| | | | VY & SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2026年01月07日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 螺纹 | ★☆☆ | | | 热卷 | ★☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | な女女 | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆☆ | | | 證硅 | ★★☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★★☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 【铁矿】 铁矿 今日盘面大幅上涨。 供应端，全球发运季节性回落，国内到港量环比增加，考虑到前期海外发运偏强，预计短期将维持高 位，港口库存保持累增趋势。需求端，淡季终端需求偏弱，钢厂盈利情况近期好转，上周铁水产量环比增加，但短期难有明显 复产。钢厂进口矿库存连续增加但仍然处于低位 ...

Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for rebar is ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish view but with limited operability on the trading floor [1]. - The investment rating for hot-rolled coil is ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bullish view but with limited operability on the trading floor [1]. - The investment rating for iron ore is ★★★, representing a clearer bullish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1]. - The investment rating for coke is ★☆☆, meaning a slightly bullish view but with limited operability on the trading floor [1]. - The investment rating for coking coal is ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish view but with limited operability on the trading floor [1]. - The investment rating for silicon manganese is ★★☆, suggesting a clear bullish trend and the market is currently evolving [1]. - The investment rating for ferrosilicon is ★☆★, the white star implies that the short - term bullish or bearish trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current trading floor has poor operability, so it's advisable to wait and see [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market has a slightly bullish short - term trend with caution due to factors like demand, supply, and macro - policies [2]. - The iron ore market is expected to trade sideways in the short term with a relatively loose fundamental situation [3]. - The coke market will likely trade sideways as the market anticipates stimulus policies despite a rich carbon supply and downstream demand characteristics [4]. - The coking coal market is likely to trade sideways as it faces fundamental pressure after discount repair but also has expectations for stimulus policies [6]. - For silicon manganese, it's recommended to try going long on dips considering the market situation [7]. - For ferrosilicon, it's recommended to try going long on dips given the demand and supply situation [8] Summary by Commodity Steel - Rebar's apparent demand has recovered, production has slightly increased, and inventory has continued to decline. Hot - rolled coil's supply and demand have both decreased, and de - stocking has accelerated slightly but pressure remains. Iron - water production has continued to fall, supply pressure is easing, and the slowdown of steel mill production cuts may slow. The downstream demand is weak, and exports are high. The short - term trading floor is expected to be slightly bullish [2]. Iron Ore - The global supply of iron ore is strong with high - end - of - year shipment expectations. Domestic arrivals are also strong, and port inventory has increased significantly. The demand is low in the off - season, and iron - water production cuts are expected to slow. The short - term trading floor is expected to trade sideways [3]. Coke - The third round of price cuts for coke has been fully implemented, production has slightly decreased, and inventory has slightly declined. The carbon supply is abundant, downstream demand has seasonal decline but still has resilience, and the price is likely to trade sideways [4]. Coking Coal - Some coal mines have reduced or stopped production at the end of the year. Production has slightly decreased, spot auction prices have slightly increased, and inventory has increased. The carbon supply is abundant, downstream demand has seasonal decline but still has resilience, and the price is likely to trade sideways [6]. Silicon Manganese - The spot price of manganese ore has increased. There are structural problems in port inventory. Iron - water production has decreased seasonally, and silicon manganese production and inventory have slightly declined. It's recommended to try going long on dips [7]. Ferrosilicon - There are expectations of coal supply guarantee, which may lead to a decline in electricity costs and blue - carbon prices. Iron - water production has rebounded, export demand has decreased, and metal magnesium production has increased. Supply has significantly decreased, and inventory has slightly declined. It's recommended to try going long on dips [8]

Core Insights - The global economy is seeking a new balance amid trade easing and policy stimulus, with significant market rebounds observed in Q3 2025 driven by improved US-China trade relations, optimism in artificial intelligence, and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts [1][2][5]. Market Performance - Global stock markets saw a notable rebound in Q3 2025, with emerging markets outperforming developed markets, particularly in Asia, where China (+20.8%), Taiwan (+14.7%), South Korea (+12.8%), and Thailand (+17.6%) led the gains. In contrast, India experienced a decline of 6.6% due to valuation pressures and foreign capital outflows [5][6]. - The fixed income market showed volatility but overall upward movement, with US Treasury yields declining across the board, particularly the 10-year yield which fell by 8 basis points to 4.16%. Emerging market dollar bonds performed strongly, achieving a 4.8% increase [6][11]. - The commodity market saw significant gains in gold (+16.4%) and precious metals (+17.4%), while energy and agricultural sectors lagged [11]. Economic Outlook - Future months may see a slowdown in global economic growth, but policy stimulus is expected to drive a rebound in early 2026. The US economy may weaken due to stagnant job growth and rising tariff costs, although investments in new infrastructure and technology sectors provide some support [2][14]. - China's recent credit growth slowdown indicates a need for stronger domestic demand, but upcoming policy measures may inject new momentum into the economy. The government is expected to set a GDP growth target of at least 4.5% for the next year [15][34]. Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is likely to continue cutting rates, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut in October and another in December. Other major central banks are anticipated to follow suit with easing measures [3][20]. - Asian countries are implementing new rounds of stimulus to counter economic pressures, with China expanding credit support, India reforming tax policies, and Indonesia providing cash transfers to households [32][33]. Inflation Trends - Inflation patterns are diverging globally, with the US expected to see a gradual rise in inflation to around 3.1%-3.2% due to tariff effects, while many Asian economies maintain lower inflation levels, allowing for more room for monetary easing [2][16]. - In China, inflation is projected to remain low, while Japan and India are managing inflation within target ranges through policy adjustments [16][34].

