Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the polyester industry, particularly for polyester filament yarn, with expectations for improved profitability during the peak season [4][6][19]. Core Insights - The profitability of polyester filament yarn has shown signs of improvement since late July, following a period of weak demand due to export tariffs and seasonal factors [6][7]. - The report highlights that the current inventory pressure is primarily concentrated in the downstream textile sector, with downstream fabric inventory at a high of 30.57 days and filament raw material inventory at a low of 9.85 days [14][15]. - The upstream oil sector is experiencing rising oil prices, with Brent crude oil futures closing at $69.67 per barrel, reflecting a 1.8% increase week-on-week [23][24]. - The refining sector is seeing mixed results, with overseas refined oil crack spreads increasing, while olefin price spreads show variability [54][56]. Summary by Sections Polyester Sector - Polyester filament yarn profitability is gradually improving, with price spreads for POY, FDY, and DTY reaching 1211, 1516, and 1200 CNY/ton respectively as of August 1 [7][19]. - The overall operating rate for polyester filament yarn remains around 90%, while downstream textile enterprises are operating at a low of 50.4% [15][19]. Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices have increased, with a week-on-week rise of 1.8%, and WTI prices up by 3.33% [23][24]. - The report notes a decrease in the number of active drilling rigs in the U.S., with a total of 540 rigs as of August 1, down by 2 from the previous week [34]. Refining Sector - The report indicates that the Singapore refining margin for major products has increased to $15.48 per barrel, while domestic refining margins remain at lower levels [54][56]. - The report suggests that refining profitability may improve as economic recovery progresses, despite current low margins [54][56]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the polyester sector such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as well as high-quality refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Sinopec [19].

Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Views - The finished steel is expected to be in a state of shock consolidation [2]. - The aluminum ingot price is expected to run in a short - term range, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up [3]. Summary by Related Content Finished Steel - During the Spring Festival, short - process construction steel enterprises in Yunnan and Guizhou regions will stop production and overhaul from mid - January, and the resumption time is around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, with an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills, 1 stopped production on January 5, and most of the rest will stop around mid - January, with an estimated daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [1][2]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous week and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2]. - The finished steel continued to decline in shock yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center of gravity continues to move down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, and the price support is weak [2]. Aluminum Ingot - Overseas data shows that the better - than - expected employment growth in the US in May indicates that the Fed may wait longer to cut interest rates. After the data was released, the financial market bet that the Fed would not cut interest rates until September and would cut them twice in 2025, reducing the bet on a third rate cut [1]. - As of this Thursday, the total built - in production capacity of metallurgical alumina in China is 110.82 million tons/year, and the total operating production capacity is 87.27 million tons/year. The weekly start - up rate of alumina increased by 0.54 percentage points to 78.75% compared with last week [2]. - In June, the off - season atmosphere of downstream aluminum processing is strong, and the weekly start - up rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 60.9% compared with last week. The aluminum cable and wire sector is weak, and attention should be paid to the next delivery cycle and market segment orders [2]. - On June 5, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 504,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons from the beginning of the week and 7,000 tons from last Thursday. The post - holiday inventory accumulation is controllable, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline in the short term [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The aluminum market is expected to fluctuate in a large range of 19,000 - 21,000. Next week, the Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract is expected to continue to consolidate around the 20,000 level, with an estimated range of 19,800 - 20,500. The market is in the transition period between peak and off - peak seasons, and the expected weakening of demand reduces the upward momentum of aluminum prices. Although the positive impact of the easing of Sino - US trade frictions still exists, the boosting effect of macro - sentiment may gradually weaken. The supply of electrolytic aluminum has reached its upper limit, and the focus should be on the demand side. Overall, the aluminum market is expected to be in a large - range shock, with a relatively strong shock in late May [5][13]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: In mid - to late May, due to the alternation of peak and off - peak seasons, the end of PV rush installation, and the decline in export orders, the market still expects weakening demand, which reduces the upward momentum of aluminum prices. The Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract is expected to continue to consolidate around the 20,000 level next week, with an estimated range of 19,800 - 20,500 [5]. - **Mid - line Strategy**: Suggest to wait and see or conduct short - band trading [8]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: It was expected that the aluminum price would continue to consolidate around the 20,000 level, and the Shanghai Aluminum 2506 contract was temporarily seen in the range of 19,500 - 20,000. It was advisable to wait and see or conduct short - band trading [7]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract is expected to continue to consolidate around the 20,000 level, with an estimated range of 19,800 - 20,500. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - band trading. For spot enterprises, it is advisable to purchase and stock up as needed [8][9]. 