Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut marks a shift in policy, leading to expectations of a weaker US dollar and potential passive appreciation of the Renminbi against the dollar [1][2] - The offshore Renminbi has recently strengthened, breaking the 7.10 mark against the dollar, reaching its highest level since November of the previous year [1][2] - Market experts suggest that the Renminbi's rise is driven by multiple factors, including a weak US dollar index and strong expectations for the Renminbi's middle price against the dollar [1][2] Group 2 - The Renminbi has experienced significant fluctuations this year, initially depreciating but stabilizing and appreciating since April, nearing the critical psychological level of "7" [2][3] - Analysts predict that the Renminbi will continue to strengthen due to the Fed's anticipated further rate cuts and the overall depreciation trend of the dollar [2][3] - The influx of foreign capital into China is contributing to the Renminbi's appreciation, alongside the weak performance of the dollar [2][4] Group 3 - The future trajectory of the Renminbi is expected to remain strong, influenced by the Fed's rate cuts and the impact of US economic policies [3][4] - Analysts emphasize the importance of monitoring the dollar's performance post-rate cut and the potential for the Renminbi to maintain a stable relationship with the dollar [3][4] - The overall economic environment, including external pressures on exports and domestic policy adjustments, will play a crucial role in supporting the Renminbi's value [4]

北京时间9月18日凌晨，美联储宣布降息25个基点至4.00%~4.25% ，并暗示年内或再降两次。 市场此前对包括美联储降息等在内的各类美元利空因素已有所消化，从当日表现来看，人民币汇率并未 出现大幅波动。人民币对美元中间价报7.1085，较前一日下调72个基点；早间，离岸人民币对美元汇率 上扬，盘中再度升破7.10关口。 回顾今年以来，人民币汇率呈复杂波动，年初低位反弹，4月波动企稳，8月下旬大幅升值。 市场分析，美联储降息、跨境资金流动改善、人民币中间价调控等因素促使人民币升值。专家认为，未 来人民币汇率将稳中有升，破"7"仍需更多催化 。 多因素影响人民币升值 近期，随着美联储降息预期持续升温，部分全球主要资产价格已率先作出反应。人民币汇率已在一定程 度上对美联储降息预期作出反应。 今年以来，人民币汇率呈现出复杂的波动态势。年初从7.3关口上方波动回升，在4月初经历波动后迅速 企稳，进入8月下旬，人民币对美元汇率结束两个月的低波运行，出现较大幅度升值。 相比在岸人民币对美元汇率，离岸人民币对美元更多反映国际投资者预期。继9月17日后，18日早间， 离岸人民币对美元汇率上扬，盘中再度升破7.10关口。 东 ...

盘中再度升破7.10关口 北京时间9月18日凌晨，美联储宣布降息25个基点至4.00%~4.25% ，并暗示年内或再降两次。 市场此前对包括美联储降息等在内的各类美元利空因素已有所消化，从当日表现来看，人民币汇率并未 出现大幅波动。人民币对美元中间价报7.1085，较前一日下调72个基点；早间，离岸人民币对美元汇率 上扬，盘中再度升破7.10关口。 回顾今年以来，人民币汇率呈复杂波动，年初低位反弹，4月波动企稳，8月下旬大幅升值。 市场分析，美联储降息、跨境资金流动改善、人民币中间价调控等因素促使人民币升值。专家认为，未 来人民币汇率将稳中有升，破"7"仍需更多催化 。 多因素影响人民币升值 近期，随着美联储降息预期持续升温，部分全球主要资产价格已率先作出反应。人民币汇率已在一定程 度上对美联储降息预期作出反应。 今年以来，人民币汇率呈现出复杂的波动态势。年初从7.3关口上方波动回升，在4月初经历波动后迅速 企稳，进入8月下旬，人民币对美元汇率结束两个月的低波运行，出现较大幅度升值。 相比在岸人民币对美元汇率，离岸人民币对美元更多反映国际投资者预期。继9月17日后，18日早间， 离岸人民币对美元汇率上扬，盘中 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut to the federal funds rate, bringing it to a target range of 4.00% to 4.25% [2][3] - This marks the first rate cut since 2025 and follows a series of cuts totaling 100 basis points in 2024 [2] - The decision was largely driven by a weak labor market overshadowing mild inflation, prompting the Fed to take "preventive" measures [2][3] Group 2: Market Reactions - Financial markets had already priced in the rate cut, leading to a relatively calm response with mixed performances in major U.S. stock indices [3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield and the dollar index experienced slight rebounds post-announcement, while gold futures saw a decline of over 0.8% [3] Group 3: Impact on China's Monetary Policy - The Fed's rate cut reduces external constraints on China's monetary policy, providing greater operational space [4] - Experts suggest that China's monetary policy will remain focused on domestic economic conditions, with no immediate urgency for rate cuts [4][5] Group 4: Currency and Capital Flows - The narrowing interest rate differential between China and the U.S. is expected to alleviate capital outflow pressures, creating a better environment for supportive monetary policies in China [4][5] - The Fed's actions may also facilitate foreign exchange management policies aimed at attracting cross-border capital inflows [5] Group 5: Stock and Bond Market Outlook - The impact of the Fed's rate cut on China's stock market is viewed as neutral, with A-shares expected to maintain an upward trend due to improved sentiment and policy support [6][7] - The bond market is anticipated to show limited reaction, with domestic policies likely to dictate market movements rather than following the Fed's lead [7] Group 6: Gold Market Prospects - Despite short-term fluctuations, gold is expected to maintain a long-term upward trend, driven by its status as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical tensions [6][7] - Year-to-date, gold prices have surged approximately 40%, reflecting strong market interest [7]

