中国最大铝生产商中国铝业7日发布2025年第一季度业绩预增公告，预计净利润34亿元至36亿元，同比增加53%至63%；业绩增长原因公司秉持极致经 营理念，精准研判市场价格波动、全方位极致降本增效，主要产品同比增产，实现经营业绩同比大幅增加。 利润：2025年Q1预计利润总额达62-67亿元，同比增30%-40%； 归母净利润：归母净利润34-36亿元，同比增53%-63%。 第四季度，公司营业收入为632.9亿元，同比增长72.6%。 2024Q4，公司实现归母净利润33.83 亿元，同比增长147.96%，环比增长69.14%； 扣非归母净利润32.63 亿元，同比增长93.72%，环比增长75.54%。 | | 2024年 | 2023年 | | 本年比 ┣年 | 2022年 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 调整后 | 调整前 | 增减(%) | 调整后 | 调整前 | | 总资产 | 215,895,530 | 211,896,104 | 211, 755, 809 | 1.89 | 212, 516, 069 | 212, 3 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][8]. Core Views - The company achieved a record net profit of 12.4 billion yuan in 2024, representing an increase of 85.38% year-on-year. The fourth quarter saw a significant net profit of 3.38 billion yuan, up 147.96% year-on-year and 69.14% quarter-on-quarter [3][12]. - The profitability of the alumina segment has significantly increased, with alumina prices rising and contributing to the overall profit despite a slight decline in aluminum profit per ton [3][20]. - The company's integrated business model and resource security are highlighted as key advantages, with a focus on the potential for value reassessment under the "special valuation" framework [5][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Performance - In 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 237.07 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.88% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 12.4 billion yuan, up 85.38% year-on-year [7][20]. - The alumina segment contributed significantly to profits, with a gross profit of 19.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 236.4% [20]. 2. Q4 Performance Breakdown - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 3.38 billion yuan, with major profit-increasing factors including gross profit and fair value changes [4][33]. - The company proposed a dividend of 0.217 yuan per share, totaling 3.723 billion yuan, representing a payout ratio of 30.02% [4]. 3. Future Outlook - The company’s integrated layout provides significant resource security, with alumina reserves of approximately 2.7 billion tons and a self-sufficiency rate that continues to improve [5][39]. - The report anticipates net profits of 15.46 billion yuan, 17.68 billion yuan, and 19.57 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 8, 7, and 7 [6][7]. 4. Financial Health - The company has optimized its balance sheet, reducing short-term borrowings from 20.7 billion yuan at the end of 2020 to 3.1 billion yuan by the end of 2024 [5][54]. - The asset-liability ratio improved to 48.1% by the end of 2024, down 5.2 percentage points from the previous year [5][52].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][8]. Core Views - The company achieved a record performance in 2024, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.4 billion yuan, representing an 85.38% year-on-year increase [3][12]. - The significant increase in profits is largely attributed to the strong performance of the alumina segment, with a substantial rise in both production and pricing [5][20]. - The company's integrated business model and resource security are expected to enhance its valuation amid geopolitical uncertainties [5][39]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Performance - In 2024, the company reported a net profit of 12.4 billion yuan, with a non-recurring net profit of 11.979 billion yuan, both showing significant year-on-year growth [3][12]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a net profit of 3.383 billion yuan, marking a 147.96% increase year-on-year and a 69.14% increase quarter-on-quarter [3][12]. 2. Segment Contributions - The alumina segment's pre-tax profit reached 11.685 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.635 billion yuan, while the primary aluminum segment's pre-tax profit was 8.966 billion yuan, down 2.288 billion yuan year-on-year [3][20]. - The company produced 16.87 million tons of metallurgical-grade alumina in 2024, a 1.2% increase year-on-year, and 7.61 million tons of primary aluminum, a 12.08% increase year-on-year [22][39]. 3. Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 15.461 billion yuan, 17.675 billion yuan, and 19.569 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 8, 7, and 7 times [6][7]. - The integrated layout of the company is anticipated to provide significant resource security, with alumina reserves of approximately 2.7 billion tons and a self-sufficiency rate that continues to improve [5][39]. 4. Financial Health - The company's balance sheet has improved, with short-term borrowings reduced from 20.7 billion yuan at the end of 2020 to 3.1 billion yuan at the end of 2024 [5][54]. - The asset-liability ratio decreased to 48.1% by the end of 2024, down 5.2 percentage points from the previous year, indicating a stronger financial position [5][52].