1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Oscillating weakly [3][7] - Asphalt: Oscillating weakly [3][8] - High-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating weakly [3][8] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating weakly [3][11] - PX: Oscillating [12] - PTA: Oscillating [12][13] - Pure benzene: Oscillating [13][15] - Styrene: Oscillating [15][17] - MEG: Oscillating [17][19] - Short fiber: Oscillating [19][20] - Bottle chip: Oscillating [20][21] - Methanol: Oscillating [23][26] - Urea: Oscillating weakly [24] - LLDPE: Oscillating [27] - PP: Oscillating [28][29] - PL: Oscillating [29] - PVC: Oscillating [31] - Caustic soda: Oscillating [31][32] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical factors have led to a slight increase in oil prices, and domestic macroeconomic factors have boosted the prices of chemical products. The future trend depends on whether there are actual supply reduction policies [1][2][3]. - The prices of chemical products have been lifted by macro - sentiment, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether there will be actual supply reduction in the later stage [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Outlook - **Crude oil**: The port attacked on September 12 has resumed operation, but refineries are still frequently attacked, and the international diesel market supply is tightening. Under the background of OPEC + accelerating production increase, the supply - demand pattern shows a weak reality. The oil price is expected to oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances [7]. - **Asphalt**: The 3500 position of options has concentrated holdings, and the battle between bulls and bears is fierce. The high valuation of asphalt is expected to decline with the increase of warehouse receipts [8]. - **High - sulfur fuel oil**: Russian fuel oil exports have reached a record high, and the demand outlook has deteriorated. Geopolitical upgrades have only a short - term impact on prices [8]. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: It follows the oscillation of crude oil. It is facing supply increase and demand decline, and is expected to maintain low - valuation operation [11]. - **PX**: Supply has reached a high level. In the short term, it oscillates following costs and sentiment. It is necessary to pay attention to the support around 6600 [12]. - **PTA**: The return of maintenance devices has hindered the upward expectation of polyester load. It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the support around 4600 [12][13]. - **Pure benzene**: Affected by styrene devices and macro factors, it rose on the day. If styrene maintenance occurs in September - October, the pattern will return to oversupply [13][15]. - **Styrene**: Affected by macro and device factors, it rebounded. In the short term, it may oscillate with a small rebound, but the inventory suppresses the increase [15][17]. - **MEG**: The port has a small inventory build - up, and it is difficult to see continuous build - up in the month. It is expected to oscillate in a range, and attention should be paid to the support around 4200 [17][19]. - **Short fiber**: It fluctuates following costs, and the demand is average. In the short term, it oscillates and sorts [19][20]. - **Bottle chip**: It has limited driving forces and follows passively. It oscillates, and the absolute value follows raw materials [20][21]. - **Methanol**: There are still contradictions between the near and far months. The futures price oscillates. There may be low - buying opportunities from September to October [23]. - **Urea**: Affected by spot quotes, the futures rebounded. The fundamentals are still loosely supplied, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [24]. - **LLDPE**: Supported by the previous low and downstream replenishment before festivals, it oscillates in the short term. The downward rhythm of oil price depends on geopolitical risks and overseas inventory accumulation [27]. - **PP**: Slightly rebounded due to increased maintenance and rising oil prices. It oscillates in the short term [28][29]. - **PL**: Supported by PDH maintenance, it oscillates in the short term [29]. - **PVC**: With weak reality and strong expectation, it oscillates. The pressure comes from long - term fundamentals, and the support comes from rising dynamic costs and improved market sentiment [31]. - **Caustic soda**: The spot price is under pressure to decline, and the futures is cautiously weak. The downward space is limited considering the alumina production expectation in the far - month [31][32]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period spreads**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent (M1 - M2: 0.41, - 0.04), Dubai (M1 - M2: 1.75, 0.54), etc. [33] - **Basis and warehouse receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis, change values, and warehouse receipt numbers, like asphalt (basis: 127, - 35; warehouse receipts: 67360) [34] - **Inter - variety spreads**: There are various inter - variety spread values and changes, for example, 1 - month PP - 3MA: - 222, 2 [36] 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although specific content for each variety (methanol, urea, styrene, etc.) is mentioned, no detailed and summarizable data or analysis is provided in the given text.

