智通财经APP获悉，周五，三大指数上涨，今日公布的美国5月非农就业数据超预期。数据公布后，美 国总统特朗普表示，美联储主席鲍威尔应当降息，应将利率下调整整一个百分点。本周道指累计上涨 1.17%，标普500指数上涨1.5%，纳指上涨2.18%。 【美股】截至收盘，道指涨443.13点，涨幅为1.05%，报42762.87点；纳指涨231.50点，涨幅为1.20%， 报19529.95点；标普500指数涨61.06点，涨幅为1.03%，报6000.36点。特斯拉(TSLA.US)收涨3.67%，股 价收于300美元下方。美国总统特朗普在美股收盘后表示，他没有任何与马斯克交谈的计划，将"审 视"马斯克的政府合同。 【欧股】欧洲市场上涨，美国就业数据好于预期缓解了对经济增长的担忧，推动欧洲基准股指升至逾两 周高点。斯托克欧洲600指数收盘上涨0.3%，为连续第四个交易日上涨。该指数升至5月21日以来的最 高水平。 【外汇】衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天上涨0.45%，在汇市尾市收于99.190。截至纽约汇市 尾市，1欧元兑换1.1397美元，低于前一交易日的1.1442美元；1英镑兑换1.3530美元，低于前 ...

Group 1 - The international gold price has retreated from a historical high of $3,500 per ounce, and experts predict three potential scenarios for future price movements: stability, decline, or increase [1][3] - A critical date to watch is June 17, when the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will be announced, with a low probability of rate adjustment (5.6%) according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool, suggesting a likely stable gold price [3] - If the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, it could lead to a decrease in gold prices due to reduced attractiveness of non-yielding assets like gold [5] Group 2 - Conversely, if the Federal Reserve announces a rate cut amid weak economic data and ongoing trade tensions, gold prices may experience a new upward trend [7] - A weaker US dollar could stimulate demand for gold, with the potential for prices to reach new highs [8] - Key factors to monitor include the Federal Reserve's statements regarding US inflation and employment, as well as the status of the US dollar index and treasury yields, which are closely linked to the gold market [8]

行情回顾： 国际黄金周五（5月16日）震荡收跌，开盘价3219.78美元/盎司，最高价3252.11美元/盎司，最低价3154.20美元/ 盎司，收盘价3183.50美元/盎司。 消息面： 特朗普表示，印度已提出削减对美国商品的所有关税，但他淡化了与世界第四大经济体达成贸易协议的紧迫 感。特朗普在接受采访时，把印度当作要削减壁垒的例子。"他们让人几乎无法做生意。你知道他们愿意为美 国削减100%的关税吗？"特朗普说。但在达成协议的可能性上，特朗普发出了不同的信号，他说："很快就会 达成。我不着急。听着，每个人都想和我们做交易。"他补充说，他不打算"与所有人达成协议"。特朗普此番 言论表明，美国只会就许多国家将面临的关税做出单方面决定。星期五早些时候，特朗普表示，他计划在"未 来两到三周内"为贸易伙伴设定新的进口税率。 美国财政部长贝森特周日表示，若各国在 90 天关税暂停期内未达成贸易协议，关税税率将很快恢复至 "对等" 水平。"特朗普总统已警告他们，若不以诚意谈判，关税将回升至 4 月 2 日的水平。" 贝森特在 节目中称。贝 森特透露，美国正重点与 18 个 "重要" 贸易伙伴敲定协议，但未说明关税恢复 ...

