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国投期货软商品日报-20250815
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 13:59
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market) [1] - Pulp: ★☆★ (Not clearly defined in the given content, but seems to imply a certain bullish tendency) [1] - Sugar: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆ (White stars, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability, for observation only) [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ (White stars, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability, for observation only) [1] - Natural Rubber: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market) [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, pulp, sugar, apple, natural rubber, 20 - rubber, butadiene rubber, timber, and logs. It provides investment suggestions based on supply - demand, inventory, and price trends of each commodity [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton slightly declined, and the mainstream sales basis of cotton spot was stable with average spot trading. Pure - cotton yarn trading improved this week with a slightly stronger price. As of the end of July, the commercial inventory was 218.98 million tons, a decrease of 64 million tons month - on - month and 58.8 million tons year - on - year. The inventory digestion in July was good, and it is expected to improve further in August. The market is cautiously optimistic about future Sino - US trade negotiations. There is a strong expectation of increased production in Xinjiang in the new season. The USDA August report was bullish, with US cotton production significantly reduced by 30.2 million tons to 287.7 million tons, and the global ending inventory also decreased. The recommended operation is to buy on dips [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. The production data of the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of July was neutral to bearish. Due to less rainfall in July, the production progress accelerated, with the cane crushing volume and sugar production increasing year - on - year. However, due to more rainfall in the early stage, the overall production progress was still slow, and some international institutions lowered the production forecast for this year. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. In terms of production and sales, the sales rhythm this year was fast, the inventory decreased year - on - year, and the spot pressure was relatively light. In June, the sugar import volume increased year - on - year, but the cumulative import volume this year was still low. The market's trading focus has shifted to imports and the production forecast for the next season. The import volume of sugar and syrup decreased significantly this year, reducing the sales pressure on domestic sugar. However, the production forecast for the 25/26 season is uncertain. Attention should be paid to subsequent weather conditions and cane growth [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated upward. Currently, the market demand for apples is poor, the cold - storage shipment speed is slow, and the spot price is weak. On the other hand, the remaining cold - storage inventory is not large, and storage merchants are actively shipping. The price of early - maturing apples was high after their listing, but the overall quality was average. As of August 14, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 46.13 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 49.4%. Last week, the national cold - storage apple destocking volume was 5.07 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.31%. The market's trading focus has shifted to the production forecast for the new season. The western producing areas were affected by cold snaps and strong winds during the flowering period this year, but the impact of low temperatures on production was small, mainly increasing the risk of fruit rust. On the other hand, the flower volume in the producing areas was sufficient this year, and there are still differences in the production forecast. The recommended operation is to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, the futures prices of RU, NR, and BR all increased. The domestic spot price of natural rubber increased, the synthetic rubber spot price was stable, the FOB price of butadiene at foreign ports was stable, and the raw material market price in Thailand was stable with a slight decline. In terms of supply, the global natural rubber supply is gradually entering the high - yield period, and there is more rainfall in most Southeast Asian producing areas. This week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants continued to decline, with Qixiang Tengda and Maoming Petrochemical under maintenance, Xinjiang Landi planning for maintenance, Yihua Nuclear Plastics restarted, and Dushanzi Petrochemical operating at a low load. The operating rate of upstream butadiene plants continued to rise significantly. Jilun's new 200,000 - ton butadiene plant was successfully put into production. In terms of demand, the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires rebounded this week, while the operating rate of semi - steel tires continued to decline, and the finished - product inventory of tire enterprises increased. In terms of inventory, this week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao reported by Longzhong continued to decline to 62 million tons, and both the bonded and general trade inventories in Qingdao continued to decline. The social inventory of Chinese cis - butadiene rubber reported by Fuchuang continued to decline to 1.15 million tons. As imported goods arrived at ports one after another, the inventory of Chinese butadiene at ports continued to rise significantly to 2.04 million tons. Overall, the demand performance is average, the supply of natural rubber increases, the synthetic rubber supply decreases, the rubber inventory declines, the market sentiment improves, and there is an expectation of interest - rate cuts in the US. The strategy is to wait and see for RU, and be bullish for NR and BR [5] Pulp - Today, the pulp futures declined with a large intraday decline. The spot price of Shandong Yinxing was stable at 5850 yuan/ton, the price of Russian needles in the Yangtze River Delta was 5300 yuan/ton, and the price of broad - leaf pulp Jinyu was stable at 4200 yuan/ton. As of August 14, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 209.9 million tons, an increase of 5.1 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.5%. Currently, the domestic port inventory is relatively high year - on - year. The pulp supply is relatively loose, and the demand is still weak. After entering August, the downstream may gradually transition to the peak season, which may boost the demand. The recommended operation is to buy on dips [6] Logs - The futures price fluctuated. The mainstream spot price was stable. In terms of supply, the arrival volume increased last week. However, the foreign offer has rebounded for two consecutive months, while the increase in the domestic spot price was small, increasing the pressure on traders. It is expected that imports will not increase significantly in the short term, and the domestic supply may remain at a low level. In terms of demand, after entering the off - season, the daily average shipment volume at ports fluctuated around 60,000 cubic meters. The overall shipment situation was good. As of August 8, the total log inventory at national ports was 3.08 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 2.84%. The total log inventory was low, and the inventory pressure was relatively small. Overall, the supply - demand situation has improved, but the peak - season demand has not started yet. The recommended operation is to wait and see [7]
【期货热点追踪】美国农产品期货齐跌,USDA月度报告即将发布,能否为谷物市场指明方向?美国中西部天气如何影响产量预期?
