]

美国5月份个人消费支出环比下降0.1%，预估为0.1%。美国5月份个人收入环比下降0.4%，预估为 0.3%。 ...

Group 1 - The core PCE price index, a key inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve, is set to be released, with expectations for a month-over-month increase of 0.1% for both core and overall PCE indices, maintaining the same level as April [1] - Year-over-year, the core PCE price index is expected to rise to 2.6% in May, up from 2.5% in April, while the overall PCE index is projected to increase to 2.3%, compared to 2.1% in April [1] - The upcoming data will also provide insights into consumer spending and income growth, with personal spending expected to grow by 0.2% month-over-month and personal income by 0.3%, a slowdown from April's 0.8% [1] Group 2 - Citi analysts predict that used car prices will remain volatile in the coming months, with the Manheim used car price index rising by 1.7% in early June after a 1.4% decline in May [2] - The Manheim index, reflecting wholesale prices, may indicate an overall upward trend in car prices, as rising new car prices could drive consumers to the used car market [2] - Evercore ISI analysts noted that the core PCE deflator increased by 0.15% in May, with tariffs expected to impact prices in the future but not currently affecting them [2]

Core Insights - In April 2025, personal income in the U.S. increased by $210.1 billion, representing a month-over-month growth of 0.8% [1][4] - Disposable personal income (DPI) also rose by $189.4 billion, reflecting a 0.8% increase, while personal consumption expenditures (PCE) saw a smaller increase of $47.8 billion, or 0.2% [1][4] - The total personal expenditures, which include PCE, personal interest payments, and current transfer payments, increased by $48.6 billion in April [1] Personal Savings and Rates - Personal savings in April amounted to $1.12 trillion, with a personal savings rate of 4.9%, indicating the percentage of DPI that is saved [3] - The increase in personal income was primarily driven by government social welfare and wage increases [3][7] Consumer Spending Trends - Service expenditures rose by $55.8 billion, partially offsetting a $8 billion decrease in goods spending [3] - The PCE price index increased by 0.1% in April, with the core PCE price index also rising by 0.1% [7] - Year-over-year, the PCE price index increased by 2.1%, while the core PCE price index rose by 2.5% [7] Economic Outlook - Economists suggest that aggressive trade policies by the U.S. government may significantly hinder economic growth and elevate inflation [7] - Market participants anticipate that the Federal Reserve will lower the target interest rate for short-term borrowing in September, with another potential cut in December [7]

Core Insights - In April, personal consumption expenditures in the U.S. increased by 0.2%, matching the forecast of 0.2% [1] - Personal income in April rose by 0.8%, surpassing the expected increase of 0.3% [1]