Core Insights - Domestic precious metal futures experienced an overall increase, with Shanghai gold and silver prices rising by 0.88% and 0.61% respectively, while international precious metals saw a decline, with COMEX gold and silver dropping by 0.90% and 0.98% respectively [1][2] Price Movements - As of May 16, 2025, the main contracts for precious metals showed the following prices: - Shanghai Gold: Opened at 747.80 CNY/gram, peaked at 759.20 CNY/gram, and hit a low of 746.44 CNY/gram [2] - Shanghai Silver: Opened at 8054.00 CNY/kg, peaked at 8165.00 CNY/kg, and hit a low of 8052.00 CNY/kg [2] - COMEX Gold: Opened at 3243.50 USD/ounce, peaked at 3255.80 USD/ounce, and hit a low of 3209.20 USD/ounce [2] - COMEX Silver: Opened at 32.80 USD/ounce, peaked at 32.87 USD/ounce, and hit a low of 32.45 USD/ounce [2] Market Sentiment - Tanglewood Total Wealth Management's macro investment strategist indicated that the Trump administration appears to be leaning towards weakening the dollar to enhance the competitiveness of U.S. manufacturing, which could potentially benefit gold prices [3] - The dollar weakened during trading, with reports suggesting discussions between the U.S. and South Korea regarding monetary policy, hinting at a potential softening of the dollar [3] - U.S. Treasury Secretary attempted to reassure market participants that the U.S. is not seeking a weaker dollar, while trade representatives are not planning to include currency commitments in future trade agreements [3] Market Analysis - On May 15, COMEX gold prices rose by 1.74% to 3243.90 USD/ounce, with the latest CME "FedWatch" data indicating a 91.7% probability of maintaining interest rates in June, and an 8.3% chance of a 25 basis point cut [4] - The probabilities for maintaining rates in July stand at 63.2%, with cumulative probabilities for a 25 basis point cut at 34.2% and a 50 basis point cut at 2.6% [4]

Group 1 - The main point of the article highlights the fluctuations in precious metal prices, particularly silver and gold, influenced by macroeconomic factors such as U.S. inflation and retail sales data [2][3] - Silver futures in Shanghai reported a price of 8110 yuan per gram, with a daily increase of 0.72%, and trading ranged from a low of 8052 yuan to a high of 8165 yuan [1] - International gold prices rose by 1.99% to 3239.66 USD per ounce, while silver increased by 1.26% to 32.616 USD per ounce, indicating a recovery after initial declines [2] Group 2 - The U.S. April PPI year-on-year was reported at 2.4%, below expectations, contributing to the volatility in precious metals [2] - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in June is at 91.7%, with a small chance of a 25 basis point cut, reflecting market expectations for potential rate cuts later in the year [2] - The ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions are causing uncertainty in the market, leading to a cautious outlook on silver futures, with industrial demand being a key factor to monitor [3]

隔夜美联储结束了为期两天的利率会议，如市场预期的按兵不动，联邦基金利率仍维持在4.25%-4.50% 区间。迄今为止，美联储已在连续三次会议上维持利率不变。 美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表态略偏鹰派，他表示，美联储不必急于调整利率，目前的政策是适 度限制的。值得一提的是，鲍威尔还表示，总统特朗普对降息的呼声"根本不会影响"美联储的工作，美 联储从未主动要求与任何总统会面，并且将来也不会。 受上述消息影响，市场对降息的预期微有弱化，目前市场的最新观点是，美联储最早将于今年7月才有 可能下调利率。 继周三冲高回落后，周四A股各大股指以涨为主。截至收盘，上证综指涨0.28%至3352.00点；深综指涨 1.03%，创业板综指涨1.48%，科创50指数跌0.36%，北证50指数涨0.98%。全A总成交额为13218亿元， 较周三的15051亿元明显萎缩。 由个股看，前一天表现强劲的航空航天等军工股继续领涨。军工类股票异常强劲应部分与近期地缘局势 趋向紧张相关，比如南亚局势，这使投资者对国防工业的重要性有了更新的认识。 除军工股涨势喜人外，通信设备、交运设备、通用设备、光伏设备、电机、橡胶制品板块涨幅也相对领 先。下 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the third consecutive meeting without a rate change in 2023 [1] - The Fed will continue its plan to passively reduce its holdings of Treasury securities by up to $50 billion per month and maintain the $35 billion in agency bonds [1] - Following the announcement, U.S. stock indices and the dollar index initially fell but later experienced slight increases, while gold prices decreased [1] Group 2 - The Fed acknowledged an increased risk of rising unemployment and inflation in its latest meeting statement, indicating greater uncertainty regarding the U.S. economic outlook [2] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted that high unemployment and inflation risks have risen, although they have not yet appeared in the data [2] - The committee remains committed to supporting maximum employment and aims to restore inflation to a target level of 2% [2] Group 3 - Market expectations prior to the meeting indicated a high probability that the Fed would maintain its current stance, with a focus on potential rate cuts in response to tariff uncertainties [3] - Powell reiterated that the Fed does not feel pressured to cut rates but is prepared to act swiftly when appropriate, emphasizing a wait-and-see approach [4] - Analysts suggest that the Fed is likely to pause rate cuts in June, with the first potential cut expected in July, as the impact of tariffs has not yet been fully reflected in the data [5][6]

