6 证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 12 月 19 日 晨会纪要 第一创业证券研究所 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 一、宏观经济组： 事件： 分析师：刘笑瑜 12 月 18 日（星期四）晚 9 点半，美国劳工部统计局公布 11 月 CPI 数据。 证书编号：S1080525070001 对上述事件发展趋势的点评，存在由于经济增长、行业竞争、销售不及预期等变 化，而不如预期的可能。 电话：0755-23838239 邮箱：liuxiaoyu@fcsc.com 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 第 1 页 共 3 页 晨会纪要 评论： 11 月美国未季调 CPI 同比为 2.7%，预期 3.1%,从 11 月核心 CPI 来看，未季调同比 为 2.6%，预期为 3.0%。 美国劳工部并未公布 11 月环比及分项数据，以及 10 月通胀数据。但仅从上述两 个数据上看，11 月美国 CPI 数据低于预期，创 2021 年初以来的新低，显示美国通 胀压力减轻。据 CME"美联储观察"：美联储明年 1 月维持利率不变的概率下降为 73.4%，降息 25 个基点的概率上升至为 26.6%。 市场表现积极：美股 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global economy is turning weak as the US is making a series of wrong policies and is starting to contract globally, which will have a profound impact on major asset classes [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro and Financial - Global Economy - Trump stated that the next Fed Chair must believe in "significant rate cuts" and mortgage loan rates will further decline, and he previously asked to cut rates to 1% [1]. - The Bank of Japan is focusing on its subsequent policy path, needing to balance multiple goals [1]. - Trump's account plan is to provide $1000 for newborns to invest in US stocks, which could grow to about $5800 at 18 and about $600,000 at retirement, and over $300,000 at 18 with additional family investment [1]. - PJM's latest electricity supply auction will cost consumers $16.4 billion, with the daily cost per megawatt rising from $329.17 to $333.44 [1]. - The global platinum market will face a third - consecutive - year supply shortage in 2025, with a gap of 850,000 ounces and limited supply growth in the future [1]. - Hedge fund Point72 is considering entering the commodity trading business due to asset price fluctuations [1]. - Early Bitcoin holders are cashing out at the fastest pace in recent years, and the absorbing demand from ETFs and institutions has faded [1]. - India has become the most active AI consumer market globally, but local startups face greater competition [1]. - The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points in December, buys $40 billion of short - term bonds monthly, and its balance sheet is expanding again [2]. - Some traders are betting on a Q1 rate - cut in the changing bond - option market [2]. - The decline in Las Vegas gambling revenue is similar to the 2008 financial crisis warning [2]. - The US released a new National Security Strategy, adjusting its economic relationship with China [2]. - The Fed's Beige Book shows a K - shaped consumer spending gap in the US [2]. - Japan's 10 - year Treasury yield reached its highest since July 2007 [2]. - AI - driven investment will expand the credit market, with investment - grade bond issuance expected to reach $2.25 trillion [2]. - Google plans to double AI computing power every 6 months and achieve a 1000 - fold increase in 4 - 5 years [2]. - NVIDIA's CEO believes China will win the AI race due to regulatory and energy cost advantages [2]. - AI data - center construction will require at least $5 trillion in the next five years [2]. - The US unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, raising concerns about economic slowdown [2].

关于针对像Coreweave(CRWV.US)和甲骨文(ORCL.US)这样经历近期市场波动的特定公司的担忧，也得 到了客观看待。Cho澄清，这些情况并不表示整体AI需求正在减弱。相反，它们通常反映了运营挑战或 供应链瓶颈。 他解释道："我认为到2026年，资金不会成为问题。如果你想想Coreweave和甲骨文，我认为你也必须意 识到，他们面临的不是需求问题。他们正在处理一些供应链积压问题。"这一区别对投资者至关重要， 表明特定公司的挫折并不预示着更广泛的行业衰退，而是暂时的、可解决的运营障碍。 Cho提出的第二个关键见解涉及基础AI模型领域领导地位的动态性和固有的波动性。AI模型领域感知领 先者的快速更替是这个新生市场的决定性特征。今天看似主导的，明天就可能被超越。 智通财经APP获悉，高盛资管公开科技投资与美国基础股权联席主管Sung Cho最近与Scott Wapner讨论 时传递了一个核心且令人安心的信息：当前市场上普遍存在的、通常由企业估值剧烈波动和感知到的脆 弱性所引发的人工智能融资焦虑，在很大程度上被夸大了。 此次对话深入探讨了AI投资交易的轨迹、更广泛的市场前景以及该行业资本结构的基础稳定性， ...

