2025Q4以来，国内铝均价21407元/吨，环比Q3提升3.4%，带动年内铝价提升至20646元/吨，相比25年 前三季度均价提升1.0%。 同时考虑后续"金三银四"旺季需求向好对价格的带动，认为当前下游买盘意愿越弱，或越有利于后续铝 价及利润中枢上行，看好电解铝板块2026年上半年利润延续走阔趋势。 电解铝相关港股： 中国宏桥(01378)：中国宏桥(01378)作为全球领先铝全产业链生产商，全产业链配套及规模优势打造盈 利护城河，铝土矿、电力、氧化铝高自给率保障公司吨铝成本优势。机构预计25-27年公司实现归母净 利润248.03亿元、258.1亿元、279.6亿元，分别同比+10.9%、4.1%、8.3%。 创新实业(02788)：2025年3月，创新实业规划与创新集团、创新新材（600361）等共同投资沙特红海铝 产业链综合项目，公司持有项目33.6%股权。国联民生（601456）证券表示，创新实业能源-氧化铝-电 解铝一体化布局，电解铝产能分布在能源成本具备优势的内蒙地区，未来随着绿电并网发电，电解铝成 本有望进一步下降。公司走向海外在沙特扩张电解铝产能，我们认为公司将成为行业内稀有的有电解铝 增 ...

Group 1: Aluminum Price Trends - The average domestic aluminum price in China reached 21,407 yuan/ton in Q4 2025, a 3.4% increase from Q3, contributing to an annual average price of 20,646 yuan/ton, up 1.0% compared to the first three quarters of 2025 [1] - On January 5, 2026, the domestic electrolytic aluminum price hit 23,300 yuan/ton, the highest level since March 2022 [1] - Institutions predict a tight balance in global aluminum supply and demand over the next two years due to supply constraints from power issues and surging energy storage demand [1] Group 2: Industry Growth Plans - The Shandong Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology issued a plan aiming for a 5% year-on-year growth in the added value of the non-ferrous metal industry by 2026, with aluminum industry revenue exceeding 660 billion yuan and over 35% of electrolytic aluminum capacity meeting benchmark energy efficiency standards [1] - Huatai Securities anticipates that the profit center for electrolytic aluminum will further increase in the first half of 2026, despite recent price surges leading to cautious purchasing behavior in the downstream industry [1][2] Group 3: Company-Specific Developments - China Hongqiao (01378) is a leading global aluminum producer with a strong profit moat due to its integrated supply chain, expecting net profits of 24.803 billion yuan, 25.81 billion yuan, and 27.96 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth of 10.9%, 4.1%, and 8.3% respectively [3] - Innovation Industry (02788) is expanding its electrolytic aluminum capacity in Saudi Arabia, with a focus on energy-efficient production, which is expected to lower costs further as green electricity is integrated [3] - Nanshan Aluminum International (02610) is developing a 1 million ton/year electrolytic aluminum project in Indonesia, with the first phase planned for 250,000 tons/year, backed by an existing alumina plant in the same industrial park [4] - China Aluminum (02600) holds approximately 2.7 billion tons of bauxite resources, with potential for revaluation under the "China Special Valuation" system, and is positioned to benefit from rising aluminum prices due to its integrated supply chain [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a current price of 9.91 yuan [7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 176.52 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.87 billion yuan, up 20.6% year-on-year [1]. - The increase in aluminum prices has significantly boosted profitability, with a gross margin of 17.3% for the first three quarters of 2025, up 2.1 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company has a strong integrated supply chain, with a high self-sufficiency rate in bauxite resources, enhancing its risk resilience [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 60.12 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.7% year-on-year, but a net profit of 3.80 billion yuan, reflecting a 90.0% increase year-on-year [1][2]. - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 18.4%, an increase of 6.7 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising aluminum prices [2]. Production and Pricing - The production of electrolytic aluminum reached 6 million tons in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.8% [2]. - The average aluminum price for the first three quarters of 2025 was 20,447 yuan per ton, up 3.7% year-on-year, with Q3 2025 averaging 20,710 yuan per ton, a 5.9% increase year-on-year [2]. Strategic Positioning - The company is focusing on resource security and has a significant bauxite resource of approximately 2.7 billion tons, with a self-sufficiency rate that continues to improve [4]. - The company is expected to benefit from a revaluation under the "special valuation" system due to its status as a key player in the national economy and ongoing state-owned enterprise reforms [4]. Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 14.54 billion yuan, 16.66 billion yuan, and 17.26 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 12, 10, and 10 [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - China Aluminum Corporation, the largest aluminum producer in China, expects a significant increase in net profit for Q1 2025, driven by extreme operational efficiency and precise market analysis [1] Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, the company anticipates a net profit of 3.4 to 3.6 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 53% to 63% [1] - The total profit for Q1 2025 is projected to be between 6.2 to 6.7 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30% to 40% [1] - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 63.