丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨永兴材料（002756.SZ） [Table_Title] 成本领先优势巩固，盈利能力韧性十足——永兴 材料 2025 年中报点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司发布 2025 年中报，2025Q2 公司实现归母净利 2.09 亿元，同比-30%，环比+9%；扣非归 母净利 1.45 亿元，同比-51%，环比-20%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 王鹤涛 赵超 王筱茜 肖百桓 周相君 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490519080004 SAC：S0490522080001 SAC：S0490525080007 SFC：BQT626 SFC：BUY139 SFC：BWM115 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 永兴材料（002756.SZ） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 成本领先优势巩固，盈利能力韧性十足 2] ——永 兴材料 2025 年中报点评 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 公司发 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market needs to revise its price expectations for lithium carbonate as futures prices hit a new high of 90,000 yuan/ton due to production suspension news, while multiple lithium salt projects are ramping up capacity, stabilizing supply [3]. Supply Expansion - China Minmetals has officially started a 40,000-ton lithium salt steam transportation project, which will fully release 115,000 tons/year lithium salt capacity from China's salt lakes by October [4]. - Chuaneng Power's De'a Lithium Industry has successfully debugged its production of qualified battery-grade lithium salt, with a capacity of 15,000 tons/year for both lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide expected to reach full production in August [4]. - Ganfeng Lithium's lithium extraction project in Xuanhan County, Sichuan, is expected to produce 45,000 tons of battery-grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide this year [5]. - Zijin Lithium Yuan plans to launch a 25,000-ton battery-grade lithium carbonate project by December, while Yahua Group's new 30,000-ton lithium hydroxide production line will be completed within the year [5]. - These five projects will contribute an additional 170,000 tons of lithium salt capacity for the year [6]. Future Supply Projections - The market anticipates that by 2025, an additional 260,000 tons of lithium carbonate supply will be added domestically, bringing total production to 800,000 tons, accounting for nearly 70% of global output [7]. Cost and Production Insights - The share of low-cost lithium salt production is increasing, with salt lake lithium extraction becoming a significant source of new capacity due to its lower operating costs [8]. - The largest soluble potassium and magnesium salt deposit, the Qarhan Salt Lake, has historically suffered from technical bottlenecks, but the new steam project by China Minmetals is expected to enhance lithium recovery by 25% and reduce production costs by 12,000 yuan/ton [8]. - Ganfeng Lithium has been actively investing in low-cost lithium mines, with its Mariana salt lake project producing 20,000 tons of lithium chloride this year [8]. Market Dynamics - Recent fluctuations in lithium spodumene prices have seen a significant rebound, with prices rising from 5,550 yuan/ton to 7,500 yuan/ton, marking the largest weekly increase of the year [11]. - Current market prices for lithium carbonate hover around 80,000 yuan/ton, with spodumene extraction still maintaining profit margins [11]. - The new mineral resources law has increased costs for low-grade lithium mica mines, leading to a projected 50% reduction in production capacity by 2025 [11]. Supply and Demand Balance - The oversupply situation for lithium carbonate is unlikely to change in the short term, but the extent of the oversupply may narrow by 2025 [16]. - The balance between upstream capacity release and downstream demand expansion will determine the price turning point for lithium carbonate [13]. - Recent inventory data shows that domestic lithium carbonate weekly inventory remains high at 140,000 tons, with a slight decrease of 0.5% [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, highlighting its cost advantages as a leading lithium mica producer and the ongoing expansion of its integrated operations [4][6]. Core Viewpoints - The company reported a revenue of 3.69 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 400 million yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 17.8% and 47.8% respectively. However, the second quarter showed a revenue increase of 6.5% year-on-year [1]. - The lithium segment experienced a 10.3% decrease in sales volume, with average prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate dropping significantly in the first half of 2025. The company has implemented strategies to mitigate price fluctuations and optimize costs across its operations [2]. - The special steel segment saw a revenue of 2.83 billion yuan, maintaining a gross margin of 11.5%. The company is focusing on high-value-added products in sectors such as nuclear power and new energy vehicles [3]. - The company announced a cash dividend plan, proposing a distribution of 3.0 yuan per 10 shares, amounting to a total of 159 million yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 39.7% [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company reported revenues of 3.69 billion yuan, a net profit of 400 million yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 330 million yuan, with respective year-on-year declines of 17.8%, 47.8%, and 46.0% [1]. - The second quarter results showed revenues of 1.91 billion yuan, a net profit of 210 million yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 150 million yuan, with year-on-year increases of 6.5%, 9.4%, and a decline of 20.3% [1]. Lithium Segment - The company sold 12,100 tons of lithium carbonate in the first half of 2025, a decrease of 10.3% year-on-year. The average price for battery-grade lithium carbonate was 75,100 yuan per ton in Q1 and 64,900 yuan per ton in Q2, reflecting year-on-year declines of 26.1% and 38.2% respectively [2]. - The lithium segment generated 863 million yuan in revenue, accounting for 23.35% of total revenue, with a net profit contribution of approximately 152 million yuan and a gross margin of 29.76% [2]. Special Steel Segment - The special steel segment's revenue reached 2.83 billion yuan, representing 76.65% of total revenue, with a net profit of approximately 170 million yuan and a stable gross margin of 11.5% [3]. - The company is enhancing its product structure and expanding into high-value sectors, which has led to increased sales and market share [3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 940 million yuan, 1.37 billion yuan, and 1.84 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 20, 14, and 10 times based on the closing price on August 22 [4].

