近日，中央财办分管日常工作的副主任、中央农办主任韩文秀在"2025—2026中国经济年 会"上表示，2026年将根据形势变化出台实施增量政策，协同发挥存量政策和增量政策的集成 效应，推动经济稳中向好。 再次，为了推动经济高质量发展，将深入推进重点产业提质升级，加紧培育壮大新动能。优 化提升以钢铁、石化、机械制造、轻工纺织及建材等为代表的传统产业，重点在于通过技术 改造与绿色转型提升产业效能，预计将撬动并新增约10万亿元的市场空间。打造新兴支柱产 业，加快新能源、新材料、航空航天、低空经济等战略性新兴产业集群发展，有望催生数万 亿元乃至更大规模市场。前瞻布局未来产业，如量子科技、生物制造、氢能与核聚变能等， 预计未来十年新增规模可相当于再造一个高技术产业。 宏观政策的实施将更加强调系统性与协同性，注重加强财政、货币、产业、区域等各类政策 的协调配合。在具体政策取向上，将继续实施更加积极的财政政策，在保持必要的财政支出 强度、赤字和债务总规模合理可控的同时，着力优化支出结构，提高政府债券资金使用效 率，重点投向惠民生、扩内需、增后劲的关键领域。货币政策则将延续适度宽松的基调，灵 活运用降准、降息等多种工具，保持流 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is expected to grow around 5% this year, maintaining its position as the largest engine of global economic growth, despite facing various internal and external challenges [1][2]. Economic Performance - Major economic indicators have performed better than expected, with the economy projected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan this year, following significant growth milestones in previous years [1]. - The fixed asset investment growth rate turned negative in September, with a further decline in October, influenced by factors such as the real estate market adjustment and increased domestic competition [3][4]. Policy Measures - The government plans to implement incremental policies in response to changing circumstances, aiming to synergize existing policies to promote economic stability and growth [1]. - Key tasks for next year include prioritizing domestic demand and building a strong domestic market, with a focus on enhancing consumption and investment [2][3]. Investment Opportunities - There is significant investment potential in urbanization, technological innovation, and infrastructure, with current per capita infrastructure capital only at 20-30% of that in developed countries [4]. - The government aims to increase central budget investment and implement major projects to stimulate fixed asset investment and private sector engagement [4][6]. Risk Management - Emphasis is placed on managing risks in key areas, including local government debt, with measures to prevent the accumulation of hidden debts and ensure financial stability [5][6].

来源：市场资讯 （来源：ETF智选） 昨天的会议通稿，让人信心十足。 两相对比之下，可以看到：去年实际上是存在着"问题不一定能很快解决"的担忧的，但经过了一年的实 践，发现这些问题"经过努力是可以解决的"，相比去年的会议而言，信心大增。 信心大增对市场一定是好事吗？那倒也不全然如此。 事实上，通稿中更强调存量政策发挥效果，而非继续强调使用增量超常规政策。 也就是说，在某些大家都没想到的行业出现超预期的政策，概率不大。 更可能的是，在大家已经知道的行业持续发力，量变产生质变。 比如说，这次对于消费的表述出现了重大变化，把消费放到了很高的位置上。 会议指出，我国经济发展中老问题、新挑战仍然不少，外部环境变化影响加深，国内供强需弱矛盾突 出，重点领域风险隐患较多。 这些大多是发展中、转型中的问题，经过努力是可以解决的，我国经济长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势 没有改变。 而2024年的表述是： 会议指出，当前外部环境变化带来的不利影响加深，我国经济运行仍面临不少困难和挑战，主要是国内 需求不足，部分企业生产经营困难，群众就业增收面临压力，风险隐患仍然较多。 同时必须看到，我国经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜能大，长期向好 ...

Group 1: Economic Policy Framework - The central economic work meeting emphasizes the principle of "seeking progress while maintaining stability," focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations to ensure smooth economic operation[2] - The meeting suggests a combination of "mandatory options + optional options" in macroeconomic policy, indicating a relatively stable approach to mandatory macro policies while allowing for counter-cyclical adjustments as needed[3] - The integration of stock and incremental policies is highlighted, with a commitment to continue implementing a more proactive fiscal policy while maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and total debt levels[3] Group 2: Consumer and Market Dynamics - Consumption is prioritized over investment in policy discussions, with specific measures to enhance consumer capacity, including the implementation of urban and rural resident income increase plans[4] - The meeting calls for the expansion of quality goods and services supply and the removal of unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector to unleash service consumption potential[4] - The focus on addressing "involution" competition indicates a recognition of deeper structural issues, requiring comprehensive solutions rather than superficial capacity clearing[4] Group 3: Taxation and Industry Support - The meeting proposes to improve the local tax system, addressing the decline in local tax revenue share in fiscal income and expenditure, with potential adjustments to shared tax ratios to stabilize local government finances[5] - Specific industries are identified for targeted support, including artificial intelligence, digital trade, and green trade, aiming to create a favorable policy environment for development[5] - Employment remains a top priority in social policy, with a focus on stabilizing job opportunities for key groups such as college graduates and migrant workers[5] Group 4: Risk Management - The meeting emphasizes risk prevention, particularly in the real estate sector and local government debt, encouraging the acquisition of existing residential properties for affordable housing[6] - The report highlights potential risks including policy changes, unexpected economic fluctuations, and delays in updating research information[6]

