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高盛:美国潜在通胀总体仍较为温和
news flash· 2025-07-15 13:11
Core Insights - Goldman Sachs indicates that potential inflation in the U.S. remains relatively mild despite early signs of tariff impacts in the recently released Consumer Price Index (CPI) [1] - The firm anticipates increased price pressures during the summer, with the CPI reports for July and August being critical milestones to watch [1] - Currently, the Federal Reserve is in a wait-and-see mode, but if potential inflation continues to remain mild, there is still a possibility for the Fed to restart the rate cut cycle in the fall [1]
美联储博斯蒂克:认为一段时间内价格可能面临压力。
news flash· 2025-07-03 15:55
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Bostic indicates that prices may face pressure for some time [1] Group 1 - Bostic's comments suggest a cautious outlook on inflation trends in the near future [1] - The statement reflects ongoing concerns regarding economic stability and price levels [1]
美国6月ISM服务业PMI指数50.8 就业指数收缩 商业活动和订单回升
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-07-03 15:27
Core Insights - The US services sector showed slow expansion in June, with minimal growth despite a rebound in business activity and orders, while the employment index experienced its largest contraction in three months [1][6]. Economic Indicators - The ISM non-manufacturing index for June was reported at 50.8, slightly above the expected 50.6, and an increase from May's 49.9, indicating a return to expansion after a contraction [3]. - The business activity index returned to the expansion zone in June after stagnation in the previous month, while order quantities also saw moderate growth [4]. Employment and Pricing - The ISM employment index fell by 3.5 points to 47.2, marking the third contraction in four months, as service providers adjusted their workforce due to a rapid decrease in backlog orders [4]. - The prices index for materials and services decreased but remained near the highest levels since the end of 2022, indicating persistent price pressures in the services sector [4][7]. Economic Growth and Consumer Sentiment - The data reflects a slowdown in economic growth for the year, with consumers and businesses still grappling with the impacts of trade policies [6]. - The second quarter saw a steady expansion of the US economy at an annualized growth rate close to 1.5%, with service demand prompting the fastest increase in employment since January [6]. Future Outlook - There are concerns about the sustainability of business activity expansion in the coming months, with high price pressures persisting despite some easing in demand and competition [7]. - The overall inflation rate for service charges remains the second highest in over two years, potentially pushing consumer price inflation upward in the short term [7].
美国里士满联储主席巴尔金(Tom Barkin):移民数量下降缓解失业压力。确实相信我们将看到价格压力。关税可能还会给就业带来压力。
news flash· 2025-06-26 12:53
Core Insights - The decline in immigration numbers is believed to alleviate unemployment pressures [1] - There is a strong belief that price pressures will be observed in the near future [1] - Tariffs may also exert pressure on employment levels [1]
美联储巴尔金:确实相信我们将看到价格压力。
news flash· 2025-06-26 12:51
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Barkin expresses confidence that price pressures will be observed in the economy [1] Group 1 - Barkin emphasizes the belief in the persistence of price pressures, indicating ongoing inflation concerns [1]
美国5月PPI速评
news flash· 2025-06-12 12:48
Core Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in the U.S. increased by 2.6% year-on-year in May, aligning with expectations, while the previous value was a 2.4% increase [1] - The core PPI rose by 3% year-on-year in May, which was below the expected 3.1%, and the previous value was also 3.1% [1] - The data indicates that producer price inflation remains moderate due to suppressed costs of goods and services [1] Industry Implications - Economists believe that price pressures will intensify in the second half of the year as companies seek to protect profit margins amid rising costs [1] - The PPI data shows an increase in profit margins for wholesalers and retailers in May, particularly in the automotive and machinery wholesale sectors, following a decline in April [1] - Profit margins have fluctuated monthly this year, highlighting the uncertainty of trade policies on prices and demand [1]
美联储贴现利率会议纪要:几位理事就与关税相关的预期价格压力发表了评论,包括消费者价格上涨。劳动力市场状况依然健康,一些董事指出人员流动率低且裁员人数有限。
news flash· 2025-06-03 18:14
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's discount rate meeting minutes indicate concerns among several board members regarding anticipated price pressures related to tariffs, including rising consumer prices [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The labor market remains healthy, with low employee turnover and limited layoffs noted by some board members [1]