Core Viewpoint - Jiangte Motor reported a significant increase in revenue but a substantial net loss, primarily due to the continuous decline in lithium salt product prices [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 975 million yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 35.85% from 718 million yuan [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 114 million yuan, which is a 78.24% increase in losses compared to the previous year's loss of 64.07 million yuan [2]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was a loss of 161 million yuan [2]. Business Structure and Challenges - Revenue from lithium mining and lithium salt manufacturing reached 460 million yuan, accounting for 47.21% of total revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 115.91% [2]. - The gross margin for this segment was -16.27%, indicating significant profitability challenges [2]. - The decline in profits is attributed to the drop in lithium salt product prices, which has led to reduced gross margins [2][3]. Industry Context - The price of lithium carbonate showed a downward trend in the first half of 2025, influenced by increased supply and weakened market demand [2]. - Factors such as the resumption of production at major lithium mines and trade tensions contributed to the oversupply situation, leading to inventory accumulation and price drops [2]. Recent Developments - Jiangte Motor announced the resumption of production at its wholly-owned subsidiary, Yichun Yinli New Energy, which may trigger further declines in lithium carbonate prices [4][5]. - Following the announcement, lithium carbonate futures prices fell sharply, with a daily drop of 8% [4][5]. - The market had previously anticipated a tightening of supply due to production halts, which led to a temporary surge in prices [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - Jiangte Motor (002176.SZ) is undergoing a potential change in control, which may impact its operations and strategic direction, amidst ongoing challenges in the lithium market [2][4]. Group 1: Control Change and Company Announcements - On July 21, Jiangte Motor announced a stock suspension due to plans for a change in control, with no formal agreements signed yet [2][4]. - The company’s wholly-owned subsidiary, Yichun Yinli New Energy, will initiate a comprehensive production halt for maintenance starting July 25, lasting approximately 26 days [4][6]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Market Context - As of the suspension date, Jiangte Motor's total market capitalization reached 13.207 billion yuan [3]. - The company has faced continuous losses in 2023 and 2024, with projected revenues of 2.103 billion yuan in 2024, a decline of 24.86%, and a net loss of 319 million yuan [8]. - The lithium market has seen a significant drop in carbonate prices, impacting Jiangte Motor's profitability, despite growth in its motor segment [8][9]. Group 3: Industry Position and Resource Control - Jiangte Motor is a leading player in lithium extraction from mica, holding over 100 million tons of lithium resources [7]. - The company has been actively acquiring mining rights and enhancing production capabilities in Yichun, known as "Asia's Lithium Capital" [7]. - In 2020, Jiangte Motor attempted to bring in Ganfeng Lithium as a major shareholder but failed to reach an agreement [6]. Group 4: Strategic Responses to Market Conditions - The maintenance halt is aimed at reducing production costs and ensuring the safe operation of production equipment, reflecting a common strategy among leading firms to optimize operations during market downturns [6][9]. - Recent trends indicate a potential rebound in lithium carbonate prices, which may provide some support to the market, although uncertainties remain for companies like Jiangte Motor [9].

Core Viewpoint - Jiangte Electric's control rights are undergoing changes, with the actual controllers planning a transfer of control amid ongoing losses in the lithium industry due to falling lithium carbonate prices [3][4]. Group 1: Control Rights and Company Background - Jiangte Electric's actual controllers, Zhu Jun and Lu Shunmin, hold 14.12% of the company's shares through the controlling shareholder Jiangxi Jiangte Electric Group [4]. - The company's total market value before the suspension was 13.2 billion yuan, with the market value corresponding to the actual controllers' holdings at 1.877 billion yuan [4]. - Zhu Jun has been the chairman and general manager since January 2002, while Lu Shunmin joined the board in the same year and became the chairman of the controlling shareholder in 2006 [4]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Industry Context - Jiangte Electric has faced continuous losses since 2023, attributed to the decline in lithium carbonate prices [3][8]. - The company reported a revenue of 6.572 billion yuan in 2022, with a profit of 2.326 billion yuan, marking significant growth compared to previous years [8]. - The company has been involved in the lithium industry since 2010, acquiring various lithium-related assets, but faced substantial losses from its investment in Jiulong Automobile, leading to a strategic shift towards smart motors and lithium industries [6][8]. Group 3: Lithium Resource and Production Challenges - Jiangte Electric holds significant lithium resources, with over 1 million tons of proven lithium resources and several mining rights [7][9]. - The company has a production capacity of 30,000 tons of lithium carbonate per year, but has struggled with profitability due to high production costs compared to current market prices [9][10]. - The company is currently undergoing a 26-day shutdown for maintenance of its lithium salt production line, aimed at improving production efficiency and reducing costs [3][10].