1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The provided content does not mention any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Beans and Meal Products**: Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to experience large - range oscillations. For soybean meal, the weak fundamentals and the cost support from Sino - US trade tariffs lead to this situation. For rapeseed meal, factors such as the recovery of global rapeseed production, import tariffs, and the substitution effect of soybean meal contribute to the multi - empty factor entanglement [1][3][7]. - **Palm Oil**: It is in a short - term adjustment phase. Although the biodiesel policies in Indonesia and Malaysia are favorable for the consumption of the palm oil market, the possible inventory accumulation in July in Malaysia may suppress short - term prices [1][8][9]. - **Cotton**: It is recommended to be cautiously bullish. The new cotton growth in the US is still good despite a slight decline in the excellent - good rate. In China, the increase in sown area and yield, along with the fast commercial de - stocking and the recovery of demand, limit the downside space before the new cotton is launched [1][11][12]. - **Red Dates**: It is also recommended to be cautiously bullish. There are still large differences in the market regarding the reduction in production, and high inventory restricts the rebound height. However, there are still risks of speculation [1][15][16]. - **Hogs**: It is recommended to be cautiously bullish. The short - term acceleration of the slaughter rhythm may lead to price drops, but the speculation of secondary fattening provides some support. In the medium and long term, attention should be paid to the capacity reduction [1][18][19]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal - **Market Data**: The futures price of the main contract of soybean meal closed at 3024 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2994.29 yuan/ton, up 0.56%. The national average soybean crushing profit increased by 20.70 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of July 25, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 808.5 million tons, an increase of 10.60 million tons from the previous week. The soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 645.59 million tons, an increase of 3.35 million tons. The soybean meal inventory was 104.31 million tons, an increase of 4.47 million tons [3]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short term, it maintains a slightly bullish rebound trend, but the upward space is limited. Attention should be paid to the USDA monthly supply - demand report next week [1][3]. 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - **Market Data**: The futures price of the main contract of rapeseed meal closed at 2678 yuan/ton, up 0.11% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2667.89 yuan/ton, up 0.36%. The national average rapeseed spot crushing profit increased by 5.21 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of July 25, the coastal area's main oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 13.7 million tons, a decrease of 2.5 million tons from the previous week. The rapeseed meal inventory was 1.9 million tons, an increase of 0.7 million tons. The total rapeseed meal inventory in major regions was 66.54 million tons, a decrease of 1.33 million tons [7]. - **Market Outlook**: It is a large - range market under the entanglement of multi - empty factors. Attention should be paid to the rapeseed planting weather in Canada, the improvement of Sino - Canadian relations, and the follow - up progress of Sino - Australian relations [1][7]. 3.3 Palm Oil - **Market Data**: The futures price of the main contract of palm oil closed at 8838 yuan/ton, down 0.81% from the previous day. The national average price was 8860 yuan/ton, down 1.45%. The national daily trading volume was 1650 contracts, an increase of 1150 contracts [8]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of July 25, 2025, the national key area's palm oil commercial inventory was 61.55 million tons, an increase of 2.41 million tons from the previous week [9]. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term price may be suppressed due to possible inventory accumulation in July in Malaysia. Be cautious about chasing up, and pay attention to the buying situation of domestic palm oil in the past three months and beware of the risk of cornering the market [1][8][9]. 3.4 Cotton - **Market Data**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton, CF2509, closed at 13675 yuan/ton, up 0.66% from the previous day. The domestic spot price was 15172 yuan/ton, down 0.64%. The main contract of ICE cotton closed at 66.62 cents/pound, up 0.39% [10][11]. - **Growth and Inventory**: In the US, the non - drought rate in the cotton - growing area decreased by 4% to 89%, and the excellent - good rate decreased by 2% to 55%. In China, the new cotton yield is expected to increase to over 740 million tons. The commercial inventory decreased to 215.71 million tons [11][12]. - **Market Outlook**: The US cotton may show a weak oscillation. In China, before the new cotton is launched, the downside space is limited. It is recommended to gradually stop losses on previous short positions and consider cautiously going long at low prices [1][12][13]. 3.5 Red Dates - **Market Data**: The main contract of red dates, CJ2601, closed at 10860 yuan/ton, down 0.55% from the previous day. The arrival volume at Guangdong Ruyifang was 5 trucks, an increase of 4 trucks [14]. - **Production and Inventory**: The new - season red dates are in the fruit - setting period. The estimated new - season production is 56 - 62 million tons, with a decrease of 20 - 25% compared to 2024. The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week was 10039 tons, a decrease of 51 tons [15]. - **Market Outlook**: There are still large differences in the market regarding the reduction in production, and high inventory restricts the rebound height. This week, it is recommended to cautiously try to go long [1][15][16]. 