国际黄金周三（5月7日）日K收跌，美市尾盘，国际黄金收报3364.67美元/盎司，下跌66.87美元或 1.95%，日内最高上探3437.49美元/盎司，最低触及3359.78美元/盎司。 周三，美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)将利率维持在4.25%-4.50%不变，理由是经济前景的不确定性日 益增加，就业最大化和物价稳定的风险都在上升。 FOMC在会后声明中表示："经济展望的不确定性进一步增加。委员会关注双重职责所面临的双边风 险，并认为失业率上升和通胀上升的风险正在增加。" 美联储主席鲍威尔保持中立的基调，表示目前的政策立场是适当的，美联储并不急于调整利率。他强 调，如果情况发生变化，美联储准备"酌情迅速"采取行动，但他警告称，如果关税仍然存在，美联储的 目标就无法完全实现。 鲍威尔补充说，如果双重使命的任何一方偏离轨道太远，美联储将评估使用哪种政策工具来实现再平 衡。 当被问及通胀和就业哪个任务需要更多的关注时，他回答说现在说还为时过早。 【上一交易日黄金行情解析】 美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)数据显示，截至5月7日，黄金ETF持有量为937.67吨，较上一交易日减 持0.29吨。 黄金ETF最 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔表示，潜在通胀形势良好，美联储不需要急于调整利率，等待的成本相当低，美联储 的政策是适度限制的。并表示，如果双重目标之间存在矛盾，要考虑与目标之间的距离和弥合差距的时 间。随着事态发展，如果时机合适，美联储可以迅速采取行动。 ...

当地时间2025年4月16日，美国纽约，一家超市张贴限售告示。IC photo 【文/观察者网 张菁娟】当地时间5月6日至7日，美联储将迎来今年第三次货币政策例会，预计美联储 主席鲍威尔将顶住来自美国总统特朗普的压力，选择维持当前利率不变。 据美联社5日报道，美联储大概率将基准利率维持在4.3%左右。鲍威尔和美联储利率制定委员会的其他 18位官员中的大部分人都表示，他们希望在采取任何行动之前先观察特朗普的关税对经济的影响。 报道称，特朗普上周五（5月2日）在社交平台发文，声称没有通货膨胀，美联储应该降低利率。"汽油 价格刚刚跌破了每加仑1.98美元，这是多年来的最低水平，食品杂货（和鸡蛋！）价格下跌，能源价格 下跌，抵押贷款利率下降，就业强劲，还有更多的好消息，关税带来了数十亿美元的收入。" 然而此说法不尽属实，美联社指出，过去三个月中，有两个月食品价格上涨0.5%，同比涨幅达2.4%。 汽油和石油价格确实有所下降，与一年前相比下降了10%，部分原因是市场担心经济衰退。不过，根据 美国汽车协会（AAA）的数据，美国平均汽油价格为每加仑3.18美元。 据报道，美联储青睐的通胀指标——PCE指数今年一季度上升3. ...