长沙市住房城乡建设局房地产市场监管处发布《关于进一步优化房地产发展措施的通知》。其中提到， 强化住房公积金支持。生育二孩、三孩及以上的家庭在本市购买首套或第二套自住房，且为新建商品房 的，最高贷款额度在本市现行最高贷款额度基础上分别提高20%、30%。家庭在本市购买首套自住房， 且为新建商品房的，可申请购房提取公积金，同时可申请公积金贷款。 ...

智通财经7月14日电，长沙市住房城乡建设局房地产市场监管处发布《关于进一步优化房地产发展措施 的通知》。其中提到，鼓励"以旧换新"。对本市家庭或个人出售自有住，并于一年内在本市重新购买新 建商品住房，且完成网签合同备案的，按新房交易总价的1%给予购房补贴，单套补贴金额最高不超过3 万元。 长沙发布《关于进一步优化房地产发展措施的通知》 ...

Core Insights - The Beijing second-hand housing market is showing signs of recovery due to a series of policy measures aimed at reducing down payment ratios, lowering mortgage rates, and optimizing housing provident funds [1][5][7] - In June, the transaction volume of second-hand residential properties in Beijing increased by 1% year-on-year, marking the ninth consecutive month of growth [1][3] - The cumulative transaction volume for the first half of the year saw an 18.4% year-on-year increase, with June alone recording 15,139 transactions, a 6% month-on-month increase [3] Policy Impact - A combination of demand-side relaxation and supply-side optimization policies has been implemented in Beijing, contributing to the market's recovery [5] - The interest rate for personal housing provident fund loans has been reduced, with the first loan rate for over five years now at 2.6%, resulting in a monthly payment reduction of 133 yuan for a 1 million yuan loan over 30 years [5][6] - Families with multiple children can now have their loan limits increased by 40,000 yuan, allowing for a maximum loan of 1.6 million yuan, further lowering the cost of homeownership [6] Market Dynamics - The "Good House" policy has not only improved the quality of new homes but has also increased the willingness of buyers to upgrade their residences [6] - There is a notable increase in transactions for second-hand homes priced between 6 million and 10 million yuan, driven by policy effects [6] - The new policy allows buyers to simultaneously apply for provident fund loans and withdraw funds for down payments, effectively easing the financial burden on buyers [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that new and second-hand housing transactions are slowing down year-on-year, indicating a need for continued policy support to stimulate demand [4][6] - The Beijing government is actively optimizing real estate policies to enhance housing supply and improve living conditions for residents [3][8] Summary by Sections Policy Tracking - On July 1, the Beijing government held a meeting to discuss advancing housing policies, emphasizing a multi-supplier and multi-channel housing supply system [3][8] - The focus is on improving the quality of housing and ensuring adequate land supply near transportation hubs and employment centers [3][8] Transaction Data - In June, Beijing's second-hand housing transactions reached 16,800 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.3% but a slowdown compared to previous months [4][6] - For new homes, the transaction area in 30 major cities was 2.63 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 20.8% [5][9] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading real estate companies with strong land acquisition capabilities and reasonable land reserves, such as Poly Developments [6][15] - It also recommends attention to major intermediary firms benefiting from active second-hand housing transactions, like I Love My Home [6][15]

Core Viewpoint - The Wuhan Municipal Housing and Urban Renewal Bureau has announced an extension of certain real estate policy deadlines to promote stable and healthy development in the local real estate market [1] Group 1: Policy Extension - The deadline for the policy regarding the optimization of new residential property project approval services has been extended to December 31, 2025 [1] - From October 1, 2024, to December 31, 2025, purchasing new residential properties in Wuhan will qualify as a first home for families, allowing for a full rebate on the paid deed tax [1] - For families purchasing a second home, a 50% rebate on the paid deed tax will be provided [1]

