Core Viewpoint - The A-share market may experience a 30% increase in the index by 2025, but individual accounts may remain flat due to concentrated investments in specific hot stocks each month rather than broad market gains [1]. Monthly Performance Summary - January: The robot sector surged, turning an initial investment of 10,000 into 18,400 due to the popularity of humanoid robots [3]. - February: The DeepSeek model led to a valuation increase in computing power, with returns reaching 46,200 from 10,000, marking a 150.97% increase [6]. - March: Chemical products saw price increases, with an investment growing to 158,200, reflecting a 135.41% rise [6]. - April: The new retail concept gained traction amid tariff disputes, with a notable stock rising by 117.1% [6]. - May: The military and pharmaceutical sectors alternated in popularity, with AI logistics becoming a new focus, resulting in a 157.28% increase [6]. - June: Military equipment stocks surged due to geopolitical tensions, with returns reaching 159.97% [6]. - July: The rumor of Zhiyuan's acquisition led to a dramatic rise in the humanoid robot sector, with a staggering 1,083.42% increase [6]. - August: AI chip companies reported improved earnings, and battery prices stabilized, leading to a 110.36% increase [6]. - September: The release of energy storage policies accelerated market growth, with returns of 153.52% [6]. - October: Regional policies boosted stocks, with a 99.44% increase [6]. - November: The focus shifted to defensive stocks amid market adjustments, with a 143.31% increase [6]. - December: The commercial aerospace sector concluded the year strongly, with a 104.83% increase [6]. Overall Investment Growth - An initial investment of 10,000 grew to 993 million over the year through strategic monthly trading [4].

【文/观察者网 王一】"大科技、大外交：印度邀请中国参加人工智能（AI）影响力峰会"新闻网站"India Blooms"12月30日以此为题报道称，印度已正式邀请中国参加明年2月在新德里举行的AI峰会。 "印度—AI影响力峰会"将于明年2月15日至20日在新德里举行，这也是该论坛首次在全球南方国家举 行，峰会旨在提出具有可操作性的政策建议，服务长期的AI治理目标，而非制定短期具有约束力的监 管规则。 克里希南在发布会上介绍，预计将有数十个国家的政府首脑出席本届峰会，印度总理莫迪将为峰会揭 幕，并可能为莅临的国家元首和全球顶尖科技企业高管举行欢迎晚宴。 克里希南称，微软公司创始人比尔·盖茨已确认出席，谷歌旗下AI研究公司DeepMind首席执行官德米斯· 哈萨比斯、Anthropic公司首席执行官达里奥·阿莫代伊、Adobe首席执行官尚塔努·纳拉延、高通公司总 裁兼首席执行官克里斯蒂亚诺·阿蒙等人也已确认参会。 印度电子与信息技术部秘书克里希南 视频截图 印度《铸币报》指出，这是印度首次以合作伙伴国家的身份，正式邀请中国参加其年度AI活动。《印 度快报》称，此举被视为印中双边关系持续回暖的又一信号。 当地时间2 ...

