Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that if tariffs do not lead to inflationary pressures, the Federal Reserve may consider resuming interest rate cuts [1][2] - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee noted that recent inflation data shows no significant inflationary pressure, which was unexpected [1] - There is a phenomenon of "burden sharing" in some industries, where tariff costs are distributed among suppliers, producers, and consumers [1] Group 2 - There is a divergence in views among Federal Reserve officials regarding the timing of interest rate cuts, with some supporting cuts as early as July if inflation remains controlled [2] - The June dot plot reflects the highest level of disagreement among Fed officials in a decade regarding the balance between inflation control and economic growth [2] - The uncertainty regarding the interest rate path for 2025, as measured by the difference between the maximum and minimum values in the dot plot, is not unprecedented and is even lower than the same period last year [2]

泰国议会批准规模达1154亿泰铢的支出计划，旨在支持经济增长。 ...

金十数据6月23日讯，美联储理事鲍曼表示："如果通胀压力得到控制，我将支持在下次会议上尽快降低 政策利率，以使其更接近中性水平并维持健康的劳动力市场。"鲍曼去年一直非常关注通胀风险。她 说，由于预计今年经济将出现更多闲置产能，她认为关税带来的价格上涨将是"小幅且一次性"的。她将 劳动力市场描述为坚实且预计接近充分就业的水平。但她亦援引了脆弱性的证据，包括劳动力市场活力 减弱、经济增长放缓和就业增长的狭隘集中，因此认为美联储在未来的决策中应"更加重视就业目标所 面临的下行风险"。这是鲍曼自今年春季被特朗普提名并经参议院确认出任美联储监管副主席以来，首 次就经济前景发表实质性评论。 美联储理事鲍曼暗示：或会支持7月降息 ...

Geopolitical Risks and Market Reactions - The recent U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities have become a focal point for the market, despite the expectation that geopolitical risks would increase demand for safe-haven assets [1] - The market remains cautious, partly due to the hawkish stance maintained by Federal Reserve officials [1] - If Iran were to close the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could exceed $100, leading to heightened fear and panic among investors [1] Currency Volatility - The volatility of the USD/JPY pair is the highest across all time frames, particularly with a one-month volatility rate of -0.028 [2] - The USD/JPY pair rose to 147.39 yen following the U.S. attack on Iran, with traders holding $12.5 billion in yen long positions [2] - The Japanese yen has depreciated by 2.4% against the dollar since the Israeli missile strikes on Iranian targets began [2] Impact on Japan's Economy - Japan's heavy reliance on imported oil makes it vulnerable to rising oil prices, which threaten its trade balance and weaken the yen's attractiveness [3] - The spike in oil prices has worsened Japan's trade conditions, further diminishing its economic competitiveness [3] Eurozone Economic Indicators - The Eurozone's natural gas prices are highly correlated with the euro exchange rate, with rising gas prices likely to weaken the euro and reduce the current account surplus [5] - Natural gas prices have surged from approximately $2.8 to over $4 since late April, indicating a potential further shrinkage of the Eurozone's surplus [6] - The Eurozone's economic growth exceeded expectations at the beginning of the year, but lost momentum in April due to U.S. tariff policies [6] Swiss Franc and Safe-Haven Demand - The Swiss franc is supported by safe-haven demand and signals from the Swiss National Bank indicating no inclination to lower interest rates further [7] - The current USD/CHF pair is trading within a range established over the past week, with market participants remaining cautious about directional choices [7] UK Economic Activity - The UK's PMI data exceeded expectations, yet the GBP/USD exchange rate fell by 0.1% to $1.3430, indicating a muted market reaction [8] - Manufacturing activity in the UK has contracted for the ninth consecutive month, although the contraction rate is the smallest since January [8] - The June services PMI rose from 50.9 to 51.3, while the manufacturing PMI improved from 46.4 to 47.7, suggesting a slight recovery despite ongoing challenges [8]

