Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating [1][2][3] 2. Core View of the Report - Platinum shows a box - shaped oscillation, and palladium follows a range - bound oscillation [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: The closing prices of platinum and palladium futures and spot markets showed different changes yesterday. For example, platinum futures 2606 closed at 615.10, up 0.83%; gold exchange platinum closed at 605.17, up 0.45%; NYMEX platinum (the day before) closed at 2381.60, up 1.65%. Among palladium prices, palladium futures 2606 closed at 477.95, up 1.83%; RMB spot palladium closed at 436.00, down 1.13%; NYMEX palladium (the day before) closed at 1882.00, up 1.92% [2] - **Trading and Position Data**: Trading volumes of platinum and palladium in different markets decreased compared to the day before. For example, Guangzhou platinum trading volume was 15,282 kg, a decrease of 10,420 kg; NYMEX platinum trading volume was 16,881 kg, a decrease of 27,525 kg. Positions also had different changes, with some increasing and some decreasing. For example, Guangzhou platinum positions increased by 313 to 38,171, while NYMEX platinum positions decreased by 281 to 102,281 [2] - **ETF and Inventory Data**: Platinum and palladium ETF positions (in ounces, the day before) decreased. Platinum ETF positions were 3,270,326 ounces, a decrease of 237 ounces; palladium ETF positions were 1,192,961 ounces, a decrease of 223 ounces. Inventory data also had different changes, such as NYMEX platinum inventory (in ounces, the day before) increasing by 100 to 664,393 ounces, and NYMEX palladium inventory (in ounces, the day before) decreasing by 3,888 to 207,020 ounces [2] - **Spread and Exchange Rate Data**: Spreads between different platinum and palladium contracts and against spot prices changed. For example, the spread between PT9995 and PT2606 was -9.93, a decrease of 2.34 compared to the day before. Exchange rates such as the US dollar index decreased by 0.32% to 99.05; the US dollar against the RMB (CNY spot) decreased by 0.01% to 6.97 [2] 3.2. Macro and Industry News - The French Prime Minister will use Article 49.3 of the Constitution on Tuesday to take action on the revenue part of the 2026 budget draft [4] - Fed Chairman Powell will attend the Supreme Court hearing on Fed Governor Cook [5] - Japanese Prime Minister Kaochi Sanae will dissolve the House of Representatives on January 23 and hold a general election vote on February 8 [5] - The International Monetary Fund expects the world economy to grow 3.3% in 2026, an increase of 0.2 percentage points compared to the forecast in October last year; it will grow 3.2% in 2027, the same as the forecast in October last year [5] - Regarding the Greenland issue, Germany and France will take strong actions in response to US tariff threats, and EU leaders will hold an emergency summit in Brussels on Thursday. Danish officials will miss the Davos Forum due to the escalating Greenland dispute [5] - Sources said that Russia's gasoline export ban on producers may be lifted in February [5] 3.3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of platinum is 0, and the trend intensity of palladium is 0. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4]

