美国达乐还继续推进以旧换新计划并提高核心客户消费频率。美银认为，随着中高收入群体继续进行以 旧换新交易，达乐的前景将得到支持，同时核心客户在达乐的消费支出也会增加(美银认为，在更严峻 的消费者环境背景下，这种趋势可能会加速，消费者对低价产品/包装规格的需求可能会增加)。店铺改 造应会产生"飞轮效应"，不仅能推动销售额增长，还能减少损耗、损坏、维护以及整个店铺系统的中 断。 回归基础举措有效，美银相信回归基础举措(库存削减、商品分类优化、配送中心重置以及陈列包优化) 正在发挥作用。达乐拥有多种支持毛利率增长的催化剂(包括像达乐媒体网络这样的战略举措以及减少 损耗和损坏)，以及营收增长/份额提升(改造、非消耗品增长的回归、持续的数字/配送扩展——包括到 年底在 16000 家店铺推出 1 对 1 当日配送服务，而目前只有 6000 家)。 该公司第二财季经调整后的每股利润则为1.86美元，高于美银预期的1.44美元以及华尔街共识预期1.58 美元。同店销售额增长 2.8%(高于华尔街预期的 2.5%)，客流量增长 1.5%(第一季度为下降0.3%)，客均 销售额增长 1.2%，且各品类均实现增长(包括连续两个季度 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the macroeconomic environment in China, highlighting the impact of external factors such as U.S.-China trade relations and domestic economic policies on various economic indicators. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Economic Growth Forecast**: The expected GDP growth for May 2025 is projected at 5.8%, with industrial added value growth at 6.0%, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous period [6][21]. 2. **Investment Trends**: Fixed asset investment is anticipated to grow by 3.8% year-on-year for the first five months of 2025, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous forecast, influenced by external uncertainties and cautious corporate behavior [10][27]. 3. **Consumer Spending**: Social retail sales are expected to increase by 4.9% year-on-year in May 2025, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from earlier estimates, driven by policy support but constrained by external economic pressures [8][24]. 4. **Export and Import Dynamics**: - Exports are projected to grow by 9.3% year-on-year in May 2025, an increase of 1.2 percentage points, aided by the easing of high tariffs from the U.S. [10][31]. - Imports are expected to rise by 1.3% year-on-year, reflecting a 1.5 percentage point increase, influenced by low base effects and the easing of tariffs [10][33]. 5. **Inflation Metrics**: - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is forecasted to decline by 0.1% year-on-year, remaining stable due to ample supply and external economic pressures [11][35]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to drop by 3.3%, with the decline accelerating by 0.6 percentage points, impacted by global economic conditions and domestic structural adjustments [11][37]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Monetary Policy Impact**: The People's Bank of China has implemented measures such as interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to stimulate liquidity, with new RMB loans expected to reach 800 billion yuan in May 2025, a decrease of 150 billion yuan year-on-year [13][40]. 2. **Trade Relations**: The Geneva talks between the U.S. and China have led to some easing of tariffs, but high tariffs remain a significant barrier to trade, affecting both exports and imports [6][30]. 3. **Sector-Specific Impacts**: The manufacturing sector is expected to benefit from government policies promoting consumption upgrades and equipment renewal, although traditional industries face challenges due to capacity reductions and economic restructuring [19][28]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape and projections for the near future.

" 财报发布当日，三大电商平台618活动同时开启，流量宽度成为 胜负手。 " 作者丨王薇 编辑丨梁辰 长达五十多分钟的分析师问答环节中，京东首席执行官许冉用了近乎一半的时间回答有关外卖的问题。可 惜的是，当日订单量未能突破2万单的关口。 5月13日港股收盘后，京东集团披露2025年一季度业绩报告显示好于预期。这家公司正面临着国内激烈的 行业竞争和国际贸易的不确定性，但消费者信心的改善推动季度营收和利润双增。不过，官方并未在财报 中披露有关外卖的具体业务数据，只是将其单独罗列在新业务板块中进行介绍。 该公司披露，一季度调整后净利润（不包括股权激励、长期投资公允价值变动等）为128亿元人民币，同 比增长约为43%。营收同比增长15.8%，约为3011亿元人民币。这一数据超过了FactSet调查的分析师预 期。受此消息影响，京东美股开盘后股价涨幅超过5%，5月14日港股以3.36%的涨幅收盘。 业绩发布当日晚间20时，京东心动购物季开启。其竞争对手阿里巴巴旗下电商平台淘天集团和字节跳动旗 下抖音电商也于当日相继宣布618活动开启。尽管许冉在电话会议上表示，京东仍以5月31日作为正式开 始日，但受访券商分析师表示，心 ...