Core Viewpoint - The onset of a new cold wave in northern China has marked the official start of centralized heating, entering a critical period for energy supply during winter [1] Group 1: Energy Supply and Demand - Energy companies have fully activated their winter supply mode, with China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) planning a 3.7% year-on-year increase in natural gas supply resources for the heating season, accounting for approximately 60% of the domestic supply total [1] - The stability and emergency response capability of the natural gas transmission network are directly related to national energy security [1] Group 2: Infrastructure and Storage - The National Pipeline Network Group is centralizing and coordinating the allocation of resources, enhancing the safety maintenance of equipment and facilities, and improving the emergency capabilities of the pipeline network [1] - Gas storage facilities act as "underground granaries" for natural gas, where surplus gas is injected during off-peak seasons and extracted during peak winter heating periods, serving as a stabilizing force for energy supply [1] - Domestic gas storage facilities have completed their annual injection tasks ahead of schedule, ensuring sufficient energy reserves for residential heating [1]

央视网消息：随着新一轮寒潮天气的到来，我国北方地区集中供暖已正式开启，能源保供也步入迎峰度冬关键期，能源企业全面开启 冬供模式。 作为华北地区天然气调峰保供的重要枢纽，天津液化天然气接收站采用"双船在泊、同步卸料"的作业模式，提升接卸效率和储备能 力，目前单日最高外输气量超3700万方，较去年同期增长15%。 在山东青岛，一艘满载6.9万吨液化天然气的运输船靠泊接收站，开始接卸作业。这是该站10月以来接卸的第7船液化天然气。 在推动海上进口资源稳供增供的同时，陆上气田加大了增产保供力度。国内最大天然气生产基地——中国石油长庆油田目前天然气产 量提升至1.35亿立方米，较月初增加300万立方米。在四川达州，"川气东送"工程主供气源地的中原油田普光气田，随着多口日产超 20万立方米的高产新井接连投产，气田备战迎峰度冬的天然气井数量已突破80口，创历史新高。 管网加速建设 提升 "全国一张网"度峰能力 天然气输送网络的稳定性与应急能力直接关系全国的能源安全。国家管网集团集中统一调配，加强设备设施安全维护，提升管网应急 能力。 新疆北疆地区近日迎来大风降温天气，为应对极端天气对管网运行的影响，国家管网集团启动了应急保 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on thermal coal spot are all "oscillation". The increase in wait - and - see sentiment has led to the temporary stability of port coal prices. Due to factors such as the approaching peak winter season, low coal stocks in northern ports, and the expected contraction of coal supply at the end of the year, coal prices have been strongly rising recently. However, after the National Development and Reform Commission mentioned energy supply guarantee again, market sentiment cooled down, and it is expected that thermal coal will start to oscillate at a high level in the short term [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Price and Inventory Data - As of November 13, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 24.092 million tons, with a weekly cumulative increase of 568,000 tons, but still significantly lower than the same period last year by 3.244 million tons [4]. 3.2 Market Driving Factors - Previously, the approaching peak winter season, low coal stocks in northern ports, and the expected contraction of coal supply at the end of the year drove the recent strong operation of coal prices. Today, the National Development and Reform Commission's mention of energy supply guarantee cooled down the market sentiment [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of a nationwide cold wave and strong winds on various sectors, including agriculture, transportation, energy, and market supply, highlighting the measures taken by relevant departments to address these challenges [1][2][3]. Energy Supply and Demand - The cold wave is expected to increase energy demand, with daily gas consumption reaching 1.18 billion cubic meters and peak electricity load at 1.13 billion kilowatts, although still below peak winter levels [3][4]. - National energy supply remains sufficient, with coal reserves at 230 million tons, enough for 35 days, and gas storage at high levels to ensure stable operations [3][4]. Market Supply of Essential Goods - The Ministry of Commerce is focused on ensuring stable supply of essential goods during the cold wave, enhancing market monitoring and increasing the organization of goods to meet basic consumer needs [5][6]. - Prices for vegetables and fruits have risen by 1.7% and 1.9% respectively since the beginning of the month, while pork prices have decreased by 1.4%, indicating a mixed market response [6]. Agricultural Impact - The cold wave poses risks to agricultural production, particularly for facilities and crops, with warnings issued for snow and frost damage [7]. - The Ministry of Agriculture is coordinating with meteorological authorities to prepare for adverse weather effects, advising on crop management and facility protection [7]. Transportation and Logistics - The Ministry of Transport is implementing measures to ensure road and waterway safety during the cold wave, enhancing monitoring and response capabilities for extreme weather conditions [8]. - Specific focus is on maintaining traffic flow on critical routes and ensuring the safety of vessels during adverse weather [8]. Public Health Recommendations - The cold wave is expected to increase flu risks in several regions, prompting health officials to recommend reduced outdoor activities and increased indoor ventilation [9]. - Vulnerable populations, including the elderly and children, are advised to take precautions against cold-related health issues [9].