Group 1 - The core inflation measure favored by the Federal Reserve, which was delayed due to the government shutdown, shows a moderate increase in consumer prices for October and November, with month-on-month increases of 0.2% and year-on-year increases of 2.7% in October and 2.8% in November [2][6] - Despite a significant drop from the peak levels post-pandemic, inflation continues to affect American households, with a rebound in goods inflation observed after tariffs were imposed by the Trump administration in spring [2][6] - The upcoming data will provide more decision-making basis for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting, with expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged in the short term due to stable economic growth and low unemployment [2][6] Group 2 - The chief economist at KPMG noted that wealthy households are driving economic growth, masking the struggles expressed by many in consumer confidence surveys [3][7] - Personal income in the U.S. increased by $80 billion in November, showing a stable month-on-month growth of 0.3%, but real disposable income adjusted for inflation decreased by 0.1% in October and slightly rebounded by 0.1% in November, indicating ongoing price pressures on households [3][7][8] - The inflation rate in the U.S. has remained above the Federal Reserve's target of 2% since 2021, and as long as inflation stays close to 3%, some Federal Reserve officials may be cautious about rate cuts [8] Group 3 - The labor market data indicates that while the unemployment rate remains low at 4.4%, the number of net new jobs has significantly declined, affecting recent graduates and long-term unemployed individuals [4][8] - Initial claims for unemployment benefits have remained low and stable, suggesting that layoffs in American companies are currently at a moderate level [4][8]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the economic indicators for the United States in November, including personal income, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), and PCE price indices, which align with market expectations [1] Group 2 - In November, personal income increased by 0.3%, slightly below the expected 0.4% [1] - Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose by 0.5%, matching the market expectation [1] - The year-on-year PCE price index stood at 2.8%, in line with expectations [1] - The month-on-month PCE price index increased by 0.2%, consistent with forecasts [1] - The core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy, also rose by 0.2%, meeting expectations [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the economic indicators for the United States in September, including personal income, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), and core PCE inflation rates [1] Group 2 - In September, personal income in the U.S. increased by 0.4% month-on-month, surpassing the expected 0.3% and matching the previous month's value [1] - The actual personal consumption expenditures (PCE) in September showed no change (0%) month-on-month, falling short of the expected increase of 0.1% and significantly lower than the previous month's increase of 0.4% [1] - The core PCE price index for September rose by 0.2% month-on-month, aligning with expectations and the previous month's figure [1] - Year-on-year, the core PCE price index stood at 2.83%, slightly above the expected 2.8% and down from the previous 2.9% [1] - The overall PCE price index increased by 0.3% month-on-month, meeting expectations and remaining consistent with the previous month's increase [1] - Year-on-year, the PCE price index was reported at 2.8%, matching expectations and showing an increase from the previous 2.7% [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a weekly hot - spot preview from December 1 - 7, 2025, including the expected data of various economic indicators and their potential impacts on the futures market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog This Week's Key Focus - On December 1 at 09:45, Markit will release China's November SPGI manufacturing PMI [2]. - On December 4 at 21:30, the US Department of Labor will announce the initial jobless claims for the week ending November 29 [2]. - On December 5 at 23:00, the US Department of Commerce will release the US September PCE price index [2]. - On December 7 at 16:00, the People's Bank of China will announce November foreign exchange reserves and gold reserves [2]. This Week's Hot - Spot Preview December 1 - China's November SPGI manufacturing PMI: Expected to be 51.1 (previous 50.9). A slight increase may help industrial and stock index futures rise and suppress treasury bond futures [2]. - US November ISM manufacturing PMI: Expected to be 48.5 (previous 48.7). A slight decrease may suppress non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related futures, but help gold and silver futures [3]. December 2 - Eurozone November CPI initial value: Expected harmonized CPI annual rate - unadjusted initial value is 2.1% (same as previous) [4]. - Eurozone October unemployment rate: Expected to be 6.3% (same as previous) [7]. December 3 - China's November SPGI services PMI and composite PMI: Expected services PMI is 51.9 (previous 