机构观点 新湖期货： 消息面 库存方面，华东部分主港地区MEG港口库存约71.6万吨附近，环比上期增加3.0万吨，本期数据中不含宁波及嘉兴地区。12月22日至12月28日，主 港计划到货数量约为11.8万吨。 12月24日国内乙二醇总开工61.83%(降0.18%)，一体化63.45%(升0.53%)，煤化工59.09%(降1.38%)。 中国乙二醇装置周度产量在38.68万吨，较上周减少0.13万吨，环比减少0.33%。本周国内乙二醇总产能利用率61.71%，环比降0.22%。 总体来看，受预期不佳和库存累积影响，乙二醇价格近期连续下跌至近年来低位水平。目前乙二醇亏损幅度加大，有企业降负和公布检修计划， 低估值逐步影响至供应端，且有加大供应减量的迹象。总体来看，乙二醇估值低，当前商品氛围好转，价格低位反弹。 国投安信期货： 周度产量小幅下调，港口累库速度预期放缓，现实压力缓和。春节前后下游聚酯有降负预期，新年度依旧有较大量装置投产的预期下，乙二醇长 线依旧承压；二季度有集中检修及需求回升预期，供需或改善。 ...

【EGPF周度策略20251214】成本持续下跌叠加远月投产预期, 乙二醇价格持续下行 日期: 2025-12-14 ZHESHANG FUTURE 【EGPF周度策略20251214】成本持续下跌叠加远月投产预期，乙二醇价格持续下行 核心观点 2025-12-14 ● 合约: eq2605 ® 观点: MEG 下跌空间有限,在[3400]价位存在支撑 ® 逻辑： 在成本（油煤）隔弱、自身估值偏高，26年末投产背景下，EGO1价格持续承压，从现实来看，11-12月内累申幅或较划显。且远先仍有新装置投产预期压制，关注宏观层面以及装置变动, 基本面中长周朗看，26-21年乙三醇或进入到新一般的扩散用时，26年新股产约215万吨，2027年之后仍有不少大套装置计划股广，加古雷、中科，壳体等的工期项目，加回趣。中昆，天业之类的新闻的恐色成气氛必,二酶取 目，因此后期乙二醇价格更多呈现底部整理状态。 产业链操作建议 场外报价 入场价格 相关场外产品 参与角色 行为9向 情得向 贵略推荐 买卖 套保比例(%) 现货的口 套保衍生命 | 炼厂 | 库存管理 | 库存偏高，担心乙二醇下跌 | के | 可针对未卖出MEG库存 ...

Group 1: Ethylene Glycol Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: The price of the main ethylene glycol futures contract rose from 3,873 yuan/ton to 3,896 yuan/ton, a 0.59% increase. The spot price in East China remained flat at 3,900 yuan/ton, resulting in a basis (spot - futures) of +4 yuan/ton [2][50]. - **Open Interest and Trading Volume**: The trading volume of the main contract decreased significantly by 30.79% to 177,363 lots, and the open interest decreased by 5.45% to 289,511 lots, indicating a decline in market participation [2][37][38]. *** Group 2: Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate remained stable at 67.63%, with the coal - based operating rate at 54.29% and the oil - based operating rate at 76.23%. Coal - based profit improved significantly to 187 yuan/ton, a 66.34% increase, while losses in ethylene - based processes deepened [2][45][50]. - **Demand Side**: The load of downstream polyester factories was 89.42%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 63.43%, both remaining unchanged, indicating stable demand [2][3][50]. - **Inventory Side**: The inventory at the main ports in East China remained flat at 732,000 tons, while the inventory in Zhangjiagang increased by 10,000 tons to 285,000 tons, a 3.64% increase, slightly increasing the port inventory pressure [3][50]. *** Group 3: Price Trend Judgment The ethylene glycol price is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly upward pattern. The reasons are as follows: the stable supply - side operating rate and the improvement in coal - based profit may support production willingness; the stable demand - side load supports the fundamentals; although there is a slight increase in Zhangjiagang's inventory, the overall inventory pressure is controllable. However, the expanding losses in oil - based production may limit the upside potential, and cost changes need to be monitored [50].

1. Report Information - Report Date: August 11, 2025 [2] - Report Type: MEG Daily Report [1] 2. Research Team - Energy and Chemical Research Team: Composed of researchers including Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, and Feng Zeren [4] 3. Key Points from Each Section 3.1 Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Futures Market: On August 8, the closing price of the main contract EG2509 of ethylene glycol futures was 4384 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan; the closing price of EG2601 was 4422 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan. The trading volume of EG2509 was 80665 lots, and the open interest was 205326 lots, a decrease of 11475 lots. The open interest of EG2601 was 35818 lots, an increase of 2333 lots [7] - Market Outlook: Due to low support from the cost and supply - demand side of ethylene glycol in the short term and policy uncertainties at the macro - level, market participants are cautious. It is expected that the ethylene glycol price may maintain a weak trend [7] 3.2 Industry News - Crude Oil: On Thursday (August 7), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for September 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $63.88 per barrel, down $0.47 or 0.73%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $66.43 per barrel, down $0.46 or 0.69% [8] - Ethylene Glycol Market: The mainstream transaction price of ethylene glycol in the Zhangjiagang market was 4450 - 4465 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The negotiation range in the Dongguan market was 4350 - 4380 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton. The negotiation range in the Fujian market was also 4350 - 4380 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton [8]