3.6 Hogs - **Market Data**: The main contract of hogs, Lh2509, closed at 13940 yuan/ton, down 0.82% from the previous day. The national average spot price of live hogs was 14340 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [17]. - **Inventory and Supply**: The national sample enterprise's monthly pig inventory was 3719.93 million tons, an increase of 0.31%. The monthly pig slaughter volume was 1125.59 million tons, an increase of 1.51%. The monthly inventory of breeding sows was 4043 million tons, an increase of 0.02% [17]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short term, the price may be under pressure, but there is support from secondary fattening. In the medium and long term, pay attention to capacity reduction. It is recommended to gradually stop losses on short positions in the near - month contracts and consider going long in the far - month contracts at low prices [1][18][19].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry-wide investment ratings are provided. The ratings are given on a per-variety basis, including "Big range shock" for soybean meal and rapeseed meal, "Cautious about chasing long" for palm oil, "Cautious short" for cotton and red dates, and "Cautious long" for live pigs [1]. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of six agricultural products, including soybean meal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, cotton, red dates, and live pigs, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on the supply and demand fundamentals, policy factors, and market sentiment of each product [1]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Market Situation**: The climate center has a neutral outlook, and the soybean planting weather in the US is generally favorable. In China, the soybean and soybean meal inventories are in the accumulation phase, which is expected to last until the end of September, with the accumulation rate in August expected to slow down compared to July. The Sino-US trade tariff is the key cost support for soybean meal. The price of domestic soybean meal rebounded technically after a continuous decline, and the market is waiting for new progress in Sino-US trade negotiations [1]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Treat it as a big range market. Pay attention to the results of this week's Sino-US trade negotiations. The main contract range is [2960, 3010] [1]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Situation**: The global rapeseed production has recovered year-on-year, but the soil moisture in some areas of Canadian rapeseed is relatively dry. In the domestic market, the inventories of rapeseed and rapeseed meal in oil mills are decreasing month-on-month, but still remain at a relatively high level year-on-year. From July to September, the import of rapeseed decreased significantly year-on-year, coupled with a 100% import tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and the strength of old crop Canadian rapeseed, which strongly supports the price of rapeseed meal. However, the improving import profit of Canadian rapeseed puts upward pressure on the price of rapeseed meal. In the spot market, the low price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has led to a decrease in the addition of rapeseed meal in feed, which is not conducive to consumption expectations [1]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Treat it as a big range market. Pay attention to the improvement of Sino-Canadian relations and the subsequent progress between China and Australia. The main contract range is [2620, 2700] [1]. Palm Oil - **Market Situation**: The USDA's July supply and demand report lowered the global palm oil ending stocks for the new year, and India's palm oil imports increased by 61.19% month-on-month in June, which is positive for market sentiment. The Indonesian government said it has sufficient funds to achieve the B40 target this year and complete the research and testing work for B50, dispelling previous market doubts and driving up the international palm oil price. Malaysia increased the export tariff for August, which is equivalent to increasing the import cost of domestic palm oil. After a series of positive factors, the market lacks further positive drivers, and Malaysian palm oil is expected to return to the supply and demand fundamentals in July. Based on the production and export data from the first 25 days of July, there is a possibility of inventory accumulation in July [1]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Be cautious about chasing long. There is a risk of price correction in the next one to two weeks. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long after the price stabilizes. Pay attention to the domestic palm oil purchase orders in the past three months. The main contract range is [8800, 9100] [1]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: In the US, the drought in the western cotton-growing areas has slightly worsened the soil moisture, but the growth of new cotton is still good. The latest good-to-excellent rate has slightly declined but still leads the same period last year. The weekly export has weakened significantly, suppressing the upward movement of the market. In China, the actual sown area and yield per unit of new cotton have both increased, and the guaranteed output has shifted upwards. In terms of inventory, the commercial inventory is decreasing rapidly, but the replenishment momentum of downstream finished products has slowed down significantly in the latest week. In terms of demand, the orders of textile enterprises have reached a new low in the past five years during the off-season, and the difference in the operating