东方证券研报指出，九州通25H1实现归母净利润14.5亿元，同比+19.7%，经营性净现金流-28.2亿元， 较上年同期增加3.8亿元，主要系加大应收账款清收力度、回款增加，预计全年经营性净现金流为与经 营业绩相匹配的正数。医药分销稳健增长，新兴业务增速亮眼。公司加快"三新两化"战略落地，推动实 现高质量发展。截至7月底，九医诊所会员店超2400家，计划3年内实现万家诊所联盟；"货到人"AI物流 项目将挑选出库效率提升10%；8月底，主体项目评级跃升至AAA（国内最高信用等级），后续将适时 启动公募REITs扩募，有望进一步降低融资成本。根据可比公司给予25年14倍PE，对应目标价6.30元， 维持"买入"评级。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 6.30 CNY based on a 14x PE ratio for 2025 [3][6]. Core Views - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with a 5.1% year-on-year increase in H1 2025, achieving a revenue of 811.1 billion CNY and a net profit of 14.5 billion CNY, which is a 19.7% increase year-on-year [10]. - The company is actively pursuing strategic transformation, focusing on enhancing its operational efficiency and expanding its market presence in new retail and e-commerce channels [10]. - The financial forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted, with expected earnings per share of 0.45, 0.47, and 0.53 CNY respectively, reflecting a downward revision from previous estimates [3][5]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 150.14 billion CNY in 2023 to 186.71 billion CNY in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.1% [5][12]. - Operating profit is expected to decline in 2025 to 3.36 billion CNY, down from 3.64 billion CNY in 2024, before recovering to 3.97 billion CNY in 2027 [5][12]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to decrease to 2.27 billion CNY in 2025, with a subsequent increase to 2.68 billion CNY by 2027 [5][12]. - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 7.8% from 2025 to 2027, while the net margin remains consistent at 1.4% [5][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 6.30 CNY based on a 14x PE ratio for 2025 [3][6]. Core Views - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with a projected increase in revenue from 150.14 billion CNY in 2023 to 186.71 billion CNY by 2027, reflecting a CAGR of approximately 7.1% [5][10]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline slightly in 2025 to 2.27 billion CNY, before recovering to 2.68 billion CNY in 2027, indicating a focus on strategic transformation and operational efficiency [5][10]. - The company is actively pursuing a strategic transformation, focusing on new retail operations and enhancing its product offerings, including a significant increase in medical beauty revenue by 48.6% in the first half of 2025 [10]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 162.73 billion CNY, 174.35 billion CNY, and 186.71 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.27 billion CNY, 2.38 billion CNY, and 2.69 billion CNY [5][10]. - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 7.8% from 2025 onwards, while the net margin remains consistent at 1.4% [5][10]. - The company’s operating profit is forecasted to decrease by 7.5% in 2025, followed by a recovery in subsequent years, indicating a focus on cost management and efficiency improvements [5][10].

Core Viewpoint - 九州通医药集团 reported a steady growth in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by its focus on core business and asset securitization strategies [2][3]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, 九州通 achieved a revenue of 811.06 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.10% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 14.46 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 19.70% compared to the previous year [2]. - The net cash flow from operating activities increased by 3.8 billion yuan, attributed to enhanced collection of accounts receivable [2]. Business Growth Drivers - The growth in revenue was supported by a 6.04% increase in the core pharmaceutical distribution business, alongside rapid growth in emerging sectors such as pharmaceutical manufacturing and digital logistics, which saw increases of 10.77% and 24.66% respectively [3][5]. - The successful issuance of public REITs in pharmaceutical warehousing logistics contributed an additional 4.38 billion yuan to net profit [3]. Industry Position - 九州通 is recognized as the largest private pharmaceutical commercial enterprise in China and ranked 165th in the 2025 Fortune "China 500" list [4]. - The company has been acknowledged for its logistics capabilities, being the first in the industry to receive a 5A rating and recognized as a national model for intelligent warehousing logistics [4]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is implementing a "Three New and Two Transformation" strategy, focusing on new products, new retail, new healthcare, digitalization, and real estate securitization [1]. - The new retail strategy has led to the establishment of over 31,535 stores under the "Good Medicine Master" franchise, with a sales increase of 41.30% in the first half of 2025 [8][9]. Digital Transformation - 九州通 has made significant investments in digitalization, with a focus on AI applications, achieving a leading position in the industry [21][23]. - The company has developed various AI-driven solutions to enhance operational efficiency across different business segments [23]. REITs and Asset Management - 九州通's public REIT, launched in February 2025, raised 1.158 billion yuan and was recognized for its high subscription rate, marking a significant milestone in the pharmaceutical logistics sector [24][25]. Talent and ESG Initiatives - The company has prioritized talent acquisition, bringing in 87 key talents in the first half of 2025, and has invested significantly in ESG initiatives, receiving high ratings from various ESG assessment agencies [26][27].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 81.11 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.10%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.446 billion yuan, up by 19.70% [4] - The company is expected to benefit from its "Three New and Two Transformations" strategic layout, which is anticipated to drive growth potential [4] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2026 and added a new forecast for 2027, expecting net profits of 2.633 billion yuan, 2.854 billion yuan, and 3.118 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company's gross margin was 7.56%, a decrease of 0.35 percentage points, while the net margin increased by 0.25 percentage points to 1.87% [4] - The company's digital pharmaceutical distribution and supply chain business generated revenue of 67.634 billion yuan, up by 6.04% [5] - The company has seen a steady growth in its logistics supply chain solutions, which are expected to enhance operational performance [6] Financial Forecasts - The company’s projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 161.17 billion yuan, 172.66 billion yuan, and 185.53 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.2%, 7.1%, and 7.5% [8] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.52 yuan, 0.57 yuan, and 0.62 yuan respectively [8] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are expected to be 10.1, 9.3, and 8.5 respectively [8]