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Coal and Coke Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: November 17, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua Research Institute, Black Research Team [2] - Analyst: Zhang Xuan, License No. Z0022723 [2] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [2] Group 2: Price Forecast and Volatility - **Price Range Forecast (Monthly)** - Coking Coal: 1100 - 1350 [3] - Coke: 1550 - 1850 [3] - **Current Volatility (20 - day Rolling)** - Coking Coal: 36.02% [3] - Coke: 28.42% [3] - **Current Volatility Historical Percentile** - Coking Coal: 69.61% [3] - Coke: 60.19% [3] Group 3: Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Hedging** - Scenario: Steel mills' profit margins are shrinking, making it difficult for coke producers to raise prices. Coke producers are worried about future price drops and want to lock in sales prices in advance. - Strategy: Short the Coke 2601 contract. - Hedging Tool: J2601 (Sell) - Recommended Hedging Ratio: 25% at (1780, 1830); 50% at (1830 - 1880) [3] - **Procurement Management** - Scenario: Macroeconomic sentiment is fluctuating. Coking coal mine production rates are seasonally low. Factors such as over - production checks and anti - cut - throat competition in the fourth quarter are affecting coking coal supply. Coking plants are worried about future price increases and want to lock in procurement prices in advance. - Strategy: Long the Coking Coal 2605 contract. - Hedging Tool: JM2605 (Buy) - Recommended Hedging Ratio: 25% at (1150, 1180); 50% at (1120, 1150) [3] Group 4: Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report | Commodity | Unit | 2025 - 11 - 17 | 2025 - 11 - 14 | 2025 - 11 - 10 | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | Tons | 108272 | 111927 | 128592 | - 3655 | - 20320 | | Hot - Rolled Coil | Tons | 150567 | 144083 | 127028 | 6484 | 23539 | | Iron Ore | Lots | 900 | 900 | 800 | 0 | 100 | | Coking Coal | Lots | 100 | 100 | 100 | 0 | 0 | | Coke | Lots | 2070 | 2070 | 2070 | 0 | 0 | | Ferrosilicon | Contracts | 8450 | 8450 | 5699 | 0 | 2751 | | Ferromanganese | Contracts | 19863 | 18663 | 14358 | 1200 | 5505 | [4] Group 5: Core Logic and Strategy Recommendations - **Core Logic** - Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission emphasized stable energy production and supply and peak - period energy security, but this is a routine policy and not the core reason for the downward trend in the futures market. - The key factors are the large increase in coking coal and thermal coal spot prices, low acceptance from downstream users, strong market wait - and - see sentiment, and miners' fear of high prices leading to faster sales. - Downstream steel mills' losses are increasing, more steel mills plan to conduct maintenance, iron - water production is expected to decline, and coal - coke demand is seasonally weakening. It is difficult for the fourth round of coke price increases to be implemented. - In the short term, futures and spot prices may face adjustment pressure. In the long term, over - production checks and safety production policies will limit coking coal supply elasticity. With the upcoming winter storage demand, the downward space for coking coal spot prices is limited. [4] - **Strategy Recommendations** - Coking Coal reference range: (1100, 1350); Coke reference range: (1600, 1850). If prices fall to the lower end of the range and show signs of stabilization and rebound, consider going long. [4] Group 6:利多 and利空解读 - **利多解读** - In the fourth quarter, under the constraints of "anti - cut - throat competition" and "over - production checks" policies, domestic mine production rates face a theoretical upper limit, restricting coking coal supply elasticity. - As the starting year of the "14th Five - Year Plan" in 2026, the long - term market outlook has improved significantly, and this year's winter storage scale is expected to be better than last year, providing phased support for coal - coke prices. [6] - **利空解读** - Recently, steel mills' profits have been damaged, the number of maintenance steel mills has increased, iron - water production has decreased month - on - month, end - users generally believe that current coking coal spot prices are too high, and their willingness to purchase is low. Coal - coke demand has reached a phased peak, and short - term prices may face adjustment. [7] Group 7: Coal - Coke Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices** - Multiple indicators such as coking coal and coke warehouse receipt costs, basis, spreads between different contracts, and related ratios (e.g., coking profit, ore - coke ratio, etc.) are provided with specific values and their daily and weekly changes. [8] - **Spot Prices** - Spot prices of various coking coal and coke products, including domestic and imported ones, are given, along with their daily and weekly changes. Import and export profits for different types of coal and coke are also presented. [9][10]