3.3 Overall View - **Bauxite Market**: The cost of mines in Guinea varies greatly. If the CIF price of standard - grade ore in Guinea falls below $70 per dry ton and remains at this level for some time, some mines may choose to reduce production. Currently, the supply of imported ore is relatively loose, and low - cost mines have a certain ability to resist price declines. There may be a further decline in the price of imported ore, but it is expected to gradually bottom out below $70 per dry ton. If there are policy disturbances, there may be a rebound [10]. - **Alumina Market**: As of mid - May, the national alumina production capacity was 110.82 million tons (the increase in production capacity mainly came from Hebei), the operating capacity was 86.75 million tons, a decrease of 550,000 tons compared with before the holiday, and the operating rate was 78.2%. Recently, the supply side of alumina has changed frequently, the scale of production reduction has expanded, and the output has decreased periodically. Coupled with the relatively strong purchasing and replenishment意愿 of some downstream aluminum plants, the demand has increased slightly, which alleviates the oversupply situation and supports the price increase [10]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: As of the week of May 15, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased steadily to 843,000 tons. The profit of electrolytic aluminum plants is at a high level, and the production in Sichuan Province continues to rise. The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is approaching the ceiling of 45 million tons, the resumption of production in Yunnan, Sichuan and other places is nearly completed, and the new production capacity is difficult to release due to environmental protection policies and energy - consumption dual - control. Overseas markets are restricted by high energy costs. Although the production is increasing, the overall capacity utilization rate is already high, and the room for further production increase this year is limited. The global primary aluminum production growth rate is only 1.9% [10]. - **Import and Export**: Currently, the theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1,600 yuan/ton, compared with about 1,500 yuan/ton last week. The phased easing of Sino - US tariff confrontation, but its boosting effect on exports remains to be seen [10]. - **Demand**: - **Aluminum Profiles**: The national profile operating rate decreased by 1 percentage point to 56.5% this week. Benefiting from the support of real - estate policies, the policy benefits are gradually transmitted to the industry, but the new industrial orders are still weak [12]. - **Aluminum Plates, Strips and Foil**: The operating rate of leading aluminum plate and strip enterprises remained stable at 67.2%. The cancellation of reciprocal tariffs has limited impact on the export of aluminum plates and strips. The recovery of terminal demand has been gradually transmitted to the upstream aluminum processing industry, providing certain support for the operation of the aluminum plate and strip sector. The operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises remained stable at 71.6%. The cancellation of Sino - US trade reciprocal tariffs may lead to a short - term rebound in exports in the household appliances and electronics sectors, driving the export - related operation of domestic aluminum foil enterprises [12]. - **Aluminum Cables**: The operating rate of leading domestic aluminum cable enterprises decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 65.2% this week. Considering the enterprise's production schedule and order prospects, the industry operating rate is expected to remain stable [12]. - **Alloys**: The operating rate of leading domestic primary aluminum alloy enterprises decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 54.6% this week. Enterprises reported that orders and operating conditions were slightly weaker than those in early May. The industry operating rate may still maintain a stable and weak trend next week. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises remained stable at 55.0%. The current industry cost pressure is still prominent. The continuous increase in the price of primary aluminum drives up the price of scrap aluminum, while the increase in the price of alloy ingot products is limited, resulting in a further expansion of the theoretical loss of the industry [12]. - **Inventory**: - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The latest social inventory of aluminum ingots is 580,000 tons, a decrease of about 6% compared with last week and about 22% lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level since 2017. The easing of Sino - US tariffs has led to a significant increase in the price of European routes recently. There may be a situation of rush - exporting during the window period of tariff confrontation. May and June may not be the off - peak season. The inventory of aluminum rods is 129,500 tons, a decrease of about 14% compared with last week and about 28% lower than the same period last year. The inventory - reduction speed has accelerated again, and it is at the mid - axis level since 2016. The LME electrolytic aluminum inventory has been continuously declining slightly since May 2024 and is currently at a low level since 1990 [12][17]. - **Profit**: - **Alumina Profit**: The current average cash cost of the Chinese alumina industry is about 2,600 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 450 yuan/ton, compared with about 300 yuan/ton last week [13]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Profit**: The current average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,200 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 2,900 yuan/ton, compared with a profit of 2,500 yuan/ton last week. The profit is at a relatively high level [13]. - **Market Expectation**: The positive impact of the easing of Sino - US trade frictions still exists, but the boosting effect of macro - sentiment may gradually weaken over time. It is necessary to pay attention to whether there are further policies to support the aluminum price. Fundamentally, more attention should be paid to the demand side. The supply of electrolytic aluminum has reached its upper limit, and the negative impact is limited. On the demand side, the downstream demand is gradually entering the off - peak season, and the overall demand growth momentum is insufficient. However, due to the delivery of power - transmission and transformation orders and the start of the second - batch tender in the aluminum cable industry, the demand is still guaranteed in the short term, and the回调 space is limited. Therefore, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate around the 20,000 mark next week to accumulate energy for an upward attack [13]. - **Key Concerns**: - Whether the mining process of Guinea mines will have a major impact on imported ores after June. - Whether there will be a rush - exporting situation during the window period of the easing of Sino - US tariff confrontation [13]. 