机构：申万宏源研究 研究员：王立平/刘佩 运营层面，折扣率有所加深，因提前备货库销比略微增加，年底有望恢复到4-5 个月。三季度全渠道折 扣同比加深低单位数，其中，直营和电商同比加深低单位数，批发略微加深，环比维度Q3 相比Q2 折扣 力度同样有所加大。截至三季度末，全渠道库销比5-6 个月，环比同比都有上升，主要是因为双节以及 双十一节奏提前，更早备货导致，库存整体情况及库龄都健康可控，有信心全渠道库销比在年底恢复到 4-5 个月。 分品类看，跑步和健身保持增长，篮球及运动生活销售承压。品类表现继续分化，其中跑步和健身品类 在专业产品驱动下，均实现低单位数增长，优势持续巩固。户外品类也因行业景气及新品推出获得较好 增长，但体量规模尚小。而篮球与运动生活品类相对承压，其中，篮球流水下滑超过20%，运动生活市 场竞争激烈，目前销售仍在恢复中。 渠道保有量略有增加，全年拓店规划不变。截止到9 月30 日，李宁销售点（不含YOUNG）共6132 个， 较上一季末净增33 个，本年迄今净增加15 个。在净增加的15 个销点售中，直营净减少46 个，批发净增 加61 个。李宁YOUNG 销售点数量共计1480 个，较上 ...

Group 1: Summer Consumption Trends - The summer heat has invigorated the diverse consumption market, showcasing various activities from cooling off to health and fitness, and from cultural tourism to local agriculture [1] - The "cooling tourism" trend is rising, with water sports gaining popularity in places like Zhejiang Changxing, where daily visitor numbers have doubled compared to last summer [2] - The "slimming economy" is emerging in Yiwu, driven by a nationwide fitness wave, leading to increased sales of fitness products [3] Group 2: Cultural and Tourism Activities - Guizhou's Weining County is enhancing its summer tourism through events like the torch festival, attracting thousands of visitors and promoting local culture [4] - Shandong's Liaocheng is experiencing a vibrant night economy, with the ancient water town becoming a popular destination for both locals and tourists [5] Group 3: Policy and Economic Impact - The government's "combination policy" is stimulating the summer consumption market, with various businesses offering special discounts alongside national subsidies, leading to significant sales growth in cities like Zibo [6] - In Yunnan's Shuangbai County, the cultivation of marigolds is contributing to the local economy, with an estimated production value of approximately 42.6 million yuan from over 12,000 acres planted [7][8] - The tourism market in Shangri-La, Yunnan, is thriving, with popular attractions like Tiger Leaping Gorge and Pudacuo National Park seeing high visitor numbers during the summer [9]

Group 1 - The summer heat has stimulated diverse consumption in the market, showcasing various activities from cooling off to health and fitness, and from cultural tourism to agricultural features [2] - Water sports have gained popularity in Zhejiang Changxing County, with activities like kayaking and water obstacle courses attracting many visitors, doubling the average daily visitor count compared to last summer [3][5] - The "slimming economy" is emerging in Yiwu, driven by a national trend towards weight management, leading to increased sales of fitness products [7] Group 2 - Guizhou's Weining County hosted a summer tourism season with a bonfire carnival, attracting thousands of local and visiting tourists [9] - The night economy in Shandong's Liaocheng has been revitalized, with the ancient water town becoming a popular destination for both locals and tourists [11] - Policies promoting trade-in programs have been implemented, with significant consumer activity reported in Zibo, where over 539,300 transactions were completed, resulting in a total sales volume of 5.05 billion yuan [14][16] Group 3 - In Yunnan's Shuangbai County, the cultivation of marigolds has entered the harvesting phase, with over 12,000 acres planted and an estimated output value of approximately 42.6 million yuan [18][20] - The tourism market in Shangri-La, Yunnan, is experiencing a surge, with popular attractions like Tiger Leaping Gorge and Pudacuo National Park receiving over 16,000 and 9,000 daily visitors, respectively [22]

