鑫新闻 研究所日报 2026 年 01 月 08 日 星期四 1. 截至2025年12月末，我国外汇储备规模为33579亿美元，环比上升115亿美元，再创2015年12月以 来新高；黄金储备规模为7415万盎司，环比增加3万盎司，为连续第14个月增加。点评：我国外汇储 备规模创出2015年末以来的最高值，主要得益于我国贸易差额持续攀升。另外人民银行持有黄金数量 持续攀升，官方储备资产多元化趋势明显。从全球范围看，2022年以来全球央行总体加速购进黄金， 根据wind统计数据，2022年全球央行净购金量1080吨，2023年1050吨，2024年1089吨，系自有数据以 来的全球央行增持黄金最高的三年，此前最高年度为2018年净购金合计656吨，2025年全球央行购金量 环比降低至634吨，虽然环比下降明显，但对比历史数据仍然居于高位。作为央行储备资产之一，黄金 正在不断挤压美元份额。 2. 央行公告，1月8日将开展11000亿元3个月期买断式逆回购操作。点评：1月8日有11000亿元3个月 期买断式逆回购到期，此次操作将实现等量对冲，也是该政策工具连续第三个月等量续作。央行月初 快速回收OMO存量，其规模降至 ...

本文仅供参考，不构成买卖依据，入市风险自担。 与此同时，华夏上证50ETF份额减少5.87亿份，净流出额18.24亿元；华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF份额减少1.99亿份，净流出额9.47亿元；易方达沪深300ETF份额 减少1.49亿份，净流出额6.78亿元。 截至12月31日，当月资金净流入额居前20的ETF名单如下： | | | | | 贸易 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 本月净流入额(亿元) | 总规模(亿元) | 基金管理人简称 | | 159352.OF | 南方中证A500ETF | 257.28 | 480.89 | 南方基金 | | 159600.OF | 嘉实中证AAA科技创新公司债ETF | 226.86 | 436.5 | 营注音等 | | 563360.OF | 华泰柏瑞中证A500ETF | 221.71 | 495.08 | 华泰柏瑞基金 | | 512050.OF | 华夏中证A500ETF | 206.27 | 420.79 | 华夏基金 | | 159112.OF | 银华中证AAA科技创新公司债ETF | 1 ...

Core Viewpoints - The report is optimistic about the A-share market post-New Year, anticipating a "good start" after the holiday due to the rise in Hong Kong stocks and the A50 index [1][2][50] - There is uncertainty regarding the sustainability of the three driving factors behind the recent A-share rally: the A500 ETF's volume and price increase, the strength of optical modules, and the booming commercial aerospace sector [1][2][50] - The mid-term outlook suggests that the market may continue to rise before March, with a general recommendation to be bullish and proactive in investments [1][2][50] Market Overview - The market experienced narrow fluctuations before the New Year, with most broad indices slightly declining; the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.13%, while the CSI 300 and SSE 50 fell by 0.59% and 0.47% respectively [10][48] - The A500 ETF's share increased by only 1.58 billion shares in the last three days before the holiday, a significant drop from the previous week [10][48] - The overall market sentiment indicated a tendency to "rest and prepare for the next battle," as reflected in the low volatility before the holiday [10][48] Sector Observations - The report highlights strong performance in the petrochemical and commercial aerospace sectors, with the oil and petrochemical sector rising by 3.92% and the commercial aerospace sector increasing by 3.05% [13][49] - The report notes a resurgence in interest in robotics and AI applications, with automotive and machinery sectors rising by 1.44% and 1.32% respectively, while consumer sectors like food and beverage saw declines [13][49] Fund Flow Analysis - The latest margin trading balance reached 2.54 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.47% from the previous week, indicating a positive trend in fund inflow [26][48] - The report indicates that the securities ETF saw the highest net inflow of 13.1 billion yuan, while the electronic ETF experienced the largest outflow of 8.9 billion yuan [26][48] Valuation Insights - The dynamic valuation model shows that the current market indices have seen an increase in valuation levels, with the Shanghai Composite Index's PE-TTM at 16.59, placing it in the 91.99 percentile [40][42] - The Shenzhen Component Index's PE-TTM is at 31.24, in the 77.52 percentile, indicating a generally elevated valuation across major indices [40][42]

今年是近几年最好的一年，因为是牛市。 kkqq999 @魔豆 今年炒股，你赚到钱了吗？ 本人手持各种老登和红利，经历一年，终归原点。今天收盘后，账户应该刚好回到年初的市 值。 生命体 不会吧，我分散买的都是高股息的，还踩了万科的雷，也赚了10%多啊。从我连续盈利十几 年的经验来看，买高股息低负债股票不说100%盈利，99%的把握还是有的。 无涯子 你死磕创业板ETF也有一倍的涨幅啊…… 你是马后炮，年初的时候你知道创业板会翻倍吗。 pppppp 赚了，有点少，收益率低于中位数； 以后今年没赚钱的朋友 真得可以试试在大盘指数下跌一段时间后，买入大中小北指数etf； 先用1/3资金，对比自主投资的业绩； 仗剑直言 最近回调，收益还有33W。最高的时候有50W。现在市场中有190W（包含收益） jsfq 今年都赚不到钱的话，也太菜了。 wqzhao01 有这么惨吗？100% 600多万。 说不得2039 前面八个月是赚钱的，总体有个20%左右。后面飘了开始减仓指数基金，集中到很少的几支 上面，三个多月大亏，几乎把之前赚的亏光。 粗略估计，截止目前，今年可能亏损-5到-10%%左右吧。应该是2025年整个集思录里面最 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - Focus on investment strategies in the context of the Chinese consumer market and technology sector, particularly companies like Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi, and the liquor industry. