Core Viewpoint - Fitch Ratings has significantly downgraded its global economic growth forecast by 0.4 percentage points, predicting that global growth will fall below 2% this year, marking the weakest growth rate since 2009 when excluding pandemic effects [1] Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to slow down to a year-on-year growth rate of below 0.5% by the fourth quarter of this year, described as crawling speed rather than recession [1] - The potential for the U.S. economy to slip into recession is heightened due to weak growth, which could be exacerbated by additional negative shocks [1] Trade and Tariff Impacts - Tariffs are anticipated to further restrict the supply of goods in the U.S., with a significant rise in core consumer prices expected over the next 12 months [1] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs, combined with inflation and rising inflation expectations, diminishes the likelihood of an emergency rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the short term [1] Trade Balance Perspectives - The insistence of the Trump administration on achieving trade balance with various countries is viewed as "very strange" and impractical, as trade surpluses will persist regardless of U.S. policies [1] - China is perceived to have sufficient resilience to cope with Trump's tariff policies, maintaining substantial export volumes to Europe, the U.S., and other emerging markets [1] - Compared to countries like Canada, Mexico, and Vietnam, China's exposure to U.S. tariff risks is considered relatively low [1]