rates of the two factories has gradually widened. There is a need to be vigilant about the negative feedback of the weakening marginal demand on the inventory reduction support logic [1]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Be cautious about shorting. Pay attention to the opportunity of shorting at high levels and the reverse spread opportunity between the 11th and 1st contracts. Be vigilant about the risk of abnormal fluctuations before the results of the Sino-US trade negotiations are released this week. The main contract range is [13750, 14000] [1]. Red Dates - **Market Situation**: The growth of new jujube trees is relatively good. The market previously expected a significant decline in this year's production due to the "alternate bearing" phenomenon, but the actual second and third crop fruit-setting situations in the producing areas have not shown obvious signs of production reduction. Recently, many institutions have gone to Xinjiang for further investigations. The high inventory situation persists, and it is difficult to accelerate inventory reduction under weak demand. In terms of industry news, only three enterprises are currently implementing the floor purchase orders of some enterprises in the statement of the First Division, and it is difficult to promote it widely under the self-discipline statement [1]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Be cautious about shorting. It is recommended to short at high levels cautiously. Pay attention to industry policies. The main contract range is [10150, 10950] [1]. Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: In the short term, the slowdown in the live pig slaughter rhythm and the pressure on栏 and reluctance to sell of farmers support the price bottom. Driven by the anti-involution sentiment, the live pig market has shown significant fluctuations. However, considering that the weight reduction is not complete, there is still a subsequent supply pressure after the phased pressure eases, and the overcapacity in the medium and long term remains unchanged. There is a need to be vigilant about the risk of selling off due to the previous second-round fattening [1]. - **Investment Suggestion**: For the 09 contract, be vigilant about the risk of further correction as the current basis level is still relatively low and the spot price is slowing down in following the futures price. The 01 contract is relatively strong due to the earlier delivery time compared to previous years. For the far-month contracts, based on the optimistic expectation of the industry's anti-involution, consider going long at low levels or adopting a cross-year reverse spread strategy [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Bean Meal**: It is expected to be in a large - range oscillation. The domestic soybean and bean meal are in the inventory - accumulation stage until the end of September, with the inventory - accumulation speed in August expected to slow down compared to July. Sino - US trade tariffs are the key cost support for bean meal. In the face of weak fundamentals and cost support, it should be treated as a large - range market. Attention should be paid to the results of this week's Sino - US trade negotiations [1][3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It is also expected to be in a large - range oscillation. Global rapeseed production has recovered year - on - year, but soil moisture in some areas of Canadian rapeseed is dry. In the domestic market, rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories in oil mills are decreasing, but still at a relatively high level year - on - year. High tariffs and low imports support the price, but the improving import profit of Canadian rapeseed exerts upward pressure. The low price difference between bean meal and rapeseed meal in the spot market is not conducive to consumption. Attention should be paid to the improvement of Sino - Canadian relations and Sino - Australian progress [1][5]. - **Palm Oil**: Caution should be exercised when chasing long positions. The July USDA supply - demand report lowered the global palm oil ending inventory for the new year, and India's palm oil imports increased by 61.19% in June, which is positive for the market. Indonesia's plan to achieve the B40 target and conduct B50 research is also positive. However, after a series of positive factors, the market may return to the July fundamentals, and there is a possibility of inventory accumulation in July. There is a risk of price correction in the next one to two weeks, and opportunities to go long after price stabilization can be considered [1][7]. - **Cotton**: A cautious bearish view is taken. In the international market, the drought in the US cotton - growing areas has slightly affected the soil moisture, but the overall cotton situation is still good. In the domestic market, the sown area and yield per unit of new cotton have increased, but there may be potential weather disturbances in August. The commercial inventory is decreasing rapidly, but the replenishment power of downstream products has slowed down. The demand from textile enterprises is at a five - year low, and attention should be paid to high - selling opportunities and the 11 - 1 reverse spread [1][11]. - **Red Dates**: A cautious bearish view is also taken. The growth of new - season jujube trees is good, and the expected significant yield reduction due to the "alternate - bearing" phenomenon has not occurred. High inventory persists, and it is difficult to accelerate inventory reduction under weak demand. The implementation of the floor - purchase orders by some enterprises is limited, and it is recommended to be cautious when short - selling at high prices [1][14]. - **Live Pigs**: A cautious bullish view is held. In the short term, the slowdown of the live - pig slaughter rhythm and the pressure - holding and reluctant - to - sell