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Investment Goals and Strategies** The fund management aims for a reasonable annualized compound return of 10%-15%, emphasizing both absolute and relative returns. Financial metrics such as ROIC and ROE are used to filter high-quality companies, alongside strict valuation methods. [1][2][3] 2. **Investment Selection Criteria** The approach combines fundamental research with valuation pricing, focusing on "good industry, good company, good price." Industries with stable business models and long life cycles are prioritized, along with companies that play a leading role in the supply chain. [1][5] 3. **Portfolio Allocation** The portfolio is divided into three categories: high volatility offensive, medium volatility stable, and low volatility defensive. This aims to achieve steady growth while reducing volatility through diversified industry styles. [1][6] 4. **Dividend and Low Volatility Stocks** In a low-interest-rate environment, companies with stable dividend yields of 4%-5% are still valuable. Attention is given to companies maintaining financial health during economic downturns, providing a safety margin during recovery phases. [1][7] 5. **Technology Sector Investment Opportunities** The investment focus is on hardware leading to software advancements and business model transformations. Companies like Alibaba are seen as having significant long-term returns due to substantial R&D investments. [1][8] 6. **Comparison of Chinese Consumer Assets** Chinese consumer assets are significantly undervalued compared to global counterparts. For instance, Alibaba's e-commerce profits are compared to Walmart's, highlighting a substantial valuation gap. [3][11] 7. **Investment in Liquor Industry** The liquor industry is characterized by a long life cycle and consistent cash flow, with a recommendation to invest during low points in the cycle for higher returns over two to three years. [3][13] 8. **New vs. Old Consumption** Both old and new consumption sectors have unique growth potentials. The strategy involves balancing investments in stable, traditional companies with innovative, high-growth new companies. [12][19] 9. **Economic Downturn Opportunities** The current economic downturn is seen as a phase where traditional industry leaders may perform well. Companies with strong cash flows and healthy financials are prioritized for investment. [15][18] 10. **Consumer Goods Investment Distinction** The distinction between discretionary and non-discretionary consumer goods is emphasized, with a focus on companies that create emotional value for consumers. [16] 11. **Balanced Allocation Between Consumption Types** The portfolio maintains a balanced allocation between old and new consumption, with a preference for traditional sectors while remaining open to attractive new consumption opportunities. [19] 12. **Risk Management through Diversification** The strategy includes diversifying across industries and styles to lower portfolio volatility and achieve stable growth, particularly in traditional sectors like steel and food and beverage. [20] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The emphasis on the importance of management quality in new consumption companies and the need for in-depth research into their business models. [14][17] - The potential for significant returns from companies that can adapt to changing market conditions and consumer preferences, particularly in the context of AI and technology advancements. [10][8]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huatai Securities indicates that short-term uncertainties persist, leading to a market trend characterized by fluctuations. However, there is a shift towards a balanced "barbell" investment structure due to rapid changes in market focus [1] Group 1: Market Focus - The high cost-performance mainline remains one of the market's focal points, with the AI industry chain's congestion level dropping to its lowest since July. Attention is drawn to low-positioned targets in sectors such as Hang Seng Technology, domestic computing power, AI edge applications, and related fields [1] - There are opportunities for left-side positioning in sectors with performance improvement at low levels, including engineering machinery, textile manufacturing, photovoltaic equipment, general equipment, rail and road, building materials, and certain mass consumer sectors [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Given the impact of domestic and international uncertainties, there are still potential investment opportunities in banks and certain cyclical dividend stocks [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of experienced fund managers who can navigate through bull and bear cycles to