全球金融市场迎重磅事件！北京时间9月18日凌晨，美联储议息会议决议公布，降息25基点，符合市场 预期。这是美联储2025年第一次降息，也是继2024年三次降息后再次降息。 复盘过往，在美联储宽松货币政策影响下，A股最为受益，中国债市走牛，人民币汇率有望升值。不过 从当日表现来看，未出现大幅波动。分析人士认为，美联储重启降息周期，也使得我国货币政策空间进 一步打开。在应对美联储政策外溢效应方面，同时应保持定力，坚持"以我为主"。 今年首次降息 一如市场预期，美联储降息25基点。当地时间9月17日，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调到4% —4.25%之间的水平。美联储主席鲍威尔表示，当前劳动力市场活力不足且略显疲软，降息旨在提振劳 动力市场。 这是美联储今年以来的首次降息。9个月时间，也是一场关于通胀预期与经济数据的博弈。2025年上半 年，美联储历次议息会议将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%—4.5%之间不变，多名官员强调"在降 息之前，需要看到通胀进一步下降的证据"。到6月，美联储内部意见分歧明显，联邦公开市场委员会会 议纪要显示，19名官员中只有10人预测年底前至少降息两次，7人不降息，2人只降息一 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25% on September 17 [1] - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets reacted positively, with all three major indices turning red, and the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index rising over 4% [1] - Over 2100 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets saw gains [1] Group 2 - The semiconductor industry chain experienced significant gains, with companies like SMIC and Haiguang Information both rising over 6% and reaching historical highs [2] - Other semiconductor stocks such as Ruixin Micro and Huicheng Shares saw increases of over 10% [2][5] - The Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index rose over 3%, with constituent stocks like Zhongwei Company and Haiguang Information increasing by over 8% and 7% respectively [3] Group 3 - The Hang Seng Index surpassed the 27,000-point mark, reaching its highest level since July 2021 [4]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint The foreign exchange market in August 2025 showed stable trading conditions, with a slight year-on-year decline in average daily trading volume. The US dollar index weakened, while the Chinese yuan accelerated its appreciation. The domestic foreign exchange differential turned positive, indicating strong selling pressure towards the end of the month. The options market reflected a rising short-term appreciation expectation for the yuan, and the narrowing of the US-China interest rate differential led to a significant increase in long-term swap points. Group 1: Foreign Exchange Market Performance - The average daily trading volume in the interbank foreign exchange market was $191.86 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3% and a month-on-month decrease of 7.1% [2] - The average daily trading volume for the yuan was $136.03 billion, down 9.3% year-on-year and 7.7% month-on-month [2] Group 2: US Dollar and Yuan Exchange Rates - The US dollar index fell from around 100.25 to 98.72, closing at 97.7710, marking a 2.29% depreciation for the month [3] - The yuan's central parity rate appreciated significantly, reaching 7.1030 by the end of the month, the highest since November 2024, with an onshore yuan closing at 7.1330, appreciating 0.83% for the month [4] Group 3: Foreign Exchange Differential - The domestic foreign exchange differential shifted from negative to positive, with the average differential for the month at -28 basis points, and the maximum differential recorded at -97 basis points [5] - The onshore yuan appreciated by 1.02% against the offshore yuan by the end of the month [5] Group 4: Options Market Activity - The average daily trading volume in the yuan foreign exchange options market was $5.83 billion, down 22.5% month-on-month [6] - The implied volatility for the yuan showed signs of rising short-term appreciation expectations, with the 1-month ATM implied volatility rebounding to 2.86% by month-end [6] Group 5: Interest Rate Differentials and Swap Points - The 10-year US Treasury yield decreased to 4.23%, leading to a narrowing of the US-China interest rate differential to -239 basis points, a reduction of 32 basis points from the previous month [7] - The 1-year swap points rose significantly to -1583 basis points, marking a 232 basis point increase, the highest since March 2023 [8] Group 6: Dollar Liquidity and Interest Rates - The dollar liquidity remained loose, with the SOFR fluctuating around 4.34% throughout the month [9] - The domestic dollar borrowing rates showed a slight upward trend, with the overnight borrowing rate ending at 4.28% [10]

