Report Industry Investment Rating There is no relevant content provided in the report. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report anticipates the trend of various futures on October 29, 2025, with some futures expected to have a strong - side oscillation and others a weak - side oscillation. It also provides resistance and support levels for each futures contract [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market Forecast - **Strong - side Oscillation Futures**: IF2512, IH2512, IC2512, IM2512, T2512, TL2512, AU2512, AG2512, CU2512, AL2512, AO2601, LC2601, RB2601, HC2601, I2601, JM2601, FG601, SA601, V2601, M2601 are expected to have a strong - side oscillation, with specific resistance and support levels provided [2][3][4][6]. - **Weak - side Oscillation Futures**: SC2512, TA601, Y2601, P2601 are expected to have a weak - side oscillation, with corresponding resistance and support levels [6]. 2. Macro Information and Trading Tips - "The 14th Five - Year Plan" suggestions are released, aiming at economic growth, technological self - reliance, and further reform. It also promotes the development of strategic emerging industries [7]. - China and ASEAN sign the FTA 3.0 upgrade protocol, expanding cooperation in emerging fields [7]. - There will be a Sino - EU talk on rare earths this Thursday [8]. - China is committed to expanding high - level opening - up in the financial field [8]. - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy [8]. - Amendments to the Cybersecurity Law and the Environmental Protection Tax Law are passed [8]. - The number of overseas tourists handling tax - free shopping and the tax - refund amount have increased significantly [9]. - The U.S. government shutdown continues as the bill fails to pass the Senate [9]. - Japan plans to invest $550 billion in the U.S., with $100 billion for nuclear reactors [9]. - The U.S. and South Korea plan to cooperate in AI, quantum computing, and 6G [9]. - ADP will release weekly employment data [10]. 3. Commodity Futures Related Information - On October 28, international precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold down 1.28% and COMEX silver up 0.78%. Analysts expect gold prices to fall in the next three months [12]. - U.S. and Brent crude oil futures prices declined due to increased inventory and weak demand [12]. - Most London base metals rose on October 28 [13]. - The U.S. President nominates a new CFTC chairman [13]. - The Bank of Korea is considering buying gold [13]. - The on - shore RMB against the U.S. dollar rose, hitting a nearly one - year high [13]. - The U.S. dollar index declined, and most non - U.S. currencies rose [14]. 4. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast Stock Index Futures - On October 28, major stock index futures contracts showed a trend of opening low, rising and then falling. Short - term upward momentum weakened, and downward pressure increased slightly [14][15][16]. - It is expected that in October 2025, IF, IH will have a strong - side wide - range oscillation, while IC and IM will have a wide - range oscillation. On October 29, all four contracts are expected to have a strong - side oscillation [19][20]. Treasury Bond Futures - On October 28, the ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures contracts had a strong - side oscillation. The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net injection of funds [36][40]. - It is expected that on October 29, both the ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures contracts will have a strong - side oscillation [38][41]. Precious Metal Futures - On October 28, gold and silver futures contracts had a weak - side oscillation. It is expected that in October 2025, both will have a strong - side wide - range oscillation and reach new highs. On October 29, they are expected to have a strong - side oscillation [44][50]. Base Metal Futures - On October 28, copper, aluminum, and other base metal futures contracts generally showed a downward trend. It is expected that in October 2025, most will have a strong - side wide - range oscillation, while alumina will have a weak - side wide - range oscillation. On October 29, they are expected to have a strong - side oscillation [54][58][63]. Other Commodity Futures - On October 28, iron ore, coking coal, and other commodity futures contracts had different trends. It is expected that in October 2025, they will have different oscillations, and on October 29, most will have a strong - side oscillation, while crude oil, PTA, soybean oil, and palm oil will have a weak - side oscillation [81][85][97].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - After the high - level oscillation in September, the stock index is expected to enter a direction - selection stage again. The domestic liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and residents may increase their allocation of equity assets. With the Fed's interest rate cut and RMB appreciation, external funds are also expected to flow into the domestic market. In the fourth quarter, the market style may return to value and be more balanced compared to the third quarter [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices for IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 4648.40, 4634.80, 4604.00, and 4567.40 respectively, with increases of 68.60, 68.00, 62.40, and 66.80 and increases of 1.50%, 1.49%, 1.37%, and 1.48% respectively. The trading volumes were 24392.00, 74172.00, 14177.00, and 3440.00, and the open interest changes were - 2317.00, - 6793.00, - 1216.00, and 1074.00 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices for IH contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 3051.20, 3051.60, 3053.00, and 3049.20 respectively, with decreases of - 17.00, - 16.20, - 16.00, and - 18.80 and decreases of - 0.55%, - 0.53%, - 0.52%, and - 0.61% respectively. The trading volumes were 10401.00, 34831.00, 4435.00, and 1454.00, and the open interest