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72.6% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q4 2024 was 3.38 billion yuan, up 147.96% year-on-year and 69.14% quarter-on-quarter [3] - For the full year 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 12.4 billion yuan, an increase of 85.38% year-on-year, with revenue reaching 237.07 billion yuan, up 5.3% [4] Production and Market Dynamics - In 2024, the production of alumina and primary aluminum increased to 16.87 million tons and 7.61 million tons, respectively [5] - The external sales of primary aluminum rose by 11.76% to 7.6 million tons, indicating strong market demand [5] - The market price of alumina showed an upward trend in 2024, with domestic prices peaking at 5,780 yuan per ton and averaging 4,084 yuan per ton, a year-on-year increase of 39.9% [6] - Internationally, the average price of alumina was $502 per ton, reflecting a 46% year-on-year increase [6] Strategic Insights - The company has successfully implemented extreme cost reduction and efficiency enhancement strategies, leading to substantial performance improvements despite fluctuations in raw material prices and global market conditions [6] - The investment in the Boffa project in Guinea is expected to yield high-quality bauxite with a long remaining exploitable life, contributing to the company's self-sufficiency in bauxite supply [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][8]. Core Views - The company achieved a record net profit of 12.4 billion yuan in 2024, representing an increase of 85.38% year-on-year. The fourth quarter saw a significant net profit of 3.38 billion yuan, up 147.96% year-on-year and 69.14% quarter-on-quarter [3][12]. - The profitability of the alumina segment has significantly increased, with alumina prices rising and contributing to the overall profit despite a slight decline in aluminum profit per ton [3][20]. - The company's integrated business model and resource security are highlighted as key advantages, with a focus on the potential for value reassessment under the "special valuation" framework [5][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Performance - In 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 237.07 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.88% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 12.4 billion yuan, up 85.38% year-on-year [7][20]. - The alumina segment contributed significantly to profits, with a gross profit of 19.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 236.4% [20]. 2. Q4 Performance Breakdown - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 3.38 billion yuan, with major profit-increasing factors including gross profit and fair value changes [4][33]. - The company proposed a dividend of 0.217 yuan per share, totaling 3.723 billion yuan, representing a payout ratio of 30.02% [4]. 3. Future Outlook - The company’s integrated layout provides significant resource security, with alumina reserves of approximately 2.7 billion tons and a self-sufficiency rate that continues to improve [5][39]. - The report anticipates net profits of 15.46 billion yuan, 17.68 billion yuan, and 19.57 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 8, 7, and 7 [6][7]. 4. Financial Health - The company has optimized its balance sheet, reducing short-term borrowings from 20.7 billion yuan at the end of 2020 to 3.1 billion yuan by the end of 2024 [5][54]. - The asset-liability ratio improved to 48.1% by the end of 2024, down 5.2 percentage points from the previous year [5][52].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][8]. Core Views - The company achieved a record performance in 2024, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.4 billion yuan, representing an 85.38% year-on-year increase [3][12]. - The significant increase in profits is largely attributed to the strong performance of the alumina segment, with a substantial rise in both production and pricing [5][20]. - The company's integrated business model and resource security are expected to enhance its valuation amid geopolitical uncertainties [5][39]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Performance - In 2024, the company reported a net profit of 12.4 billion yuan, with a non-recurring net profit of 11.979 billion yuan, both showing significant year-on-year growth [3][12]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a net profit of 3.383 billion yuan, marking a 147.96% increase year-on-year and a 69.14% increase quarter-on-quarter [3][12]. 2. Segment Contributions - The alumina segment's pre-tax profit reached 11.685 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.635 billion yuan, while the primary aluminum segment's pre-tax profit was 8.966 billion yuan, down 2.288 billion yuan year-on-year [3][20]. - The company produced 16.87 million tons of metallurgical-grade alumina in 2024, a 1.2% increase year-on-year, and 7.61 million tons of primary aluminum, a 12.08% increase year-on-year [22][39]. 3. Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 15.461 billion yuan, 17.675 billion yuan, and 19.569 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 8, 7, and 7 times [6][7]. - The integrated layout of the company is anticipated to provide significant resource security, with alumina reserves of approximately 2.7 billion tons and a self-sufficiency rate that continues to improve [5][39]. 4. Financial Health - The company's balance sheet has improved, with short-term borrowings reduced from 20.7 billion yuan at the end of 2020 to 3.1 billion yuan at the end of 2024 [5][54]. - The asset-liability ratio decreased to 48.1% by the end of 2024, down 5.2 percentage points from the previous year, indicating a stronger financial position [5][52].