Group 1 - The Securities ETF (512880) experienced a pullback of over 0.6%, but saw a net inflow of over 150 million yuan in the past five days, supported by both policy and liquidity [1] - The People's Bank of China is refining its moderately loose monetary policy framework and tools, aiming to ensure ample liquidity and reduce the overall financing costs in society [1] - The State Council is promoting policies to stimulate domestic demand through fiscal and financial collaboration, utilizing tools like interest subsidies and guarantees to enhance consumer spending and private investment [1] Group 2 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is deepening the comprehensive punishment and prevention system for financial fraud in the capital market, enhancing accountability and improving corporate governance and information disclosure quality [1] - The securities industry is benefiting from sustained high trading activity in the market, with leading brokerage firms expected to gain more from the continuous improvement of capital market financing functions [1] - The Securities ETF (512880) tracks the Securities Company Index (399975), which reflects the overall performance of listed companies involved in brokerage, underwriting, and proprietary trading, showcasing the market trends and dynamics of the securities industry [1]

国债期货日报 2026/1/13 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 107.850 | 0.06% T主力成交量 | 54073 | -10308↓ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 105.625 | 0.04% TF主力成交量 | 44516 | -20415↓ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.330 | 0% TS主力成交量 | 31235 | -6059↓ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 111.350 | 0.28% TL主力成交量 | 89373 | -9823↓ | | 期货价差 | TL2603-2606价差 | -0.13 | -0.03↓ T03-TL03价差 | -3.50 | -0.14↓ | | | T2603-2606价差 | 0.07 | -0.02↓ TF03-T03价差 | -2.22 | -0.00↓ | | | TF2603-2606价差 | 0.02 | +0.02↑ TS03-T03价差 | -5.52 | ...

"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"是2026年经济工作的核心抓手。在中央政策框架指引下，各地结合 区域发展实际，推出一系列针对性强、落地性好的地方版扩内需举措。近日，多个省份召开了2026年 的"新年第一会"，加紧部署以实现经济良好开局。 大力提振消费 2026年"两新"政策已经于2025年末正式公布。2025年12月30日，国家发展改革委、财政部联合印发了 《关于2026年实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的通知》，进一步优化"两新"政策制度设计和 实施方式。与此同时，国家发展改革委会同财政部，已向地方提前下达2026年第一批625亿元超长期特 别国债支持消费品以旧换新资金计划。 在中央政策框架指引下，各地结合区域发展实际，推出一系列针对性强、落地性好的地方版扩内需举 措。 近日，多个省份召开了2026年的"新年第一会"，加紧部署以实现经济良好开局。 河南省政府近日举行新闻发布会，介绍河南省《推动2026年第一季度经济发展实现良好开局若干政策措 施》的具体内容和有关情况，会议强调将积极适应消费结构变化，持续挖掘培育消费新增长点，把巨大 的消费潜力充分释放出来。今年还将开展系列促消费活动，例如，将举办"乐 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials industry [1]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the CPI and PPI are better than expected, reflecting a gradual recovery in the real estate chain prices, suggesting that 2026 may mark a turning point for the industry's performance [2]. - Short-term market conditions remain volatile, with a focus on high-dividend stocks and sectors such as exports and home improvement [2]. - The report highlights the importance of technological self-reliance during the 14th Five-Year Plan, particularly in the semiconductor sector, which is expected to benefit cleanroom engineering and related companies [2]. - The real estate sector continues to face challenges, but signs of recovery are emerging as companies reduce personnel and expenses [2]. - The report emphasizes the potential for structural growth in the glass fiber and cement sectors, driven by demand from wind power and new applications [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Bulk Construction Materials Fundamentals and High-Frequency Data - Cement prices have shown a slight decline, with the national average at 352.5 RMB/ton, down 0.3 RMB/ton from the previous week and down 51.7 RMB/ton year-on-year [7][18]. - The average cement inventory ratio is 60.3%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous week but an increase of 2.8 percentage points year-on-year [25]. - The average daily cement shipment rate is 38.7%, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous week but up 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [25]. 2. Industry Dynamics Tracking - The report notes that the glass fiber industry is expected to see stable growth in demand, with effective production capacity projected to reach 759.2 million tons in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 6.9% [11]. - The cement industry is undergoing supply-side adjustments, with a focus on eliminating outdated capacity, which is expected to support profitability in 2026 [11]. - The glass market is experiencing a supply contraction, which may provide price elasticity in 2026, although current demand remains weak [11]. 3. Weekly Market Review and Sector Valuation - The construction materials sector saw a weekly increase of 3.68%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 0.90% [7]. - The report suggests that the valuation of leading companies in the construction materials sector is at historical lows, indicating potential for recovery as industry dynamics improve [11]. - Recommendations include companies like China National Building Material and Conch Cement, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing industry consolidation and recovery [11].

