一、行情回顾 三、机构观点 正信期货：尽管原油与煤炭价格仍处高位，但成本对乙二醇的支撑作用持续弱化；供需格局来看，供应端增量预期较强，新装置稳步放量、检修 产能陆续回归，而需求端受织造淡季深化及春节临近影响，聚酯开工负荷下滑预期较强。华东主港库存延续累库预期，缺乏有效去库驱动。在远 期供需宽松格局主导下，预计春节前乙二醇将以偏弱震荡为主，关注节后下游复工节奏及新增产能实际释放进度。 上一交易日，乙二醇期货主力合约震荡下跌，跌幅1.4%。 二、基本面汇总 1月14日早间乙二醇市场商谈氛围震荡偏强运行。基差表现平稳。现货商谈3705-3708；基差05-148/148；1月下基差05-138/140；2月下基差05- 89/91；3月下基差05-40/43。(单位：元/吨) 1月12日，新疆恒联年产120万吨(一期60万吨)煤制乙二醇项目气化装置和乙二醇装置工艺包开工会在西安举行。项目以氢气、一氧化碳为原料， 采用航天迈未气化工艺。 美金方面，乙二醇外盘重心震荡走弱，市场商谈一般。早间近期船货商谈在448美元/吨附近，午后盘面持续下行，近期到港船货成交至438美元/ 吨附近，2月船货商谈回落至442-443美元/ ...

成本端受原油与煤炭价格走强支撑，乙二醇下方有底；但需求步入传统淡季，聚酯产销疲软，织机开机 下滑，叠加春节临近，下游负反馈压力加大。短期供需弱平衡，关注节后需求恢复与进口兑现情况。 1、终端季节性淡季，聚酯开工下降预期较强 截至1月9日，江浙地区化纤织造综合开工率为57.89%，较前期继续回落，已连续七周下行。当前行业 整体淡季，终端需求缺乏实质性支撑，下游织厂普遍以消化库存、回笼资金为主，目前仅少量冬季服装 面料尚在收尾生产，新单跟进明显不足。受春节假期临近影响，多数企业计划于1月中旬后陆续放假， 部分中小工厂甚至提前进入半停工状态。 受终端需求疲软拖累，聚酯企业产销持续清淡，现货采购情绪谨慎。一方面，原料成本支撑走弱，叠加 下游补货意愿低迷；另一方面，终端成品库存压力上升，织造端开工率持续回落，对聚酯原料的采购节 奏明显放缓。从聚酯工厂的检修计划来看，截至2026年1月底有858万吨/年聚酯产能计划在1月中下旬至 2月期间进行春节检修或阶段性停车，占行业总产能比例约9.7%。其中，恒逸、桐昆、三房巷、浙江古 纤道等多家龙头企业均安排了为期20天左右的集中检修。2月仍有115万吨/年产能进入停检周期，合计 ...

12月9日，国内期市能化板块大面积飘绿。其中，乙二醇期货呈现震荡下行走势，截至发稿主力合约报 3645.00元/吨，跌幅1.65%。 需求方面，中辉期货分析称，下游需求尚可但预期走弱，其中聚酯开工维持高位，但织造开工负荷持续 下行，订单延续走弱态势。 展望后市，宏源期货表示，后续伴随下游进入淡季，需求端存在逐步转弱预期，国内装置检修无法对冲 进口货源的增量，本月乙二醇供需格局表现中性。又于煤价同样下跌，所有煤制装置的检修不及预期， 开工没有出现明显下滑。预计短期乙二醇低位运行为主，关注装置的边际变动。 美金方面，据新湖期货介绍，乙二醇外盘重心低位运行，近期货源成交为主。日内近期船货438-439美 元/吨附近成交，12月底1月初船货商谈在442-444美元/吨附近，贸易商及融资商参与买盘为主。 供应端方面，西南期货指出，乙二醇整体开工负荷在72.93%(环比上期下降0.2%)，其中草酸催化加氢法 (合成气)制乙二醇开工负荷在72.58%(环比上期上升0.55%)，宁夏一套20万吨乙二醇新装置预计于12.5出 料，该装置于11月份投料试车。 ...