changes were - 808.00, - 1601.00, 52.00, and - 68.00 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices for IC contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 7287.40, 7231.00, 7068.20, and 6886.60 respectively, with decreases of - 25.60, - 28.40, - 25.40, and - 20.20 and decreases of - 0.35%, - 0.39%, - 0.36%, and - 0.29% respectively. The trading volumes were 24174.00, 82049.00, 15658.00, and 4523.00, and the open interest changes were - 2679.00, - 6265.00, - 377.00, and - 112.00 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices for IM contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 7410.00, 7335.60, 7122.60, and 6907.20 respectively, with increases of 2.60, 3.00, 4.20, and 3.00 and increases of 0.04%, 0.04%, 0.06%, and 0.04% respectively. The trading volumes were 38819.00, 141946.00, 22315.00, and 8213.00, and the open interest changes were - 3501.00, - 1434.00, - 1256.00, and 1365.00 [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current values of inter - month spreads for IF (next month - current month), IH (next month - current month), IC (next month - current month), and IM (next month - current month) were - 13.60, 0.40, - 56.40, and - 74.40 respectively, compared to previous values of - 12.80, - 0.60, - 56.00, and - 76.80 [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **CSI 300 Index**: The previous value of the CSI 300 index was 4691.97, with a trading volume of 220.91 billion shares and a total trading value of 5715.63 billion yuan. The previous two - day value was 4716.02, with a trading volume of 262.20 billion shares and a total trading value of 6726.70 billion yuan. The decline was - 0.51% [1] - **SSE 50 Index**: The previous value of the SSE 50 index was 3050.42, with a trading volume of 54.63 billion shares and a total trading value of 1487.20 billion yuan. The previous two - day value was 3069.53, with a trading volume of 70.41 billion shares and a total trading value of 1852.95 billion yuan. The decline was - 0.62% [1] - **CSI 500 Index**: The previous value of the CSI 500 index was 7341.03, with a trading volume of 202.12 billion shares and a total trading value of 4220.69 billion yuan. The previous two - day value was 7379.39, with a trading volume of 232.05 billion shares and a total trading value of 4717.62 billion yuan. The decline was - 0.52% [1] - **CSI 1000 Index**: The previous value of the CSI 1000 index was 7479.22, with a trading volume of 251.80 billion shares and a total trading value of 4310.16 billion yuan. The previous two - day value was 7495.38, with a trading volume of 265.34 billion shares and a total trading value of 4581.70 billion yuan [1] - **Industry Performance**: The declines in energy, raw materials, industry, and optional consumption were - 0.86%, - 2.97%, - 0.31%, and - 0.06% respectively. For other industries like major consumption, medicine and health, real - estate finance, and information technology, the changes were 0.01%, - 1.61%, etc. [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - The previous values of the basis for CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 1000 futures contracts were provided, showing differences compared to the previous two - day values [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - Information on the previous values and changes of domestic indexes such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - Cap Board Index, and ChiNext Index, as well as overseas indexes like the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P Index, and DAX Index were presented [1] 5. Macroeconomic Information - The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal was released, with goals including economic growth in a reasonable range, increased total factor productivity, and higher resident consumption rates. It also proposed developing strategic emerging industries and key technology breakthroughs in certain fields. China and ASEAN signed the FTA 3.0 upgrade protocol. There are talks about a China - EU meeting on rare - earth issues. China is committed to opening up its financial sector [2] 6. Industry Information - The 11th batch of national drug procurement was successfully bid. The soybean area in China is expected to remain above 150 million mu for four consecutive years, and the number of breeding sows has decreased. A special campaign against live - streaming reward chaos was launched. The added value of the wholesale and retail industry increased by 5.6% in the first three quarters, and rural road construction progress and investment were reported [2] 7. Stock Index Views - U.S. stock indexes continued to rise, while the domestic stock index adjusted downward the previous day. The market turnover was 2.17 trillion yuan, and the margin trading balance increased. After the high - level oscillation in September, the stock index is expected to enter a direction - selection stage. The market style may return to value in the fourth quarter [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the Shanghai Composite Index failed to hold above 4000 points with a slight decline in trading volume, it is certain that the index will reach 4000 points. Considering the "15th Five-Year Plan" and the current market environment, the strategic value of the technology and military sectors is prominent. It is recommended to focus on these two core sectors and seize the opportunity to go long on stock index futures [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The full text of the "15th Five-Year Plan" proposal has been released, aiming for economic growth within a reasonable range, increased total factor productivity, and a significantly higher household consumption rate. It also aims to boost technological self - reliance, deepen reforms, and ensure synchronous growth of household income and economic growth, as well as labor compensation and labor productivity. The plan proposes to accelerate the development of strategic emerging industries and promote new economic growth points. It also plans to break through key core technologies in key areas and implement the "Artificial Intelligence +" action. Additionally, it aims to boost consumption and improve the capital market [1]. - The central bank governor stated that the moderately loose monetary policy will be implemented, and new policy measures will be studied and reserved to consolidate the positive momentum of the capital market and improve the market - stabilizing mechanism. Overseas, the three major US stock indexes closed higher [2]. Spot Market - A - share indexes rose and then fell. