芦哲、张佳炜（芦哲系东吴证券首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛成员） 核心观点 核心观点：中期选举政治周期临近，特朗普料在2026年促成更宽松的财政、货币政策组合，让美国经济结束当前的软着陆周期，重新走向扩张。与此同 时，AI已成为拉动美国增长的重要增量贡献。考察基本面并对比历史周期可见，此轮AI产业引领的美国科技企业投资浪潮尚在上升期，AI相关投资在 2026年预计稳健增长，成为美国经济走向扩张的另一大助力。基于美联储全年降息3次的基准假设，我们预计2026全年美国通胀维持在3.0% (2025年预计 为2.8%），GDP同比增速预计在2.3-2.5%( 2025年预计为1.9%），非农就业平均10万/月(2025年预计为6.6万），均高于当前的市场一致预期。 2026年美国经济展望：先抑后扬，走向扩张。美国经济周期已从2021年的过热、2022年的滞胀转向2023年至今的软着陆阶段。随着产出缺口的闭合，美国 经济也已步入软着陆的后半场。展望看，随着中期选举政治周期临近，特朗普料在2026年促成更宽松的财政、货币政策组合，让美国经济结束当前的软着 陆周期，重新走向扩张。但2026年更宽松的财政与货币政策组合 ...

【大河财立方消息】10月30日，美联储将基准利率下调25个基点至3.75%~4.00%，为连续第二次会议降 息，符合市场预期。也是自2024年9月以来第五次降息。 美联储FOMC声明显示，现有数据显示经济正以温和速度扩张，经济前景的不确定性依然较高。今年以 来通胀有所上升，仍处于高位。政策委员会密切关注双重使命两方面的风险，认为就业方面的下行风险 已上升。 美联储主席鲍威尔表示，现有数据表明美国经济前景未有太大变化，正在温和扩张。停摆前的数据显 示，经济可能正朝着更稳固的轨道发展；政府停摆将暂时拖累经济活动。通胀水平仍略显偏高，近期通 胀预期已有所上升；需要管控通胀持续更久的风险。有责任确保其不会成为持续性问题。 交易员下调对美联储12月降息的押注，目前预计降息概率为71%，低于此前的90%。 责编:陈玉尧 | 审核:李震 | 监审:古筝 ...

Core Insights - The US services sector showed slow expansion in June, with minimal growth despite a rebound in business activity and orders, while the employment index experienced its largest contraction in three months [1][6]. Economic Indicators - The ISM non-manufacturing index for June was reported at 50.8, slightly above the expected 50.6, and an increase from May's 49.9, indicating a return to expansion after a contraction [3]. - The business activity index returned to the expansion zone in June after stagnation in the previous month, while order quantities also saw moderate growth [4]. Employment and Pricing - The ISM employment index fell by 3.5 points to 47.2, marking the third contraction in four months, as service providers adjusted their workforce due to a rapid decrease in backlog orders [4]. - The prices index for materials and services decreased but remained near the highest levels since the end of 2022, indicating persistent price pressures in the services sector [4][7]. Economic Growth and Consumer Sentiment - The data reflects a slowdown in economic growth for the year, with consumers and businesses still grappling with the impacts of trade policies [6]. - The second quarter saw a steady expansion of the US economy at an annualized growth rate close to 1.5%, with service demand prompting the fastest increase in employment since January [6]. Future Outlook - There are concerns about the sustainability of business activity expansion in the coming months, with high price pressures persisting despite some easing in demand and competition [7]. - The overall inflation rate for service charges remains the second highest in over two years, potentially pushing consumer price inflation upward in the short term [7].

Group 1 - The U.S. House of Representatives passed a significant tax reform bill, which could potentially increase the national debt by approximately $3.8 trillion over the next decade, raising the current debt level of $36.2 trillion [1] - The stock market showed mixed results following the tax reform news, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing at 41,859.09, down 1.35 points, and the S&P 500 index down 2.60 points to 5,842.01, while the Nasdaq Composite rose by 53.09 points to 18,925.74 [1] - Among the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500, 8 sectors declined, with utilities and healthcare leading the losses at 1.41% and 0.76%, respectively, while consumer discretionary and communication services were the best performers, rising by 0.56% and 0.32% [1] Group 2 - Short-term economic benefits from the tax reform are anticipated, including GDP growth and increased spending, particularly in defense, which could stimulate the economy [2] - Long-term concerns regarding the tax reform include exacerbating the fiscal deficit, leading to rising yields and declining bond attractiveness, as noted by analysts [2] - The bond market showed some relief after Moody's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, with the 30-year Treasury yield falling below 5.1% and the 10-year benchmark yield around 4.55% [2] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve is considering interest rate cuts if the Trump administration's tariff policies are less concerning than previously thought, with recent data indicating a rebound in U.S. business activity [3] - The preliminary S&P Global Composite PMI for May rose to 52.1 from 50.6 in April, indicating moderate economic expansion, although the labor market shows signs of weakness with rising unemployment claims [3] - Market expectations suggest at least two rate cuts of 25 basis points each by the end of the year, as investors monitor economic trends and fiscal policy developments [3]