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of real estate companies in the first half of 2025 shows signs of stabilization, with nearly 45% of the top 100 companies experiencing year-on-year growth, although challenges remain due to buyer confidence and inventory pressures [1][9][13]. Group 1: Sales Performance - The cumulative sales amount of the top 100 real estate companies from January to May 2025 was 13,137.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 7% year-on-year, while the total sales amount was 14,113 billion yuan, down 8.4% [3]. - The threshold for the top 10 companies in terms of total sales increased to 43.26 billion yuan, an 8.1% rise year-on-year, contrasting with a 13.1% decrease in the threshold for the top 20 companies, which fell to 15.15 billion yuan [4]. - Among the top 100 companies, 45% reported year-on-year growth, with 20 companies achieving growth rates exceeding 30% [9]. Group 2: Company Classification and Performance - In the top 100 companies, there are 47 private enterprises, a decrease of one compared to the entire year of 2024. Only one private company is in the top 10, indicating a trend where capital favors state-owned and large enterprises amid ongoing liquidity crises for many private firms [6]. - The performance of state-owned enterprises is notably stronger, with 70% of central enterprises and 53% of state-owned enterprises reporting growth, compared to only 38% of mixed-ownership companies and 32% of private companies [9]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The market is in a phase of bottoming out, with local policies being optimized and some restrictions being eased in key cities, signaling a potential stabilization in the real estate market [13]. - Despite the positive signals, challenges remain as buyer confidence is still recovering, and companies face increasing inventory pressures, necessitating proactive measures in marketing and product innovation to capture market opportunities [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: The rebar futures market rose slightly. The May steel market was in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is expected that the short - term rebar futures will mainly operate in a low - level consolidation [1]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore futures price rose. With supply decreasing and demand and inventory showing mixed trends, it is expected that the iron ore futures price will show a narrow - range oscillation [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures price rose. Affected by supply, demand, and policy expectations, it is expected that the short - term coking coal futures will oscillate [1]. - Coke: The coke futures price rose. Due to environmental protection and demand factors, it is expected that the short - term coke futures will oscillate [1]. - Manganese Silicon: The manganese silicon futures price strengthened. Driven by short - term market sentiment, the price center may move up, but it should be treated as a rebound [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures price strengthened. With limited fundamental improvement, the short - term price increase is driven by market sentiment and should be treated as a rebound [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The closing price of the rebar 2510 contract was 2990 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton or 0.71%. The spot price rose slightly, and the trading volume increased. From January to May, national fixed - asset investment increased by 3.7% year - on - year, with real estate investment down 10.7%, infrastructure investment up 5.6%, and manufacturing investment up 8.5%. In May, the production of crude steel, pig iron, and steel decreased or increased year - on - year, and the daily average production decreased month - on - month [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The closing price of the iron ore i2509 contract was 704.5 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan/ton or 0.2%. Port spot prices rose. In May, pig iron production decreased year - on - year. The global iron ore shipment volume decreased, the blast furnace operating rate decreased, and inventory increased [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of the coking coal 2509 contract was 795.5 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton or 2.71%. Some coal mines stopped production, and the market procurement sentiment was weak. It is in the seasonal demand off - season [1]. - **Coke**: The closing price of the coke 2509 contract was 1371 yuan/ton, up 21.5 yuan/ton or 1.59%. Environmental protection inspections were tightened, and coke enterprises' production enthusiasm declined. The blast furnace operating rate was stable, and the market had a downward expectation for future demand [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures price rose by 2.35%. The real estate market had positive signals, but the fundamental support was weak, and it should be treated as a rebound [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price rose by 2.04%. The market sentiment improved, but the fundamental drive was limited, and it should be treated as a rebound [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: Data on the contract spreads of steel, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon are provided, including the latest values and their month - on - month changes [4]. - **Basis**: Data on the basis of various varieties are provided, including the latest values and their month - on - month changes [4]. - **Spot Price**: The latest spot prices of various varieties in different regions and their month - on - month changes are provided [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: Data on the profits and spreads of various varieties are provided, including the latest values and their month - on - month changes [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: Charts show the closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [7][9][13][16]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts show the basis of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [19][20][23][25]. - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: Charts show the inter - period contract spreads of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [27][29][31][34][36][37][39]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spread**: Charts show the inter - variety contract spreads of main contracts, including the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, the