Economic Overview - The GDP for the first three quarters reached 10,150.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% at constant prices, indicating a stable economic growth rate in Q3 and a likelihood of achieving the annual growth target [1][5] - The overall economic environment shows a structural impact from changes in supply and demand, with a need for objective recognition of slowing investment growth and the necessity to boost consumption [1][5] Financial Data - In September, new social financing amounted to 3.53 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 229.7 billion yuan, reflecting a slight decline in the growth rate of RMB loans [1][2] - New RMB loans in September were 1.29 trillion yuan, down 300 billion yuan year-on-year, primarily due to weak consumer sentiment and a slowdown in corporate investment expansion [1][2] Household Sector - In September, short-term loans for households increased by 142.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 127.9 billion yuan, while medium to long-term loans rose by 250 billion yuan, showing a slight year-on-year increase [2] - The implementation of the personal consumption loan subsidy scheme introduced in August is still pending, and its stimulating effect on short-term loans requires time to materialize [2] Corporate Sector - In September, corporate sector loans totaled 1.22 trillion yuan, with short-term loans at 710 billion yuan and medium to long-term loans at 910 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 50 billion yuan [2] - The investment willingness of enterprises remains subdued, with insufficient new orders impacting investment expansion [2][6] Government Sector - In September, net financing from government bonds was 1.1886 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 347.1 billion yuan, indicating a slowdown in bond issuance compared to the previous high base [2] - The focus of macroeconomic policy is on structural adjustments rather than total volume, emphasizing the effective use of existing policies [2][8] Inflation and Prices - In September, the CPI decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, while the core CPI increased by 1%, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth in core CPI [3][4] - The rise in core CPI is driven by increased prices in categories such as old-for-new exchanges and gold jewelry [3][4] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment decreased by 0.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with infrastructure investment growing by 1.1% and manufacturing investment increasing by 4% [5][6] - The shift from investment-driven growth to innovation-driven growth is evident, with funds moving towards new technologies and industries [5][6] Consumption Patterns - Consumer spending showed signs of slowing down in Q3, with retail sales growth decelerating compared to earlier in the year [7] - The effectiveness of fiscal policies aimed at boosting personal consumption loans and the financial market's ability to enhance residents' income will be crucial for future consumption growth [7] Foreign Trade - Exports increased by 6.1% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with a notable 8.3% growth in September, demonstrating resilience in foreign trade despite global uncertainties [7] - Factors contributing to export resilience include preemptive actions by foreign trade enterprises and strong growth in sectors like new energy vehicles and solar products [7] Future Outlook - The completion of the annual growth target is highly probable, with Q4 expected to focus on stability and effective use of existing policies [8] - Increased fiscal spending towards the end of the year is anticipated to support necessary growth rates, while monetary policy will concentrate on structural tools [8]

Group 1 - The implementation of a package of incremental policies since September 26 last year has led to a steady recovery in both invoice sales and tax revenue growth, indicating a positive trend in the Chinese economy [1][3] - From Q3 of last year to Q3 of this year, the quarterly sales revenue growth rates for enterprises were 0.4%, 2.6%, 2.1%, 3.1%, and 4.4%, showing a gradual increase [1] - Tax revenue has turned positive after seven months of negative growth, with a cumulative increase in tax revenue since February this year, reflecting improved fiscal income collection [1] Group 2 - Tax revenue from the manufacturing sector increased by 5.4%, accounting for 31% of total tax revenue, with high-end manufacturing sectors like railway and aerospace seeing significant growth [2] - The domestic value-added tax grew by 3.2%, indicating improved business operations, while corporate income tax rose by 4.1%, reflecting better profitability in certain industries [2] - The real estate sector's tax revenue decreased by 9.8%, but the decline has narrowed significantly compared to earlier periods, aided by tax incentives aimed at stabilizing the market [2] Group 3 - The acceleration of equipment updates and the continuation of the old-for-new consumption policy have boosted consumer activity, with machinery equipment purchases rising by 9.7% year-on-year [3] - Retail sales of household appliances, such as refrigerators and televisions, have seen substantial growth, with increases of 55.4% and 35.3% respectively [3] - The incremental policies are viewed as effective measures to address economic challenges, focusing on stimulating consumption, stabilizing the real estate market, and activating the capital market [3]

