Core Viewpoint - The textile and apparel industry is gradually resuming operations after the Spring Festival, with ethylene glycol's market performance closely tied to the recovery pace of downstream sectors. The market has experienced significant inventory accumulation due to seasonal factors, leading to downward pressure on spot prices. However, post-holiday recovery in downstream polyester and terminal sectors, along with increased maintenance in ethylene glycol production, suggests a marginal improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with optimistic long-term expectations. Nonetheless, the full recovery of terminal weaving, dyeing, and home textile sectors remains uncertain, necessitating further validation of demand rebound sustainability, as the market is currently in a phase of contention between bullish and bearish sentiments [3][12]. Inventory and Price Dynamics - Prior to the Spring Festival, ethylene glycol port inventory continued to accumulate, reaching 790,500 tons by February 12, an increase of 190,000 tons compared to the end of 2025. The commissioning of new production facilities in Ningxia and BASF also contributed to concentrated supply increments. The logistics disruptions during the holiday exacerbated inventory pressure, suppressing spot prices, which fell to approximately 3,585 yuan/ton [4][14]. - By February 26, the port inventory further increased to 861,500 tons, up 71,000 tons from February 12, indicating persistent near-term supply pressure despite a slight reduction in actual port arrivals during the holiday [4][14]. Demand Recovery and Supply Adjustments - Following the holiday, ethylene glycol demand began to recover as downstream sectors gradually resumed operations. By February 27, the polyester industry's operating rate rose to 77.41%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from the lowest point during the holiday, indicating a gradual release of essential procurement volumes for ethylene glycol [5][15]. - In March, planned maintenance of several ethylene glycol facilities is expected to alleviate supply pressure, with significant reductions anticipated. This, combined with the recovery in downstream demand, is likely to create a noticeable disparity, improving the supply-demand balance for ethylene glycol [7][17]. Future Outlook - Entering the second quarter, the scale of ethylene glycol maintenance is expected to expand, supported by the peak season for textiles and apparel, which will likely enhance inventory reduction. The static supply-demand balance suggests potential for price rebounds in the ethylene glycol market [7][17]. - However, it is crucial to monitor the recovery of downstream demand, as the return of frontline production staff is still ongoing, and the resumption of weaving, dyeing, and apparel sectors is relatively slower compared to previous years. The sustainability of demand recovery remains to be observed [10][20].

Inventory and Production - In East China, the MEG port inventory is approximately 716,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons compared to the previous period, excluding Ningbo and Jiaxing regions [1] - From December 22 to December 28, the planned arrival quantity at the main ports is about 118,000 tons [1] - The total operating rate of domestic ethylene glycol is 61.83%, a decrease of 0.18%, with integrated operations at 63.45% (up 0.53%) and coal chemical operations at 59.09% (down 1.38%) [1] - Weekly production of domestic ethylene glycol is 386,800 tons, a decrease of 1,300 tons from the previous week, with a utilization rate of 61.71%, down 0.22% [1] Market Outlook - According to New Lake Futures, ethylene glycol prices have recently dropped to low levels due to poor expectations and inventory accumulation, leading to increased losses for some companies, prompting them to reduce output and announce maintenance plans [3] - The low valuation of ethylene glycol is gradually affecting the supply side, with signs of increased supply reduction [3] - Guotou Anxin Futures notes a slight adjustment in weekly production and a slowdown in port inventory accumulation, easing immediate pressures [4] - There are expectations for reduced output in downstream polyester before and after the Spring Festival, while a significant number of new installations are expected to come online in the new year, keeping long-term ethylene glycol under pressure [4] - Anticipation of concentrated maintenance and demand recovery in the second quarter may improve supply and demand dynamics [4]

