永兴材料（002756.SZ）2025 年半年报点评 一体化持续推进，云母龙头成本优势突出 2025 年 08 月 23 日 ➢ 事件：公司发布 2025 年半年报。公司 25H1 营收/归母净利/扣非归母净利 为 36.9/4.0/3.3 亿元，同比-17.8%/-47.8%/-46.0%。单季度看，Q2 营收/归母 经历/扣非归母净利分别为 19.1/2.1/1.5 亿元，同比+6.5%/+9.4%/-20.3%，环 比-13.1%/-30.3%/-51.1%。业绩符合预期。 ➢ 锂：产销稳定，成本继续优化。1）量：25H1 碳酸锂销量 1.21 万吨，同比 下降 10.3%；2）价：25H1 锂产品价格单边下行，Q1/Q2 电池级碳酸锂均价为 7.51/6.49 万元/吨同比-26.1%/-38.2%，环比-0.7%/-13.6%；3）利：25H1 锂 电新能源业务实现营收 8.63 亿元，占营收比重下降至 23.35%；贡献净利约 1.52 亿元，单吨净利约 1.27 万元，毛利率 29.76%。公司及时优化调整经营策略，采 用"现货销售为主+期现结合"的销售模式，降低价格波动对盈利的影响。4）本： ...

Group 1: Logistics and Warehousing Industry - In July 2025, the national express delivery volume reached 16.4 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 15.1%, with a total of 112.05 billion pieces from January to July, up 18.7% year-on-year [5][6] - The express delivery industry is experiencing a trend of concentration, with the CR8 increasing to 86.9, reflecting a 1.7 point year-on-year increase, indicating a significant rise in the market share of leading companies [6][7] - The revenue of the express delivery industry in July 2025 increased by 8.9% year-on-year, while the average revenue per piece decreased by 5.3%, showing a narrowing of the price decline and a shift towards healthier competition [7][8] Group 2: New Energy Power Generation Industry - The report discusses the supply-demand contradictions and cyclical nature of the new energy industry, particularly focusing on the photovoltaic sector [10] - It emphasizes the importance of reviewing the photovoltaic industry's supply-side capacity cycles and new technologies [10] Group 3: Building Materials Industry - The report outlines a research framework focusing on sub-industries such as cement, glass fiber, and consumer building materials [11] Group 4: Robotics Industry - The report highlights breakthroughs in humanoid robots, particularly in their ability to walk without visual aids, indicating significant advancements in technology [12][13] - It suggests that the humanoid robot industry is rapidly evolving, driven by technological deepening and practical applications, with a focus on key manufacturers and core component suppliers [13][15] Group 5: Dairy Products Industry - The report indicates that raw milk prices are expected to continue declining, with a potential supply-demand balance in the second half of 2025, benefiting from reduced costs and improved demand [17][18] - It notes that beef prices are entering an upward cycle, driven by supply reduction and decreased import pressures, which could enhance profitability for livestock companies [18][20] Group 6: Company Reports - Futu Holdings reported a strong net inflow of funds, with H1 2025 revenue and net profit reaching 10.006 billion and 4.72 billion HKD, respectively, marking increases of 74.89% and 109.76% year-on-year [22][23] - Baba Foods achieved H1 2025 revenue of 8.35 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.31%, with net profit rising by 18.08% [26][28] - Milky Way achieved a 13.17% year-on-year increase in net profit for H1 2025, driven by a focus on intelligent supply chain services [35][36]

Group 1: Military Industry - The military sector is experiencing an upward trend, driven by the intensifying geopolitical competition among major powers, with a long-term positive outlook for military investments [4][5][6] - The recent commemorative events for the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Anti-Japanese War have highlighted the importance of national defense, leading to increased military spending [5] - Key companies to focus on include major manufacturers and component suppliers such as AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, AVIC South Lake, and AVIC Xi'an Aircraft Industry [4] Group 2: Non-Metallic Building Materials - The implementation of new national standards for refrigerators is expected to accelerate the demand for VIP boards, with the company Reascent Technology poised for significant growth following its acquisition of Maikelong [8][9] - The company has integrated its supply chain from fiberglass cotton to VIP core materials and VIP boards, which is anticipated to enhance its competitive edge and profitability [9] Group 3: Dairy Industry - The price of raw milk continues to decline, and a supply-demand balance is expected in the second half of 2025, benefiting from reduced production and improved demand [11][19] - Beef prices are entering an upward cycle due to supply reduction and decreased import pressures, with a projected increase in profitability for livestock companies [12][20] - The cyclical resonance between meat and milk production is expected to enhance the profitability of leading livestock companies [11][21]

Core Viewpoint - The company expects to report a net profit of approximately -0.75 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, which represents a reduction in losses of about 10.70 billion RMB compared to the same period last year [1][2]. Performance Forecast - The performance forecast period is for the first half of 2025 [1]. - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately -0.75 billion RMB, a decrease in losses of about 10.70 billion RMB compared to the same period last year. The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is expected to be around -1.13 billion RMB, which is a reduction in losses of approximately 11.24 billion RMB compared to the previous year [1][2]. - The forecasted performance has not been audited by registered accountants [1]. Previous Year Performance - In the first half of 2024, the net profit attributable to shareholders was -11.45 billion RMB, and the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was -12.37 billion RMB [1]. Reasons for Performance Improvement - The improvement in performance is attributed to enhanced industry self-discipline and overall stable industry operations, leading to better corporate efficiency. The company has adhered to the "Four Have" operational principles, improved efficiency through reform and innovation, and focused on product management to optimize product structure [2]. - The company has implemented comprehensive cost reduction and quality enhancement measures, resulting in a reduction of approximately 91 RMB in cost per ton of steel compared to the previous year. Special steel products have achieved positive gross margins for four consecutive months, while long products have done so for five consecutive months [2]. - The net income from non-recurring gains and losses includes gains from the disposal of non-current assets and government subsidies, amounting to approximately 0.38 billion RMB [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong performance relative to the market [7]. Core Insights - The company's 2024 annual report shows that revenue reached 109.203 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.22%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.126 billion yuan, down 10.41% year-on-year. However, the fourth quarter net profit was 1.29 billion yuan, reflecting a 16.09% increase from the previous quarter [7]. - The company's special steel business remains stable, with a production volume of 20.16 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.53%. The average selling price of special steel products was 5,117 yuan per ton, down 5.02% year-on-year [7]. - High-end product sales continue to grow, with 738,000 tons of "small giant" project steel sold, achieving 103% of the annual target and a year-on-year increase of 10% [7]. - The company has maintained a high level of R&D investment, with R&D expenses increasing by 3.39% to 4.602 billion yuan [7]. - The report forecasts net profits of 5.463 billion yuan for 2025 and 5.993 billion yuan for 2026, with a new estimate of 6.286 billion yuan for 2027, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 12, 11, and 10 for 2025-2027 respectively [7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue (million yuan): 114,019 in 2023, 109,203 in 2024, projected 107,648 in 2025, 108,832 in 2026, and 109,051 in 2027 [2][9]. - Net profit (million yuan): 5,721 in 2023, 5,126 in 2024, projected 5,463 in 2025, 5,993 in 2026, and 6,286 in 2027 [2][9]. - Earnings per share (yuan/share): 1.13 in 2023, 1.02 in 2024, projected 1.08 in 2025, 1.19 in 2026, and 1.25 in 2027 [2][9]. - Gross margin (%): 13.1 in 2023, 12.8 in 2024, projected 13.4 in 2025, 13.5 in 2026, and 13.7 in 2027 [2][9].