Core Insights - Meta plans to invest $60 billion in AI despite reporting a net profit of $37 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, highlighting the financial challenges faced by tech giants in the AI arms race [1][2] Financing Challenges - The need for massive funding for AI infrastructure, including expensive AI chips and data centers, poses a dilemma for tech giants on how to secure funds without negatively impacting their financial statements [2][3] - Morgan Stanley estimates that "invisible debt" could reach $800 billion by 2028, representing significant liabilities that do not appear on the balance sheets of these companies [2] SPV Financing Method - The Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) financing method allows tech giants to isolate debt and optimize their financial reports by transferring the debt to a separate entity [3][4] - This method involves creating an SPV to borrow money using the parent company's credit, allowing the SPV to purchase assets and lease them back to the parent company, thus keeping the debt off the parent company's balance sheet [4] Examples of SPV Utilization - Meta successfully utilized this SPV method to increase its debt by $30 billion on its balance sheet while leveraging it to acquire $60 billion in computing assets [4] - Google has adopted a similar strategy by providing credit guarantees to weaker companies, allowing them to secure loans for data center assets, which are then leased back to Google [5] Circular Financing - The concept of circular financing allows companies to create a closed loop of capital flow among related parties, enhancing financial efficiency [7] - For instance, xAI established an SPV to raise $20 billion for purchasing NVIDIA chips, with minimal direct debt risk, showcasing the flexibility of this financing model [7] Industry Dynamics - Major tech companies are forming strategic alliances to create a tightly-knit capital community, which can amplify their financial capabilities and market influence [9][10] - Recent collaborations among giants like OpenAI, NVIDIA, and Oracle have resulted in over $1 trillion in infrastructure and chip agreements, indicating a trend towards deeper integration in the AI sector [9] Scaling Law and Market Sentiment - The pursuit of Scaling Law drives exponential growth in computing demand, benefiting companies like NVIDIA, which has seen significant revenue increases [15] - However, industry leaders express caution regarding potential irrational exuberance in AI investments, with warnings about the risks of a bubble [15][16] Capital Market Movements - Notable investors are shifting their strategies, with significant sell-offs in NVIDIA stock while simultaneously investing in AI applications and models, indicating a transition in focus from hardware to software [16][17] - This shift suggests that while financing challenges may be temporarily addressed, the competition in the AI landscape is just beginning, with a more intense focus on applications and models ahead [17]

Core Viewpoint - OpenAI is negotiating a secondary sale of employee stock, potentially reaching a valuation of $500 billion, which would make it the highest-valued private company globally [1][7]. Group 1: OpenAI Valuation - OpenAI's valuation is expected to reach $500 billion, surpassing the current highest private company valuation held by ByteDance at $300 billion [1]. - The rapid increase in OpenAI's valuation is notable, having reached $300 billion after a $40 billion funding round in April 2025 [3][7]. - The valuation growth is attributed to significant investments, including $30 billion from SoftBank during the previous funding round [7]. Group 2: Comparisons with Other Companies - In the U.S. stock market, companies with market capitalizations exceeding $500 billion include Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Google, Amazon, and others, totaling around 20 entities [3]. - Other AI companies like Anthropic and xAI are also experiencing substantial valuations, with Anthropic recently valued at $170 billion and xAI at $800 billion after recent funding rounds [4][6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The U.S. AI financing market is characterized by rapid valuation increases, with primary market valuations growing faster than secondary market valuations [7]. - OpenAI's valuation strategy may be a response to competitive pressures from companies like Meta, which has been actively recruiting AI talent from OpenAI [7]. - The trend of high valuations in the AI sector reflects a broader phenomenon in the U.S. capital markets, where companies are achieving unprecedented market caps [9][10].

