Core Insights - The OECD's report projects a global economic growth of 3.2% for this year, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the June report, but slightly lower than the 3.3% expected for 2024 [1] - The report anticipates a growth rate of 2.9% for 2026, indicating a gradual slowdown [1] Economic Growth Projections - The first half of 2025 is expected to show stronger-than-anticipated global economic growth, particularly in many emerging markets [1] - The U.S. economic growth rate is projected to be 1.8% for 2025, a decline of one percentage point from the previous year, with a further decrease to 1.5% in 2026 [1] Trade and Tariff Impacts - The full impact of U.S. tariffs on trade partners has yet to be realized, with tariffs on nearly all imported products raised since May, reaching an actual tax rate of 19.5% by the end of August, the highest level since the mid-1930s [1] Eurozone Economic Outlook - The Eurozone is expected to experience a slight but steady slowdown in economic growth, from 1.2% in 2025 to 1.1% in 2026, influenced by trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties [1] - However, increased public investment and more favorable credit conditions are expected to mitigate some of the negative impacts [1]

Core Viewpoint - Fitch Ratings has significantly downgraded its global economic growth forecast by 0.4 percentage points, predicting that global growth will fall below 2% this year, marking the weakest growth rate since 2009 when excluding pandemic effects [1] Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to slow down to a year-on-year growth rate of below 0.5% by the fourth quarter of this year, described as crawling speed rather than recession [1] - The potential for the U.S. economy to slip into recession is heightened due to weak growth, which could be exacerbated by additional negative shocks [1] Trade and Tariff Impacts - Tariffs are anticipated to further restrict the supply of goods in the U.S., with a significant rise in core consumer prices expected over the next 12 months [1] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs, combined with inflation and rising inflation expectations, diminishes the likelihood of an emergency rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the short term [1] Trade Balance Perspectives - The insistence of the Trump administration on achieving trade balance with various countries is viewed as "very strange" and impractical, as trade surpluses will persist regardless of U.S. policies [1] - China is perceived to have sufficient resilience to cope with Trump's tariff policies, maintaining substantial export volumes to Europe, the U.S., and other emerging markets [1] - Compared to countries like Canada, Mexico, and Vietnam, China's exposure to U.S. tariff risks is considered relatively low [1]