设备更新贷款贴息政策始于2024年，2025年为加力实施设备更新贷款贴息。2025年1月，国家发展改革 委和财政部联合对外发布《关于2025年加力扩围实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的通知》明 确指出，加力实施设备更新贷款贴息。发挥科技创新和技术改造再贷款政策工具作用，对符合有关条件 经营主体设备更新相关的银行贷款本金，在中央财政贴息1.5个百分点基础上，国家发展改革委安排超 长期特别国债资金进行额外贴息，进一步降低经营主体设备更新融资成本。 国务院常务会议明确指出，2026年将实施中小微企业贷款贴息政策。 服务消费依然有较大增长空间，通过财政货币政策联动有助于扩大相关服务消费的供给，进而提振带动 服务消费。2020至2024年，我国居民服务性消费支出年均增长9.6%，保持较快增长。2025年1—11月 份，服务零售额同比增长5.4%，假期出行消费、演唱会经济等服务消费表现亮眼。 2025年8月，财政部、央行、金融监管总局三部门联合对外发布《个人消费贷款财政贴息政策实施方 案》，明确2025年9月1日至2026年8月31日期间，居民个人使用贷款经办机构发放的个人消费贷款（不 含信用卡业务）中实际用于消费 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" and is maintained [2] Core Insights - The report highlights that the new housing transaction data is expected to be under pressure in the first quarter due to the release of pent-up demand before the Spring Festival and high base effects [5] - Regulatory measures have been introduced to alleviate short-term liquidity pressures for real estate companies, including a five-year extension for eligible projects on the "white list" [5] - The government is promoting a package of policies to support consumer upgrades and housing demand [5] Industry Fundamentals Tracking New Housing Transactions and Inventory - Last week, the new housing transaction area in 30 major cities was 1.1627 million square meters, with a cumulative area of 3.4268 million square meters for the year, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 25.5% [6] - The average transaction area over the past four weeks in these cities was 2.254 million square meters, down 27.4% year-on-year and 9.2% month-on-month [6] - First-tier cities saw an average transaction area of 0.5052 million square meters, down 35.7% year-on-year [6] Second-Hand Housing Transactions and Listings - Last week, the transaction area for second-hand housing in 20 cities was 2.1592 million square meters, with a cumulative area of 3.9633 million square meters for the year, down 15.3% year-on-year [7] - The listing index for second-hand housing was 7.38, up 62.9% month-on-month, while the listing price index was 146.9, down 0.55% month-on-month [7] Land Market Transactions - Last week, 47 residential land plots were newly supplied in 100 major cities, with 30 plots sold [27] - The average transaction price for residential land was 4,715 yuan per square meter, with a premium rate of 1.26% [27] Market Review - The A-share real estate index rose by 5.07% last week, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which increased by 2.79% [30] - The Hong Kong property service and management index rose by 4.36%, outperforming the Hang Seng Composite Index, which increased by 0.38% [30]

Economic Data - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 50,000 in December 2025, falling short of expectations[4] - China's CPI rose by 0.8% year-on-year in December 2025, while PPI decreased by 1.9%[4] - Retail sales in China's passenger car market dropped by 14% year-on-year in December[4] Market Performance - The Nasdaq index closed at 23,671.35, up by 0.81%[5] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 49,504.07, up by 0.48%[5] - The S&P 500 index closed at 6,966.28, up by 0.65%[5] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,231.79, up by 0.32%[5] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,120.43, up by 0.92%[5] Bond Market - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 4.60 basis points to 3.532%[4] - The 5-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 2.45 basis points to 3.750%[4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 0.40 basis points to 4.167%[4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a bullish and volatile market outlook for the rebar industry, advising investors to pay attention to risk control [2]. 2. Core Viewpoint - On Monday, the RB2605 contract rebounded with increased positions. Despite the weakening downstream demand for rebar during the off - season, the current macro - environment is positive, and market expectations are optimistic. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are above the 0 - axis [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract is 3,165 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan; the position volume is 1,726,703 lots, up 11,840 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract is - 19,314 lots, up 9,160 lots; the RB5 - 10 contract spread is - 46 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the RB warehouse receipt at the SHFE is 75,421 tons, down 1,212 tons; the HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread is 146 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) is 3,350 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; (actual weight) is 3,436 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) is 3,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin (theoretical weight) is 3,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the RB main contract is 185 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou is - 20 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port is 834 yuan/wet ton, up 14 yuan; the price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port (FOB) is 1,490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) is 2,160 