后市来看，乙二醇期货行情将如何运行，相关机构观点汇总如下： 国投安信期货指出，乙二醇周产量环比提升明显，一体化和合成气法均有增长，供应再度施压。华东乙 烯法装置落实检修，需求处于下行期，春节前后延续累库预期，中期弱势难改，但价格低位，继续下行 空间有限；新年度乙二醇装置计划投产量较高，长线过剩压力再度显现。 光大期货表示，12月上旬存在沙特货、加拿大货集中抵港，库存难见持续性下降。乙二醇国内装置检修 降负较多，供需格局较前期修复，需求韧性，预计乙二醇价格宽幅调整。 12月5日，国内期市能化板块多数飘绿。其中，乙二醇期货主力合约开盘报3820.00元/吨，今日盘中低 位震荡运行；截至发稿，乙二醇主力最高触及3826.00元，下方探低3748.00元，跌幅达1.91%附近。 上一个交易日乙二醇市场商谈氛围清淡，张家港乙二醇现货价格下跌16元/吨收至3813元/吨。 江苏一套100万吨/年的MEG装置近期已停车，停车时间将持续至2026年二季度。美国一套110万吨/年的 乙二醇装置降负荷运行至7成附近，此外一套36万吨/年的装置仍在检修中，暂无明确重启时间。 截至12月4日，华东主港地区乙二醇库存总量71.9万吨， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The current maintenance of ethylene glycol plants has led to an expansion of supply reduction, and the supply - demand structure is relatively good. Polyester production remains at a high level. The result of the Sino - US trade negotiation exceeded market expectations, the terminal export expectation was repaired, orders were advanced, and the stocking demand may increase significantly. Under strong expectations, ethylene glycol should be treated with cautious optimism, and the actual arrival rhythm of ports should be continuously monitored [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Price**: The price of the main ethylene glycol futures contract fell slightly by 0.39% to 4,398 yuan/ton, while the spot price in the East China market rose by 35 yuan to 4,575 yuan/ton, and the basis widened to 172 yuan/ton [2] - **Supply**: Multiple ethylene glycol production facilities are under maintenance. As of May 15, the overall ethylene glycol operating load in mainland China was 60.51% (down 8.48% from the previous period). From May 12 - 18, the planned arrival volume at major ports was about 5.5 tons [2] - **Demand**: The polyester factory load was 94.2%. The domestic weaving comprehensive operating rate was around 63.80%, up 63.80% from last week. The comprehensive operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 60.68%, up 0.62% from last week [3] - **Inventory**: As of May 18, the inventory at major ports in East China was about 74.3 tons, a decrease of 0.8 tons from the previous period [3] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Futures and Spot**: The main ethylene glycol futures contract price decreased by 0.39%, the trading volume decreased by 16.16%, and the open interest decreased by 1.49%. The spot price in the East China market increased by 0.77%, and the basis increased by 10.97% [5] - **Profit**: The ethylene - based production profit decreased by 0.92%, while the coal - based production profit remained unchanged [5] - **Operating Rate**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate, coal - based and oil - based operating rates, polyester factory load, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom load remained unchanged [5] - **Inventory and Arrival**: The inventory at major ports in East China decreased by 4.08%, and the arrival volume increased by 26.32% [5] 3. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on the closing price and basis of the main ethylene glycol contract, ethylene glycol production profit, and the operating rate of downstream polyester plants [6][8][10] 4. Appendix: Big Model Inference Process - The ethylene glycol futures price decreased, the spot price increased, and the basis widened. The production profit was in a loss state, which may affect the future operating rate. The overall supply was stable, and the demand showed limited growth. The port inventory decreased, but the increase in arrival volume may bring subsequent pressure. Overall, ethylene glycol may maintain a volatile trend [13][15][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but considering the current relatively low Treasury bond yields, China's economic recovery trend, and the possibility of tariff adjustments, it is recommended to remain cautious [6]. - Despite the impact of tariffs on the domestic economic recovery rhythm and the increase in global recession risks, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [9]. - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals continues, and it is recommended to go long on gold futures on dips [12]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds, and for iron ore, they can focus on buying opportunities at low levels [14][17]. - For coking coal and coke, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [19]. - For ferroalloys, consider opportunities in out - of - the - money call options for manganese silicon and short - covering opportunities for ferrosilicon [22]. - Consider going long on the main contracts of crude oil and fuel oil [25][27]. - Synthetic rubber and natural rubber are expected to be in a weak and volatile state, PVC is expected to be in a bottom - oscillating state, and urea requires attention to export changes [28][29][34]. - For PX, PTA, and other chemical products, consider range - bound operations [38][39]. - For ethylene glycol, short - term bottom - oscillating is expected, and cautious participation is recommended [41]. - For short - fiber and bottle - chip, they are expected to follow the cost side and oscillate, and cautious participation is recommended [42][43]. - For soda ash, short - term disk adjustments may occur, and short - sellers at low levels should adjust their positions [46]. - For glass, the post - holiday