generate long-term returns for investors [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Manager Profile - Hu Song, a veteran fund manager with over 20 years in finance and 14 years of investment experience, is highlighted as a rare example of a value investor in the current A-share market [2]. - Under Hu Song's management, the Guotai Jinpeng Blue Chip Fund has achieved a return of 75.63% since September 25, 2020, with an annualized return of 11.87%, outperforming its benchmark and peer average [2][3]. - The Guotai Jinsheng Fund, launched at a market low in February 2024, has seen a performance increase of 50.73% this year, significantly surpassing the performance of the CSI 300 Index [2][3]. Group 2: Investment Philosophy - Hu Song's investment strategy focuses on "margin of safety" and emphasizes the importance of fundamental analysis over mere price observation [3][4]. - He employs a bottom-up stock selection approach while also considering macroeconomic factors, adjusting the investment portfolio based on fundamental changes [3][4]. - The selection criteria include a preference for stocks with sustainable competitive advantages and reasonable valuations, particularly those with high Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) [4]. Group 3: Risk Management and Performance - Hu Song prioritizes risk-return balance and actively manages drawdown control through diversified industry allocation and dynamic adjustments [5][6]. - The Guotai Jinpeng Blue Chip Fund has achieved nearly 60% positive returns over the past three years, with a maximum drawdown significantly lower than the peer average [6][7]. - The fund's top ten holdings are diversified across various sectors, with no single holding exceeding 8% of the total portfolio, reflecting a balanced investment style [7][8]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Hu Song remains optimistic about the market, citing structural transformations at the economic cycle's bottom and positive developments in the technology sector [9]. - He identifies potential growth areas in AI, new energy, industrial metals, and technology sectors, while also acknowledging the risks associated with trade and geopolitical uncertainties [9]. - The article suggests that investors may benefit from selecting experienced fund managers like Hu Song, who can navigate market fluctuations effectively [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of experienced fund managers who can navigate through bull and bear cycles to create long-term returns for investors [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Manager Profile - Hu Song, a veteran fund manager with over 20 years in finance and 14 years of investment experience, is highlighted as a rare example of a value investor in the current A-share market [2]. - Under Hu Song's management, the Guotai Jinpeng Blue Chip Fund has achieved a return of 75.63% since September 25, 2020, with an annualized return of 11.87%, outperforming its benchmark and peer average [2][3]. Group 2: Fund Performance - The Guotai Jinsheng Fund, launched at a market low in February 2024, has seen a performance increase of 50.73% this year, surpassing the CSI 300 Index and its benchmark [2][3]. - The Guotai Jinpeng Blue Chip Fund has delivered nearly 60% positive returns over the past three years, ranking in the top 10% among peers, with a maximum drawdown significantly lower than the average [6][7]. Group 3: Investment Philosophy - Hu Song's investment strategy focuses on fundamental analysis, emphasizing the importance of a company's competitive advantages and reasonable valuations [4][5]. - The principle of "margin of safety" guides Hu Song's investment decisions, favoring growth stocks that can create long-term value [5][6]. Group 4: Risk Management - Hu Song employs a balanced approach to risk and return, actively managing drawdowns and diversifying across industries to mitigate market volatility [6][9]. - The investment portfolio is dynamically adjusted based on macroeconomic conditions and individual stock performance, ensuring a robust response to market changes [4][9]. Group 5: Market Outlook - Hu Song remains optimistic about sectors such as AI, new energy, industrial metals, and technology, citing favorable domestic and international economic conditions [8][9]. - The article notes that despite challenges in the real estate and consumer sectors, there are structural highlights in emerging industries that could present investment opportunities [8][9].