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billets in Hebei is 2,970 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 162.7994 million tons, up 4.18 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants is 439,800 tons, down 46,200 tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills is 6.4586 million tons, up 20,300 tons; the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 79.33%, up 0.37%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 86.06%, up 0.78%; the inventory of billets in Tangshan is 1.4075 million tons, up 141,400 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar at sample steel mills is 1.9104 million tons, up 28,200 tons; the capacity utilization rate is 41.88%, up 0.62%. The inventory at sample steel mills is 1.4793 million tons, up 85,600 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities is 2.9018 million tons, up 75,200 tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills is 70.83%, up 1.04%. The monthly output of crude steel in China is 69.87 million tons, down 2.13 million tons; the monthly output of rebar is 1.434 million tons, up 59,000 tons; the net export volume of steel is 948,000 tons, up 20,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate prosperity index is 91.90, down 0.52; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment is - 2.60%, down 0.90%; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment is - 15.90%, down 1.20%; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment is - 1.10%, down 1.00%. The cumulative value of housing construction area is 6.56066 billion square meters, down 31.27 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area is 534.57 million square meters, down 43.95 million square meters; the inventory of commercial housing for sale is 393.61 million square meters, up 2.84 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In December 2025, 482 projects started across the country, with a total investment of about 534.092 billion yuan; the total investment in 2025 was about 27.52 trillion yuan. The Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stated that in 2026, China's industrial economy has strong resilience, great potential, and sufficient vitality, and the government will focus on four aspects: "stabilize", "expand", "innovate", and "increase" [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuates strongly, with a decrease in open interest, spot discount, and strengthening basis. The copper price is strongly supported by cost. The supply is expected to increase slightly, while the demand remains cautious, leading to an accumulation of social inventory. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows an expanding red column. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 103,800 yuan/ton, up 2,390 yuan; LME3 - month copper is 13,214 dollars/ton, up 216 dollars. The spread between months of the main contract is - 180 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 182,688 lots, down 5,986 lots. The position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 60,574 lots, down 16,936 lots. LME copper inventory is 138,975 tons, down 2,100 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 180,543 tons, up 35,201 tons. The cancelled warrants of LME copper are 23,625 tons, down 2,300 tons. The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 116,622 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of SMM1 copper is 103,235 yuan/ton, up 2,960 yuan; the spot price of 1 copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 103,205 yuan/ton, up 2,580 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 46 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 41.5 dollars/ton, down 1 dollar. The basis of the CU main contract is - 565 yuan/ton, up 570 yuan. The LME copper premium (0 - 3) is 41.94 dollars/ton, up 25.19 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ores and concentrates is 252.62 million tons, up 7.47 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters is - 45.41 dollars/kiloton, down 0.43 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 93,480 yuan/metal ton, up 2,600 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 94,180 yuan/metal ton, up 2,600 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 2,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the north, it is 1,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 123.6 million tons, up 3.2 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 430,000 tons, down 10,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 67,990 yuan/ton, down 1,500 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 83,150 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan. The output of copper products is 222.6 million tons, up 22.2 million tons [2]. Downstream and Application - The cumulative completed value of power grid infrastructure investment is 560.39 billion yuan, up 77.956 billion yuan. The cumulative completed value of real estate development investment is 7,859.09 billion yuan, up 502.82 billion yuan. The monthly output value of integrated circuits is 4,392 million pieces, up 215 million pieces [2]. Option Situation - The historical volatility of Shanghai copper for 20 - day is 26.76%, up 0.8%; for 40 - day is 21.93%, up 0.53%. The implied volatility of the current month's at - the - money IV is 29.72%, down 0.0185. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.56, up 0.0609 [2]. Industry News - In December 2025, China's CPI rose 0.8% year - on - year, the highest since March 2023. The core CPI rose 1.2% year - on - year, remaining above 1% for four consecutive months. The CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month. The PPI decreased 1.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points; it rose 0.2% month - on - month for three consecutive months. The Fed's rate - cut expectation in January 2026 was completely dashed. The U.S. non - farm payrolls in December 2025 increased by 50,000, lower than the expected 60,000. The November data was revised down by 8,000 to 56,000, and the October data was further revised down from a decrease of 105,000 to a decrease of 173,000. The unemployment rate in December dropped to 4.4%, lower than the expected 4.5%. After the data release, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in January was almost zero. The State Council executive meeting deployed a package of policies to promote domestic demand through fiscal - financial coordination, and the National Business Work Conference outlined eight key tasks for the business system in 2026. In December 2025, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.261 million units, down 14% year - on - year; the annual cumulative retail sales were 23.744 million units, up 3.8%. The retail sales of new energy passenger cars in December were 1.337 million units, up 2.6% year - on - year; the annual cumulative sales were 12.809 million units, up 17.6%. It is expected that the retail sales of the auto market in 2026 will remain flat, and new energy vehicles will grow by about 10% [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of Treasury bond futures generally declined, with the T2603 contract down 0.02% and its open interest decreasing. The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of Treasury bond futures was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. Key - term Treasury bond yields at home and abroad also had different changes. Overall, due to factors such as the central bank's open - market operations, economic data, and the Fed's monetary policy expectations, the price of Treasury bond futures was generally weak under the stock - bond seesaw effect [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The closing prices of TS2603, TS2606, TF2603, TF2606, T2603, T2606, TL2603, and TL2606 all declined compared to the previous day, with declines ranging from - 0.01% to - 0.15%. The open interest of T2603 decreased, while others had different changes [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of each contract varied. For example, the trading volume of TS2603 was 28154, and its open interest increased by 121 [2]. - **Spread**: The inter - delivery spread of some contracts changed. For instance, the inter - delivery spread of T2603 - T2606 decreased from 0.095 to 0.080 [2]. - **IRR**: The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of Treasury bond futures was between 0.7727% and 1.5483%, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2]. Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: SHIBOR7 - day rate decreased by 0.1bp, DR007 rate decreased by 1.04bp, and GC007 rate increased by 2.1bp [2]. - **China's Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: Yields of key - term Treasury bonds showed mixed trends. The 10Y - term Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.17bp to 1.88%, and the long - short (10 - 2) Treasury bond yield spread was 41.56bp [2]. Overseas Market - **Overseas Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: The 10Y Treasury bond yields of the US, Germany, and Japan decreased by 1bp, 1bp, and 4.1bp respectively [2]. - **Interest Rate Spreads**: The internal - external interest rate spreads between China and overseas countries were different, such as - 229.9bp for the 10Y US - China spread [2]. Macro and Policy Information - **Central Bank Operations**: Last week, the central bank's open - market reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 16550 billion yuan and carried out 11000 billion yuan of 3 - month outright reverse repurchase operations to fully offset the matured funds. This week, there will be 1387 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 6000 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchases maturing [3]. - **Economic Data**: In December 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, with the core CPI increasing by 1.2% year - on - year. The PPI decreased by 1.9% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline, and increased by 0.2% month - on - month for three consecutive months. The US added 50,000 non - farm jobs in December 2025, lower than expected, and the Fed's probability of cutting interest rates in January 2026 was almost zero [3]. - **Policy News**: The State Council deployed a package of policies for fiscal and financial coordination to promote domestic demand. The Ministry of Commerce issued a task list for the comprehensive pilot program of expanding the opening - up of the service industry in 9 cities [3].