（责任编辑：蔡情） 中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，2025年9月18日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为：1 美元对人民币7.1085元，1欧元对人民币8.4025元，100日元对人民币4.8396元，1港元对人民币0.91419 元，1英镑对人民币9.6899元，1澳大利亚元对人民币4.7292元，1新西兰元对人民币4.2172元，1新加坡 元对人民币5.5611元，1瑞士法郎对人民币9.0161元，1加拿大元对人民币5.1619元，人民币1元对1.1275 澳门元，人民币1元对0.59009马来西亚林吉特，人民币1元对11.7952俄罗斯卢布，人民币1元对2.4463南 非兰特，人民币1元对194.38韩元，人民币1元对0.51668阿联酋迪拉姆，人民币1元对0.52778沙特里亚 尔，人民币1元对46.3970匈牙利福林，人民币1元对0.50637波兰兹罗提，人民币1元对0.8883丹麦克朗， 人民币1元对1.3067瑞典克朗，人民币1元对1.3801挪威克朗，人民币1元对5.81058土耳其里拉，人民币1 元对2.5774墨西哥比索，人民币1元对4.4721泰铢。 中国经济网北京9月18日讯 今 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 0.25 percentage point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut of the year and a resumption of the easing cycle since December of the previous year [1][2] - The decision to lower rates comes amid signs of slowing economic activity, with employment growth decelerating and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, although it remains low [2][3] - The Fed's statement removed previous language indicating that labor market conditions were solid, reflecting a shift in focus towards employment risks [2] Group 2 - Following the rate cut announcement, the U.S. dollar index fell to 96.22, the lowest level since February 2022, while gold prices surged, briefly exceeding $3,700 per ounce [1][7] - Market expectations suggest that the Fed may lower rates further, with predictions of two additional cuts in 2025 and a potential reduction to around 3% in the future [5][6] - Financial institutions anticipate further rate cuts in October and December, with some predicting a total reduction of 100 basis points by January [6] Group 3 - The Fed's decision has implications for global monetary policy, potentially opening up space for other central banks to ease their policies as well [6] - The announcement led to a mixed reaction in the U.S. stock market, with the Dow Jones index rising slightly while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices experienced declines [9] - The yield curve for U.S. Treasury bonds shifted downward following the rate cut, with expectations of positive excess returns for 10-year bonds [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points has significant implications for international financial markets, leading to a decline in the US dollar and an increase in gold prices [1][3][12]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Rate Cut - On September 17, the Federal Open Market Committee announced a reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 4%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut of the year and a resumption of the easing cycle since December of the previous year [2][3]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the US dollar index fell to 96.22, the lowest level since February 2022, while spot gold prices surged above $3700 per ounce [1][3][12]. - The decline in the dollar and the rise in gold prices reflect market adjustments to the new monetary policy stance [1][12]. Economic Indicators - The FOMC noted a slowdown in economic activity, with employment growth weakening and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, although it remains low [6]. - Inflation rates have risen and are maintained at slightly elevated levels, prompting the Fed to adjust its policy to support maximum employment and a 2% inflation target [6]. Future Rate Expectations - Predictions suggest that the Fed may lower rates further, potentially reaching a neutral level of around 3% [3][10]. - The dot plot indicates that most Fed officials expect two more rate cuts in 2025, with varying opinions on the timing and extent of future cuts [9][10]. Global Monetary Policy Impact - The Fed's easing stance may influence other central banks to adopt similar policies, as seen with the Bank of Canada also cutting rates by 25 basis points [10]. - Analysts believe that the Fed's actions could create favorable external conditions for domestic monetary policy easing in other countries, including China [10]. Financial Market Implications - The announcement of the rate cut led to a mixed response in US equity markets, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices experiencing declines, while the Dow Jones index saw a slight increase [14]. - The yield curve for US Treasury bonds shifted downward, indicating expectations of lower interest rates in the future [12].