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华宝期货晨报铝锭-20250623
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-06-23 04:03
从业资格号:F3038114 投资咨询号:Z0014834 电话:010-62688541 晨报 铝锭 成材:重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭:几内亚雨季影响显现 低库存下铝价偏强震荡 投资咨询业务资格: 以伊冲突 负责人:赵 毅 从业资格号:F3059924 投资咨询号:Z0002978 电话:010-62688526 从业资格号:F3078638 投资咨询号:Z0018248 电话:010-62688555 观点:预计价格短期偏强震荡,关注宏观情绪和下游开工。 后期关注/风险因素:关注宏观预期变动、地缘政治危机发展、矿端复 产情况、消费释放情况。 重要声明: 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料,我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证,也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更,我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正,但文中观点、结论和建议仅供参考,投资者据此 做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。 地址:北京市海淀区海淀大街 8 号 19 层 ☎ 400-700-6700 www.zgfcc.com 从业资格号:F3059529 投资咨询号:Z0018932 电话:010-62688516 从业资格号:F03127144 投 ...
华宝期货晨报铝锭-20250609
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-06-09 05:33
Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Views - The finished steel is expected to be in a state of shock consolidation [2]. - The aluminum ingot price is expected to run in a short - term range, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up [3]. Summary by Related Content Finished Steel - During the Spring Festival, short - process construction steel enterprises in Yunnan and Guizhou regions will stop production and overhaul from mid - January, and the resumption time is around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, with an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills, 1 stopped production on January 5, and most of the rest will stop around mid - January, with an estimated daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [1][2]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous week and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2]. - The finished steel continued to decline in shock yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center of gravity continues to move down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, and the price support is weak [2]. Aluminum Ingot - Overseas data shows that the better - than - expected employment growth in the US in May indicates that the Fed may wait longer to cut interest rates. After the data was released, the financial market bet that the Fed would not cut interest rates until September and would cut them twice in 2025, reducing the bet on a third rate cut [1]. - As of this Thursday, the total built - in production capacity of metallurgical alumina in China is 110.82 million tons/year, and the total operating production capacity is 87.27 million tons/year. The weekly start - up rate of alumina increased by 0.54 percentage points to 78.75% compared with last week [2]. - In June, the off - season atmosphere of downstream aluminum processing is strong, and the weekly start - up rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 60.9% compared with last week. The aluminum cable and wire sector is weak, and attention should be paid to the next delivery cycle and market segment orders [2]. - On June 5, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 504,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons from the beginning of the week and 7,000 tons from last Thursday. The post - holiday inventory accumulation is controllable, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline in the short term [2].
华宝期货晨报铝锭-20250509
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-05-09 02:40
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move downward with a weak trend, and it will operate in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center of gravity shifting downward [1][2] - The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term and operate within a range, with low inventory providing some support [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, and resume production around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting 741,000 tons of total construction steel production [1] - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui, one stopped on January 5, most will stop around mid - January, and the daily output affected during the shutdown is about 16,200 tons [2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - The price of finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, with little price support [2] Aluminum - As of Thursday, the national metallurgical alumina's total built - in production capacity is 109.22 million tons/year, the total operating capacity is 87.02 million tons/year, and the weekly operating rate decreased by 0.07 percentage points to 79.67% [2] - Before the festival, the domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises' operating rate decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 61.6% week - on - week and 2.8 percentage points year - on - year. Except for the aluminum cable operating rate rising, other sectors decreased [2] - On May 8, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 620,000 tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons from Tuesday and an increase of 6,000 tons from April 30 [2] - The domestic aluminum ingot inventory performance during the May Day holiday was better than expected, and the inventory accumulation was controllable. The inventory continued to decline after the festival, indicating strong consumption resilience [2]