3.4 Important Industry Link Price Changes - This week, the bauxite price changed from falling to stable. In the market situation of oversupply, sellers are in a passive position. However, the price of $70 per dry ton is approaching the cost price of some high - cost mines, and mines have the intention to support the price. Recently, the price of thermal coal has been running weakly. Due to high inventory and low demand in the off - peak season, most traders are still pessimistic about the subsequent price trend. The price of alumina has risen significantly. The previous loss - induced production reduction has indeed been reflected in the supply - demand level. At the same time, it is rumored that Guinea has tightened mining licenses, and the alumina price was炒作 again near the weekend. The Sino - US tariff easing measures are being gradually implemented, and with the rebound of the alumina end, the electrolytic aluminum price has reached the 20,000 - yuan mark; the performance of alloys is relatively weak, and the weak actual orders and the expected increase in scrap supply suppress the disk [14][15]. 3.5 Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - This week, the domestic bauxite port inventory has increased for the fifth consecutive week, mainly due to the increase in imported ore arrivals and the cautious procurement of domestic alumina plants. However, the production rate of alumina is rising rapidly. Considering the shipping rhythm of Guinea, the supply of aluminum ore may turn tight again after June and July. The alumina inventory continues to decline slightly. The overseas LME aluminum inventory continues to decline slightly. Since the end of May 2024, it has been continuously declining slightly. The room for production increase of overseas electrolytic aluminum plants this year is limited. With the easing of Sino - US - EU tariffs, the inventory may continue to decline [16][17]. 3.6 Supply and Demand Situation - **Profit of Key Links in the Domestic Aluminum Industry**: This week, the average cash cost of the domestic alumina industry is expected to be about 2,580 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 450 yuan/ton, compared with a profit of about 300 yuan/ton last week; the production cost of electrolytic aluminum is about 17,200 yuan/ton, compared with about 17,100 yuan/ton last week, and the theoretical profit is about 2,900 yuan/ton (compared with 2,500 yuan/ton last week); the theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1,600 yuan/ton, compared with a loss of about 1,500 yuan/ton last week [19]. - **Operating Rate of Downstream Processing Enterprises**: This week, the operating rate of leading domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 61.6%, showing a differentiated pattern. In the off - peak season, the operating rate is expected to continue to decline slightly next week [21][22]. 3.7 Futures - Spot Structure - The current Shanghai Aluminum futures price structure is slightly bullish. Under the situation of low inventory and the possibility of another rush - exporting in China, the spot price provides certain upward support for the futures price [28]. 3.8 Spread Structure - The LME (0 - 3) is at a premium of $5.79 per ton (compared with a discount of $9.4 per ton last week). Since mid - to late May 2024, the LME inventory has been continuously declining slightly. Currently, the LME aluminum inventory is at a relatively low level since 1990. With the easing of Sino - US tariffs, the market focus has returned to the low inventory. The spot quotation of A00 aluminum ingots is at a premium of 80 yuan/ton, compared with a discount of 0 yuan/ton last week. As Sino - US gradually implement the measures to ease tariffs and the domestic social inventory is relatively low, the phenomenon of spot traders adding prices to pick up goods has increased. This week, the spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 2,790 yuan/ton, compared with - 3,190 yuan/ton last week. Currently, the spread between primary aluminum and alloys is at a low level in recent years, which provides obvious support for the electrolytic aluminum price [31][36][37]. 3.9 Market Fund Situation - **LME Aluminum Variety Fund Trend**: In the past two weeks, the net long position has continued to rise slightly. After the short - sellers significantly increased their positions in mid - March, they have slightly reduced their positions, but the long - sellers have continued to reduce their positions since mid - March. The short - term market may continue a narrow - range rebound [39]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum Variety Fund Trend**: This week, the net long position remained stable, and both the long and short sides mainly reduced their positions slightly. The net long position of funds with a financial speculation background continued to remain stable and is still at a high level since the end of 2024. The net short position of funds with a background of mid - and downstream enterprises has slightly narrowed. From the performance of the current main funds, the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [42].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2) Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a sideways consolidation [3] - The price of aluminum is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, and macro - sentiment and downstream start - up should be monitored [4] 3) Summary by Related Content Finished Products - In the Yungui region, short - process construction steel producers' Spring Festival shutdown is mostly from mid - to late January, and the resumption is expected around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel output [2] - In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5th, most will stop around mid - January, and some after January 20th, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% MoM decrease and a 43.2% YoY increase [3] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner, hitting a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center continues to shift downward. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little price support [3] Aluminum - Yesterday, the aluminum price fluctuated strongly. In April, the US PPI unexpectedly fell, and retail sales growth slowed. Fed officials need more data to determine the impact of tariff statements on prices and the economy [2] - Last week, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises rose 0.3 percentage points to 61.9%. The aluminum cable operating rate increased 1.4 percentage points to 65.6%, while the national profile operating rate decreased 1.5 percentage points to 57.5% [3] - On May 15, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 581,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from Monday, 39,000 tons from last Thursday, and 166,000 tons from the same period last year, remaining at a near - three - year low [3] - Although the inventory of domestic aluminum ingots can maintain a de - stocking trend in the short term, around the end of May and early June, the circulation in domestic mainstream consumption areas may gradually ease. The key node of the subsequent inventory accumulation of domestic aluminum ingots needs to be confirmed [3] - Short - term warming of the macro - atmosphere boosts prices, but subsequent consumption will enter the off - season, and inventory faces accumulation pressure. Attention should be paid to the support of fundamentals after the dissipation of macro - sentiment [4]