Group 1 - Trump has shifted his stance on the Russia-Ukraine issue, indicating readiness to impose tariffs if Russia is unwilling to reach an agreement, and asserting that NATO countries should shoot down Russian planes entering NATO airspace [1] - The European Commission has implemented the 19th round of sanctions against Russia, which includes banning the import of Russian liquefied natural gas and expanding sanctions to third-country refineries and oil traders [1] - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4%-4.25%, with officials indicating that future policy adjustments will be data-driven and flexible [1][2] Group 2 - Gold prices have surged, reaching a new high of $3,790.9 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 40%, while silver has also seen significant gains, rising over 50% [4] - The recent bullish trend in gold has seen prices rise nearly $450 from a low of $3,311, with potential targets for further increases set between $3,850 and $3,880 based on historical price movements [5] - The gold market is currently experiencing strong upward momentum, but caution is advised as it approaches resistance levels, with potential for a pullback [7][9]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates by a quarter point aligns with expectations, paving the way for potential further declines in Q4 2025 [1] - Despite a dovish signal from the Fed, the US dollar has strengthened, indicating a market correction as traders take profits [2] - The market anticipates three interest rate cuts in 2025, but current GDP growth data does not suggest an imminent recession [3] Interest Rates and Economic Indicators - The 10-2 year bond yield spread remains positive, indicating a balanced economic situation, while the US manufacturing PMI has been below 50 since February, signaling weakness [4] - The potential for inflation to rise could stabilize interest rates, with three rate cuts already priced in for 2025 [5] - The upcoming PCE index publication on September 25th is crucial for assessing inflation trends [6] Currency and Market Trends - The decline in US interest rates may lead to speculation around the US dollar, with stronger-than-expected inflation data potentially boosting EUR/USD and other dollar-related pairs [7] - A rotation from tech stocks to the industrial sector is observed, with the Dow Jones poised for a potential breakout above $48,000 [8]

Market Overview - International gold prices experienced fluctuations and closed lower on September 18, with an opening price of $3684.11 per ounce, a high of $3704.51, a low of $3627.92, and a closing price of $3641.27 [1] Economic Data - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending September 13 was reported at 231,000, lower than the market expectation of 240,000 and down from the previous week's 263,000 [2] - This marks the largest decline in initial claims in nearly four years, indicating that companies are still inclined to retain employees despite economic uncertainties [2] - However, signs of labor market weakness are emerging, with a significant slowdown in job growth and a cooling in both labor supply and demand [2] Technical Analysis - Gold prices showed a downward trend, with the lowest point reaching $3627 during the trading session, followed by a slight recovery to close at $3643 [8] - The daily chart indicates a small bearish candle, suggesting a potential top formation, while the short-term indicators are showing a downward trend [8] - The hourly chart reflects a bearish sentiment, with prices stabilizing below key moving averages, indicating a cautious trading approach [8] Trading Strategy - For aggressive traders, a buy position can be initiated at $2627 with a stop loss of 3-5 points and a profit target above $3640 [9] - For conservative traders, a buy position can be initiated at $3612 with similar stop loss and profit target parameters [10] - For short positions, aggressive entry can be at $3658 with a stop loss of 3-5 points and a target below $3647, while a more conservative entry can be at $3668 with a target below $3655 [10]

Core Viewpoint - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in October is 8.1%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 91.9% [1] Summary by Category - **Interest Rate Outlook** - The likelihood of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in October stands at 8.1% [1] - There is a significant 91.9% chance of a 25 basis point reduction in interest rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market reaction to the Federal Reserve's interest-rate cuts is characterized by volatility, indicating uncertainty among investors regarding the central bank's messaging [1] Market Reaction - Investors appeared confused about the implications of the Federal Reserve's recent interest-rate cuts, leading to significant market volatility [1]

分组1 - The Federal Reserve is experiencing a significant disagreement among its members regarding the future outlook, with seven members favoring either one more cut or no cuts, while nine members support two additional cuts [2][5][7] - The current economic environment presents a two-sided risk, complicating the decision-making process for policymakers, as typically weak labor markets coincide with low inflation and strong labor markets raise inflation concerns [4][7] - The Fed Chair indicated that future decisions will be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis, emphasizing the need to assess incoming data before making further cuts [3][6][7] 分组2 - The futures market appears to be pricing in two additional rate cuts, reflecting investor sentiment about the Fed's future actions [5][6] - There is a level of uncertainty reintroduced into the market, as the Fed Chair acknowledged the lack of clear paths forward, which may affect investor confidence [7][11] - The Fed is facing unprecedented challenges on both sides of its mandate, indicating a complex economic landscape that requires careful navigation [9][10][11]