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The MEG has limited downside space and has support at the [3400] price level. In the context of weak cost (oil and coal), high self - valuation, and large - scale production in 2026, the EGO1 price is under continuous pressure. From a realistic perspective, the inventory accumulation amplitude from November to December is relatively obvious, and there is still pressure from the expectation of new device production in the far - month. In the medium - to - long - term fundamental cycle, ethylene glycol may enter a new expansion cycle from 2026 - 2027. New production in 2026 is about 2.15 million tons, and there are still many large - scale device production plans after 2027. Therefore, the ethylene glycol price will show a bottom - consolidation state later [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Single - side Situation EG - The explicit inventory has accumulated relatively quickly on a month - on - month basis, and the absolute level is still at a neutral level in the same period of history. The port shipment volume has slightly rebounded on a month - on - month basis this cycle, and the absolute level has reached a low level over the years. The MEG port inventory in the main ports of East China is about 795,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 70,000 tons). The ethylene glycol inventory of polyester factories has remained flat on a month - on - month basis, and the inventory days of downstream factories are about 14.2 days, with an overall slightly higher - than - neutral level. As of December 11, the overall ethylene glycol operating load in mainland China is 69.98% (a month - on - month decrease of 3.01%), and the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) is 72.17% (a month - on - month decrease of 0.41%). Many oil - based and coal - based devices have carried out or planned maintenance [7][8]. PF - This cycle, the price center of polyester raw materials has moved down, the short - fiber profit has slightly recovered on a month - on - month basis, and the finished - product inventory of downstream yarn mills has remained stable. The short - fiber load has remained high, and the absolute inventory level of short - fiber factories has decreased to a relatively neutral level. The profit of yarn mills has slightly recovered at a low level this cycle. The raw - material inventory of downstream yarn mills has remained stable on a month - on - month basis, and the finished - product inventory has run smoothly. The short - fiber production capacity expansion is limited from 2025 - 2026, and there is still support for the profit [9][66]. 2. MEG Key Concerns Supply - side Production Rhythm - Before the production: A 460,000 - ton syngas - to - ethylene glycol new device of Sichuan Wuguo Kai was put into production in the middle of the month and was included in the production and sales statistics in June; a 900,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol device of Shandong Yuxian Chemical was put into production in September and was included in the production base in October. As of November 2025, the newly added production capacity in the current year is 1.5 million tons, with a production - capacity growth rate of 5.2%. A 200,000 - ton/year coal - to - ethylene glycol new device of Ningxia Kunpeng is expected to be put into production by the end of the year. It is estimated that the total newly added production capacity in 2025 is 1.7 million tons, with a production - capacity growth rate of 5.9% [18]. Demand - side Production Rhythm - As of November 2025, the total polyester production capacity put into production in the downstream demand side is 2.55 million tons, including 1.25 million tons of polyester bottle - chips and 950,000 tons of polyester filament. As of November 2025, the newly added production capacity in the current year is 2.55 million tons, with a production - capacity growth rate of 3.0%. There is still about 2.5 million tons of polyester production capacity to be put into production this year, and the expected annual production - capacity growth rate is about 6% [19]. Cost Curve - The process with the largest production - capacity proportion is taken as the upper - marginal anchor of the price; the process cost with the highest coal - to - ethylene glycol profit is taken as the lower - marginal anchor of the price. The enterprise production - capacity proportion of the naphtha - to - ethylene method in the ethylene method is the largest, accounting for 60% of the total ethylene - glycol production capacity. The cost of the ethylene - glycol naphtha - to - ethylene method in East China is 5185 yuan/ton, and the profit is - 1200 yuan/ton. The cost of the single - chain coal - to - ethylene glycol in East China is 4480 yuan/ton, and the coal - to - ethylene glycol profit is - 870 yuan/ton [19]. 