market sentiment is expected to be weak [47]. - For caustic soda, pay attention to enterprise inventory and delivery volume data changes [48]. - For pulp, the market is in a weak pattern [51]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to be in a weak operation [52]. - Consider going long on the main contract of Shanghai copper, and have a bearish and oscillating view on tin [56][57]. - Nickel is expected to remain in a supply - surplus pattern, and industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to continue to decline in price [58][59]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, adopt a wait - and - see attitude for soybean meal and consider out - of - the - money call options for soybean oil at the bottom [61]. - Consider the opportunity to widen the soybean oil - palm oil spread, and consider buying opportunities for rapeseed meal after a pullback [63][65]. - For cotton, sugar, apples, and other agricultural products, a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [67][71][74]. - For live pigs, consider waiting and seeing, and for eggs, consider reverse - spread opportunities [77][79]. - For corn and corn starch, a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [81]. - For logs, the market is in a weak state with no obvious driving force [84]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, most Treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted 405 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations on May 6, with a net withdrawal of 682 billion yuan. The Caixin China Services PMI in April was 50.7, and the comprehensive PMI output index declined, indicating a slowdown in the expansion of domestic enterprise production and operation activities [5]. - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but considering various factors, it is recommended to remain cautious, and the volatility is expected to increase [6][7]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The market is worried about the decline in corporate profit growth due to tariffs, but domestic asset valuations are low, and policies have hedging space. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [8][9][10]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The complex global trade and financial environment, the increase in the risk of global recession due to tariffs, and the possible passive easing of monetary policies are expected to drive up the price of gold. It is recommended to go long on gold futures on dips [11][12][13]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The downward trend of the real estate industry suppresses the price of rebar, but the peak - season demand may provide short - term support. The valuation of steel prices is low, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [14]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated. The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in supply and inventory support the price. The valuation of iron ore is relatively high, and investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels [16][17]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell sharply. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the trading atmosphere has weakened. The shipment of coke has improved, but the possibility of further price increases is low. The futures may continue to decline, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [19]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures fell. The supply of ferroalloys is still high, and the demand is weak. The supply of manganese ore may be disturbed. Consider opportunities in out - of - the - money call options for manganese silicon and short - covering opportunities for ferrosilicon [21][22]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fell sharply due to OPEC's plan to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June. The increase in production may lead to price fluctuations, but factors such as Sino - US talks are favorable for crude oil. Consider going long on the main contract [23][24][25]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil followed crude oil and fell sharply. The reduction in Singapore's inventory may support the price, and the relaxation of US sanctions on Russia may be negative for high - sulfur fuel oil. Consider going long on the main contract [26][27]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber rose. The supply pressure continues, the demand improvement is limited, and the cost side rebounds. It is expected to oscillate weakly [28][29]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The global supply is expected to increase, and the demand is affected by tariffs. It is expected to oscillate weakly [29][30]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures fell. The supply pressure eases marginally, the demand recovers weakly, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [31][34]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures rose. The approach of the summer corn fertilizer preparation period and potential Indian tenders may affect the price. Pay attention to export policy changes [35][36]. PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures fell. PX devices are under centralized maintenance, and the downstream demand has improved. It is expected