Group 1: U.S. Stock Market and Earnings Reports - The current earnings season shows that good performance is no longer sufficient to support stock prices, with high valuations acting as a constraint [1] - Major banks like JPMorgan and Bank of America reported solid earnings, but stock price increases were limited, indicating a low tolerance for mistakes among investors [1][2] - The S&P 500's expected earnings growth for Q2 is 10%, down from 13% in Q1, with technology, communications, and healthcare sectors expected to lead growth [1][3] Group 2: Banking Sector Performance - Six major U.S. banks benefited from a rebound in trading activities, with notable increases in investment banking revenues: JPMorgan up 7% to $2.5 billion, Citigroup up 13% to $1 billion, and Goldman Sachs up 26% to $2.191 billion [2][3] - Some banks are increasing loan loss provisions in anticipation of potential economic downturns, with Citigroup's provisions up 16% and JPMorgan's up 25% [3] Group 3: Semiconductor Industry Insights - NXP Semiconductors reported Q2 revenue of $2.93 billion, down 6% year-over-year, but the decline is slowing compared to a 9% drop in Q1 [5][6] - The automotive chip business generated $1.73 billion, halting a five-quarter decline, but the overall outlook remains cautious due to weak demand in automotive and industrial sectors [5][6] Group 4: Technology Sector Outlook - The upcoming earnings reports from major tech companies are expected to significantly influence the market, with anticipated earnings growth of 14.1% for the tech giants [8][9] - A weaker dollar is expected to benefit U.S. stocks, particularly tech companies, as over half of their revenue comes from overseas [8] Group 5: AI and Technology Financing - Morgan Stanley highlights a $1.5 trillion financing gap for AI development, with significant capital expenditure expected in data centers, projected to reach $2.9 trillion by 2028 [10][11] - The demand for funding in the tech sector is rising, with large tech firms facing a $1.5 billion financing gap despite strong cash flows [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rapid rise of AI startups, particularly focusing on Anysphere, which recently completed a $900 million financing round, achieving a valuation of $9 billion. This reflects the ongoing trend of young entrepreneurs, particularly those born in the 2000s, making significant strides in the AI industry [1][11]. Group 1: Company Overview - Anysphere, founded by four MIT graduates, has developed an AI programming tool called Cursor that simplifies coding by allowing users to generate code using simple everyday commands [3][4]. - The company achieved $100 million in annualized revenue within a year of launching Cursor, making it one of the fastest-growing startups in history [6]. - Cursor has gained popularity among major companies, including OpenAI and Shopify, and has undergone multiple updates and iterations to enhance its functionality [6][10]. Group 2: Investment and Growth - Anysphere's funding journey began with seed investments from OpenAI's startup fund and Neo, totaling approximately $800,000 [9]. - The company has attracted a prestigious group of investors, including a16z, Thrive Capital, and Google’s chief scientist, Jeff Dean, with its valuation increasing significantly over time [10][11]. - The latest financing round of $900 million was led by Thrive Capital, further solidifying Anysphere's position in the AI market [11]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The article notes a broader trend of young founders, particularly those born in the 2000s, emerging in the AI sector, with examples like the AI recruitment platform Mercor and the AI programming company Magic [14][15]. - The average age of founders in 2024 is reported to be the youngest in history, with a significant portion being from the 90s and 00s, indicating a shift towards younger entrepreneurs in the tech landscape [15][16]. - Investors are increasingly recognizing the potential of young innovators who possess technical skills and a fresh perspective on new technologies [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and dynamics of financing in the AI industry, highlighting the shift towards state-owned capital and the difficulties faced by startups in securing funding amidst a tightening investment environment [2][8][12]. Group 1: Financing Landscape - In the past year, the U.S. saw $80.8 billion in AI venture capital, significantly outpacing China's investment [2]. - The financing cycle for startups is shortening, while the time to complete a single round of financing is lengthening, leading to a "short and quick" financing approach [3]. - State-owned capital has become a prominent source of funding, with many startups now relying on government-backed investments [12][13]. Group 2: Challenges for Startups - AI entrepreneurs face increased scrutiny regarding profitability and commercial viability, with many questioning the long-term sustainability of projects [3][4]. - The density of talent and rising computational costs make it increasingly difficult for startups to thrive without continuous funding [5][6]. - The current investment climate is characterized by a cautious approach, where each financing round is seen as a critical choice [4][6]. Group 3: Role of State-Owned Capital - State-owned capital is viewed as a necessary partner for many AI companies, with significant investments from government-backed funds in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen [12][13]. - The Beijing AI Industry Investment Fund has invested in over 30 AI companies since its inception, with a total investment decision amounting to approximately 17 billion yuan [12]. - Companies that secure state funding often need to align their operations with local government policies and expectations [14]. Group 4: International Funding Strategies - Some startups are looking beyond domestic funding sources, with examples of companies successfully raising capital from international investors in regions like Singapore and Japan [16][17]. - The path to securing funding from Silicon Valley remains challenging, requiring specific conditions such as founder nationality and company structure [17][20]. - The trend of Chinese founders targeting global markets while leveraging lower operational costs in China is becoming more common [17]. Group 5: Corporate Venture Capital (CVC) and Mergers - Corporate venture capital from major tech firms is becoming a significant source of funding, although it comes with the risk of direct competition [25]. - Recent acquisitions in the AI sector indicate a trend where early investors exit while maintaining independent operations for the acquired companies [26]. - The potential for increased mergers and acquisitions in the AI space is growing, driven by the rapid entry of large tech firms into the market [27].