Group 1 - The current economic environment is characterized by conflicting views: one advocating for more stimulus measures and the other indicating a strong but mature economic cycle [1] - Private sector spending is growing at the fastest rate in 20 years, suggesting that additional stimulus may not be necessary [2] - High inflation rates are stabilizing at a 30-year high, impacting the perception of nominal growth [2] Group 2 - The rapid investment in artificial intelligence (AI) could enhance productivity and extend the economic cycle, although there are risks of misallocation of funds [3] - Fiscal and monetary policies are not overly tight, with significant fiscal easing being implemented since 2010 [3] - Tariffs are causing macroeconomic fluctuations, but high nominal growth may continue to benefit risk assets [4] Group 3 - Inflation-driven growth may lead to rising interest rates, particularly if governments continue to accumulate deficits without addressing debt through high inflation [4] - The bond market may eventually require higher risk compensation for fiscal policies, potentially steepening the yield curve [4] - Investors should prepare for a shift from the current economic environment by diversifying portfolios and ensuring flexibility to capture investment opportunities [4]

Group 1 - The Thai government is preparing a series of measures to mitigate the impact of US tariffs and enhance national competitiveness [1] - Proposed measures include stimulus initiatives, accelerated public investment budget disbursement for infrastructure projects, and tax reduction policies to boost domestic consumption [1] - The government plans to allocate a budget fund of 100 billion Thai Baht to support various projects [1] Group 2 - Tax measures will be implemented to help businesses reduce costs and increase liquidity, such as speeding up export tax refunds and extending tax payment deadlines for affected companies [1] - Regulatory reforms are planned, including modifications to Thai laws regarding import tariffs on US goods and adjustments to import quotas and health standards [1] - Structural regulatory reforms will aim to improve the investment environment by removing unnecessary licenses, updating labor and investment laws, and expanding digital systems [1]

Summary of Iron Ore Market Analysis Industry Overview - The analysis focuses on the iron ore market, specifically the pricing and demand dynamics in China, which is a major consumer of iron ore [2][3][5]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Current Pricing Trends**: The spot price for 62% Fe iron ore has decreased to $99 per ton from $105 per ton in late July, with expectations for prices to remain in the $95-100 per ton range for the remainder of Q3 [2][3][5]. 2. **Fundamental Support**: While consumption is expected to provide a floor at $95 per ton, the anticipated disappointment from stimulus measures and anti-innovation policies is likely to exert downward pressure on prices [2][3][5]. 3. **Future Price Forecast**: The forecast indicates a decline in iron ore prices to $90 per ton by the end of 2025, driven by weakening Chinese consumption and an increase in low-cost supply [2][3][16]. 4. **Stimulus Measures**: The July Politburo meeting did not announce major new stimulus, aligning with low expectations. Incremental easing may occur only if hard data shows significant growth headwinds in H2 [6][15]. 5. **Steel Demand from Property Sector**: No significant increase in steel demand from the property sector is expected due to a declining population, slower urbanization, and reduced demolition demand [7][8]. 6. **Infrastructure Sector Investment**: Although there is a positive growth expectation for steel demand in the infrastructure sector, recent investments are viewed as strategic rather than indicative of a cyclical recovery [8]. 7. **Production and Capacity Dynamics**: The weak labor market limits the potential for large-scale production cuts, and while steel production is expected to decline in H2, this is attributed to lower demand rather than mandated cuts [15][16]. 8. **Steelmaking Margins**: Steelmaking margins have improved but are expected to narrow due to rising coking coal prices and pressure on domestic steel prices, which may impact iron ore prices [15][16]. 9. **Supply Dynamics**: Global iron ore shipments are recovering, with Brazilian shipments up 2% year-over-year in July and Australian shipments up 5% year-over-year [34][36]. Additional Important Insights - **Long Steel Demand**: Long steel apparent demand is currently in line with last year but remains 36% below the 2016-2023 average, indicating a significant decline in demand [11][66]. - **Inventory Levels**: Mills' inventory of imported iron ore has returned to last year's levels, suggesting stable supply dynamics despite fluctuations in demand [28][30]. - **Market Positioning**: Managed money net positioning has shifted to a marginally long position, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [21]. This comprehensive analysis highlights the complexities of the iron ore market, emphasizing the interplay between demand, supply, and policy measures that will shape future pricing and market dynamics.