to follow the cost side and oscillate, and range - bound operations are recommended [37][38]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures fell. The supply is affected by device maintenance, the demand is affected by tariffs, and the cost side is under pressure. It is expected to oscillate, and range - bound operations are recommended [39]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell. The supply is expected to increase, the inventory is high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and cautious participation is recommended [40][41]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures fell. The supply is at a relatively high level, the demand is weak, and it is expected to follow the cost side and oscillate. Cautious participation is recommended [42]. Bottle - Chip - On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures fell. The cost support is insufficient, the supply is increasing, and the demand is gradually recovering. It is expected to follow the cost side and oscillate [43]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, soda ash futures fell. In May, device maintenance will be concentrated, which may lead to short - term disk adjustments. The supply is high, and the inventory is stable [44][46]. Glass - On the previous trading day, glass futures fell. The production line is at a low level, the demand is weak, and the post - holiday market sentiment is expected to be weak [47]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures rose. Some devices will enter the maintenance period in May, and the demand is limited. Pay attention to enterprise inventory and delivery volume data changes [48][49]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, pulp futures fell. The inventory is accumulating, the supply is increasing, and the market is in a weak pattern [50][51]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures fell. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and it is expected to be in a weak operation [52]. Copper - On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated upward. Although the ICSG expects a supply surplus of refined copper, Sino - US talks may boost demand. Consider going long on the main contract [53][55][56]. Tin - On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin rose. The supply shortage may ease with the resumption of mines, and the downstream demand is affected by Sino - US trade. A bearish and oscillating view is taken [57]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel fell. The cost support is strong, but the demand may weaken in the off - season. It is expected to remain in a supply - surplus pattern [58]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - On the previous trading day, industrial silicon and polysilicon futures continued to decline. The demand in the industrial chain is weak, the supply decline is limited, and the price is expected to continue to be under pressure [59]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, soybean oil and soybean meal futures fell. The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, the demand for soybean oil and soybean meal is expected to increase slightly. Adopt a wait - and - see attitude for soybean meal and consider out - of - the money call options for soybean oil at the bottom [60][61]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil prices fell. The market is concerned about the May production outlook, and the inventory may increase. Consider the opportunity to widen the soybean oil - palm oil spread [62][63]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices fell. The import of rapeseed in the EU has increased, and China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed products. Consider buying opportunities for rapeseed meal after a pullback [64][65]. Cotton - The domestic cotton market showed a volatile trend. The planting area in China has increased, and the demand is affected by tariffs. A wait - and - see attitude is recommended [66][67][68]. Sugar - The domestic sugar market showed a volatile trend. Brazil is entering the production acceleration period, and the sugar production in India is lower than expected. The domestic inventory is neutral, and a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [69][71][72]. Apples - The domestic apple futures showed a sharp rise and then a fall. The cold - storage inventory is low, and the new - year production increase is expected. A wait - and - see attitude is recommended [73][74][75]. Live Pigs - The price of live pigs showed a slight decline. The supply may increase after the holiday, and the demand will enter a short - term off - season. Consider waiting and seeing [76][77]. Eggs - The price of eggs fell. The supply is expected to increase in May, and the pre - holiday stocking may provide support. Consider reverse - spread opportunities [78][79]. Corn and Corn Starch - Corn futures closed flat, and corn starch futures rose. The supply of corn is expected to be in a surplus state, and the demand is weak. A wait - and - see attitude is recommended [80][81]. Logs - On the previous trading day, log futures rose. The supply is affected by holidays and weather, and the demand is weak. The market is in a weak state with no obvious driving force [82][83][84].