Group 1: CPI Trends - June CPI shows a month-on-month decrease of -0.1% and a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, ending a four-month streak of negative values[1] - The contribution of new price factors to the June CPI year-on-year growth is 0.1 percentage points, while the tailing factors contribute 0.0 percentage points[1] - The CPI structure reveals that food items decreased by -0.3% year-on-year, while non-food items increased by 0.1% year-on-year[1] Group 2: PPI Trends - June PPI shows a month-on-month decrease of -0.4% and a year-on-year decrease of -3.6%, marking 33 consecutive months of negative values[1] - The contribution of new price factors to the June PPI year-on-year growth is -2.0 percentage points, while tailing factors contribute -1.6 percentage points[3] - The PPI structure indicates that the production materials category decreased by -4.4% year-on-year, while the living materials category decreased by -1.4% year-on-year[3] Group 3: Future Outlook - For Q2 2025, the average year-on-year growth rate of CPI is projected at -0.03%, while PPI is projected at -3.20%, indicating a potential decline in nominal GDP growth compared to Q1[4] - The central government's emphasis on addressing low-price disorder in competition may lead to improvements in product quality and a gradual exit of outdated production capacity[4] - The contribution of tailing factors to PPI is expected to rise, potentially alleviating the extent of PPI declines in the coming months[4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent meeting of the Central Financial Committee emphasizes the deepening of the construction of a unified national market, with a focus on the basic requirements of "Five Unifications and One Opening" [1][2]. Group 1: Five Unifications and One Opening - The basic requirements of "Five Unifications and One Opening" include unifying market basic systems, infrastructure, government behavior standards, market supervision and law enforcement, and resource markets, while continuously expanding domestic and international openness [2][5]. - The shift from "Five Unifications and One Breaking" to "Five Unifications and One Opening" reflects a strategic upgrade, indicating a transition from breaking down barriers to enabling openness and collaboration [3][4]. Group 2: Focus Areas and Implementation - The meeting highlights the need to focus on key challenges such as regulating low-price disorderly competition among enterprises, enhancing product quality, and promoting the orderly exit of outdated production capacity [6][11]. - The establishment of foundational systems for the unified national market is underway, including the introduction of the "Fair Competition Review Regulations" to ensure equal participation in market competition [4][5]. Group 3: International Trade and Market Integration - The emphasis on expanding domestic and international openness is crucial for the construction of a unified national market, with a focus on integrating domestic and foreign trade to facilitate the flow of goods and resources [8][9]. - The meeting stresses the importance of promoting high-level openness and the integration of domestic and international markets as a pathway to enhance economic resilience [8][10].

Domestic News - The Central Financial Committee, chaired by Xi Jinping, emphasized the need to advance the construction of a unified national market and promote high-quality development of the marine economy, while also addressing issues of low-price disorderly competition among enterprises and encouraging the exit of backward production capacity [1] - Domestic refined oil prices have been raised, resulting in an additional cost of 9 yuan for a full tank of gas [2] - The Caixin China PMI for June recorded a value of 50.4, an increase of 2.1 percentage points from May [3] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority purchased 20.018 billion HKD in the market due to the Hong Kong dollar hitting the weak side of the peg [4] - The Chinese Foreign Ministry announced sanctions against former Philippine senator Torentino, prohibiting his entry into mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macau [5] International News - U.S. officials are seeking to narrow the scope of trade agreements, aiming to reach a deal by July 9, with India looking to finalize a temporary trade agreement this week [1] - Trump stated he does not consider extending the July 9 deadline for tariff negotiations and expressed doubts about reaching an agreement with Japan, which may face tariffs of 30% or 35% [2] - The U.S. will prioritize trade negotiations with India over Japan [3] - The Trump administration has officially closed the U.S. International Development Agency [4] - The Thai Constitutional Court has decided to suspend Prayuth Chan-o-cha from exercising his duties as Prime Minister [5] - U.S. job openings unexpectedly rose to the highest level since November last year [6] - Federal Reserve Chair Powell stated it is too early to assert whether a rate cut in July is premature, leaving all options open [7] - The U.S. Senate passed the "Big and Beautiful" bill, with the House expected to vote on it this week [8] - Trump expressed disinterest in owning electric vehicles due to safety concerns and threatened to "consider expelling" Elon Musk [9] - Trump threatened to scrutinize Musk and his companies regarding subsidies, to which Musk responded by suggesting to cut all subsidies immediately [10]