秋意散尽，朔风渐起，凛冽寒意悄然来袭。从漠河的林海雪原到江南的烟雨街巷，从蒙东的辽阔草原到 川蜀的丘陵盆地，千家万户对温暖的期盼，正转化为能源保供战场上最紧迫的号角。在这寒冬时节，国 家能源集团各条保供战线上却处处是一片热火朝天的景象。井巷深处，机械轰鸣不绝于耳；运输动脉， 奔涌铁流川流不息；电厂厂区，机组运行昼夜不停，这冲天斗志与拳拳之心交融共鸣，化作源源不断的 暖流，涌向千家万户、点亮烟火人间。 进入冬季，面对严峻神圣的保供职责，国家能源集团锚定"保民生、保安全、保稳定"核心目标，深入发 挥一体化保供能力，充分释放优质产能，坚持"以煤定电、以热定电"，全力以赴保产量、保供应、保民 生，以高度的政治责任感和使命感扛起保障迎峰度冬用能需求重任，守护人民群众温暖过冬。今年前10 个月，国家能源集团月均产煤量超5000万吨。 保产量，筑牢能源保供产能支撑 面对保供重任，国家能源集团将保持煤炭稳产高产作为首要任务，重点强化煤炭资源组织，加大外采和 储备力度。10月以来，已向全国供应商品煤近亿吨，同比增长2.2%，蒙东东北等关键区域稳步提升库 存，全力保障资源充足。联动运输环节，通过精细化管理深挖产能、筑牢运输防线， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report has a cautious bearish view on the coking coal and coke industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The domestic coking coal supply shortage pattern remains unbroken, and demand depends on the decline of subsequent hot metal production. Currently in a policy window period, with increased market wait - and - see sentiment. Short - term strategies suggest exiting the market or short - selling. Coking coal main contract reference range is [1150, 1230], and coke main contract reference range is [1630, 1710] [4] Market Overview - This week, black commodity prices continued to diverge, with coal and coke prices dropping significantly and steel and ore performing relatively strongly. The National Development and Reform Commission deployed energy supply work for the heating season. Domestically, coal mine production increased slightly but remained at a low level. Some mines had slow supply recovery. Downstream, hot metal production rebounded, and blast furnace operating rates remained high, supporting raw material demand. Imported port clearance vehicles increased, but downstream purchasing was cautious. Coke enterprises had smooth shipments, low inventory, and reduced restocking. The fourth round of price increases was implemented, and there was an expectation of a fifth round [6] Coking Coal Market Coking Coal Warehouse Receipt Cost - Different types of coking coal have different spot prices and warehouse receipt costs in various locations. For example, in Tangshan on November 14, 2025, the spot price of Meng 5 was 1550 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt cost was 1323 yuan/ton [10] Coking Coal Basis - The 01 basis strengthened to a high level in the same period. For the 1 - month contract, the basis was 325, with a weekly change of 13 and a basis rate of 23.57% [11][15] Coking Coal Month - to - Month Spread - The report mentions this item, but no specific data is provided [16] Coking Coal Supply - Mines: This week, the average daily output of raw coal from 523 mines was 1.9195 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 56,200 tons; the average daily output of clean coal was 757,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 19,100 tons. - Coal washing plants: The average daily output of sample coal washing plants was 274,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate was 37.43%, a week - on - week increase of 0.56% [22][25] Coking Coal Import - From January to September 2025, China's cumulative coking coal imports decreased by 6.45% year - on - year. Different countries had different import volume changes. For example, Mongolia's cumulative imports were 41.75 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.85% [26][27] Coking Coal Auction Data - This week, the coking coal auction listing volume was 1.5544 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 67,600 tons; the成交 rate was 88.42%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.65%; the flow - auction rate was 11.58%, a week - on - week increase of 4.65% [32] Coking Coal Total Inventory - The report mentions this item, but no specific data is provided [33] Coking Coal Inventory Distribution - The report mentions this item, but no specific data is provided [35] Coke Market Coking Profit - Coking profits in different regions changed. Nationally, the profit on November 13, 2025, was - 34 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12 yuan/ton [42] Coke Basis - For the 1 - month coke contract, the basis was - 6, with a weekly change of 47 and a basis rate of - 0.38% [47] Coke Month - to - Month Spread - The report mentions this item, but no specific data is provided [48] Coke Supply - The report mentions this item, but no specific data is provided [50] Coke Demand - This week, the average daily coke consumption was 1.066 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 12,000 tons; the profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 38.96%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87% [54] Coke Total Inventory - The total coke inventory on November 14, 2025, was 8.7935 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 77,000 tons [60] Coke Inventory Distribution - Steel mills' inventory was 6.224 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 