52.6), composite PMI is 51.5 (previous 51.8). A slight decrease may suppress stock index and commodity futures, but help treasury bond futures [8]. - US November ADP employment change: Expected new employment is 55,000 (previous 42,000). An increase may help non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related commodity futures, but suppress gold and silver futures [9]. - US September industrial production monthly rate: Expected to be 0 (previous 0.1%) [10]. - US November ISM non - manufacturing PMI: Expected to be 53.5 (previous 52.4). A slight increase may suppress gold and silver futures [11]. - US EIA crude oil inventory change for the week ending November 28: A continued increase may suppress crude oil and related commodity futures [12]. December 4 - November下旬 prices of important production materials in the circulation field: The National Bureau of Statistics will release prices of 9 categories and 50 products [13]. - Eurozone October retail sales: Previous monthly rate was - 0.1%, annual rate was 1.0% [14]. - US initial jobless claims for the week ending November 29: Expected to be 212,000 (previous 216,000). A slight decrease may suppress gold and silver futures and help other industrial futures [15]. December 5 - US September factory orders monthly rate: Previous was 1.4% [16]. - US September PCE price index: Expected annual rate is 2.7% (same as previous), core annual rate is 2.9% (same as previous), core monthly rate is 0.3% (previous 0.2%). Specific changes may strengthen the market's expectation of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in December [17]. - US September personal expenditure monthly rate: Expected to be 0.4% (previous 0.6%) [18]. - US September personal income monthly rate: Expected to be 0.4% (same as previous) [19]. - US December University of Michigan consumer confidence index initial value: Expected to be 52 (previous 51). An increase may help non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related commodity futures, but suppress gold and silver futures [20]. December 7 - China's November foreign exchange reserves: Previous was $3343 billion, gold reserves were 74.09 million ounces [21].

Core Insights - The U.S. Department of Commerce will release data on personal income, spending, and the PCE index on November 26 at 10 AM (Beijing time: 11 PM) [1] Group 1 - The upcoming release will provide insights into consumer behavior and economic health in the U.S. [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. Department of Commerce is set to release data on personal income, spending, and the PCE index on November 26 at 10 AM EST [1] Summary by Category - **Economic Indicators** - The upcoming report will provide insights into personal income and spending trends, which are critical for assessing consumer behavior and economic health [1] - The PCE index is a key measure of inflation, and its release will be closely monitored by analysts and investors [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. consumer demonstrated resilience in August, with increases in both earnings and savings rates [1][2] Economic Indicators - Personal income rose by $95.7 billion, or 0.4% from the previous month, aligning with analyst expectations [2] - Disposable personal income also increased by 0.4%, indicating stable consumer financial health [2] - Personal saving reached $1.06 trillion in August, with a personal saving rate of 4.6%, up from 4.4% in the previous month [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a concerning trend in the U.S. economy, indicating that personal income and spending have declined, suggesting a potential technical recession [1] Economic Indicators - Personal income was expected to grow by approximately 0.3%, but instead, it has shown negative growth [1] - Personal spending figures are also disappointing, reflecting a negative growth trend [1] Economic Outlook - The decline in personal income and spending raises the likelihood of an economic slowdown in the second quarter, potentially leading to negative economic activity [1] - Aside from the core PCE data being slightly above expectations, there were no other surprises in inflation, indicating a broader economic weakness [1] - Overall signs point to a weakening economy, with the possibility that it has already entered a technical recession [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a decline in personal income and disposable personal income in May, primarily due to a significant drop in social security payments, while private sector wages and salary income showed a modest increase [1] Group 1: Personal Income Trends - Personal income decreased by 0.4% in May [1] - Disposable personal income fell by 0.5% during the same period [1] - The decline in personal income is mainly attributed to a sharp drop in social security payments [1] Group 2: Private Sector Wages - Wages and salary income for private sector workers increased by 0.4% [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that personal consumption expenditures in the US decreased by 0.1% in May, which was below the forecast of a 0.1% increase [1] - Additionally, personal income in the US fell by 0.4% in May, compared to the expected decline of 0.3% [1]