中国铝业（601600.SH）2025 年三季报点评 产销稳定，铝价上涨增厚盈利 2025 年 10 月 30 日 ➢ 事件：公司发布 2025 年三季报。25Q1-Q3 公司实现营收 1765.2 亿元，同比+1.6%， 归母净利 108.7 亿元，同比+20.6%，扣非归母净利 107.2 亿元，同比+23.0%。单季度 看，25Q3 营收 601.2 亿元，同比-4.7%，环比-0.8%，归母净利 38.0 亿元，同比+90.0%， 环比+7.6%，扣非归母净利 37.8 亿元，同比+103.1%，环比+7.9%。 ➢ 铝价上涨，Q3 毛利率同环比增加。1）量：25Q1-Q3 电解铝产量 600 万吨，同比 +6.8%，冶金级氧化铝产量 1304 万吨，同比+3.7%，煤炭产量 985 万吨，同比+1.1%； 单季度看，25Q3 电解铝产量 203 万吨，环比持平，冶金级氧化铝产量 444 万吨，环比 +7.8%，煤炭产量 324 万吨，环比-4.4%；2025 年产量目标：冶金级氧化铝产量 1681 万吨，电解铝产量 780 万吨，原煤产量 1410 万吨。2）价：25Q1-Q3 铝价 20447 元 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Aluminum Corporation, the largest aluminum producer in China, expects a significant increase in net profit for Q1 2025, driven by extreme operational efficiency and precise market analysis [1] Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, the company anticipates a net profit of 3.4 to 3.6 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 53% to 63% [1] - The total profit for Q1 2025 is projected to be between 6.2 to 6.7 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30% to 40% [1] - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 63.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72.6% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q4 2024 was 3.38 billion yuan, up 147.96% year-on-year and 69.14% quarter-on-quarter [3] - For the full year 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 12.4 billion yuan, an increase of 85.38% year-on-year, with revenue reaching 237.07 billion yuan, up 5.3% [4] Production and Market Dynamics - In 2024, the production of alumina and primary aluminum increased to 16.87 million tons and 7.61 million tons, respectively [5] - The external sales of primary aluminum rose by 11.76% to 7.6 million tons, indicating strong market demand [5] - The market price of alumina showed an upward trend in 2024, with domestic prices peaking at 5,780 yuan per ton and averaging 4,084 yuan per ton, a year-on-year increase of 39.9% [6] - Internationally, the average price of alumina was $502 per ton, reflecting a 46% year-on-year increase [6] Strategic Insights - The company has successfully implemented extreme cost reduction and efficiency enhancement strategies, leading to substantial performance improvements despite fluctuations in raw material prices and global market conditions [6] - The investment in the Boffa project in Guinea is expected to yield high-quality bauxite with a long remaining exploitable life, contributing to the company's self-sufficiency in bauxite supply [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][8]. Core Views - The company achieved a record net profit of 12.4 billion yuan in 2024, representing an increase of 85.38% year-on-year. The fourth quarter saw a significant net profit of 3.38 billion yuan, up 147.96% year-on-year and 69.14% quarter-on-quarter [3][12]. - The profitability of the alumina segment has significantly increased, with alumina prices rising and contributing to the overall profit despite a slight decline in aluminum profit per ton [3][20]. - The company's integrated business model and resource security are highlighted as key advantages, with a focus on the potential for value reassessment under the "special valuation" framework [5][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Performance - In 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 237.07 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.88% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 12.4 billion yuan, up 85.38% year-on-year [7][20]. - The alumina segment contributed significantly to profits, with a gross profit of 19.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 236.4% [20]. 2. Q4 Performance Breakdown - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 3.38 billion yuan, with major profit-increasing factors including gross profit and fair value changes [4][33]. - The company proposed a dividend of 0.217 yuan per share, totaling 3.723 billion yuan, representing a payout ratio of 30.02% [4]. 3. Future Outlook - The company’s integrated layout provides significant resource security, with alumina reserves of approximately 2.7 billion tons and a self-sufficiency rate that continues to improve [5][39]. - The report anticipates net profits of 15.46 billion yuan, 17.68 billion yuan, and 19.57 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 8, 7, and 7 [6][7]. 4. Financial Health - The company has optimized its balance sheet, reducing short-term borrowings from 20.7 billion yuan at the end of 2020 to 3.1 billion yuan by the end of 2024 [5][54]. - The asset-liability ratio improved to 48.1% by the end of 2024, down 5.2 percentage points from the previous year [5][52].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][8]. Core Views - The company achieved a record performance in 2024, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.4 billion yuan, representing an 85.38% year-on-year increase [3][12]. - The significant increase in profits is largely attributed to the strong performance of the alumina segment, with a substantial rise in both production and pricing [5][20]. - The company's integrated business model and resource security are expected to enhance its valuation amid geopolitical uncertainties [5][39]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Performance - In 2024, the company reported a net profit of 12.4 billion yuan, with a non-recurring net profit of 11.979 billion yuan, both showing significant year-on-year growth [3][12]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a net profit of 3.383 billion yuan, marking a 147.96% increase year-on-year and a 69.14% increase quarter-on-quarter [3][12]. 2. Segment Contributions - The alumina segment's pre-tax profit reached 11.685 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.635 billion yuan, while the primary aluminum segment's pre-tax profit was 8.966 billion yuan, down 2.288 billion yuan year-on-year [3][20]. - The company produced 16.87 million tons of metallurgical-grade alumina in 2024, a 1.2% increase year-on-year, and 7.61 million tons of primary aluminum, a 12.08% increase year-on-year [22][39]. 3. Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 15.461 billion yuan, 17.675 billion yuan, and 19.569 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 8, 7, and 7 times [6][7]. - The integrated layout of the company is anticipated to provide significant resource security, with alumina reserves of approximately 2.7 billion tons and a self-sufficiency rate that continues to improve [5][39]. 4. Financial Health - The company's balance sheet has improved, with short-term borrowings reduced from 20.7 billion yuan at the end of 2020 to 3.1 billion yuan at the end of 2024 [5][54]. - The asset-liability ratio decreased to 48.1% by the end of 2024, down 5.2 percentage points from the previous year, indicating a stronger financial position [5][52].