Report Information - Report Name: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: July 18, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Market Review - The main contract of SHFE zinc switched to 2508, closing at 22,130 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan or 0.52%. It showed reduced volume and decreased positions, with positions decreasing by 11,088 lots to 67,223 lots. The spread between the 08 and 09 contracts was 10 [7]. - The inventory trends of domestic and overseas markets continued to diverge. LME zinc had a cumulative delivery of 16,225 tons, and the inventory increased to 121,475 tons. The 0 - 3C was 8.95, and the SHFE - LME ratio was 8.18, with the import window deeply closed. Domestic social inventory increased for the fourth consecutive week, reaching 93,500 tons [7]. - The downstream orders were weak. In the first half of the week, the decline in the market led to better trading, but in the second half, it basically maintained rigid procurement. The premium in the Shanghai market for the 08 contract was 40 - 50 yuan/ton, the Tianjin market was at a discount of 40 yuan/ton compared to the Shanghai market, and the Guangdong market was at a discount of 40 yuan/ton for the 09 contract. The price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong remained stable [7]. - Fundamentally, there were limited changes. The domestic consumption side was squeezed by both the off - season and weak exports. The off - season inventory accumulation trend was realized. It rebounded in the short term due to macro news, but the upward driving force was weak, and it fluctuated weakly around 22,000 yuan/ton [7]. Industry News - On July 17, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was 22,090 - 22,200 yuan/ton, and Shuangyan was traded at 22,170 - 22,300 yuan/ton. The mainstream transaction price of 1 zinc was 22,020 - 22,130 yuan/ton [8]. - In the Ningbo market, the mainstream brand 0 zinc was traded at around 22,080 - 22,170 yuan/ton. The regular brands in Ningbo offered a premium of 20 yuan/ton for the 2508 contract and were at par with the Shanghai spot price [8]. - In the Tianjin market, 0 zinc ingots were mainly traded at 22,030 - 22,150 yuan/ton, and Zijin was traded at 22,050 - 22,170 yuan/ton. 1 zinc ingots were traded at around 21,930 - 22,040 yuan/ton. Huludao was priced at 23,060 yuan/ton. The 0 zinc in Tianjin was at a discount of 0 - 20 yuan/ton for the 2508 contract, and Zijin was at a premium of 0 - 20 yuan/ton for the 2508 contract. The Tianjin market was at a discount of about 40 yuan/ton compared to the Shanghai market [8][9]. - In the Guangdong market, the mainstream 0 zinc was traded at 21,990 - 22,130 yuan/ton. The mainstream brands offered a discount of 40 yuan/ton for the 2509 contract and a discount of 80 yuan/ton for the Shanghai spot price. The price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong remained stable [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating" [6]. - The short - term outlooks for specific varieties are as follows: steel prices are expected to oscillate in the short term; iron ore prices are expected to oscillate; scrap steel prices are expected to oscillate; coke prices are expected to oscillate; coking coal prices are expected to oscillate; glass prices are expected to oscillate in the short term; soda ash prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term and decline in the long - term; ferrosilicon manganese prices are expected to oscillate; and ferrosilicon prices are expected to oscillate [8][9][18]. Report's Core View - The black building materials sector is in a vacuum period with limited trading drivers. The overall market is oscillating, and attention should be paid to the accumulation of steel inventory pressure [1][2]. - The performance of furnace materials is better than that of finished products. Double - coking continued a small - scale rebound, iron ore oscillated around 700, and steel was relatively weak [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mines are in the end - of - fiscal - year and end - of - quarter rush, with a seasonal increase in shipping volume expected before early July, but the year - on - year increase is limited. The demand side shows that the profitability rate of steel enterprises and molten iron production are rising, and it is expected to remain high in the short term. This week, arrivals increased seasonally, and port inventories increased slightly. There is an expectation of a small - scale increase in ore inventory in the short term, but the amplitude is expected to be limited, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Attention should be paid to the profitability and maintenance plans of steel enterprises on the demand side [2]. Carbon Element - Some coal mines that were shut down due to environmental protection and safety inspections are resuming production, and coking coal production is expected to recover from a low level. In terms of imports, the port inventory is high, downstream procurement willingness is low, and the customs clearance volume remains low. On the demand side, coke production has declined from a high level, and there is an expectation of a further decline in coke enterprise operations under the pressure of losses. In terms of inventory, the rigid demand for coking coal has declined, the total amount of downstream raw material replenishment demand is limited, the upstream inventory of coking coal is still at a high level in recent years, and the inventory structure problem has not improved significantly. Overall, the supply - side tightening state is difficult to sustain, downstream rigid demand in the off - season tends to decline, there is still pressure on mine - end de - stocking, and coking coal prices lack a driving force for a trend - like increase [3]. Alloys - Manganese ore has continuous disturbances. South African shipments in July may be affected by local railway derailments, and there may be a reduction in shipments from individual mines of South African manganese ore to China in July. The market price of manganese ore has gradually stabilized and is showing an upward trend. Ferrosilicon has limited internal contradictions, manufacturers have a strong willingness to hold prices, but some manufacturers have an expectation of increasing production, and the supply - demand gap is expected to be filled. Attention should be paid to steel procurement and production in the future [3][6]. Glass - In the off - season, the demand for glass is declining, the deep - processing demand continues to weaken, and the upstream inventory is accumulating. There is still pressure in the off - season, but the production and sales in Shahe have improved slightly. On the supply side, there is still pressure, with some production lines starting to produce glass and some undergoing cold repairs. The actual demand is under pressure in the off - season, the futures price is higher than the Hubei spot price, and there are many emotional disturbances. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. Soda Ash - The supply - surplus pattern of soda ash has not changed, maintenance is gradually resuming. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and the price center will decline in the long term [6]. Specific Varieties Steel - The domestic policy is in a vacuum period, overseas wars may still be repeated, and the macro - sentiment is weak. This week, the overall supply and demand of steel have strengthened month - on - month, but the inventory is still decreasing. The fundamentals have strengthened month - on - month, but the expectations are still pessimistic, and the fundamental driving force is weak. It is expected that steel prices will oscillate in the short term [8]. Iron Ore - Overseas mines are in the end - of - fiscal - year and end - of - quarter rush, with a seasonal increase in shipping volume expected before early July, but the year - on - year increase is limited. The demand side shows that the molten iron production of small - sample steel enterprises is increasing, and it is expected that the molten iron production can remain high in the short term. This week, arrivals increased seasonally, and port inventories increased slightly. There is an expectation of a small - scale increase in ore inventory in the short term, but the amplitude is expected to be limited, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. It is expected that iron ore prices will oscillate [8][9]. Scrap Steel - As the building materials off - season deepens, the apparent demand for rebar has declined again, but the month - on - month decline has narrowed. The market is pessimistic about the off - season demand, and the futures price is under pressure. The supply of scrap steel is tight, and the demand has short - term support. The factory inventory has decreased, and the absolute level is at a high level in the same period. It is expected that scrap steel prices will oscillate [9]. Coke - After the fourth round of price cuts for coke was implemented, the shipment situation of coke enterprises has improved, and the expectation of stable prices in the coke market is increasing. The supply side shows that some coke enterprises have reduced their operations due to environmental protection and losses, and the overall coke production has continued to decline. The demand side shows that the decline in molten iron production has slowed down, but there is still an expectation of a decline. Overall, the inventory of coke enterprises needs to be digested, the demand support is insufficient, and the upward space for coke prices is limited. In the medium term, there is still downward pressure on coke prices [9][11][12]. Coking Coal - The order - signing situation of coal mines has improved, but downstream enterprises' procurement is mainly for rigid demand, and the market sentiment is still cautious. Some coal mines that were shut down due to environmental protection and safety inspections are resuming production, and coking coal production is expected to recover from a low level. In terms of imports, the port inventory is high, downstream procurement willingness is low, and the customs clearance volume remains low. The demand side shows that coke production has declined from a high level, and there is an expectation of a further decline in coke enterprise operations under the pressure of losses. The inventory structure problem has not improved significantly. The supply - side tightening state is difficult to sustain, downstream rigid demand in the off - season tends to decline, there is still pressure on mine - end de - stocking, and coking coal prices lack a driving force for a trend - like increase. It is expected that coking coal prices will oscillate [13]. Ferrosilicon Manganese - The cost side of ferrosilicon manganese has continuous disturbances, and the market price of manganese ore has gradually stabilized and is showing an upward trend. The supply side shows that the overall production fluctuation is limited. The demand side shows that the futures have rebounded, the bargaining difficulty of steel procurement has increased, and manufacturers have a strong willingness to hold prices. Ferrosilicon manganese production is expected to increase, the terminal steel demand is entering the off - season, the supply - demand is becoming more relaxed, but the cost of factories and manganese ore traders is inverted, and the sentiment of holding prices is strong. It is expected that the futures will oscillate in the short term [16][17]. Ferrosilicon - During the peak season, the expectation of energy such as electricity has improved. The cost side shows that the semi - coke market is stable. The supply side shows that the market's bearish sentiment has eased, most enterprises are producing according to orders, and the inventory decline trend has slowed down. The demand side shows that the steel procurement in June is basically over, and the metal magnesium market is in a general mood. Ferrosilicon has limited internal contradictions, manufacturers have a strong willingness to hold prices, but some manufacturers have an expectation of increasing production, and the supply - demand gap is expected to be filled. Attention should be paid to steel procurement and production in the future, and it is expected that the futures will oscillate in the short term [18].

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a sideways consolidation pattern, with the price center shifting downwards and showing a weak trend [1][3]. - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to be in a short - term strong sideways oscillation, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up rates [4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - In the Yunnan - Guizhou region, short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown and maintenance time is mostly in mid - to late January, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, with an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown period. In Anhui Province, 6 short - process steel mills, 1 has shut down on January 5, and most of the rest will shut down around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2][3]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3]. - The finished products continued to oscillate downward yesterday, reaching a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is also pessimistic, causing the price center to continuously shift down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak support for prices [3]. - The view is that it will move in a sideways consolidation pattern, and later attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [3]. Aluminum and Related Products - This week, some alumina plants completed their maintenance and resumed production, while new maintenance and production - cut news emerged. The national alumina operating capacity increased slightly week - on - week, reaching 83.62 million tons/year as of Thursday, a 740,000 - ton/year increase from the previous week. Alumina spot prices stopped falling, and there was a slight rebound in the northern region. Short - term prices are expected to move in a sideways pattern [3]. - The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.1 percentage points to 62.5% compared with last week. Each sector showed a differentiated pattern: the primary alloy operating rate increased slightly by 0.4 percentage points to 55.4%, but is expected to decline slightly; the aluminum plate and strip maintained at 68.0% but提货 was suppressed by the rising aluminum price; the aluminum cable remained stable at 63.6%, with risks from photovoltaic policies; the aluminum profile showed a structural recovery to 59.5% [3]. - As of April 21, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 673,000 tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons from last Thursday and 51,000 tons from last Monday. It is expected that the domestic aluminum ingot inventory will fall to around 620,000 - 650,000 tons by the end of April [3]. - Macro - sentiment has slightly improved. In the later stage of the peak season, downstream inventory is being reduced. Aluminum prices are oscillating within a range, and attention should be paid to event - induced fluctuations [4].