Group 1 - Since mid-May, the recovery of spot prices for ethylene glycol has improved the operating conditions of domestic production enterprises, with coal-based ethylene glycol producers turning from a loss of 300 yuan/ton to a profit of 125 yuan/ton [1] - As of June 25, domestic ethylene glycol operating load was 62.97%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points year-on-year and up 8.75 percentage points from the low in early May [1] - Domestic ethylene glycol imports increased significantly, with 322.77 million tons imported from January to May, a year-on-year increase of 25.05% [1] Group 2 - The East China ethylene glycol market has been in a destocking phase since mid-April, with port inventory as of June 19 at 531,000 tons, down 28.69% year-on-year [2] - As of June 25, downstream polyester enterprises' operating load was 88.53%, down 4.88 percentage points from the May peak, indicating a decline in production activity [2] - Polyester industry inventory levels are low, with POY, FDY, and DTY stocks at 16.3 days, 19.8 days, and 25.6 days respectively, all lower than the previous year [2] Group 3 - The demand for ethylene glycol is expected to decline due to the seasonal slowdown in the garment weaving industry and insufficient orders in the polyester sector [3] - The recent price increase of ethylene glycol was mainly driven by geopolitical instability in the Middle East and cost support, but this support is weakening as the situation stabilizes [3] - Increased profits for ethylene glycol enterprises are leading to higher production and supply, suggesting a downward trend in ethylene glycol prices moving forward [3]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic ethylene glycol prices have experienced fluctuations in 2023, with a notable drop in early April, but a potential recovery is anticipated following positive developments in US-China trade talks [1][7]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The apparent consumption and production of domestic ethylene glycol have been increasing, with a projected demand growth of 590,000 tons from 2020 to 2024 due to the expansion of polyester production capacity [2]. - Domestic ethylene glycol production capacity is expected to rise from 15.54 million tons in 2020 to 27.92 million tons in 2024, leading to an oversupply situation and significant profit declines for companies [2]. - The overall operating rate for ethylene glycol production remains below 70%, with coal-based production facilities operating at around 50% due to ongoing losses [3]. Production Routes and Profitability - The production capacity of oil-based ethylene glycol accounts for two-thirds of the total capacity, and recent declines in international oil prices have improved profit margins for these facilities [4]. - Coal-based ethylene glycol has faced negative profit margins for the past four years, but recent decreases in coal prices have reduced losses and improved operating rates [5]. - Ethane-based production has advantages due to lower raw material costs, but recent tariffs have impacted sourcing from the US, prompting companies to seek alternatives [5]. Import Trends - The reliance on imports for ethylene glycol has decreased, with the import dependency rate falling to 25%-30% in recent years [6]. - In Q1 2023, ethylene glycol imports totaled 1.9626 million tons, a 42.73% increase year-on-year, with major suppliers being Saudi Arabia, the US, and Canada [6]. Market Outlook - Recent financial policies and improved US-China relations are expected to stabilize and potentially increase ethylene glycol prices [7]. - Despite supply-side pressures from domestic facility restarts, upcoming maintenance schedules and reduced port arrivals are likely to support price recovery [8]. - The textile industry, which accounts for about 50% of global production, is expected to drive demand for ethylene glycol, especially with easing trade tensions [8].

Core Viewpoint - Domestic ethylene glycol prices have experienced fluctuations in 2023, with a notable drop in early April, but a potential recovery is anticipated following positive developments in US-China trade talks [1][7] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The apparent consumption and production of domestic ethylene glycol have been increasing, with consumption projected to rise from 18.7 million tons in 2020 to 24.87 million tons in 2024, driven by a combined increase in polyester production capacity of 17.61 million tons [2] - Domestic ethylene glycol production capacity is expected to grow from 15.54 million tons in 2020 to 27.92 million tons in 2024, leading to an oversupply situation and significant profit declines for companies [2] - The net import volume of ethylene glycol is decreasing, from 10.48 million tons in 2020 to an estimated 6.39 million tons in 2024 [2] Production and Capacity Outlook - Total supply of ethylene glycol is projected to exceed 26 million tons in 2024, with an additional 2.4 million tons expected to come online by 2025, bringing total capacity to 30.32 million tons [3] - Despite the anticipated growth in production and demand, the overall operating rate in the domestic market remains below 70%, with coal-based ethylene glycol facilities operating at around 50% due to ongoing losses [3] Raw Material Route Differences - The domestic oil-based ethylene glycol production accounts for two-thirds of total capacity, with recent declines in international oil prices leading to improved profit margins for naphtha-integrated production [4] - Coal-based ethylene glycol has faced negative profit margins for the past four years, but recent decreases in coal prices have reduced losses and improved operating rates [4] - The ethane-based production route benefits from lower raw material costs, but recent tariffs have impacted sourcing from the US, prompting companies to seek alternatives [4] Import Dependency Trends - The import dependency for ethylene glycol has decreased significantly, with recent figures showing a reliance of 25% to 30% [5] - In Q1 2023, total ethylene glycol imports reached 1.9626 million tons, a 42.73% increase year-on-year, with major suppliers being Saudi Arabia, the US, and Canada [5] - The market is expected to remain influenced by domestic supply variables and import quantity changes, with a likelihood of narrow fluctuations in prices [5] Future Market Expectations - Recent financial policies and US-China diplomatic engagements are expected to stabilize and potentially increase ethylene glycol prices [6][7] - Analysts predict that despite supply-side pressures, upcoming maintenance schedules and reduced port arrivals may support price recovery, with a strong demand outlook from the polyester sector [7] - The textile industry in China, accounting for approximately 50% of global production, is expected to benefit from improved cost structures and demand recovery, further supporting ethylene glycol consumption [7]