Group 1: Meta's Acquisition - Meta announced the acquisition of Chinese AI startup Manus for over $2 billion, a significant increase from its previous valuation of $500 million during a funding round in April [1][16] - This acquisition marks a substantial return on investment for its backers, including Benchmark Capital, ZhenFund, and Redpoint Ventures, and continues Meta's trend of acquisitions aimed at restructuring its AI business [1][16] - The effectiveness of this acquisition in revitalizing Meta's AI business remains uncertain [1][16] Group 2: AI Industry Trends - The AI industry continues to attract venture capital and talent, but signs of market fatigue are emerging, including delays in data center construction [2][17] - OpenAI's previous dominance in the AI chatbot market has diminished, with leading companies like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google now offering comparable models [2][17] - Major clients of AI models, such as Salesforce and Microsoft, are facing sales challenges for their AI-enabled products, raising concerns about an AI bubble [2][17] Group 3: Key Developments in AI - The launch of the DeepSeek model by a Chinese hedge fund in January 2025 created significant industry buzz, claiming to rival top models from OpenAI and others, although its actual training costs were later revealed to be much higher than initially stated [4][19] - Reinforcement learning technology has gained popularity, with major AI labs adopting it to enhance model performance across various applications [6][20] - Over 25 AI application startups have achieved annual revenues of at least $100 million, indicating a shift towards profitability in the sector [7][23] Group 4: Meta's Challenges - 2025 is a challenging year for Meta, with its new Llama 4 model receiving criticism and a significant investment of $14.3 billion in Scale AI yielding limited results [7][23] - Meta's new AI team has struggled to produce successful applications, leading to organizational changes and talent loss [7][23] Group 5: Google's Resurgence - Google has made a strong comeback in the AI space in 2025, releasing several well-received models, including Gemini 3.0, which achieved significant breakthroughs in code generation [8][24] - Despite still trailing behind ChatGPT in user numbers, Google's rapid progress is noteworthy [8][24] Group 6: Financing Trends - The trend of circular financing in the AI industry continues, with companies relying on funding from tech giants like Microsoft and Nvidia to purchase necessary computing resources [9][25] - This financing model has proven effective for AI labs in managing their substantial operational costs [9][25] Group 7: Regulatory Environment - The Trump administration has introduced favorable policies for the AI industry, including prohibiting state-level regulations and expediting data center project approvals [10][26] - These measures have been influenced by significant investments from tech companies to gain favor with the administration [10][26] Group 8: Robotics and AI - Despite substantial investments in robotics startups, the anticipated advancements in practical robots powered by AI have largely failed to materialize [11][27] - The high cost and operational limitations of new robotic products have raised questions about their viability in the market [11][27] Group 9: Research Directions - There is growing skepticism among AI researchers regarding the feasibility of achieving artificial general intelligence (AGI) with current technologies [12][28] - The concept of "continuous learning" is emerging as a new research direction, which could significantly impact the industry if successfully developed [12][28] Group 10: Market Movements - Leading AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic are signaling intentions to go public in the coming years, driven by the capital-intensive nature of their businesses [13][29] - Successful IPOs could provide individual investors with opportunities to benefit from the AI sector's growth, but potential market corrections pose risks [13][29] Group 11: Industry Dynamics - André Karpathy's recent shift in perspective on AI programming tools highlights the evolving landscape of AI applications in software engineering [14][30] - His endorsement of AI tools suggests a significant transformation in the role of programmers, emphasizing the integration of AI technologies [14][30]

大家好欢迎收看【古今财鉴】 美国这几年对中国AI的围堵，动作可不小。 又是高端芯片禁运，又是闭源模型技术壁垒，摆明了想卡住咱们的脖子。 财经摆渡人 精研出品 破浪前行，共探财富新局 当时不少人觉得，中国AI发展怕是要慢下来了。 谁能想到，现在风向变了超过一半的美国初创企业，居然把中国开源AI模型当成了开发首选。 这剧情反转得，连我这个常年追科技圈的都觉得意外。 就拿硅谷那些明星公司来说，不是偷偷用，是明着"站队"。 Perplexity这种AI创业独角兽，底层技术直接搭在中国模型上；Airbnb更直接，CEO公开说他们的AI客 服系统"重度依赖"阿里的Qwen模型。 我翻了翻硅谷工程师的聊天记录，DeepSeek、GLM、Kimi这些名字，现在跟咖啡一样成了办公室标 配。 不光是商业公司，连学术界和芯片巨头都"真香"了。 斯坦福大学搞推理模型研究，直接拿Qwen当基座改；英伟达训练自家AI时，居然用Qwen生成高质 量"合成数据"。 这场景挺讽刺的美国想卡中国的算力脖子，结果中国模型反倒成了美国AI的"养料供给者"。 半数美企"用脚投票"，中国模型成硅谷新宠 为什么美国公司放着自家的闭源模型不用，非要千里迢迢 ...

