乙二醇供需格局

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乙二醇日报:进口到港量缩减叠加装置集中检修,乙二醇供需格局良好-20250520
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-05-20 09:22
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The current maintenance of ethylene glycol plants has led to an expansion of supply reduction, and the supply - demand structure is relatively good. Polyester production remains at a high level. The result of the Sino - US trade negotiation exceeded market expectations, the terminal export expectation was repaired, orders were advanced, and the stocking demand may increase significantly. Under strong expectations, ethylene glycol should be treated with cautious optimism, and the actual arrival rhythm of ports should be continuously monitored [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Price**: The price of the main ethylene glycol futures contract fell slightly by 0.39% to 4,398 yuan/ton, while the spot price in the East China market rose by 35 yuan to 4,575 yuan/ton, and the basis widened to 172 yuan/ton [2] - **Supply**: Multiple ethylene glycol production facilities are under maintenance. As of May 15, the overall ethylene glycol operating load in mainland China was 60.51% (down 8.48% from the previous period). From May 12 - 18, the planned arrival volume at major ports was about 5.5 tons [2] - **Demand**: The polyester factory load was 94.2%. The domestic weaving comprehensive operating rate was around 63.80%, up 63.80% from last week. The comprehensive operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 60.68%, up 0.62% from last week [3] - **Inventory**: As of May 18, the inventory at major ports in East China was about 74.3 tons, a decrease of 0.8 tons from the previous period [3] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Futures and Spot**: The main ethylene glycol futures contract price decreased by 0.39%, the trading volume decreased by 16.16%, and the open interest decreased by 1.49%. The spot price in the East China market increased by 0.77%, and the basis increased by 10.97% [5] - **Profit**: The ethylene - based production profit decreased by 0.92%, while the coal - based production profit remained unchanged [5] - **Operating Rate**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate, coal - based and oil - based operating rates, polyester factory load, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom load remained unchanged [5] - **Inventory and Arrival**: The inventory at major ports in East China decreased by 4.08%, and the arrival volume increased by 26.32% [5] 3. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on the closing price and basis of the main ethylene glycol contract, ethylene glycol production profit, and the operating rate of downstream polyester plants [6][8][10] 4. Appendix: Big Model Inference Process - The ethylene glycol futures price decreased, the spot price increased, and the basis widened. The production profit was in a loss state, which may affect the future operating rate. The overall supply was stable, and the demand showed limited growth. The port inventory decreased, but the increase in arrival volume may bring subsequent pressure. Overall, ethylene glycol may maintain a volatile trend [13][15][16]