Group 1 - The United Nations predicts global economic growth of 2.7% in 2026, slightly lower than the 2.8% forecast for 2025 [1] - Despite significant tariff increases in the U.S., global economic resilience is supported by robust consumer spending and declining inflation [1] - Persistent investment weakness and limited fiscal space are dragging down economic activity, increasing the risk of prolonged low growth globally [1] Group 2 - Global trade growth is expected to decline to 2.2% in 2026, down from 3.8% in 2025, due to higher tariffs and rising macroeconomic uncertainty [1] - The U.S. economy is projected to grow at around 2.0% in 2026, influenced by a weakening labor market and export pressures from tariff increases and geopolitical uncertainties [1] - The EU's economic growth is forecasted to slow to 1.3% in 2026, while Japan's growth is expected to be approximately 0.9% due to a deteriorating external environment [1] Group 3 - Economic growth predictions for various regions in 2026 include East Asia at 4.4%, South Asia at 5.6%, Africa at 4.0%, Latin America and the Caribbean at 2.3%, and the Commonwealth of Independent States and Georgia at 2.1% [2] - The report calls for enhanced global coordination and collective action among countries to address trade adjustments, price pressures, and climate impacts amid escalating geopolitical tensions [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the global economy is projected to grow by 2.7% in 2026, slightly lower than the 2.8% forecast for 2025 [1] - Despite a significant increase in tariffs by the United States in 2025, global economic performance showed unexpected resilience supported by robust consumer spending and a decline in inflation [1] - The report highlights persistent vulnerabilities, including low investment and limited fiscal space, which are dragging down economic activity and increasing the risk of prolonged low growth globally [1] Group 2 - The report indicates that the initial easing of trade tensions has helped mitigate the impact on international trade, but higher tariff levels combined with rising macroeconomic uncertainty are expected to have more pronounced effects in 2026 [1] - Global trade growth is forecasted to decline to 2.2% in 2026, down from 3.8% in 2025 [1] - The report predicts that the U.S. economy will maintain a growth rate of around 2.0% in 2026, while the EU's growth will slow to 1.3% due to increased tariffs and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties affecting exports [1] Group 3 - Japan's economic growth is expected to be approximately 0.9% in 2026, influenced by a weakening external environment [1] - Economic growth projections for various regions in 2026 include East Asia at 4.4%, South Asia at 5.6%, Africa at 4.0%, Latin America and the Caribbean at 2.3%, and the Commonwealth of Independent States and Georgia at 2.1% [1] - The report calls for countries to strengthen global coordination and collective action in response to heightened geopolitical tensions, trade pattern adjustments, price pressures, and climate impacts [2]

Core Insights - The United Nations has released the "World Economic Situation and Prospects 2026" report, predicting a global economic growth rate of 2.7% for 2026, which is slightly lower than the estimate for 2025 [1] Group 1 - The report indicates a global economic growth forecast of 2.7% for 2026 [1]

Core Insights - The OECD's report projects a global economic growth of 3.2% for this year, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the June report, but slightly lower than the 3.3% expected for 2024 [1] - The report anticipates a growth rate of 2.9% for 2026, indicating a gradual slowdown [1] Economic Growth Projections - The first half of 2025 is expected to show stronger-than-anticipated global economic growth, particularly in many emerging markets [1] - The U.S. economic growth rate is projected to be 1.8% for 2025, a decline of one percentage point from the previous year, with a further decrease to 1.5% in 2026 [1] Trade and Tariff Impacts - The full impact of U.S. tariffs on trade partners has yet to be realized, with tariffs on nearly all imported products raised since May, reaching an actual tax rate of 19.5% by the end of August, the highest level since the mid-1930s [1] Eurozone Economic Outlook - The Eurozone is expected to experience a slight but steady slowdown in economic growth, from 1.2% in 2025 to 1.1% in 2026, influenced by trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties [1] - However, increased public investment and more favorable credit conditions are expected to mitigate some of the negative impacts [1]

Core Viewpoint - Fitch Ratings has significantly downgraded its global economic growth forecast by 0.4 percentage points, predicting that global growth will fall below 2% this year, marking the weakest growth rate since 2009 when excluding pandemic effects [1] Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to slow down to a year-on-year growth rate of below 0.5% by the fourth quarter of this year, described as crawling speed rather than recession [1] - The potential for the U.S. economy to slip into recession is heightened due to weak growth, which could be exacerbated by additional negative shocks [1] Trade and Tariff Impacts - Tariffs are anticipated to further restrict the supply of goods in the U.S., with a significant rise in core consumer prices expected over the next 12 months [1] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs, combined with inflation and rising inflation expectations, diminishes the likelihood of an emergency rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the short term [1] Trade Balance Perspectives - The insistence of the Trump administration on achieving trade balance with various countries is viewed as "very strange" and impractical, as trade surpluses will persist regardless of U.S. policies [1] - China is perceived to have sufficient resilience to cope with Trump's tariff policies, maintaining substantial export volumes to Europe, the U.S., and other emerging markets [1] - Compared to countries like Canada, Mexico, and Vietnam, China's exposure to U.S. tariff risks is considered relatively low [1]