3. MEG Supply - and - Demand Situation Load - As of December 11, the overall ethylene glycol operating load in mainland China is 69.93% (a month - on - month decrease of 3.01%), and the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) is 72.17% (a month - on - month decrease of 0.41%). Many oil - based and coal - based devices have carried out or planned maintenance [30]. Inventory - The explicit inventory has accumulated relatively quickly on a month - on - month basis, and the absolute level is still at a neutral level in the same period of history. The port shipment volume has slightly rebounded on a month - on - month basis this cycle, and the absolute level has reached a low level over the years. The MEG port inventory in the main ports of East China is about 795,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 70,000 tons). The ethylene glycol inventory of polyester factories has remained flat on a month - on - month basis, and the inventory days of downstream factories are about 14.2 days, with an overall slightly higher - than - neutral level [34]. Direct Demand - Polyester Load - A set of polyester filament and short - fiber devices have been shut down for maintenance this week, and a set of long - shut - down filament devices is warming up for restart but has not produced products normally yet. In addition, the load of other devices has been adjusted locally. As of this Friday, the preliminary calculation shows that the polyester load in mainland China is around 91.2%. As of December 11, the average order days of terminal weaving are 11.90 days, a decrease of 0.41 days compared with last week. The current market sales are still mainly winter fabrics. The spring orders for domestic and foreign trade have started, but the overall order quantity is not good. The new orders are mainly "small and scattered orders", and large orders are scarce. The average order days this week have continued to decline compared with last week. As of December 11, the average inventory level of terminal weaving finished products (long - fiber market) is 25.58 days, an increase of 0.96 days compared with last week. The large winter orders for domestic and foreign trade are scarce, and the current situation is mainly based on rigid - demand replenishment and previous contract delivery. The new large - batch orders are scarce, and the finished - product grey - cloth inventory has slowly climbed to 20 - 30 days. The market generally expects that there will be no improvement before the Spring Festival. As of December 11, the average inventory level of terminal weaving enterprise raw materials (polyester filament) is about 9.50 days, remaining stable compared with last week [40]. Direct Demand - Polyester Inventory - The absolute level of polyester inventory is relatively neutral [46]. Spread and Basis - When approaching the risk - free arbitrage opportunity, a positive spread can be arranged for MEG month - spread; the MEG basis reflects the spot situation, but due to the mature basis trade, the overall fluctuation is small; the MEG open interest reflects the degree of long - short divergence [52]. 4. PF Situation Valuation - From 2025 - 2026, the short - fiber production capacity expansion is limited, and there is still support for the profit. This cycle, the price center of polyester raw materials has moved down, the short - fiber profit has slightly recovered on a month - on - month basis, and the finished - product inventory of downstream yarn mills has remained stable. The short - fiber load has remained high, and the absolute inventory level of short - fiber factories has decreased to a relatively neutral level. The profit of yarn mills has slightly recovered at a low level this cycle. The raw - material inventory of downstream yarn mills has remained stable on a month - on - month basis, and the finished - product inventory has run smoothly [65][66]. Supply - The short - fiber supply has remained at a high level, and the absolute inventory has decreased to a relatively neutral level [78]. Downstream - The profit of downstream yarn mills has run stably this cycle, and the yarn - mill load has remained stable. The raw - material inventory of downstream yarn mills has slightly decreased on a month - on - month basis, and the finished - product inventory has slightly accumulated. Currently, the absolute inventory level has a slightly higher pressure [84][90]. Spread and Basis - Information on PF2601 basis, PF1 - 2 month - spread, 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber processing fee, and PF2601 disk profit is provided, but specific analysis is not given in the summary [67][69].