ratio of rebar to coke, the ratio of coke to iron ore, the ratio of coking coal to coke, and the spread between manganese silicon and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [42][44][46]. - **Rebar Profit**: Charts show the main contract's coal - coke ratio, double - silicon spread, rebar's main contract's disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit from 2020 to 2025 [46][47][50]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Current Assistant Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and Director of Black Research. With nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [52]. - Zhang Xiaojin: Current Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute. With rich experience in the field of resource products [52]. - Liu Xi: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute. Good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [52]. - Zhang Chunjie: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute. With experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures trading [53].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing a downward trend in housing prices, with a need for more effective policies to stabilize market confidence and demand [1][9][10]. Group 1: Housing Price Trends - In May 2025, new residential sales prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with Shanghai increasing by 0.7% while Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen saw declines of 0.4%, 0.8%, and 0.4% respectively [3][4]. - The second-hand housing market in first-tier cities experienced a month-on-month price drop of 0.7%, with Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen declining by 0.8%, 0.7%, 0.8%, and 0.5% respectively [3][6]. - Year-on-year, new residential prices in first-tier cities fell by 1.7%, with Shanghai showing a 5.9% increase, while Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen saw declines of 4.3%, 5.8%, and 2.6% respectively [4][6]. Group 2: Market Analysis and Expert Opinions - Analysts suggest that the marginal effects of policies introduced since Q4 2024 are diminishing, leading to renewed risks of price declines in the housing market [1][9][10]. - Zhang Dawei emphasizes the need for more targeted real estate policies to stabilize market confidence, particularly in third- and fourth-tier cities [10][11]. - The market is expected to enter a seasonal downturn from June to August, with potential price adjustments exceeding those seen in April and May if no strong policies are implemented [10][14]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Zhang Bo predicts that despite the recent price fluctuations, the overall trend of stabilizing the market remains intact, with potential increases in transaction volumes in the second half of the year [12][13]. - The government is expected to introduce a series of policies aimed at stabilizing the market from various dimensions, including supply and demand, financial support, and market structure optimization [14].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is stabilizing and recovering due to various policy measures implemented this year, including the acquisition of idle land and properties, promotion of "good housing" construction, and optimization of housing provident fund loan policies [1][2]. Policy Optimization - A series of policies have contributed to the stability of the real estate market, with new residential property sales area from January to April reaching 28,262 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8%, which is a slight improvement compared to earlier months [2]. - Since May, multiple policies have been enacted, including the implementation of national standards for "good housing," interest rate cuts, and reductions in personal housing provident fund loan rates, which have boosted market confidence and reduced home-buying costs [2]. - Over 50 policies have been introduced nationwide to support the real estate market, although the efficiency of some policies still requires improvement [2]. Land and Project Assessment - The recent State Council meeting emphasized the importance of assessing the supply of land and ongoing projects, which is crucial for revitalizing existing resources and optimizing new land supply [3]. - This assessment will help identify bottlenecks in various stages such as land supply, development approvals, sales, and delivery, thereby guiding policy optimization [3]. Future Policy Directions - The State Council meeting outlined four key areas for future policy focus: stabilizing expectations, activating demand, optimizing supply, and mitigating risks [4]. - Collaboration among multiple departments is necessary to enhance the systematic effectiveness of policy implementation [4]. - Promoting housing consumption has become a vital aspect of stabilizing the real estate market, with cities like Guangzhou proposing to optimize real estate policies by removing purchase restrictions and lowering loan down payment ratios [5]. Demand Activation and Supply Optimization - Future efforts to activate demand may include improving housing vouchers, optimizing provident fund loans, and increasing home purchase subsidies [5]. - The supply of high-quality housing is expected to stimulate demand for improved housing, with supportive policies for "good housing" construction anticipated to take effect [5].

Group 1 - Guangzhou has optimized its real estate policies by canceling purchase restrictions, sales restrictions, and price limits, while also lowering down payment requirements and interest rates [1][2] - The city plans to invest 100 billion yuan in the renovation of old urban villages and upgrade over 9,000 old elevators, indicating a significant commitment to improving housing conditions [2] - The removal of restrictions is seen as a way to facilitate the exchange of housing among residents, particularly for those who have been unable to buy due to previous limitations [7] Group 2 - The current real estate policy is viewed as the most lenient in history, prompting potential buyers to consider purchasing now as it is perceived to be a bottoming out of the market [5] - There are contrasting opinions on homeownership versus renting, with some arguing that owning a home provides a sense of security and belonging, while others highlight the financial burden of mortgage payments [11] - The discussion reflects a broader sentiment about the importance of housing stability for families and the potential impact on community dynamics [11]