Core Insights - The central viewpoint of the article indicates that the central bank's third-quarter monetary policy report suggests a policy combination of "stable total volume and structural strength," which implies a need to moderately lower expectations for significant short-term monetary policy easing, leading to a relatively calm period for policies, data, and external environments in the near term, with the market likely to continue fluctuating [1][2][5] Monetary Policy - The central bank emphasizes a scientific approach to financial total indicators, aligning social financing scale and money supply growth with nominal economic growth, while acknowledging that a slightly lower loan growth rate is reasonable [2] - The report highlights the ongoing transformation of the monetary policy adjustment framework, focusing more on price-based regulation and enhancing the linkage between interest rate adjustments on banks' assets and liabilities, thereby supporting banks in stabilizing net interest margins and broadening the counter-cyclical adjustment space for monetary policy [2] Market Performance - As of November 11, 2025, the Hang Seng Tech Total Return Index has seen a cumulative increase of 33.88% this year, while the defensive Hang Seng High Dividend Index has outperformed the tech index, with a cumulative increase of 33.07% [3][5] - The maximum drawdown for the Hang Seng High Dividend Index is only 13.56%, compared to a maximum drawdown of 30.5% for the Hang Seng Tech Index, indicating a significantly better holding experience for high dividend stocks [3][5] Investment Strategy - Given the negative correlation observed between the Hang Seng Tech and high dividend stocks since October, investors in tech stocks may consider maintaining a focus on dividend stocks to reduce portfolio volatility [3][5] - The article suggests that in the context of the global AI investment phase and the high valuations in the stock market, dividend assets may continue to outperform tech stocks for a period [5]

Group 1 - On November 12, the stock ETF saw a net inflow of 91.6 billion yuan, bringing the total scale to 4.64 trillion yuan [3][4] - The inflow was primarily driven by industry themes related to securities, chemicals, and insurance, while broad-based ETFs like the SSE 50 ETF and ChiNext 50 ETF experienced significant outflows [4][5] - The top inflow ETFs included the Sci-Tech 50 ETF with 18.45 billion yuan and the securities insurance ETF with 4.26 billion yuan [3][4] Group 2 - The recent market performance showed a slight decline in major indices, with sectors like insurance, pharmaceuticals, and oil & gas performing well, while sectors such as cultivated diamonds and photovoltaic faced declines [3] - The inflow into Hong Kong market-related ETFs was notable, with a net inflow of 18 billion yuan, contributing to a scale increase of 62.14 billion yuan [3] - Fund companies like E Fund and Huaxia Fund reported significant inflows, with E Fund's ETF scale increasing by 224.4 billion yuan this year [3][4] Group 3 - The outlook for the market suggests a rapid rotation of hotspots, with a focus on AI hardware and new economic sectors driving potential recovery [6] - The ongoing state-owned enterprise reforms are expected to lead to valuation restructuring, benefiting dividend strategies in a low-interest-rate environment [6]