2026.01.08 本文字数：2123，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 |第一财经 樊志菁 作为今年首个重磅经济数据，随着本周五去年12月非农报告的揭晓，投资者将结束假日模式正式迎接 2026年新行情。数据显示，年末美国就业市场出现部分回暖，但并未完全摆脱困境。联邦基金利率期货 定价显示，今年美联储首次降息节点指向二季度，如果非农不及市场预期，美联储或将选择提前下调利 率稳定经济。 数据喜忧参半 美国自动数据处理公司（ADP）发布的数据显示，2025年最后一个月，美国企业新增就业岗位4.1万 个，疲软的劳动力市场在步入新一年之际出现小幅改善。虽然岗位止跌回升，数据依然不及机构预期的 新增4.8万。与此同时，招聘放缓的影响还体现在员工薪资议价能力的下降上。留任员工的薪资同比涨 幅为4.4%，与疫情以来的最低水平持平。而在几年前，这一同比涨幅曾一度飙升至7.8%的高位。 值得注意的是，新增岗位高度集中于少数几个领域，主要是医疗保健机构、餐饮及酒店行业。这种就业 增长缺乏行业普遍性的现象，凸显出过去一年间美国劳动力市场的疲软程度。 就业市场的景气程度是美联储权衡今年是否再次降息的最大考量因素。自2025年春季以来，美国 ...

就业市场的景气程度是美联储权衡今年是否再次降息的最大考量因素。自2025年春季以来，美国企业招 聘步伐已大幅放缓，就业人数甚至出现了疫情以来的首次下降。最新ADP报告表明，劳动力市场的恶化 态势或已有所缓解 ——过去三个月中，有两个月的就业人数实现增长。 去年夏季以来，裁员规模维持低位本是积极信号，但另一方面，绝大多数企业都已暂停扩招。经济学家 将这种现象称为 "低招聘、低裁员"的劳动力市场格局。目前尚无明显迹象表明，企业招聘将出现大幅 回升。作为全美最大的薪资处理机构，ADP首席经济学家理查森（Nera Richardson）表示："当前就业 市场仍有一定新增岗位，且裁员规模并未扩大，但整体来看，就业市场仍在寻找企稳的支点。" 通常情况下，ADP就业报告仅被视为美国劳动力市场的二线参考指标；但由于此前数月美国政府停摆导 致官方非农就业报告发布延迟，ADP 报告的重要性有所提升。 美国劳工部当天公布的月度职位空缺与劳动力流动调查报告（JOLTS）显示，去年11月美国职位空缺数 与雇佣人数双双下降。职位空缺数从10月的近750万个降至约710万个，职位空缺率也从一个月前的 4.5%回落至4.3%。雇佣市场同样出 ...

来源：滚动播报 美联储古尔斯比：低招聘、低裁员带来的不确定性多于经济放缓。 ...

Group 1 - A report from UBS indicates a significant rise in layoffs, with 760,000 annual job cuts and 157,000 jobs lost in October alone, marking the highest monthly figure since the 2009 financial crisis [1][4] - The technology and warehousing sectors are experiencing the most severe impacts, with automation and AI leading to the disappearance of traditional jobs [6][8] - Major companies are making substantial layoffs, including Amazon cutting 14,000 positions and UPS laying off 48,000 employees over the past year, reflecting a deteriorating market environment [6][8] Group 2 - The number of WARN notifications, which are legally required notices before layoffs, has surged, indicating that many layoffs are strategic rather than temporary decisions [8] - Current job loss rates have reached levels comparable to or exceeding those before the pandemic, contradicting previous beliefs about low layoffs [8][10] - The private sector is seeing an average monthly job loss of 36,000 positions, with the overall unemployment rate rising to its highest point since 2021 [10][14] Group 3 - Over 800,000 individuals have exited the labor market, yet many still wish to work, highlighting a mismatch between available jobs and suitable employment opportunities [12][14] - Job vacancy data shows a decline, with Indeed.com reporting the lowest number of job postings since 2021, suggesting that many advertised positions may not reflect genuine hiring intentions [12][14] - The U-6 unemployment rate, which includes those working part-time for economic reasons, has risen to 8.1%, indicating a growing issue of underemployment [14] Group 4 - Consumer confidence has been severely impacted, with the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index dropping to 50.3, close to historical lows [18] - The holiday hiring outlook is bleak, with only 400,000 seasonal jobs announced in September and October, significantly lower than pre-pandemic averages [16][18] - Small businesses are struggling under inflation and labor market instability, leading to a lack of hiring and production expansion [20] Group 5 - Disagreements within the Federal Reserve are increasing regarding the state of the labor market, with some officials now questioning the previously held belief of a "low layoff" environment [22][23] - UBS warns that if layoffs continue and hiring slows, the labor market will face a more pronounced contraction, which could adversely affect consumer spending and overall economic recovery [25][27] - The stability of the labor market is crucial for economic recovery, and any disruption could lead to unforeseen consequences for the broader economy [27]

Core Viewpoint - The President of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, Daly, indicates that the economy is currently experiencing a period of low layoffs and low hiring [1] Group 1 - The current economic environment is characterized by low levels of layoffs [1] - There is also a notable decrease in hiring activities within the labor market [1]