Group 1: Ethylene Glycol Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: The price of the main ethylene glycol futures contract rose from 3,873 yuan/ton to 3,896 yuan/ton, a 0.59% increase. The spot price in East China remained flat at 3,900 yuan/ton, resulting in a basis (spot - futures) of +4 yuan/ton [2][50]. - **Open Interest and Trading Volume**: The trading volume of the main contract decreased significantly by 30.79% to 177,363 lots, and the open interest decreased by 5.45% to 289,511 lots, indicating a decline in market participation [2][37][38]. *** Group 2: Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate remained stable at 67.63%, with the coal - based operating rate at 54.29% and the oil - based operating rate at 76.23%. Coal - based profit improved significantly to 187 yuan/ton, a 66.34% increase, while losses in ethylene - based processes deepened [2][45][50]. - **Demand Side**: The load of downstream polyester factories was 89.42%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 63.43%, both remaining unchanged, indicating stable demand [2][3][50]. - **Inventory Side**: The inventory at the main ports in East China remained flat at 732,000 tons, while the inventory in Zhangjiagang increased by 10,000 tons to 285,000 tons, a 3.64% increase, slightly increasing the port inventory pressure [3][50]. *** Group 3: Price Trend Judgment The ethylene glycol price is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly upward pattern. The reasons are as follows: the stable supply - side operating rate and the improvement in coal - based profit may support production willingness; the stable demand - side load supports the fundamentals; although there is a slight increase in Zhangjiagang's inventory, the overall inventory pressure is controllable. However, the expanding losses in oil - based production may limit the upside potential, and cost changes need to be monitored [50].

1. Report Information - Report Date: August 11, 2025 [2] - Report Type: MEG Daily Report [1] 2. Research Team - Energy and Chemical Research Team: Composed of researchers including Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, and Feng Zeren [4] 3. Key Points from Each Section 3.1 Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Futures Market: On August 8, the closing price of the main contract EG2509 of ethylene glycol futures was 4384 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan; the closing price of EG2601 was 4422 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan. The trading volume of EG2509 was 80665 lots, and the open interest was 205326 lots, a decrease of 11475 lots. The open interest of EG2601 was 35818 lots, an increase of 2333 lots [7] - Market Outlook: Due to low support from the cost and supply - demand side of ethylene glycol in the short term and policy uncertainties at the macro - level, market participants are cautious. It is expected that the ethylene glycol price may maintain a weak trend [7] 3.2 Industry News - Crude Oil: On Thursday (August 7), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for September 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $63.88 per barrel, down $0.47 or 0.73%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $66.43 per barrel, down $0.46 or 0.69% [8] - Ethylene Glycol Market: The mainstream transaction price of ethylene glycol in the Zhangjiagang market was 4450 - 4465 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The negotiation range in the Dongguan market was 4350 - 4380 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton. The negotiation range in the Fujian market was also 4350 - 4380 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton [8]

Group 1 - Since mid-May, the recovery of spot prices for ethylene glycol has improved the operating conditions of domestic production enterprises, with coal-based ethylene glycol producers turning from a loss of 300 yuan/ton to a profit of 125 yuan/ton [1] - As of June 25, domestic ethylene glycol operating load was 62.97%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points year-on-year and up 8.75 percentage points from the low in early May [1] - Domestic ethylene glycol imports increased significantly, with 322.77 million tons imported from January to May, a year-on-year increase of 25.05% [1] Group 2 - The East China ethylene glycol market has been in a destocking phase since mid-April, with port inventory as of June 19 at 531,000 tons, down 28.69% year-on-year [2] - As of June 25, downstream polyester enterprises' operating load was 88.53%, down 4.88 percentage points from the May peak, indicating a decline in production activity [2] - Polyester industry inventory levels are low, with POY, FDY, and DTY stocks at 16.3 days, 19.8 days, and 25.6 days respectively, all lower than the previous year [2] Group 3 - The demand for ethylene glycol is expected to decline due to the seasonal slowdown in the garment weaving industry and insufficient orders in the polyester sector [3] - The recent price increase of ethylene glycol was mainly driven by geopolitical instability in the Middle East and cost support, but this support is weakening as the situation stabilizes [3] - Increased profits for ethylene glycol enterprises are leading to higher production and supply, suggesting a downward trend in ethylene