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.22% to 3988.22 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.15%. Most sector indexes declined, with national defense and military, transportation, and textile and apparel sectors leading the gains, while non - ferrous metals, beauty care, and steel sectors had the largest declines. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2 trillion yuan [2][13]. Futures Market - In the futures market, the basis of the current - month contracts of the four major stock index futures rebounded. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures decreased simultaneously [2][15]. Strategy - Focus on the technology and military sectors and seize the opportunity to go long on stock index futures [3].

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market experienced a pullback after a rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3988.22 points, down 0.22% [10][11] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13430.1 points, down 0.44%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.15% [11] - A total of 30 first-level industries saw 9 industries rise, with defense and military, as well as computer sectors leading the gains, while non-ferrous metals, steel, and construction faced significant declines [11][12] Overseas Market Overview - The U.S. stock market indices all closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.34% and the Nasdaq rising by 0.8% [2] - Notable performers included Nvidia, which rose nearly 5%, and Sherwin-Williams, which increased over 5% [2] Key Economic Data - From January to September, industrial enterprises above designated size in China achieved a total profit of 537.32 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.2% [21] - In September, profits for these enterprises increased by 21.6% year-on-year [22] - The demand for cold chain logistics in the food sector reached 1.173 billion tons in the third quarter, marking a year-on-year growth of 4.72% [22] Policy and Strategic Developments - The "14th Five-Year Plan" recommendations were fully released, emphasizing economic growth within a reasonable range, improvement in total factor productivity, and significant increases in resident consumption rates [12][14] - The plan advocates for the development of strategic emerging industries such as new energy, aerospace, and quantum technology, aiming to create new economic growth points [12][14] - It also calls for comprehensive implementation of the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative and measures to boost consumption [12][14]

Market Overview - On October 29, A-shares saw all three major indices rise, with the ChiNext Index increasing by over 1.5% [1] - Key sectors such as Hainan Free Trade Port, ultra-high voltage, copper-clad laminates, and energy storage remained active [1] ETF Performance - The newly listed Shanghai Stock Exchange 180 ETF (510670) experienced a slight increase, with top-performing holdings including Huaneng International, Industrial Fulian, TBEA, LONGi Green Energy, China Aluminum, and Top Group [1] - The Sci-Tech Innovation 50 ETF (159783) rose over 1% at one point, with leading stocks such as Canadian Solar, Sungrow Power Supply, Sanan Optoelectronics, Tigermed, and EVE Energy [1] Policy Insights - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China released suggestions for the 15th Five-Year Plan on October 28, emphasizing the cultivation of emerging and future industries [1] - Strategic emerging industry clusters such as new energy, new materials, aerospace, and low-altitude economy are prioritized for development [1] - The plan aims to enhance the inclusiveness and adaptability of capital market systems and improve the coordination between investment and financing functions [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In the stock index market, recent Sino-US economic and trade talks have had a positive outcome. Technology remains the main market trend, and the policy supports the capital market. The medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long on dips [2][4]. - In the bond market, the central bank's restart of bond trading is positive for the bond market in the short term. In the fourth quarter, the bond market is affected by fundamentals, fund fee regulations, and institutional allocation. It is expected to oscillate and recover [7]. - In the precious metals market, the decline in precious metal prices is a "correction in the upward trend." It is recommended to maintain a long - term view and allocate long positions on dips [9]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, most non - ferrous metals are expected to oscillate strongly due to factors such as supply disruptions and positive market sentiment [12][14][17][19]. - In the black building materials market, the long - term upward logic of steel prices remains intact, but the short - term demand is weak. For black building materials, it is recommended to look for opportunities to rebound on dips [35][46]. - In the energy and chemical market, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be temporarily observed, and oil is recommended to be low - bought and high - sold in a range [56][58]. - In the agricultural products market, different agricultural products have different trends. For example, the short - term