Group 1 - Gold has recently reached approximately $3,700 per ounce, driven by safe-haven demand, central bank purchases, and anticipation of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [2] - Analysts are forecasting potential targets of $4,000 and even $5,000 for gold prices [2] - Historical trends indicate that gold is not immune to sharp downturns, raising concerns about a potential market crash [2][8] Group 2 - Historical instances of gold crashes include significant declines after peaks, such as a drop of nearly 65% from $850 in 1980 to below $300 by 1985 [3] - Another example is the decline of over 35% from nearly $1,920 in 2011 to approximately $1,200 by late 2013 [4] - During the pandemic, gold peaked at $2,070 in August 2020 but fell back below $1,700 by early 2021, representing an 18% drop [5] Group 3 - Current gold prices have incorporated an ideal scenario, but signs of potential trouble include a "hawkish cut" from the Fed, a stronger dollar, speculative overheating, and a potential pause in central bank purchases [7][9] - A 20-25% correction could bring gold prices down to $2,800-$3,000 per ounce, while a more severe 35-40% crash could test levels around $2,200-$2,400 per ounce [9]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley outlines three tail risks for the Federal Reserve's September interest rate decision, emphasizing the uncertainty surrounding the potential outcomes and their implications for the market [2][3]. Interest Rate Predictions - **Rate Hike (1%)**: The first tail risk has a near-zero probability but is not entirely ruled out. A continuous rise in core CPI over three months may lead the Fed to remain cautious, although it is not expected to pose a real threat, especially if tariff attitudes soften [2]. - **Maintain Rate (4%)**: The likelihood of maintaining the current rate is low, with Powell's comments at Jackson Hole suggesting that keeping rates unchanged could have a counterproductive effect. The key factor is whether Powell leans hawkish or dovish [3]. - **Hawkish Rate Cut of 25 Basis Points (40%)**: If the Fed perceives inflation as temporary and the labor market does not pose immediate risks to the economy, there may be room for a gradual 25 basis point cut, which could erase some of the previous gains in the stock market [3]. - **Dovish Rate Cut of 25 Basis Points (47.5%)**: This scenario suggests a more significant likelihood of a 25 basis point cut if inflation remains controlled and non-farm payrolls show weakness. Market interpretation of this move could introduce new uncertainties [3]. - **Rate Cut of 50 Basis Points (7.5%)**: This extreme scenario could lead to a sell-off in the stock market if the Fed is perceived as needing to catch up with deteriorating employment conditions, particularly if non-farm payrolls turn negative [3].

Core Insights - The bond market is anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut from the Fed, with potential dissent among Fed voters regarding the extent of cuts [1][2] - The market is focused on the Fed's summary of economic projections, particularly the dot plot indicating future policy rates, with expectations of three cuts this year [2][3] - There is a concern that the market's expectation of the Fed rate dropping below 3% next year may not materialize, which could lead to disappointment [3] Economic Conditions - The economy is described as having two speeds, with high-income consumers continuing to spend, contributing to inflationary pressures, while small businesses struggle with high interest rates [8][9] - Core inflation, excluding shelter, increased by 2.7% last month, the highest in two years, indicating that high-income consumers are faring well [9] - The Fed faces challenges in balancing support for small businesses through rate cuts while managing the potential for increased wealth effects and stickier inflation [10] Market Expectations - The bond market is pricing in significant rate cuts, with expectations that the Fed will act aggressively to prolong economic expansion [11][12] - There is a notion of a "Goldilocks" environment where growth is slowing, but aggressive Fed actions could sustain the economic cycle [12] - Inflation-linked bonds are suggested as a viable investment option, especially if inflation begins to rise, as the market is already pricing in a return to the Fed's 2% target [13][14] Tariff Impact - Tariff policies are believed to significantly affect fixed income markets, with evidence of inflationary impacts from tariffs not being fully recognized [15] - Core goods have shown a month-over-month increase, indicating that inflationary pressures are emerging, which could lead to stagflationary conditions [15]

Economic Overview - US stocks paused as Wall Street assessed the economy ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased over 0.1%, while the S&P 500 fell below the flat line, and the Nasdaq Composite increased by 0.1% [1] Labor Market Insights - Recent jobs data indicated labor market weakness, with just over 20,000 jobs added last month and weekly initial jobless claims reaching a near four-year high [2] Inflation and Consumer Sentiment - Inflation remains persistent, with consumer prices rising, influenced by President Trump's tariffs [3] - Despite inflation concerns, investors anticipate the Fed will cut rates, with a more than 90% chance of a quarter-point cut in the upcoming meeting [4] - Consumer sentiment is expected to show steady spending, but Americans are becoming increasingly dissatisfied with their purchasing power and the job market [4] Stock Market Performance - All three major stock indexes are on track for weekly gains exceeding 1.4%, with the Dow aiming for its first win in three weeks after surpassing 46,000 for the first time [5]