news flash· 2025-07-10 01:43
Core Insights - The article discusses the decline in U.S. agricultural futures ahead of the USDA's monthly report, raising questions about its potential impact on grain market direction [1] - It highlights the influence of weather conditions in the U.S. Midwest on yield expectations, which could further affect market dynamics [1] Group 1 - U.S. agricultural futures are experiencing a widespread decline [1] - The upcoming USDA monthly report is anticipated to provide guidance for the grain market [1] - Weather conditions in the Midwest are a critical factor influencing yield expectations [1]
新能源及有色金属日报:多晶硅产量或增加,近月合约回落较多-20250619
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-19 05:07
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The price of industrial silicon oscillated strongly, mainly affected by the expected increase in the downstream polysilicon start - up and the overall macro - sentiment, with little change in the fundamentals. The polysilicon futures price dropped significantly on June 18, 2025, mainly due to the expected increase in production and weak consumption [1][2][3][6] Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On June 18, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price oscillated strongly. The main contract 2509 opened at 7390 yuan/ton and closed at 7425 yuan/ton, a change of 80 yuan/ton (1.09%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2509 was 317763 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 55620 lots, a change of - 448 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8000 - 8300 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 8400 - 9000 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 7500 - 7700 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 7500 - 7700 yuan/ton. Spot purchases were mainly for rigid demand [1] - The organic silicon DMC was quoted at 10400 - 10900 yuan/ton. The start - up of the organic silicon industry increased, but consumption was average, and prices were under pressure [1] Polysilicon - On June 18, 2025, the main contract 2507 of polysilicon futures dropped significantly, opening at 33960 yuan/ton and closing at 33370 yuan/ton, a - 2.00% change from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 30435 lots (43443 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 94724 lots [3] - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of polysilicon re - feedstock was 31.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg, dense material was 29.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg, cauliflower material was 28.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, granular silicon was 30.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg, N - type material was 34.00 - 37.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 32.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg [3] - Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory increased slightly, while silicon wafer inventory decreased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 27.50 (a 2.23% change), silicon wafer inventory was 19.34GW (a - 3.40% change). The weekly polysilicon production was 23800.00 tons (an 8.00% change), and silicon wafer production was 13.10GW (a 0.40% change) [3] Silicon Wafer - The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 0.91 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.27 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.06 yuan/piece [3] Battery Cell - The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells was about 0.28 yuan/W, Topcon M10 battery cells was about 0.24 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.26 yuan/W, Topcon 210RN battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37 yuan/W [5] Component - The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.68 - 0.70 yuan/W (a - 0.01 yuan/W change), and N - type 210mm was 0.68 - 0.70 yuan/W (a - 0.01 yuan/W change) [5] Strategy Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon oscillated strongly. The strategy was mainly range - bound operation, and upstream enterprises should sell hedging at high prices [2] Polysilicon - The futures price dropped significantly, mainly affected by the expected increase in production and weak consumption. The strategy was range - bound operation, and sell hedging at high prices. There were no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [6] Factors to Watch - The resumption and new capacity production in the Northwest and Southwest regions [4] - Changes in the start - up of polysilicon enterprises [4] - Policy disturbances [4] - Macro and capital sentiment [4] - The start - up of organic silicon enterprises [4]
有色金属:海外季报:Mt Marion 2025Q1 锂精矿产量同比减少 23%至 14 万吨,Mt Wodgina 2025Q1 锂精矿产量同比增加 29%至 12.6 万吨
HUAXI Securities· 2025-04-30 09:32
Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's performance relative to the benchmark index [6]. Core Insights - The overall lithium concentrate production for Q1 2025 decreased by 2% quarter-on-quarter to 133,000 tons, while shipments fell by 11% to 127,000 tons [1]. - The average realized price for lithium concentrate was $844 per ton, reflecting a 2% increase from the previous quarter [1]. - Mt Marion's lithium concentrate production for Q1 2025 was 140,000 tons, a 21% increase quarter-on-quarter but a 23% decrease year-on-year, with production expectations for FY2025 adjusted to 185,000-200,000 tons [2][3]. - Wodgina's lithium concentrate production for Q1 2025 was 126,000 tons, showing a 17% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 29% year-on-year increase, attributed to improved recovery rates and fresh ore supply [4]. Summary by Sections Lithium Mining - Mt Marion's Q1 2025 shipment volume was 138,000 tons, a 25% increase quarter-on-quarter but a 9% decrease year-on-year, with an average grade of 4.4% [2]. - The average sales price for Mt Marion lithium concentrate was $845 per ton, a 4% increase from the previous quarter [3]. - Wodgina's Q1 2025 shipment volume was 118,000 tons, a 3% decrease quarter-on-quarter and a 13% decrease year-on-year, with an average grade of 5.3% [7][8]. Iron Ore - Onslow Iron's Q1 2025 production was 3.43 million tons, a 23% decrease quarter-on-quarter, with an average realized price of $89 per ton [9][14]. - The production guidance for Onslow Iron has been slightly adjusted down to 8.5-8.7 million tons for FY2025 [9]. - The offshore cost for Onslow Iron was $58 per wet ton, with a guidance range of $60-70 per wet ton maintained [9][15]. Mining Services - The total mining volume for Q1 2025 was 62 million tons, a decrease of 6 million tons quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to reduced output from Yilgarn Hub and Bald Hill [17]. - The expected mining volume for FY2025 is at the lower end of the guidance range (280-300 million tons), with growth anticipated in Q2 2025 [17].