元宝发布的《元宝×DeepSeek年度报告》显示，自今年2月接入DeepSeek以来，元宝持续第一时间更新DeepSeek最新模型，用户规模稳步增长，并在12月14 日创下新的使用峰值，较年初增长100多倍。目前，元宝已稳居国内原生 AI 应用前三。 一场"双向奔赴"正在DeepSeek与元宝之间发生。 12月24日，DeepSeek官方在小红书点赞并回应元宝发布的年度报告，双方公开互动。 在全球已有超过百款产品接入DeepSeek模型的背景下，此类互动实属少见，也因此引发行业关注。 报告还显示，元宝里的DeepSeek像极了一个全天候的个人搭子：白天，电脑版陪着上班；到了晚上，元宝APP的使用明显增多，陪着用户聊天和放松。在微 信里，宝则随时待命、有问必答。这也反映出，AI助手从偶尔调用到日常使用的变化。 在能力层面，元宝坚持"DeepSeek+"策略，在第一时间接入DeepSeek与混元最新模型的同时，通过自研的腾讯混元大模型补齐多模态能力。 如今在元宝，DeepSeek不只是"满血版"，更是"增强版"：除了拥有官方满血能力，还具备更多"技能"：生图、P图、打电话、理解38种文件……依托腾讯生 态，还接入 ...

▲ 戳蓝 色字关注我们！ "第一并不总是最好的，最好的往往不急于争第一。"—— 乔治·卢卡斯（George Lucas） 到底谁才是国内AI大模型的第一名？ 智谱的招股书里说科大讯飞是第一，占比9点多； IDC的报告说字节的豆包拿了半壁江山，49%的市场份额； 然后硅谷顶级风投A16Z和OpenRouter又发了份报告说DeepSeek才是全球第一。 三份文件，都是这个月刚发布的，但却有三个第一名。这到底谁在说谎？ 今天这期内容，我就把这三份报告给你掰开了揉碎了分析分析。 讲完你就明白了——而且看懂这件事，对咱们的职业选择、投资判断，甚至用哪个AI工具，都有直接的指导意义。 不同的"第一"，不同的衡量标准 1. 智谱招股书：看营收，科大讯飞是"赚钱第一" 先说智谱的招股书。 2. IDC报告：看调用量，字节豆包占"半壁江山第一" 他们前两天刚递交港交所，想冲刺"全球大模型第一股"。我还专门做了一期视频分析招股书。 招股书里专门放了张表，2024年中国大模型厂商收入排名： 虽然招股书用了代号，但你稍微一推就知道，第一名基本就是科大讯飞——深圳的，做语音起家的，2024年大模型相关收入五个多亿人民币， 中标项目也 ...

Core Insights - The traditional narrative of the global AI race is shifting, with China's open-source AI models gaining significant traction and expected to support nearly 30% of global AI applications by the end of 2025 [2] - Chinese AI models are being adopted rapidly across emerging markets, driven by their cost-effectiveness and innovative architecture, which allows for substantial savings compared to traditional proprietary systems [2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - By the end of 2025, open-source AI startups based on Chinese models constitute 80% of the portfolios of leading global venture capital firms [1] - Chinese developers have surpassed their American counterparts in model downloads on major platforms like Hugging Face, indicating a shift in the global AI development landscape [2] Group 2: Cost Efficiency and Innovation - Chinese models can reduce costs by up to 95% compared to traditional proprietary systems, with performance achieved at approximately $5.6 million versus over $100 million for Western models [2] - The implementation of "mixed expert models" in Chinese labs has led to breakthroughs that allow for more output with fewer resources, contrasting with the "brute force" approach of other teams [2] Group 3: Global Impact and Digital Sovereignty - The open-source revolution from China addresses the global demand for digital sovereignty, allowing countries to run models on local servers and reducing geopolitical risks associated with reliance on closed systems [3] - The transparency of open-source code fosters trust and sustainability, enabling local researchers to ensure compliance with domestic security standards [3] Group 4: Local Applications and Language Inclusivity - Local applications of Chinese AI technology, such as Uganda's "Sunflower" model and Malaysia's NurAI, demonstrate the potential for bridging digital divides and enhancing language inclusivity [4] - These initiatives signify the emergence of a new era of "sovereign AI," where countries leverage high-quality global models to create systems that reflect their unique values [4] Group 5: Future Outlook - The future of AI is expected to be characterized by shared resources and open access, with China's innovations serving as a foundational element for a more inclusive global AI landscape [4]