42,400 tons; independent coking enterprises' inventory was 581,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,500 tons; port inventory was 1.988 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 33,100 tons [60] Registered Warehouse Receipts - The report mentions this item, but no specific data is provided [62] Futures Positions - The report mentions this item, but no specific data is provided [64] Net Long Positions of TOP20 Seats in Coking Coal and Coke - The report mentions this item, but no specific data is provided [69]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The daily view of thermal coal spot is to maintain a mid - term view of "oscillation". It is expected that thermal coal will start to operate in a high - level oscillation in the short term [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - As of November 13th, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 2.4092 billion tons, with a weekly cumulative inventory of 568,000 tons, but still significantly lower than the same period last year by 324,400 tons [4] - Due to the approaching peak winter, low coal inventory in northern ports, and the expected contraction of coal supply at the end of the year, coal prices have been strongly rising recently. However, the National Development and Reform Commission mentioned energy supply guarantee again, which cooled the market sentiment [4]

Core Insights - The arrival of the "MARAN GAS CORONIS" marks the first LNG vessel to dock at Yangjiang Port, enhancing the energy transportation hub function in the western Guangdong region [1] - The Yangjiang LNG terminal is a key facility for the LNG peak-shaving storage project, with a design capacity of 2.1 million tons per year in the short term and up to 6 million tons per year in the long term [1] - The LNG delivered will support the winter energy demand in South China, indicating the strategic importance of the terminal for regional energy supply [1] Summary by Sections LNG Terminal Development - The Yangjiang LNG terminal is located in the Yangjiang High-tech Zone and features a dedicated berth for LNG with a capacity of 175,000 cubic meters [1] - The terminal's opening is significant for improving the regional energy layout and serves as an important LNG receiving and refueling base for western Guangdong [1] Maritime Safety and Operations - Yangjiang maritime authorities ensured safe and efficient docking through comprehensive preparations, including channel clearance and traffic control [2] - The maritime department conducted safety inspections and coordinated with the ship and terminal operators to establish docking plans and emergency procedures [2] - Real-time monitoring and coordination were implemented during the docking process to maintain communication among all parties involved [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the measures taken by the Chinese government and energy companies to ensure energy supply during the upcoming winter season, particularly in the face of a cold wave and increased heating demand. Group 1: Energy Supply Measures - The National Energy Administration has proactively arranged for sufficient coal and natural gas supply, optimized electricity dispatch to prioritize residential heating and key industrial production, and enhanced the efficiency of renewable energy utilization [1][10]. - The State Grid has completed 113 new 500 kV and above power grid infrastructure projects this year, improving cross-regional transmission capacity to support winter peak electricity demand [5][10]. Group 2: Coal and Electricity Supply Stability - National coal daily dispatch production has maintained a high level of over 12.3 million tons since October, with coal stockpiles at power plants sufficient for 35 days as of November 11 [5][10]. - The article highlights the importance of coal as a stabilizing force in the energy supply system, with various regions ensuring efficient coal transportation and market regulation to prevent price fluctuations [5][10]. Group 3: Technological Innovations - The integration of new technologies such as smart sensing and artificial intelligence is enhancing the efficiency and reliability of the energy supply system, with proactive repair models being implemented to minimize power outages during the heating season [6][7]. - The development of renewable energy projects, such as the integration of wind and solar power, is contributing to a cleaner energy supply, with renewable energy generation reaching 2.89 trillion kWh in the first three quarters of the year, a 15.5% increase year-on-year [8][9]. Group 4: Multi-Energy Coordination - The article emphasizes the coordinated efforts across various energy sectors, including oil and gas, to ensure stable resource supply for both residential heating and industrial production [10][12]. - The establishment of a multi-energy supply system is seen as crucial for maintaining energy security, with a focus on intelligent scheduling and green low-carbon development [10][13].