Group 1 - The core issue discussed is the contradiction between the apparent improvement in the fundamentals of soda ash, characterized by supply contraction and inventory depletion, and the declining prices observed in the market [1] Group 2 - The article highlights that despite the positive indicators in supply and inventory, market prices for soda ash continue to fall, raising questions about the underlying market dynamics [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and future outlook of the Chinese separator industry, highlighting production growth, market dynamics, pricing trends, and the need for cost reduction amidst increasing competition [1][3][4]. Production and Market Dynamics - In the first half of 2025, China's separator production reached 13.94 billion square meters, marking a year-on-year increase of 53.2%. Wet separators accounted for 11.42 billion square meters, while dry separators contributed 2.52 billion square meters [1]. - The market is dominated by leading companies, with Enjie holding over 30% market share and the top four companies controlling 72.6% of the market. The share of dry separators has decreased to around 18% due to the transition from dry to wet methods and significant price drops in wet separators [1][3]. Capacity and Utilization - Domestic capacity expansion is slowing down, with ongoing projects from major players like Xingyuan Materials and Enjie. The overall capacity utilization rate in the separator industry is 65%, with wet separators exceeding 70% and dry separators below 50% [3]. - The industry is currently facing a price decline cycle, leading to widespread losses among companies, with less than 20% of firms remaining profitable [3]. Pricing Trends - There is a stark contrast in pricing between dry and wet separators. Despite low utilization rates, dry separator prices have increased due to high concentration in the industry, while wet separator prices continue to decline due to market fragmentation [4]. - In the first half of 2025, the price of 7 µm wet separators fell by 19.4%, and 7+2+1 µm wet separators decreased by 15.7%, while 16 µm dry separators saw a price increase of 6% [4]. Industry Trends - Cost reduction is a continuous demand from downstream sectors, with a focus on increasing the use of domestic raw materials and enhancing single-line capacity to lower manufacturing costs [7]. - The demand for dry coated separators is rising, particularly for high-performance products in mid-to-high-end power batteries, although supply remains tight due to limited coating capacity among manufacturers [7]. - The application of 5 µm ultra-thin wet separators is expanding, with leading companies accounting for about 30% of usage, but supply is still concentrated among a few manufacturers, indicating potential technological bottlenecks [7]. Market Outlook - Given the ongoing overcapacity in the separator market, there is a possibility of further price declines, with the industry nearing a bottom [9]. - The continuous price drop is making survival increasingly difficult for companies, potentially leading to a wave of industry consolidation [10]. - The current domestic expansion phase is concluding, with future capacity growth expected to shift towards overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia [11].

价格是市场经济中很重要的信号，企业看到价格上升才会生产或扩大生产。那么为什么有企业愿意"以价换量"，降价也要生产呢？微观经济学中有个和宏 观领域相似的场景：面对产品售价持续走低，企业非但不缩减生产，反而选择"逆周期扩产"。这种看似矛盾的行为背后，暗含精密的成本核算逻辑。一些 很"卷"的企业甚至会一边降价，一边扩大生产。此时企业的经营目标已不是"利润最大化"，而是"亏损最小化"。经济运行中，很多工业和制造业部门的企 业都有"以价换量"的共同特征，即通过价格调整策略换取市场份额。这种行为虽能维系企业生存，但持续的价格下行可能会削弱市场信心。 回望日本经济史，1990年房地产市场的剧烈调整之后，实际GDP表现稳定但GDP平减指数持续下行，这种经济指标的"剪刀差"将决策者推向两难境地：当 实际GDP达标与价格持续低迷同时存在，政策该何去何从？面对这种特殊的经济形态，可能会有两种解决办法。一种观点是维持现有政策力度，守住实际 GDP就是守住经济基本盘；另一种观点是必须重视名义GDP收缩的现实，主张采取更积极的刺激政策。 当年日本在房地产调整后的前十年，日本央行尚未建立明确的价格调控机制。只要实际GDP保持正增长，便视为 ...