Economic Growth and Policy Outlook - The economic growth in the first half of the year exceeded expectations due to proactive policies and early implementation of consumption-boosting measures like trade-in programs [1][8] - There is no significant need for large-scale stimulus policies in the short term, as the foundation for economic growth has been established [8] Real Estate Market Trends - Real estate market indicators are showing a downward trend, with new residential sales area down 3.5% and sales value down 5.5% compared to the same period last year [3] - The prices of new residential properties have also entered a downward phase, particularly in major cities where second-hand housing prices have declined since April [3][10] Policy Direction for Real Estate - The focus remains on stabilizing the real estate market, with policies aimed at "stopping the decline and stabilizing" being crucial [7] - Future policies may include measures for old housing renovations, but significant unexpected stimulus is unlikely [7] Consumer Behavior and Investment Insights - The company suggests that first-time homebuyers should consider purchasing but be mindful of opportunity costs, while real estate investors should focus on areas with increasing population density [7] - Historically, real estate has outperformed A-shares, driven by urbanization and population growth, despite current market adjustments [11]

Group 1: Stock Strategy - The company suggests maintaining a defensive stance and focusing on bottom-up earnings, as the Chinese market showed mixed performance in Q2 2025 after a strong Q1 [2] - Investors are less concerned about geopolitical tensions and have low expectations for large-scale stimulus policies, but believe China will solidify its economic growth and market performance [2] - The company plans to avoid sectors heavily reliant on policy stimulus or exports in Q3 2025, favoring industries with better earnings momentum [2] Group 2: Market Performance - In Q1 2025, the MSCI China Index rose by 15%, outperforming global markets, but only increased by 0.7% in Q2, lagging behind global indices such as Nasdaq (+17.7%) and Nikkei 225 (+18.1%) [3] - The current P/E ratio of the MSCI China Index is 11.4, close to its long-term average, with healthcare (+11.5%), financials (+11.1%), and information technology (+9.5%) performing best, while consumer discretionary (-11.2%), real estate (-3.1%), and consumer staples (-1.6%) lagged [3] Group 3: Macro Environment - The macroeconomic environment shows signs of weakness, with no strong stimulus and a slight increase in credit growth from 8.0% in 2024 to 8.7% in May 2025, but a decline in loan growth from 7.0% to 6.7% [4] - The real estate market showed some recovery in late 2024 to early 2025 but declined again in Q2 2025, with signs of weakness in trade, industrial profits, PPI, and fixed asset investment [4] Group 4: Investment Preferences - The company favors domestic demand-driven sectors such as internet and financial services, while the internet sector showed mixed performance in Q2, with entertainment outperforming e-commerce [5] - Banks and brokerages are included in the top 10 list for their potential to provide better downside protection [6] - The company has upgraded the rating for technology hardware and continues to favor the gold sector [7] - Due to profit risks from regulatory crackdowns, the company has downgraded the liquor sector to the bottom 10 for reduction, while remaining cautious on real estate, utilities, and coal sectors [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [2][22]. Core Insights - The report highlights a continued weakness in fixed asset investment, with a need for stimulus policies to take effect [2]. - The overall industry performance shows a weekly decline of 2.24%, underperforming against major indices [3][4]. - Key statistics from January to May 2025 indicate a year-on-year increase in total fixed asset investment of 3.7%, with manufacturing investment up by 8.5% and infrastructure investment (including all sectors) up by 10.4% [10][11]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The construction industry experienced a weekly decline of 2.24%, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index which fell by 0.51% [3]. - The best-performing sub-sectors for the week were state-owned enterprises in infrastructure, with declines of 1.54% [4]. Key Company Developments - 中工国际 signed a business contract for a 500,000-ton soda ash plant project in Kazakhstan, valued at $337 million, representing 19.8% of its 2024 revenue [12]. - 中国化学 reported a total of 150.8 billion yuan in new contracts signed from January to May 2025, a decrease of 9.92% year-on-year [13]. Investment Analysis - The report suggests that the overall industry remains weak, but regional investments may gain momentum as national strategic layouts deepen. Recommended low-valuation state-owned enterprises include 中国化学, 中国中铁, and 中国铁建, while private enterprises like 志特新材 and 鸿路钢构 are also highlighted [2][10].

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) acknowledges the side effects of stimulus policies and will focus more on their impact on financial stability [1] Group 1 - The ECB's Vice President, Luis de Guindos, stated that the bank has recognized the adverse effects of its stimulus measures [1] - There is a shift in focus towards understanding how these policies affect financial stability [1] - The ECB aims to balance economic support with the need to maintain financial stability [1]