证券研究报告|专题报告 金融工程 2025年12月12日 新老经济的平衡 ----2026年A股市场策略展望 证券分析师： 李杨 执业证书编号： S0210524100005 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 华福证券 华福证券 投资要点 2 华福证券 华福证券 ➢ 2025年市场表现回顾。2025年，在政策托底下，经济环境逐步企稳。从资产端看，PMI持续位于荣枯线以下，呈现"弱企稳"特点。 PPI同比降幅收窄，CPI整体向上修复，经济结构性复苏催生小盘科技股引领的"快牛"行情。实际经济缓坡向下名义经济向下幅度更 大。负债端实现由"空股多债"向"多股空债"的转变，股债性价比扭转，资金交易逻辑变化。 "固收+"基金规模映射广义资管资金交易 倾向，2024年12月以来固收+基金规模稳步增长，权益持仓向电子、有色、新能源等高弹性板块增配。市场风格加速变迁，从一季 度小盘成长占优过渡到三季度大盘成长估值拔升，高波资产优势凸显，但后续风格切换。公募基金市场维持存量博弈，缺乏增量 ，主动权益基金偏配科技板块。超额储蓄见顶下行，开始流入权益市场。整体上，2025年经济企稳，但负债端状态向增量转换。 ➢ 新经济与传统经济的平衡。 ...

2025.09.25 本文字数：2897，阅读时长大约4.5分钟 作者 |第一财经 王方然 盘中一度突破400元整数关口，总市值超过1.83万亿元，获得"宁王"之称数年后，宁德时代的市值，终 于在9月25日超过了贵州茅台。 9月25日开盘后，宁德时代A、H股强劲拉升，最大涨幅均接近6%，总市值超过贵州茅台数百亿元。收 盘时虽有回落，但市值仍然略高于贵州茅台。 过去短短9天时间里，宁德时代总市值激增了约3100亿元。公开信息显示在整个A股，市值2800亿元以 上的公司，总共也只有45家。分析认为，该股近期大涨，是市场、政策、业绩共同催化的结果。 在业内人士看来，宁德时代市值追上贵州茅台，并非一般意义上的股价波动，而在一定程度上预示着以 新能源、硬科技为核心的"新经济"力量，正在资本舞台上挑战以消费和传统制造为代表的"传统势力"。 盘中市值超越贵州茅台 9月25日早上开盘后，宁德时代A、H股先后开始拉升，A股盘中上涨近6%，突破400元整数关口，触及 402.59元/股高点；H股盘中最大涨幅接近6%，一度上摸535.5港元，双双创下历史新高。 这让宁德时代的市值，一举超过贵州茅台。按盘中最高价计算，该股仅A股的市 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market capitalization of CATL has surpassed that of Kweichow Moutai, marking a significant shift in the capital landscape, indicating the rise of "new economy" forces centered around renewable energy and hard technology, challenging traditional consumption and manufacturing sectors [3][11]. Market Performance - On September 25, CATL's A and H shares surged, with A shares reaching a high of 402.59 CNY and H shares peaking at 535.5 HKD, leading to a market capitalization exceeding 1.83 trillion CNY, surpassing Kweichow Moutai's 1.8 trillion CNY [5][6]. - Over a span of nine trading days, CATL's market capitalization increased by approximately 310 billion CNY, with A shares rising over 20% from 325 CNY to above 392 CNY [5][6]. Industry Dynamics - Analysts attribute CATL's stock performance to a combination of market rumors, favorable policies, and solid financial results. Recent reports indicate a significant increase in orders, with a 50% month-on-month surge in September [6][8]. - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have set ambitious targets for new energy storage installations, aiming for over 180 GW by 2027, primarily focusing on lithium-ion battery storage [7]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, CATL reported revenues of 178.89 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 7.27%, and a net profit of 30.49 billion CNY, up 33.33% from the previous year [8]. - Institutional investors have shown strong interest, with 2,589 funds holding a total of 593 million shares, representing 13.47% of the circulating shares [8]. Market Transition - The competition between CATL and Kweichow Moutai reflects a broader economic paradigm shift, with traditional economic models represented by Moutai being challenged by new economic models led by CATL [11][12]. - The rise of technology-driven companies in the market is supported by both national policies and global economic transformations, indicating a potential long-term trend towards a tech-centric market structure [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The market capitalization of CATL has surpassed that of Kweichow Moutai, marking a significant shift in the economic landscape from traditional consumption and manufacturing to new energy and hard technology sectors [1][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - On September 25, CATL's A and H shares surged, with A shares reaching a high of 402.59 CNY and H shares hitting 535.5 HKD, leading to a market cap exceeding 1.83 trillion CNY [2][3]. - In just nine trading days, CATL's market capitalization increased by approximately 310 billion CNY, reflecting a rise of over 20% from 325 CNY to above 392 CNY [2][3]. - As of September 25, CATL's total market capitalization was approximately 1.8066 trillion CNY, slightly above Kweichow Moutai's 1.802 trillion CNY [2]. Group 2: Catalysts for Growth - The strong performance of CATL's stock is attributed to a combination of market rumors, favorable policies, and solid financial results [3]. - Recent reports indicate a significant increase in orders for CATL, with a more than 50% month-on-month surge in September, and a projected net profit of 86 billion CNY by 2026 [3][4]. - Policy support includes the National Development and Reform Commission's plan to achieve a new energy storage capacity of over 180 GW by 2027, primarily using lithium-ion battery technology [4]. Group 3: Institutional Support - CATL is a popular stock among institutional investors, with 2,589 funds holding a total of 593 million shares, representing 13.47% of the circulating shares [5]. - The trend of increasing institutional holdings has been evident, with significant additions to the top shareholders list in 2023 [5]. Group 4: Economic Paradigm Shift - The competition between CATL and Kweichow Moutai symbolizes a broader transition from traditional to new economic paradigms, with CATL representing the new economy focused on technology and sustainability [7]. - The rise of technology-driven companies in the market reflects a global trend where tech firms dominate market capitalizations, as seen in the U.S. and Japan [7][8].

Group 1 - Recent southbound capital flows have shifted away from new consumption, biomedicine, and banking sectors, which were previously favored [1][3] - Despite a slight net outflow from foreign capital in Hong Kong and A-shares, there remains an overall optimistic outlook for the Chinese stock market among foreign investors [1][12] - The investment strategy is leaning towards a "barbell" approach, focusing on dividend-yielding assets and resource sectors while also targeting growth themes like innovative pharmaceuticals and technology [1][10] Group 2 - The banking sector has seen a notable shift to net outflows, contrasting with its previous strong performance, particularly within the CSI 300 index [3][4] - New consumption stocks, such as Pop Mart, have experienced significant valuation increases, but recent trends indicate a correction phase [4][9] - The outlook for the second half of the year suggests potential opportunities in the Hang Seng Technology sector and high-quality traditional enterprises, which are currently undervalued [10][11] Group 3 - Foreign capital remains under-allocated in the Chinese market, with ample room for increased investment, particularly in the context of a low-interest-rate environment [12][13] - The Hong Kong IPO market is witnessing a revival, with 51 companies having raised a total of HKD 124 billion so far this year, indicating strong market sentiment [12][13] - Active IPO activities are generally associated with improved market sentiment, which could positively impact related A-share and Hong Kong-listed companies [13]