Core Viewpoint - The company is implementing a "Three New and Two Transformation" strategy, focusing on new products, new retail, new medical services, digitalization, and real estate securitization to enhance competitiveness and shareholder value [1][5]. New Product Strategy - The company has established a comprehensive new product strategy framework centered around CSO, covering business development, R&D registration, product evaluation, and marketing [1]. - In 2024, the total sales of the CSO brand promotion business reached 19.267 billion yuan, with 2,247 drug and device specifications introduced, including 52 products with sales exceeding 100 million yuan [1]. - The company's pharmaceutical manufacturing and OEM business achieved sales revenue of 3.007 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.49% [1]. New Retail Strategy - The company is building an integrated online and offline new retail service system, focusing on "ten thousand store franchises" [2]. - The number of franchise pharmacies has exceeded 29,000, generating sales revenue of 5.392 billion yuan, with C-end new retail sales revenue of 2.966 billion yuan [2]. - The logistics network covers over 96% of the country, serving more than 1,900 upstream brand enterprises [2]. New Medical Strategy - The company has developed an efficient clinic operation system and is advancing the "Nine Medical Clinics" membership alliance [2]. - Collaborating with Tencent Cloud, the company has created an AI-assisted diagnostic platform for clinics, enhancing diagnostic efficiency and patient experience [2]. - As of March, the number of member clinics reached 1,377, increasing the company's coverage in clinic channels [2]. Digitalization Strategy - The company has achieved digitalization across various operations, including supply chain management and decision support, and is advancing towards AI integration [3]. - In 2024, R&D investment in digitalization reached 346 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.32% [3]. - The company’s digital platforms have improved operational efficiency and reduced costs, with significant recognition for its digital transformation initiatives [3]. Real Estate Securitization Strategy - The company has established a multi-tiered real estate equity operation platform, including public REITs and Pre-REITs, to attract scarce equity funds [4]. - The public REITs are based on high-quality pharmaceutical warehousing and logistics assets, with a total area of approximately 172,000 square meters recognized as a national intelligent logistics demonstration base [4]. - The company owns over 3 million square meters of pharmaceutical warehousing and logistics assets, with plans for further expansion of REITs listings [4]. Strategic Goals - The strategic objectives of the "Three New and Two Transformation" initiative include enhancing product competitiveness, improving profitability, reaching C-end customers, elevating overall management levels through digitalization, and achieving light asset operations to increase shareholder returns [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's "Three New and Two Transformation" strategy has shown significant results, with the establishment of a "public + private" REITs platform enabling asset-light operations [8] - The company achieved a total revenue of 151.81 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.11%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.51 billion yuan, up 15.33% year-on-year [8] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 42.02 billion yuan, representing a 3.82% increase, and a net profit of 970 million yuan, which is an impressive 80.38% growth year-on-year [8] Financial Performance Summary - The company forecasts total revenue for 2025 to be 165.92 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.81 billion yuan, and expects continued growth in subsequent years [1][9] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.56 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.41 based on the current market price [1][9] - The company's gross profit margin for 2024 was 7.80%, with a net profit margin of 1.84% [8] Strategic Initiatives - The "Three New" strategy includes new product development, new retail initiatives, and new medical services, which are expected to enhance the company's competitiveness in the outpatient channel [8] - The company has introduced over 2,247 new drug and device specifications, with 52 products generating over 100 million yuan in sales [8] - The digital transformation efforts have led to a 24.32% increase in R&D investment, reaching 346 million yuan in 2024, with 47 digital and AI projects implemented [8] Future Outlook - The company anticipates that its net profit will reach 3.53 billion yuan by 2027, corresponding to a P/E ratio of 7.49 [1][9] - The successful implementation of the REITs platform is expected to improve cash flow and support steady growth in core business operations [8]

Core Insights - The Hubei Provincial Conference on the Development of the Private Economy highlighted the growth of Jiuzhoutong Pharmaceutical Group, which has nearly 30,000 franchise pharmacies and expects sales to exceed 7 billion yuan in 2024, representing a 50% year-on-year increase [1][2] Company Overview - Jiuzhoutong was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2010 and currently has 682 holding companies and over 30,000 employees [1] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 113.4 billion yuan, ranking 176th among China's top 500 companies and 55th among private enterprises [1] Strategic Initiatives - The company is advancing its "Three New and Two Transformations" strategy, focusing on new products, new retail, new medical services, digitalization, and real estate securitization [2] - In the new product segment, Jiuzhoutong has established four R&D institutions and collaborates with several research institutes, with an annual R&D expenditure of 200-300 million yuan [2] - The new retail initiative has seen nearly 30,000 franchise pharmacies, with projected sales of over 7 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 50% increase [2] - In the new medical sector, the company has developed a "digital + supply chain" system, with 1,366 franchise clinics and plans to exceed 10,000 clinics in the next five years [2] - The digitalization effort includes a dedicated leadership team and over 1,400 IT engineers, completing more than 100 digital projects [2] - Jiuzhoutong successfully issued the first public REITs for pharmaceutical warehousing and logistics assets in the industry, raising 1.158 billion yuan [2] Corporate Governance - In 2020, Jiuzhoutong transitioned from founder-led management to a professional management team, which is currently functioning well [2] - The company aims to optimize its institutional mechanisms to establish a modern corporate governance system and contribute to the construction of Hubei's economic framework [2]