智利《三点钟报》9月23日报道，根据经合组织发布的《2025年9月中期经济展 望》，预计今年全球经济将增长3.2%，比6月的报告高出0.3个百分点，略低于2024年的 3.3%；预计2026年经济增长率为2.9%。报告称，2025年上半年全球经济增长表现强于 预期，尤其是在许多新兴市场。美国对其贸易伙伴征收关税的全面影响尚未完全显 现，自5月以来，美国对几乎所有国家的进口产品征收的关税均有所提高，8月底的实 际税率达到19.5%，为上世纪30年代中期以来的最高水平。 （原标题：经合组织预测2025年世界经济增长3.2%） 报告预计2025年美国的经济增长率为1.8%，较去年下降一个百分点，预计2026年 经济增长率为1.5%。与此同时，由于贸易摩擦和地缘政治不确定性加剧，欧元区经济 增长预计将经历较小但稳定的放缓，从2025年的1.2％降至2026年的1.1％，但公共投资 增加和信贷条件更为有利将抵消部分影响。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Fitch Ratings has significantly downgraded its global economic growth forecast by 0.4 percentage points, predicting that global growth will fall below 2% this year, marking the weakest growth rate since 2009 when excluding pandemic effects [1] Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to slow down to a year-on-year growth rate of below 0.5% by the fourth quarter of this year, described as crawling speed rather than recession [1] - The potential for the U.S. economy to slip into recession is heightened due to weak growth, which could be exacerbated by additional negative shocks [1] Trade and Tariff Impacts - Tariffs are anticipated to further restrict the supply of goods in the U.S., with a significant rise in core consumer prices expected over the next 12 months [1] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs, combined with inflation and rising inflation expectations, diminishes the likelihood of an emergency rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the short term [1] Trade Balance Perspectives - The insistence of the Trump administration on achieving trade balance with various countries is viewed as "very strange" and impractical, as trade surpluses will persist regardless of U.S. policies [1] - China is perceived to have sufficient resilience to cope with Trump's tariff policies, maintaining substantial export volumes to Europe, the U.S., and other emerging markets [1] - Compared to countries like Canada, Mexico, and Vietnam, China's exposure to U.S. tariff risks is considered relatively low [1]