Core Insights - The latest VAT invoice data indicates a steady recovery in national enterprise sales revenue growth, with quarterly growth rates of 0.4%, 2.6%, 2.1%, 3.1%, and 4.4% from Q3 last year to Q3 this year, reflecting an overall upward trend in economic recovery [1] - Tax revenue has increased due to improved business conditions, with tax revenue (excluding export tax rebates) showing positive growth for eight consecutive months since February this year, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.6% and 6.9% in Q2 and Q3 respectively [1] - The significant increase in tax revenue in September, particularly in Q3, is attributed to both economic improvement and a lower base from the previous year, alongside a narrowing decline in PPI [1] Industry Analysis - The manufacturing sector accounts for 31% of total tax revenue, contributing 48% of the total increase in tax revenue, highlighting its critical role as an economic "ballast" [1] - High-end manufacturing industries have shown rapid tax revenue growth, indicating a positive trend in this segment [1] - Domestic VAT has increased by 3.2% year-on-year, reflecting improved business operations, while corporate income tax has grown by 4.1%, indicating an improvement in profitability for certain industries [1]

Core Insights - The implementation of a series of incremental and stock policies since September 26 last year has led to a steady recovery in invoice sales and tax revenue, reflecting a positive trend in China's economy [1][2][6]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The growth rate of national enterprise sales revenue has shown a steady increase, with quarterly growth rates of 0.4%, 2.6%, 2.1%, 3.1%, and 4.4% from last year's third quarter to this year's third quarter [2]. - Tax revenue has turned positive after seven months of negative growth, with a cumulative increase since February this year, showing year-on-year changes of -0.4%, +2.6%, and +6.9% for the first three quarters [2]. Group 2: Capital Market Performance - Capital market-related tax revenue has increased significantly, with a year-on-year growth of 56.8%, and securities transaction stamp duty rising by 110.5% [3]. - The total market value of A-share listed companies surpassed 100 trillion yuan for the first time in August, and the Shanghai Composite Index reached a ten-year high in September [3]. Group 3: Industry and Tax Revenue Growth - The manufacturing sector's tax revenue grew by 5.4%, accounting for 31% of total tax revenue, with high-end manufacturing sectors like railway and aerospace seeing tax revenue growth of 31.5% [4]. - The domestic value-added tax increased by 3.2%, and corporate income tax rose by 4.1%, indicating improved profitability in various industries [4]. Group 4: Real Estate Market - The decline in real estate-related tax revenue has narrowed, with a year-on-year decrease of 9.8%, and a reduction of about 5% after accounting for tax incentives [5]. - The implementation of policies to stabilize the real estate market has led to a significant reduction in housing transaction costs, contributing to market stabilization [5]. Group 5: Consumer Activity - The policy of replacing old consumer goods has stimulated consumption, with machinery equipment purchases increasing by 9.7% year-on-year, and high-tech manufacturing equipment purchases rising by 11.8% [5]. - Retail sales of home appliances, such as refrigerators and televisions, have seen substantial growth, with increases of 55.4% and 35.3% respectively [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a steady recovery in tax revenue and invoice sales in China, indicating a positive economic trend supported by various policies [1][2][3] - Tax revenue from the capital market has shown significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 56.8%, particularly driven by a 110.5% rise in securities transaction stamp duty [3] - The manufacturing sector has demonstrated resilience, with tax revenue increasing by 5.4%, contributing to 31% of total tax revenue and accounting for 48% of the overall revenue increase [2] Group 2 - The implementation of consumption-boosting policies has led to a notable increase in the purchase of machinery and consumer goods, with a 9.7% rise in machinery equipment purchases and a 55.4% increase in retail sales of refrigerators [2] - The real estate sector has seen a reduction in tax revenue decline, attributed to effective policies aimed at stabilizing the market, with nearly 80 billion RMB in new tax reductions implemented this year [3] - The overall tax data reflects the effectiveness of incremental policies focused on stimulating consumption, stabilizing the real estate market, and activating the capital market, as indicated by the steady increase in invoice data and tax revenue [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that China's tax revenue and invoice sales are showing steady recovery, reflecting a positive economic trend driven by various policies and improved market confidence [1][2][3] Group 2 - Tax revenue from the manufacturing sector increased by 5.4%, accounting for 31% of total tax revenue, with high-end manufacturing showing rapid growth [2] - Domestic value-added tax (VAT) rose by 3.2%, while corporate income tax grew by 4.1%, indicating improved profitability in certain industries [2] - Capital market-related tax revenue surged by 56.8%, with securities transaction stamp duty increasing by 110.5%, highlighting active stock market trading [3] - Real estate-related tax revenue decline has narrowed, reflecting the effectiveness of policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, with nearly 800 billion RMB in new tax reductions implemented this year [3] - The overall tax data illustrates the effectiveness of incremental policies aimed at boosting consumption, stabilizing the real estate market, and activating the capital market [3]