pig price may rebound, but the medium - term is still under pressure [81]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - **Market Information**: The 14th Five - Year Plan proposes measures for key technology research, strategic investment plans in the US and Japan are announced, and some companies have good profit growth [2]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the Sino - US leaders' meeting at the end of the month. The technology sector is the main trend, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: Treasury bond futures prices change, the 14th Five - Year Plan focuses on boosting consumption, the Fed's interest - rate meeting is held, and the central bank conducts reverse repurchase operations [5][6]. - **Strategy**: The central bank's operation is positive for the bond market in the short term. The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover in the fourth quarter [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices fluctuate, the Fed's interest - rate meeting is approaching, and there are discussions about gold reserves in the Philippines and South Korea [8][9]. - **Strategy**: The decline in precious metal prices is a correction. It is recommended to allocate long positions on dips [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Information**: Copper prices first decline and then rise, LME and domestic inventories change, and the downstream procurement sentiment improves slightly [11]. - **Strategy**: Due to the expected interest - rate cut and tight supply, copper prices are expected to oscillate strongly [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices rise, inventory and trading volume change, and the downstream procurement willingness is weak [13]. - **Strategy**: Supply disruptions and positive market sentiment are expected to drive aluminum prices to oscillate strongly [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices decline slightly, inventory and basis change [15][16]. - **Strategy**: Due to factors such as inventory accumulation and structural risks, zinc prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [17]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices decline, inventory and basis change [18]. - **Strategy**: Due to factors such as inventory reduction and positive market sentiment, lead prices are expected to run strongly in the short term [19]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices decline sharply, and the cost and supply - demand situation of nickel - related products change [20]. - **Strategy**: Short - term observation is recommended. If the price drops enough, long positions can be considered [22]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices decline, inventory and supply - demand situation change [23]. - **Strategy**: Tin prices are expected to maintain high - level oscillations in the short term. It is recommended to observe [23]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: Carbonate lithium prices change, and the futures price declines slightly [24]. - **Strategy**: After continuous rises, the price is under pressure. Pay attention to supply elasticity and hedging pressure [25]. Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina prices decline, inventory and basis change [26]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe in the short term, paying attention to supply - side policies and the Fed's monetary policy [28]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices decline, inventory and raw material prices change [29]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe due to weak demand and falling raw material prices [30]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Cast aluminum alloy prices decline, inventory and trading volume change [31]. - **Strategy**: Positive factors such as cost support and supply tightening are expected to support prices [32]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Information**: Steel prices change, and inventory and trading volume change [34]. - **Strategy**: The long - term upward logic of steel prices remains, but the short - term demand is weak. Pay attention to Sino - US talks [35]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices rise, and inventory and basis change [36]. - **Strategy**: The demand for iron ore weakens, and the price is under pressure. It is expected to oscillate [37][38]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass and soda ash prices change, and inventory and trading volume change [39][41]. - **Strategy**: Glass prices are expected to oscillate widely, and soda ash prices are expected to consolidate narrowly [40][41]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices change, and the market is in an oscillating range [42]. - **Strategy**: They are likely to follow the black market. Pay attention to potential supply constraints [44][46]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon and polysilicon prices change, and inventory and supply - demand situation change [47][49]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate in the short term, and polysilicon's supply - demand pattern may improve [48][50]. Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices oscillate, and there are different views on supply and demand [52][53]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to close short - term long positions and observe. Partial hedging positions can be established [56]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil and refined oil prices rise, and inventory changes [57]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe in the short term and test OPEC's export - price support willingness [58]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices change, and inventory and basis change [59]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe due to factors such as slow import unloading and high inventory [60]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices change, and inventory and basis change [61]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe or consider long positions at low prices due to slow inventory accumulation and potential demand [63]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure benzene and styrene prices decline, and inventory and basis change [64]. - **Strategy**: Benzene prices may stop falling due to factors such as cost and inventory [65]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices decline, and inventory and supply - demand situation change [66]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short on rallies due to over - supply and weak demand [68]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices decline, and inventory and supply - demand situation change [69]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short on rallies due to expected inventory accumulation [70]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices change, and inventory and supply - demand situation change [71]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to potential production - cut signals and their impact on processing fees and prices [72]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: p - Xylene prices decline, and inventory and supply - demand situation change [73]. - **Strategy**: It mainly follows the oil price and is affected by PTA's production - cut expectations [74]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices decline, and inventory and demand change [75]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to maintain low - level oscillations due to factors such as high inventory and cost support [76]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices decline, and inventory and demand change [77]. - **Strategy**: Under the background of weak supply and demand, the price is under pressure due to high inventory [78]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices rise, and there are differences in price trends in different regions [80]. - **Strategy**: Short - term rebound, medium - term short positions can be established on rallies [81]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices are mostly stable, and the market supply and demand are balanced [82]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe as the spot price has limited upward space [83]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: CBOT soybean prices rise, and domestic soybean and meal inventories are high [84][85]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short on rallies due to high inventory and loose supply [86]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Oil prices decline, and palm oil production and export data change [87]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe and wait for clear production signals [88]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar prices rebound, and import control policies change [89][90]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short after the rebound weakens due to factors such as supply and import profit [91]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton prices oscillate, and the downstream demand is weak [92]. - **Strategy**: The upward space of cotton prices is limited due to weak fundamentals [93].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate as the market awaits the Fed's interest rate decision [2][4]. - Zinc prices will continue to oscillate [2][7]. - Overseas inventory reduction supports lead prices [2][10]. - Aluminum prices will continue to fluctuate, alumina will trade sideways in the short - term, and cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][12]. - Nickel prices will experience narrow - range fluctuations due to the game between smelting inventory accumulation and nickel ore concerns, and stainless steel has limited downside potential but lacks upward drivers [2][15]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 86,980 with a daily decline of 1.57%, and the night - session closing price was 87,910 with a 1.07% increase. The trading volume of the Shanghai copper index decreased by 808 to 396,365, and the open interest decreased by 18,012 to 595,121. The LME copper 3M electronic trading volume decreased by 2,744 to 21,767, and the open interest increased by 2,194 to 323,000. The Shanghai copper inventory increased by 454 to 35,846, and the LME copper inventory decreased by 1,400 to 134,575 [4]. - **News**: The market is waiting for the Fed's interest rate decision. Antofagasta's Q3 2025 copper production was 161,800 tons, a 1% quarter - on - quarter increase, and it expects annual production to be at the lower end of the 660,000 - 700,000 - ton range. Indonesia may allow Amman Mineral international to export copper concentrates. Trump overturned a pollution - prevention regulation on copper smelter emissions. Anglo American's Q3 copper production was 184,000 tons, up from 181,000 tons in the same period last year, but the cumulative production in the first three quarters decreased by 9% year - on - year to 526,000 tons [4][6]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of copper is 1 [6]. Zinc - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 22,310, a 0.25% decline, and the LME zinc 3M electronic closing price was 3,058.5, a 1.29% increase. The trading volume of the Shanghai zinc main contract increased by 8,676 to 128,753, and the LME zinc trading volume decreased by 721 to 10,796. The Shanghai zinc inventory increased by 2,547 to 68,271 tons, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,800 to 35,250 tons [7]. - **News**: The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposes measures for technological breakthroughs and economic development [8]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of zinc is 0 [9]. Lead - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17,355, a 0.94% decline, and the LME lead 3M electronic closing price was 2,023.5, a 0.35% increase. The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract decreased by 24,547 to 57,175, and the LME lead trading volume increased by 716 to 5,707. The LME lead inventory decreased by 2,700 to 229,675 tons [10]. - **News**: The market is waiting for the Fed's interest rate decision, and the "15th Five - Year Plan" was proposed [10]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lead is 0 [10]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 21,140, a 220 - point decline. The LME aluminum 3M closing price was 2,894, a 16 - point increase. The Shanghai alumina main contract closing price was 2,817, a 12 - point decline. The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20,575, a 140 - point decline [12]. - **News**: The "ADP National Employment Report" will launch weekly preliminary estimates, and the "15th Five - Year Plan" mentions "finance" 17 times [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all 0 [14]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 120,560, a 1,840 - point decline, and the stainless - steel main contract closing price was 12,750, a 65 - point decline. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract increased by 26,763 to 156,296, and the stainless - steel main contract trading volume decreased by 80,991 to 131,733 [15]. - **News**: Indonesia's forestry working group took over a 148 - hectare nickel - mining area of PT WedaBav Nickel, which is expected to affect nickel production by about 600 metal tons per month. China suspended a non - official subsidy for copper and nickel imports from Russia. Indonesia imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies. Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on China and export controls on "all key software" [15][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of nickel and stainless steel are both 0 [17].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Group 2: Core View - Zinc is expected to continue to fluctuate, and the zinc trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [1][3]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Prices**: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai zinc was 22,310 yuan/ton, down 0.25% from the previous day, while the closing price of the LME 3M electronic zinc contract was 3,058.5 dollars/ton, up 1.29% [1]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai zinc was 128,753 lots, an increase of 8,676 lots, and the trading volume of LME zinc was 10,796 lots, a decrease of 721 lots [1]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai zinc was 120,693 lots, a decrease of 491 lots, and the open interest of LME zinc was 222,508 lots, an increase of 264 lots [1]. - **Premiums and Discounts**: The premium of Shanghai 0 zinc was -45 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the LME CASH - 3M premium was 212.89 dollars/ton, up 25.52 dollars [1]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai zinc futures inventory was 68,271 tons, an increase of 2,547 tons, and LME zinc inventory was 35,250 tons, a decrease of 1,800 tons [1]. 2. News - The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposes to take extraordinary measures to achieve decisive breakthroughs in key core technologies in key areas, implement the "Artificial Intelligence +" action, and boost consumption. It also plans to layout future industries such as quantum technology, biomanufacturing, etc. [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, there are trend short positions in synthetic rubber, alumina, etc.; oscillating short - biased positions in liquefied petroleum gas, crude oil, etc.; oscillating positions in Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index Futures, apple, etc.; oscillating long - biased positions in some products; and trend long positions in none. Based on quantitative indicators, there are short - biased positions in sugar, hot - rolled coils, etc.; oscillating positions in Shanghai silver, palm oil, etc.; and long - biased positions in rebar, asphalt, etc. [2] - For the stock market, A - shares showed a pattern of rising and then falling. The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposes to develop strategic emerging industries, and the easing of Sino - US relations may boost risk appetite. The market expects an increase in monetary policy in the fourth quarter, and it is advisable to consider a strategy of buying on dips and pay attention to index rotation. [8] - For the bond market, as the implementation of increased monetary policy is approaching, bonds still have upward momentum. [9] - For the black market, steel and ore may continue to rebound in the short term but with limited space, and remain oscillating in the medium term; coking coal and coke may run strongly in the short term but are restricted by potential negative feedback risks; ferroalloys are still recommended to be short - biased on rallies in the medium term. [10][11][12] - For the non - ferrous and new materials market, it is advisable to wait and see for aluminum, short on rallies for alumina, hold short positions for zinc, and expect lithium carbonate to run strongly in the short term. Industrial silicon and polysilicon will run in a narrow range. [16][18][19] - For the agricultural products market, it is advisable to short on rallies for cotton, short - roll or wait and see for sugar, operate in an oscillating manner for eggs, expect apples to run strongly, be short - biased for near - term corn contracts and long - biased for far - term contracts, wait and see for jujubes, and short near - term contracts for live pigs. [22][24][25][27][29][30] - For the energy and chemical market, crude oil is likely to fall, fuel oil and asphalt will follow oil prices, plastics will run weakly, rubber will oscillate, methanol is recommended to be long - biased in small amounts after a rebound drive appears, caustic soda will be treated with an oscillating mindset, the polyester industry chain can be short - term long - biased, LPG may weaken