Core Viewpoint - Company reported low single-digit growth in retail sales for the second quarter ending June 30, 2025, with a decline in offline channels and a significant increase in e-commerce sales [1][2][3] Retail Performance - As of June 30, 2025, retail sales points (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) totaled 6,099, a net increase of 11 from the previous quarter but a net decrease of 18 year-to-date, with retail business down by 19 and wholesale business up by 1 [1] - E-commerce virtual store business recorded a mid-single-digit growth, while offline channels saw a low single-digit decline [1][2] Sales and Discounts - The overall sales revenue for Li Ning in the second quarter showed low single-digit growth, with e-commerce performing better than offline sales [3] - Retail discounts increased, leading to pressure on margins, but the inventory-to-sales ratio improved to a four-month high [3][4] Marketing Strategy - Marketing efforts are focused on two main themes: NBA (with player Yang Hansheng) and the Olympics, with a significant increase in marketing expenses expected in the second half of the year [2][3] - The company aims to leverage the NBA and Olympic themes to enhance brand visibility and drive sales growth [3][4] Financial Outlook - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting net profits of 2.51 billion, 2.83 billion, and 3.04 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year changes of -16.8%, +12.8%, and +7.6% respectively [2][4] - Target price is set between 17.9 and 19.2 HKD, corresponding to a 2025 PE ratio of 17.2-18.5x, with a rating of "outperform" [2][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Li Ning [1][6][25] Core Views - Li Ning's second quarter performance aligns with expectations, with overall channel revenue showing low single-digit growth, while offline channels experienced a decline [6] - The company is actively managing risks in a challenging retail environment, with a focus on long-term stability [6] - Marketing efforts are expected to increase due to the endorsement of NBA player Yang Hanshen and the partnership with the Chinese Olympic Committee [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for Li Ning are as follows: - 2023: 276 billion RMB - 2024: 287 billion RMB - 2025E: 288 billion RMB - 2026E: 301 billion RMB - 2027E: 312 billion RMB - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 31.9 billion RMB - 2024: 30.1 billion RMB - 2025E: 24.8 billion RMB - 2026E: 26.4 billion RMB - 2027E: 27.8 billion RMB - The expected PE ratios are 12 for 2023, 12 for 2024, 15 for 2025, 14 for 2026, and 13 for 2027 [5][6][16] Company Performance Insights - The inventory level is healthy, with a stock-to-sales ratio of approximately 4 months, although discount rates are under pressure due to weak industry demand [6] - Running and fitness categories are leading growth, while basketball products are experiencing a decline of over 20% [6] - The number of sales points for Li Ning (excluding Li Ning Young) is 6099, with a net increase of 11 stores in the second quarter [6] - The company plans to continue opening new stores in the second half of the year, maintaining its annual store opening plan [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][3][11] Core Views - In Q2 2025, the company's retail sales recorded low single-digit growth year-on-year, with a slowdown compared to Q1. E-commerce sales showed mid-single-digit growth, while discounts remained under pressure. The inventory-to-sales ratio improved to four months [3][4][5] - The company has a healthy channel inventory and cash operating situation, with marketing efforts expected to drive brand growth in the long term despite short-term profit pressures due to increased brand investment [3][11] - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting net profits of 2.51 billion, 2.83 billion, and 3.04 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year changes of -16.8%, +12.8%, and +7.6% respectively [11][12] Retail Performance - As of June 30, 2025, the total number of sales points in China (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) was 6,099, a net increase of 11 from the previous quarter, but a net decrease of 18 year-to-date. The number of Li Ning YOUNG sales points was 1,435, with a net decrease of 18 from the previous quarter and 33 year-to-date [2][3] - The retail channel (direct operation) recorded a mid-single-digit decline, while the wholesale channel saw low single-digit growth. E-commerce virtual store business achieved mid-single-digit growth [2][3] Marketing Strategy - The marketing strategy focuses on two main lines: NBA (Yang Hansheng) and the Olympics (COC). The marketing expense ratio is expected to maintain a low double-digit level for the year, with significantly higher rates in the second half compared to the first half [3][5] - The company is launching limited products and personal logos in collaboration with NBA players, while also promoting a new product line centered around the Olympics and technology [5][11] Financial Forecast - The company forecasts revenue growth of 0.5% in 2025, with expected revenues of 28.81 billion yuan, 30.24 billion yuan, and 31.90 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [12][16] - The expected earnings per share for 2025 is 0.97 yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 15.4 [12][13]