Group 1 - The core focus of the 2026 Annual Conference is on the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) from technological breakthroughs to societal reconstruction, exploring how embodied intelligence drives industrial transformation and seeks paths for AI to align with low-carbon goals during the critical period of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2][3] - The conference features prominent guests including Terrence Sejnowski, a member of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, and Xue Lan, Director of the National New Generation Artificial Intelligence Governance Professional Committee [3] Group 2 - Insights from the industry highlight how breakthroughs in AI models in 2026 will reshape investment logic in computing power, applications, and aerospace computing, with models like DeepSeek driving advancements in China [5][6] - The long-term improvement in the A-share market environment is expected to stem from a decline in interest rates and increased liquidity, with the CSI A500 index providing balanced industry allocation and core asset selection [8] Group 3 - The 2026 Annual Strategy Conference will focus on the restructuring and opportunities in cyclical industries under the "anti-involution" policy, discussing how construction materials can accelerate clearing at the bottom, and how new chemical materials can benefit from supply-demand improvements [10] - The investment outlook for 2026 emphasizes resilience and rebalancing, with global investment patterns influenced by geopolitical uncertainties and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, alongside China's fiscal policies potentially boosting economic growth [13][14]

Core Insights - The recent ranking of open-source AI models highlights the dominance of Chinese models, with DeepSeek, Qwen, Kimi, Zhipu, and MiniMax leading the global landscape, while OpenAI and Meta's models lag behind [3][5][25]. Group 1: Performance and Market Position - Chinese open-source models are rapidly closing the performance gap with closed-source giants, excelling in dimensions such as performance, pricing, ecosystem, and usability [5][25]. - Kimi's K2 Thinking model, featuring a trillion parameters, has outperformed OpenAI's GPT-5 and Anthropic's Claude 4.5 in various benchmarks [11][14]. - MiniMax M2 has also shown strong performance, ranking fifth in comprehensive lists, surpassing competitors like Gemini 2.5 Pro and Claude Opus 4.1 [14][79]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - The introduction of interleaved thinking in models like MiniMax M2 and Kimi K2 Thinking allows for more efficient task execution by alternating between action and reflection [34][36]. - MiniMax M2 employs a full attention mechanism, which, despite increasing training and inference demands, has proven to deliver better performance compared to sparse attention models [75][78]. Group 3: Cost and Accessibility - MiniMax's API offers competitive pricing at $0.3/$1.2 per million input/output tokens, although its verbose nature leads to high token usage, which can offset cost advantages [79]. - The open-source movement in China is gaining momentum, with MiniMax's release reinforcing the leadership established by DeepSeek and other Chinese AI labs in the open-source domain [80][84]. Group 4: Community and Developer Adoption - There is a growing recognition among developers for the practicality and affordability of Chinese open-source models, with many citing them as preferable alternatives to established closed-source options like OpenAI [25][84]. - The rapid updates and releases from various Chinese companies indicate a robust and collaborative open-source ecosystem that is continuously evolving [11][14].

Core Viewpoint - The new Federal Reserve Chair's hawkish stance on interest rate cuts has led to a shift in market expectations, indicating a lower likelihood of extreme hawkishness in future monetary policy, which is expected to support a strong spring rally in Hong Kong stocks due to liquidity easing and potential excess capital inflow [1][18]. Group 1: Spring Rally in Hong Kong Stocks - The spring rally in Hong Kong stocks (from Christmas to before the Spring Festival) is expected to occur, with historical data showing a high probability of gains for the Hang Seng Technology Index and the Hang Seng Index during this period, at 72.7% and 80.0% respectively, with median gains of 6.3% and 4.7% [2][17]. - The current market conditions suggest that the spring rally will not be hindered by liquidity concerns, as the peak of stock unlocks has passed, and the market is not overly worried about the impact of Japanese interest rate changes [18]. Group 2: Historical Performance and Trends - Over the past 15 years, the spring rally has consistently shown strong performance, with the Hang Seng Technology Index achieving an average gain of 4.7% and the Hang Seng Index 3.8% during this period [2][17]. - The occurrence of a spring rally is often linked to factors such as liquidity easing and positive macroeconomic data, as seen in strong years like 2021 and 2023 [16][18]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Expectations - The market's expectation of a dovish Federal Reserve Chair, following a significant drop in the probability of the hawkish candidate, suggests that the upcoming monetary policy will likely support market stability and growth [1][18]. - Anticipation for developments in DeepSeek's model and advancements in domestic internet companies' consumer applications is expected to positively influence the fundamentals of the Hang Seng Technology Index in the near future [18].