美联储决策者们的不确定性在上周美联储最新的"点阵图"中已显而易见，该图表概述了未来的利率走 向。尽管有八名官员认为2025年仍将有两次降息，但有七名官员预计根本不会降息——这一数字高于此 前持此看法的四名官员。 随着美联储官员们为7月的下一次会议做准备，并衡量特朗普的贸易、税收和移民政策对通胀及经济增 长路径的影响，特朗普上周末对伊朗三个核设施的打击，又为这些讨论注入了新一层未知数。 一些美联储观察人士担心，油价的持续上涨将加剧特朗普关税已在美国国内造成的通胀混乱。 摩根大通的分析师曾警告称，一场持久的冲突以及关键的霍尔木兹海峡可能被关闭，或将油价推高至每 桶120美元，从而将美国通胀率推回到5%左右。 播客：伊朗遇袭难倒美联储 下载mp3 美联储本已在努力应对未来货币政策路径的诸多不确定性，而美国总统特朗普上周末对伊朗核设施的打 击，可能会让这条路径在短期内变得更加扑朔迷离。 在特朗普决定发动袭击前的几天里，美联储内部一位有影响力的理事确实更响亮地支持降息，他驳斥了 关于特朗普关税可能导致长期通胀的担忧。 另一方面，华尔街也流传着一种观点，认为这场冲突可能促使美联储比预期更早地降息。 牛津经济研究院首席美国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global economy is currently facing multiple challenges, including slowing growth, financial market instability, and limitations of traditional economic policies. The role of money in the economy is being re-evaluated, emphasizing its importance as a tool for national economic policy [1]. Group 1: Books Overview - "The Nature of Money: New Theories of Prosperity, Crisis, and Capital" explores the critical role of money in economic prosperity and crises, constructing a comprehensive theoretical framework that reveals the complex relationship between money, economic growth, and financial stability [4][5]. - "Long-Term Crisis: Reshaping the Global Economy" argues for global solutions to global problems, emphasizing the need for enhanced and inclusive technological progress, new macroeconomic theories, and reforms in the global governance system to create a fairer international order [8][9]. - "The Mother of Money and the Anchor of Risk: Decoding the New Logic of Modern Fiscal-Financial Relations" highlights the importance of the coordination between fiscal and monetary policies, asserting that understanding their intrinsic connection is essential for sustainable development [13][14]. Group 2: Key Insights from Books - Sufficient money supply is crucial for a country to respond to financial crises and ensure national security, as demonstrated by the U.S. during various crises, where increased money supply significantly bolstered economic strength [6]. - The understanding of fiscal sustainability has evolved, recognizing the long-term rationality of government debt, especially in low-interest-rate environments, where the focus shifts from repayment to interest payments [14][15]. - Modern monetary theory posits that fiscal sustainability primarily considers real economic resource constraints, with inflation being a direct limiting factor, thus redefining the functions of fiscal deficits and debt beyond traditional fiscal attributes [15][16].

Core Insights - Germany's business activity has shown signs of recovery in June, driven by a resurgence in the manufacturing sector, with new orders increasing at the highest rate in over three years [1] - Four German economic research institutes have revised their forecasts for 2025, now expecting economic growth after two consecutive years of contraction [1] - Despite the overall recovery, the service sector continues to experience a slowdown, although at a reduced pace compared to previous months [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint from Powell indicates that the current interest rate level (5.25%-5.50%) is high but not significantly suppressive to the economy, suggesting that the overall economic performance remains strong [3] - Powell defines the current policy stance as "moderately restrictive" rather than "tight," indicating that the Federal Reserve believes existing rates can gradually lower inflation without immediate suppression [3][4] - The resilience of the U.S. economy, characterized by a stable job market and strong consumer spending, limits the tightening space for interest rate policies, as high rates have not triggered clear recession signals [3][4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is not focused on further rate hikes nor prepared for immediate cuts, entering a "fine balance period" to maintain anti-inflation signals while avoiding harm to economic growth [4] - Future economic data, particularly regarding inflation and employment, will be critical triggers for policy adjustments, indicating that the market will remain in a "data-driven" uncertain environment [4]

广发宏观周度述评（第19期） 广发宏观周度述评（第1-18期，复盘必读） 内容 第一， 三季度的增长条件。 2025年上半年，中国实际增长有效修复。"两新"、出口、服务类消费是经济的三大带动力量。前5个月设备工器具投资同比17.3%； 限额以上家电、手机零售同比分别为30.2%、27.1%；出口同比6.0%；服务零售额同比增长5.2%[1]。 三季度经济增长条件如何？ 从约束因素来看，主要有三点：（1）关税影响可能有一个滞后显现。5月出口同比初步有放缓迹象[2]，6月集装箱吞吐量[3]、EPMI出口订单也呈现类似指向 [4]；（2）房地产处于一轮小周期减速脉冲中，5月地产销售、投资降幅有所扩大，一二三线城市新建商品住宅价格指数环比均转负[5]；（3）社零单月同比5月至 6.4%的高位，反映前期积极政策效果的释放，这一增速已经不低（2020年以来年度增速最高是2023年的7.2%，之前一年负增长形成低基数；2019年实际GDP 同比6.1%，对应社零同比8.0%）。部分地区国补换档期间不排除存在月度波动。 从最新的边际变化来看，6月EPMI出现一定程度放缓。EPMI、PMI、BCI三大"软指标"年初以来的走势均 ...

美国5月PCE出炉，欧美PMI考验经济韧性。 本周看点颇多，美国5月个人消费支出（PCE）将出炉，数据或影响未来降息前景，美联储主席鲍威尔 将出席国会听证。欧美主要经济体将发布6月采购经理人指数（PMI），制造业和服务业活动调查是经 济增长的重要指标。与此同时，市场持续关注美国总统特朗普关税政策和伊以冲突进展。加拿大、澳大 利亚和日本等地将发布居民消费价格指数（CPI）数据，可能影响未来的政策路径。 鲍威尔亮相国会 上周联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）以全票通过的方式决定维持利率区间在4.25%-4.50%不变。利率点 阵图显示，今年依然有望降息两次，但面对特朗普政府关税计划带来的通胀风险，美联储有意放缓明年 的宽松步伐。 鲍威尔本周将出席国会参众两院的听证会，就半年度货币政策报告作证。美联储在报告中写道，货币政 策"定位良好"，通货膨胀预期有所上升，经济增长前景不稳定，评估关税影响为时尚早。 数据方面，6月PMI数据将受到关注。5月美国PMI超预期反弹，制造业和服务业活动扩张有所加快，这 一改善是在特朗普政府取消部分关税，推迟贸易谈判期限后产生的。然而，标普全球经济学家威廉姆森 （Chris Williams ...