sentiment of the breeding end support the price bottom. However, there is still a back - end supply pressure after the phased pressure eases, and the long - and medium - term over - capacity situation remains. For the 09 contract, beware of further callback risks; for the 01 contract and far - month contracts, consider going long at low prices or adopting the cross - year reverse spread [1][17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Bean Meal - **Market Data**: The closing price of the main bean - meal futures contract was 2,990 yuan/ton, down 1.03% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2,943.43 yuan/ton, down 0.67%. The national average soybean - pressing profit was - 173.9096 yuan/ton, down 21.27 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of July 18, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 7.979 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 252,000 tons; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 6.4224 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 152,500 tons; the bean - meal inventory was 998,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 112,200 tons [3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Data**: The closing price of the main rapeseed - meal futures contract was 2,660 yuan/ton, down 0.56% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2,641.58 yuan/ton, down 0.71%. The national average rapeseed spot - pressing profit was - 620.811 yuan/ton, down 23.32 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of July 18, the coastal area's main oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 162,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,000 tons; the rapeseed - meal inventory was 12,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3,100 tons; the unexecuted contracts were 76,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 17,000 tons [4]. Palm Oil - **Market Data**: The closing price of the main palm - oil futures contract was 8,946 yuan/ton, up 0.11% from the previous day. The national average price was 8,993 yuan/ton, down 0.35%. The weekly commercial inventory was 615,500 tons, an increase of 24,100 tons [6]. - **Market Sentiment**: The proportion of those bullish on palm oil increased from 53% to 76% week - on - week, the proportion of those neutral decreased from 29% to 24%, and the proportion of those bearish decreased from 18% to 0 [6]. Cotton - **Market Data**: The closing price of the main Zhengzhou cotton futures contract CF2509 was 14,075 yuan/ton, down 0.67% from the previous day. The domestic spot price remained stable at 15,558 yuan/ton. The spinning profit of textile enterprises was - 1,496.70 yuan/ton, an increase of 99 yuan/ton [8]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: In the international market, the non - drought rate of US cotton areas decreased by 4% to 89%, and the excellent - good rate decreased by 2% to 55%. In India, the sown cotton area increased by 7% year - on - year. In Brazil, the new - cotton harvest progress reached 16.7%. In the domestic market, the national average yield per unit is expected to increase by 2.5% year - on - year, and the output is expected to exceed 7.4 million tons. The industrial and commercial inventory of domestic cotton decreased by 151,900 tons to 3.1626 million tons [9][10]. Red Dates - **Market Data**: The closing price of the main red - date futures contract CJ2601 was 10,695 yuan/ton, up 2.39% from the previous day. The physical inventory of 36 sample points was 10,090 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 230 tons [12]. - **Production Situation**: The new - season jujube trees are growing well, and the yield is expected to be slightly lower than normal (less than 10% reduction), lower than the previous expectation [13]. Live Pigs - **Market Data**: The closing price of the main live - pig futures contract Lh2509 was 14,125 yuan/ton, down 2.15% from the previous day. The domestic live - pig spot price remained stable at 14,810 yuan/ton. The national sample - enterprise live - pig存栏量 increased by 11,520 to 3.71993 million, and the出栏量 increased by 167,700 to 1.12559 million [15]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: In the short term, the average weight of live pigs has bottomed out and rebounded, and the price is supported by the pressure - holding and reluctant - to - sell sentiment. In the medium term, the number of new - born piglets from January to May 2025 increased, indicating potential growth in the second - half - year出栏量. In the long term, the policy - driven elimination of backward production capacity has limited coverage, and the industry has not yet entered the stage of full - scale loss and capacity elimination [16].

Group 1 - The meeting between Liu Jianchao and Australian Secretary of the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Jan Adams, signifies a strategic communication regarding the future development of China-Australia relations [1][2] - China views Australia as a friend and partner, expressing willingness to implement the important consensus reached by the leaders of both countries and deepen cooperation across various fields [1] - The Chinese government emphasizes the need for a peaceful external environment for its development and recognizes Australia as an important country in the Asia-Pacific region [1] Group 2 - Australia values its relationship with China, with various sectors including business, finance, education, and agriculture participating in dialogues to promote cooperation [2] - The Australian government reaffirms its commitment to the One China policy and opposes "Taiwan independence," indicating a desire to manage differences wisely and avoid misunderstandings [2] - Both sides exchanged views on international and regional issues of mutual concern, highlighting the importance of China's development for regional and global economic growth [2]