联合国8日发布《2026年世界经济形势与展望》报告，预测2026年世界经济将增长2.7%，略低于2025年 2.8%的预估增速。 报告指出，2025年尽管美国大幅提高关税，但在稳健的消费支出和通胀回落的支撑下，全球经济表现出 超预期韧性，维持了增长势头。然而，深层次的脆弱性依然存在。投资持续低迷和财政空间有限，正在 拖累经济活动，并增加了全球经济可能陷入长期低增长的风险。 报告说，贸易紧张局势的初步缓和有助于减缓对国际贸易的冲击，但更高的关税水平叠加宏观经济不确 定性上升，其影响预计将在2026年更加明显。报告预计2026年全球贸易增长率将降至2.2%，低于2025 年的3.8%。 报告预测，受劳动力市场趋于疲软抑制增长动能的影响，2026年美国经济增速将维持在2.0%左右。由 于美国提高关税以及持续的地缘政治不确定性对出口构成压力，2026年欧盟经济增长将放缓至1.3%。 受外部环境持续走弱影响，日本2026年经济增速预计约为0.9%。 此外，报告还预测，2026年东亚地区经济增长4.4%、南亚地区增长5.6%、非洲地区增长4.0%、拉丁美 洲和加勒比地区增长2.3%、独立国家联合体和格鲁吉亚增长2.1%。 ...

责编：张青津、卢思宇 新华社联合国1月8日电 联合国8日发布《2026年世界经济形势与展望》报告，预测2026年世界经济增长 2.7%，略低于2025年估值。 ...

Core Insights - The OECD's report projects a global economic growth of 3.2% for this year, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the June report, but slightly lower than the 3.3% expected for 2024 [1] - The report anticipates a growth rate of 2.9% for 2026, indicating a gradual slowdown [1] Economic Growth Projections - The first half of 2025 is expected to show stronger-than-anticipated global economic growth, particularly in many emerging markets [1] - The U.S. economic growth rate is projected to be 1.8% for 2025, a decline of one percentage point from the previous year, with a further decrease to 1.5% in 2026 [1] Trade and Tariff Impacts - The full impact of U.S. tariffs on trade partners has yet to be realized, with tariffs on nearly all imported products raised since May, reaching an actual tax rate of 19.5% by the end of August, the highest level since the mid-1930s [1] Eurozone Economic Outlook - The Eurozone is expected to experience a slight but steady slowdown in economic growth, from 1.2% in 2025 to 1.1% in 2026, influenced by trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties [1] - However, increased public investment and more favorable credit conditions are expected to mitigate some of the negative impacts [1]

Core Viewpoint - Fitch Ratings has significantly downgraded its global economic growth forecast by 0.4 percentage points, predicting that global growth will fall below 2% this year, marking the weakest growth rate since 2009 when excluding pandemic effects [1] Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to slow down to a year-on-year growth rate of below 0.5% by the fourth quarter of this year, described as crawling speed rather than recession [1] - The potential for the U.S. economy to slip into recession is heightened due to weak growth, which could be exacerbated by additional negative shocks [1] Trade and Tariff Impacts - Tariffs are anticipated to further restrict the supply of goods in the U.S., with a significant rise in core consumer prices expected over the next 12 months [1] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs, combined with inflation and rising inflation expectations, diminishes the likelihood of an emergency rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the short term [1] Trade Balance Perspectives - The insistence of the Trump administration on achieving trade balance with various countries is viewed as "very strange" and impractical, as trade surpluses will persist regardless of U.S. policies [1] - China is perceived to have sufficient resilience to cope with Trump's tariff policies, maintaining substantial export volumes to Europe, the U.S., and other emerging markets [1] - Compared to countries like Canada, Mexico, and Vietnam, China's exposure to U.S. tariff risks is considered relatively low [1]