如果说，AGI的实现与否放在两年前还有"路线之争"。而今，超级人工智能的出现，似乎已是板上钉 钉。 最近一段时间，AI届大佬接连发出全新"警告"：人类智力的霸权时代，已进入倒计时。 "ChatGPT之父"萨姆·奥特曼在一次深度专访中，给出了一个全新时间表预测：到2030年，人工智能将在 所有维度上超越人类。 他引用数据说，社会上一半的工作岗位每75年就会更替一次，而AI将把这个周期急剧缩短。 Stability AI前CEO、缔造者Emad Mostaque则将这个时间点提前了两年多，并进一步"预想"：未来1000 天内，人工智能不仅将取代人类工作岗位，更将彻底重塑人类的经济结构。 他认为，在智能崛起（Intelligence Inversion）的这个当下阶段，AI将主导GDP增长，人类智能将被机器 智能替代，大量认知劳动将被AI智能体取代——毕竟，Agent廉价且高效。 这也就意味着，人类劳动价值不只是归零，有可能转为负值。因为从投入产出比来看，AI成本更低、 效率更高，比人类劳动力更有性价比。 大佬们并非夸夸其谈，这些"预警"已经切实反映在当下的就业市场上了。 初级岗位悄悄消失 AI对招聘市场是否真实地 ...

Group 1 - SoftBank Group is set to lay off nearly 20% of its Vision Fund team globally, marking a significant downsizing in the venture capital industry [1][3] - The Vision Fund currently employs over 300 people, meaning that more than 60 employees will be affected by this decision [3] - The layoffs are part of a strategic restructuring aimed at focusing on investments in artificial intelligence (AI) and breakthrough technologies [3][4] Group 2 - Despite reporting its best performance in four years a month prior, SoftBank's CEO Masayoshi Son announced the layoffs, reflecting a shift in focus towards AI [3][7] - Son has emphasized the importance of AI, stating that the future will redefine various aspects of life and work, with a goal for SoftBank to become the leading provider of Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI) [3][4] - The Vision Fund has made significant investments in AI, including a $9.7 billion investment in OpenAI, with an additional $30 billion expected to be raised by December [4][5] Group 3 - The Vision Fund has shown signs of recovery, reporting a substantial increase in investment returns, with a profit of 726.84 billion yen in Q1 of FY2025-2026, compared to only 1.91 billion yen in the same period last year [7] - The investment strategy has shifted from a broad approach to a more focused one, concentrating on high-potential areas such as AI [8][9] - The venture capital landscape is evolving, with a growing emphasis on technology-driven investments and a move away from the previous scattergun investment strategy [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - Chinese AI companies are challenging the dominance of American AI models globally, with increasing adoption of Chinese AI models like DeepSeek across various international sectors, despite U.S. restrictions [1][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - International users, including major banks like HSBC and Standard Chartered, are testing Chinese AI models, indicating a shift in preference from American products to Chinese alternatives [1]. - The download figures for OpenAI's ChatGPT stand at 910 million, while DeepSeek has reached 125 million, showcasing a significant gap but also a growing presence of Chinese models [2]. - Chinese AI models are closing the performance gap with American counterparts, with DeepSeek scoring 1,424, closely following Google's Gemini and OpenAI's ChatGPT [3]. Group 2: Strategic Approaches - Chinese AI companies are focusing on practical applications and open-source models, which have spurred global interest and usage, contrasting with the closed-source, high-cost models of American firms [4]. - The open-source strategy has led to significant adoption of Chinese models, with reports indicating that DeepSeek is chosen by one in five users on a global AI platform due to its cost-effectiveness [4]. Group 3: Geopolitical Implications - U.S. restrictions on Chinese AI development have backfired, leading to losses for Western chip manufacturers and failing to halt the progress of Chinese AI [5]. - The increasing adoption of Chinese AI models globally poses a risk to the market share and revenue of American companies like Google and Meta [5]. - The divide between U.S. and Chinese AI systems may hinder global cooperation on AI safety, potentially weakening the ability to address future AI risks [6].

Group 1 - The core objective of SoftBank is to become the largest provider of "artificial superintelligence" platforms globally within the next decade, as stated by CEO Masayoshi Son [1] - SoftBank's aggressive investment strategy is being revived, with significant investments in AI, including a $6.5 billion acquisition of Ampere and a commitment of up to $40 billion to OpenAI [1] - The total investment commitment to OpenAI has reached $32 billion since the initial investment in fall 2024, with Son expressing regret for not entering the market earlier [1] Group 2 - SoftBank previously held about 5% of Nvidia shares but sold them all in 2019, prior to the AI boom triggered by ChatGPT in late 2022 [2] - The recent investment surge follows years of strategic contraction, with SoftBank's Vision Fund investments suffering significant losses since 2022 [2] - The IPO of Arm in September 2023 raised approximately $5 billion, helping to stabilize SoftBank's financial situation and enabling new investments [2]

Core Viewpoint - SoftBank's CEO Masayoshi Son expressed the ambition to become the world's leading provider of artificial superintelligence platforms within the next decade [1] Group 1 - The company aims to leverage advancements in artificial intelligence to achieve its goal [1] - The vision includes significant investments in AI technology and infrastructure to support this ambition [1] - The focus on artificial superintelligence indicates a strategic shift towards more advanced AI capabilities [1]

Core Viewpoint - The relationship between OpenAI and Microsoft is deteriorating over the definition of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) and related contract terms, leading to significant disputes that could impact OpenAI's upcoming IPO [1][4]. Group 1: Contract Disputes - OpenAI and Microsoft signed a $10 billion cooperation agreement in 2023, which has triggered major disagreements over the AGI clause [1]. - Microsoft is demanding the removal of a key clause that allows OpenAI to terminate technology access upon achieving AGI, but negotiations remain stalled as of May 2025 [1][2]. - The original 2019 agreement allows OpenAI to cut off Microsoft's access to technology if AGI is reached, a concept that some Microsoft executives view as unrealistic [1][2]. Group 2: AGI Development and Perspectives - OpenAI's CEO Altman claims that AGI is "within reach" and has defined it as a system capable of solving complex human-level problems across multiple domains [2]. - In contrast, Microsoft CEO Nadella argues that a 10% annual growth in the global economy is a more realistic benchmark, suggesting that AGI will not be achieved before the contract expires in 2030 [2]. Group 3: Financial Implications and Negotiation Dynamics - OpenAI is projected to burn through $46 billion in R&D over the next four years, making IPO financing a critical necessity [4]. - If the restructuring fails, the unique equity structure of OpenAI could jeopardize its IPO prospects [4]. - Microsoft has rejected several concessions from OpenAI, including giving up a 20% revenue share and allowing customers to access OpenAI models through competing cloud providers [3]. Group 4: Alliance Fractures - The partnership has seen a shift in power dynamics since the unexpected success of ChatGPT in late 2022, leading to visible fractures in their collaboration [7]. - OpenAI has turned to Google Cloud for computing resources due to insufficient support from Microsoft and has also partnered with Oracle [7]. - Microsoft is accelerating the development of its own AI models and recruiting teams to create alternative solutions [7].