relative to crude oil, paper pulp can be long - biased on dips, logs will be under pressure, urea will run weakly, and synthetic rubber will be short - biased in the short term. [32][33][34][37][41][43] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro News - The full text of the "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal is released, aiming for economic growth in a reasonable range, promoting the development of strategic emerging industries, and breaking through key core technologies. China and ASEAN sign the FTA 3.0 upgrade protocol. There will be a Sino - EU talk on rare earths. China will expand financial opening - up. The US Senate fails to pass a bill to end the government shutdown. Japan plans to invest $550 billion in the US. ADP will launch weekly employment data. The Bank of Korea may buy gold. [4][5][6] Stock Index Futures - A - shares rise and then fall. The "15th Five - Year Plan" promotes the development of emerging industries. Sino - US talks may boost risk appetite. The market expects an increase in monetary policy in the fourth quarter. It is advisable to consider a strategy of buying on dips and pay attention to index rotation. [8] Treasury Bond Futures - After the tax period, the capital market eases. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy. Bonds still have upward momentum. [9] Steel and Ore - Policy is favorable to market sentiment. In the short term, pay attention to Sino - US relations; in the medium term, focus on the Central Political Bureau Meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference. Demand for building materials is weak, while demand for coils is okay. Iron - making output remains high, and steel mills' profits are low. Steel prices may rebound in the short term but with limited space and remain oscillating in the medium term. [10] Coking Coal and Coke - Prices may run strongly in the short term, but are affected by mine inspections and downstream iron - making output. Supply may shrink in the short term, and demand supports prices, but potential negative feedback risks from weakening steel demand and shrinking steel mill profits will restrict the rebound height. [11] Ferroalloys - The over - supply situation is difficult to reverse in the medium term. It is recommended to be short - biased on rallies. The volatility is low, and it may run in a narrow range. [12] Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash oscillates, and glass is relatively strong. It is advisable to wait and see. Soda ash supply returns to a high level, and new capacity is yet to be put into production. Glass prices are stable, and mid - stream inventory needs to be digested. [14] Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - For aluminum, it is advisable to wait and see as it may follow the upward trend. For alumina, short on rallies due to over - supply. For zinc, hold short positions as domestic inventory increases. Lithium carbonate will run strongly in the short term. Industrial silicon and polysilicon will run in a narrow range. [16][18][19] Agricultural Products - For cotton, short on rallies due to increasing supply and weak demand. For sugar, short - roll or wait and see because of global over - supply. For eggs, operate in an oscillating manner as the "de - capacity" process starts but the supply - demand pattern is still loose. Apples will run strongly. For corn, be short - biased for near - term contracts and long - biased for far - term contracts. Wait and see for jujubes. For live pigs, short near - term contracts as supply and demand are in a stalemate. [22][24][25][27][29][30] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil is likely to fall due to over - supply. Fuel oil and asphalt will follow oil prices. Plastics will run weakly. Rubber will oscillate. Methanol is recommended to be long - biased in small amounts after a rebound drive appears. Caustic soda will be treated with an oscillating mindset. The polyester industry chain can be short - term long - biased. LPG may weaken relative to crude oil. Paper pulp can be long - biased on dips. Logs will be under pressure. Urea will run weakly. Synthetic rubber will be short - biased in the short term. [32][33][34][37][41][43]

Group 1 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the promotion of emerging industries such as quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen energy, nuclear fusion, brain-computer interfaces, embodied intelligence, and sixth-generation mobile communication as new economic growth points [2] - The revised Cybersecurity Law will take effect on January 1, 2026, supporting AI development and enhancing risk assessment and regulation [2] - The Financial Regulatory Bureau supports domestic insurance companies to issue "catastrophe bonds" in the Hong Kong market, which are linked to natural disaster risks [2] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China reported that it will implement a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic recovery, ensuring that social financing and money supply growth align with economic growth targets [2] - The latest tax data shows a 229.8% year-on-year increase in the number of outbound travelers claiming tax refunds from January to September, with a 97.4% increase in refund amounts [2] - The digital RMB ecosystem has been preliminarily established, with a cumulative transaction amount of 14.2 trillion yuan by the end of September 2025 [2] Group 3 - Ganfeng Lithium reported a third-quarter revenue of 6.249 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.10%, and a net profit of 557 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 364.02% [3][8] - The public fund industry saw significant growth in the third quarter, with an increase of 2.23 trillion yuan, bringing the total scale to over 35 trillion yuan [3][8] - The China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 upgrade covers nine areas, including digital economy and green economy [2]