glycol prices moving forward [3]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic ethylene glycol prices have experienced fluctuations in 2023, with a notable drop in early April, but a potential recovery is anticipated following positive developments in US-China trade talks [1][7]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The apparent consumption and production of domestic ethylene glycol have been increasing, with a projected demand growth of 590,000 tons from 2020 to 2024 due to the expansion of polyester production capacity [2]. - Domestic ethylene glycol production capacity is expected to rise from 15.54 million tons in 2020 to 27.92 million tons in 2024, leading to an oversupply situation and significant profit declines for companies [2]. - The overall operating rate for ethylene glycol production remains below 70%, with coal-based production facilities operating at around 50% due to ongoing losses [3]. Production Routes and Profitability - The production capacity of oil-based ethylene glycol accounts for two-thirds of the total capacity, and recent declines in international oil prices have improved profit margins for these facilities [4]. - Coal-based ethylene glycol has faced negative profit margins for the past four years, but recent decreases in coal prices have reduced losses and improved operating rates [5]. - Ethane-based production has advantages due to lower raw material costs, but recent tariffs have impacted sourcing from the US, prompting companies to seek alternatives [5]. Import Trends - The reliance on imports for ethylene glycol has decreased, with the import dependency rate falling to 25%-30% in recent years [6]. - In Q1 2023, ethylene glycol imports totaled 1.9626 million tons, a 42.73% increase year-on-year, with major suppliers being Saudi Arabia, the US, and Canada [6]. Market Outlook - Recent financial policies and improved US-China relations are expected to stabilize and potentially increase ethylene glycol prices [7]. - Despite supply-side pressures from domestic facility restarts, upcoming maintenance schedules and reduced port arrivals are likely to support price recovery [8]. - The textile industry, which accounts for about 50% of global production, is expected to drive demand for ethylene glycol, especially with easing trade tensions [8].

Core Viewpoint - Domestic ethylene glycol prices have experienced fluctuations in 2023, with a notable drop in early April, but a potential recovery is anticipated following positive developments in US-China trade talks [1][7] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The apparent consumption and production of domestic ethylene glycol have been increasing, with consumption projected to rise from 18.7 million tons in 2020 to 24.87 million tons in 2024, driven by a combined increase in polyester production capacity of 17.61 million tons [2] - Domestic ethylene glycol production capacity is expected to grow from 15.54 million tons in 2020 to 27.92 million tons in 2024, leading to an oversupply situation and significant profit declines for companies [2] - The net import volume of ethylene glycol is decreasing, from 10.48 million tons in 2020 to an estimated 6.39 million tons in 2024 [2] Production and Capacity Outlook - Total supply of ethylene glycol is projected to exceed 26 million tons in 2024, with an additional 2.4 million tons expected to come online by 2025, bringing total capacity to 30.32 million tons [3] - Despite the anticipated growth in production and demand, the overall operating rate in the domestic market remains below 70%, with coal-based ethylene glycol facilities operating at around 50% due to ongoing losses [3] Raw Material Route Differences - The domestic oil-based ethylene glycol production accounts for two-thirds of total capacity, with recent declines in international oil prices leading to improved profit margins for naphtha-integrated production [4] - Coal-based ethylene glycol has faced negative profit margins for the past four years, but recent decreases in coal prices have reduced losses and improved operating rates [4] - The ethane-based production route benefits from lower raw material costs, but recent tariffs have impacted sourcing from the US, prompting companies to seek alternatives [4] Import Dependency Trends - The import dependency for ethylene glycol has decreased significantly, with recent figures showing a reliance of 25% to 30% [5] - In Q1 2023, total ethylene glycol imports reached 1.9626 million tons, a 42.73% increase year-on-year, with major suppliers being Saudi Arabia, the US, and Canada [5] - The market is expected to remain influenced by domestic supply variables and import quantity changes, with a likelihood of narrow fluctuations in prices [5] Future Market Expectations - Recent financial policies and US-China diplomatic engagements are expected to stabilize and potentially increase ethylene glycol prices [6][7] - Analysts predict that despite supply-side pressures, upcoming maintenance schedules and reduced port arrivals may support price recovery, with a strong demand outlook from the polyester sector [7] - The textile industry in China, accounting for approximately 50% of global production, is expected to benefit from improved cost structures and demand recovery, further supporting ethylene glycol consumption [7]